#mick ryan

“Russian authorities stepped up security in Moscow and issued an arrest warrant for Yevgeny Prigozhin, the owner of the Wagner paramilitary group, on charges of mutiny after he called on his troops to oust the country's military leadership.

(…)

As Russian soldiers in armored personnel carriers secured key installations in Moscow, leading Russian military commanders who had worked with Wagner urged the group's fighters to stop before it was too late. "The last thing we need is to unleash a real civil war inside the country. Come back to your senses," urged Lt. Gen. Vladimir Alekseyev, the deputy chief of Russian military intelligence.

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"The evil that the military leadership of the country brings forward must be stopped. They have forgotten the word justice, and we will return it," Prigozhin said in an audio recording posted on Wagner's social media Friday. "Anyone attempting resistance will be considered a threat and immediately destroyed. This includes all the checkpoints on our path and any aircraft above our heads."

Friday's events showed the depth of political crisis inside Russia after 16 months of grueling war marked by a series of military setbacks. Pressure is rising on Putin to squelch any threat that Prigozhin now poses to his power, and to Russia's ability to continue waging the war. Putin, so far, hasn't made any public statements about the drama unfolding in Russia.

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For the past several months, Prigozhin has been focusing his vitriol on Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Armed Forces Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov. Earlier on Friday, he accused Shoigu of leading Russia into war in Ukraine on a false narrative in order to get awards and a promotion in rank.

Gen. Sergei Surovikin, the former commander of Russian troops in Ukraine who, unlike Shoigu and Gerasimov, has been repeatedly praised by Prigozhin, made a late-night video appeal asking Wagner's troops not to obey the group's owner.

"Whatever your intentions are at the moment, as valiant as somebody told you they may be, this is a stab in the back both for the country and the president," he said. "This is a military coup."

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In Friday's recordings, Prigozhin said that he has 25,000 men under arms but also considers the entire army, and the entire Russian society, his strategic reserve.Russian commentators reacted to this turn of events with shock.

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Earlier in the day, Prigozhin said Shoigu lied to Russians and to Putin when he told a "story about the crazy aggression from the Ukrainian side and the plans to attack us with the entire NATO bloc." In an implied criticism of Putin, he added that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky would have agreed to a deal if the Kremlin had deigned to negotiate.”

“Vladimir Putin has vowed to crush an armed insurrection led by the warlord Yevgeny Prigozhin, describing the rebel militia making their way towards Moscow as a treasonous “stab in the back”.

The Russian president labelled the first coup attempt in three decades as a “deadly threat to our statehood” and compared it with the 1917 revolution that led to the collapse of imperial Russia.

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Russian military helicopters fired on a convoy of Wagner troops and armoured vehicles, including tanks, rumbling north along a highway towards the capital, according to unverified videos published on social media.

The convoy, which also appears to contain mobile air defence systems, advanced steadily from Rostov towards Moscow despite “combat operations” by regular armed forces, and in the early evening of Saturday was abound 350km from the capital’s outer ring road, where Russian troops have set up checkpoints.

If the convoy is able to advance without hindrance, they could reach Moscow before midnight local time.

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The insurgency is the most serious threat to Putin’s decades-long rule, and comes after months of public infighting between Prigozhin and the country’s armed forces.

“Prigozhin’s mutiny is the greatest challenge to date of the rule of Vladimir Putin,” said Andrius Tursa, eastern Europe analyst at Teneo. “Even if the mutiny fails, the crisis events will only exacerbate perceptions of the regime’s weakness.”

Wagner’s rapid advance sparked an emergency call between G7 nations who agreed “to co-ordinate closely”, and enhanced security measures in Nato countries bordering Russia, which possesses one of the world’s largest nuclear arsenals.

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In Kyiv, the crisis was a “window of opportunity” for its forces to push ahead with a counter-offensive to liberate territory occupied by Russian troops, said Hanna Maliar, Ukraine’s deputy defence minister. She added that the decision to invade Ukraine had triggered “the inevitable degradation of the Russian state”.

Putin’s pledge on Saturday to crush the attempted coup came hours after Prigozhin announced he had “blockaded” Rostov and the headquarters of Russia’s military command centre, responsible for Ukraine operations, as armed, masked men with tanks and armoured vehicles surrounded government buildings.

Putin’s grave address, which did not mention Prigozhin by name but accused his organisation of “blackmail and terrorist methods”, suggests the president has left no room for compromise with his former acolyte. “What we are dealing with is treason. Unchecked ambitions and personal interests have brought about betrayal of our country and our people,” Putin said.

Prigozhin issued a defiant response, saying his Wagner force no longer wanted to live “under corruption, lies, and bureaucracy”.

Sixteen months of war against Ukraine has hamstrung Russia’s economy because of a barrage of western sanctions and an exodus of foreign capital. The conflict has cost tens of thousands of lives and created a dangerous patchwork of competing militias and security forces.

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The extraordinary decision to launch a motorised assault on Moscow was part of what Prigozhin said was a “march of justice” against defence minister Sergei Shoigu and Valery Gerasimov, commander of Russia’s invasion forces, whom he has accused of mishandling the Ukraine invasion.

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Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine’s president, said the events had laid bare “Russia’s weakness”.

“The longer Russia keeps its troops and mercenaries on our land, the more chaos, pain and problems it will have for itself later,” he tweeted. “Everyone who chooses the path of evil destroys himself.””

“Russian dictator Vladimir Putin's plane left Moscow on the afternoon of June 24 amid an ongoing rebellion led by PMC Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Belarusian Hajun monitoring project said on Telegram on June 24, citing data from the Flightradar24 service.

The Russian government’s Il-96−300PU aircraft took off from Vnukovo Airport at 14:16 local time and headed for Valdai, one of Putin’s residences, it said.

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The plane reportedly disappeared from radars near the Russian city of Tver (about 150 kilometers from Valdai), the independent Russian website Important Stories (IStories) said on Telegram on June 24. The media outlet claims that the plane is “equipped to control the armed forces.”

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The Ukrainian online publication Ukrainska Pravda cites an unnamed source in the Ukrainian special services who states that “Putin is leaving Moscow, he is being taken to Valdai.”

The Insider, a Russian investigative journalism project, also writes that as of 3 p.m. local time, another Russian special forces aircraft had landed in St. Petersburg.

The independent news outlet Mozhem Obyasnit, in turn, reports that Russian officials are fleeing from Moscow on business jets – at least three flights served by the Special Flight Unit “Rossiya” of the Russian President’s Administration have already departed for St. Petersburg.”

“Dmitri Alperovitch, founder of the Washington, D.C.-based think tank Silverado Policy Accelerator, shot down suggestions that the conflict would result in the development of a new Russian civil war, predicting in a series of tweets that Prigozhin's forces would quickly be defeated.

"No, this is not likely to turn into a civil war," Alperovitch tweeted. "It is what in Russia is called 'razborki' (gangland warfare) And it looks like one gang is about to get totally crushed because the other has all the weapons and the security services on their side."

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In additional tweets, Alperovitch suggested that Prigozhin "might not survive the weekend" due to his declaration of war, while commenting that "this show is very entertaining but unfortunately it might be a very short one."”

“Mick Ryan, a retired major general in the Australian military and fellow for the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told Insider that while exactly what is happening on the ground in Russia remains unclear, "this is the kind of thing where no one wins — everyone loses something."

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"Prigozhin is likely to be the biggest loser," Ryan told Insider. "But Putin and his inner circle will look like they don't have their hands on all the levers of power in a way that some Russian elites would expect them to. And the Russian army will be looking forward at the Ukrainians attacking them and looking behind themselves and their nation, seemingly in chaos — whether that's a reality or not — and it will cause deep disquiet among senior Russian leaders."

Ryan said the deep unease felt by Russian troops after hearing a regime-affiliated official disparage military leadership could be used to Ukraine's advantage as they continue to fend off Russian attacks.

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At the beginning of 1915, the war on the Western Front had reached a stalemate. There were technical, strategic and doctrinal reasons for this. The machine gun changed tactics and killed soldiers by the hundreds, as did more accurate and concentrated artillery. Poor communications hampered the co-ordination of the different elements of the massive armies. A lack of protected mobility meant that even when a breach was made in enemy lines, the enemy could more quickly fill the gap than the attacker could exploit it.

Recently, this has become the analogy of choice for some writing about the war in Ukraine. Articles in publications from in the United States, Britain and beyond have all touted theories of the current “stalemate in Ukraine”. It makes for good headlines, but there is one problem: it just isn’t true.

The Collins dictionary defines stalemate as a “deadlock, draw, impasse … a situation in which neither side in an argument or contest can win or in which no progress is possible”. War is a complex tableau of military, diplomatic, technological, economic and societal endeavours. Therefore, a stalemate in war implies a situation of geographic, economic, military and intellectual stasis. This is not the case in Ukraine. Both sides in the conflict, and their supporters, have an enormous range of tactical and strategic options available to them in 2023.

What we are seeing instead is the normal ebb and flow of a long war being fought by well-resourced countries with external sources of support. After the initial burst of activity where each side seeks large, hard blows against the adversary to hopefully compel them to concede quickly, most wars settle into a cycle of pulses and pauses.

The most recent pulse, with the Ukrainian offensives in Kharkiv and Kherson, saw huge amounts of territory returned to Ukraine through the courage and innovation of its military forces, and the military, intelligence and technical support of the West. These offensives provided a boost to the morale of the Ukrainian people. They also reinforced that the Ukrainians are quite capable of defeating the Russians.

Importantly, the offensives also resulted in a lower tempo of operations. Humans, even well motivated ones, need a break from operations to reflect, reinforce and relax before the fighting begins again. This is the low ebb of the cycle of war that we are seeing right now.

It is a very long way from a stalemate. There is a huge amount of activity being conducted even in this low tempo phase. Most of it remains invisible to the layman because it is not as exciting to report or because it is hidden by operational security and the normal fog of war.

The Battle of Bakhmut is draining away Russian and Ukrainian lives. Over the past several months, the Russian Army and the mercenary Wagner Group have competed to hurl tens of thousands of Russian soldiers against Ukrainian defensive lines which have been developed and improved since 2014. The town of Bakhmut has no strategic importance beyond its propaganda value for a Russian Army that has had no battlefield victories since the early days of this war. Yet, the fighting there is as bitter as any in this war and is resulting in mass casualties that few armies can sustain.

To the north, the Ukrainian Army presses on with its methodical advance towards the Kreminna-Svatove-Starobilsk triangle. Unlike the battle to the south, this offensive will have important strategic outcomes if the Ukrainians succeed. Within these towns are key transport and logistic support hubs for the Russian Army in Luhansk Oblast. If Ukraine secures this critical triangle of cities, the Russian position in Luhansk is probably untenable, and its forces in Donetsk will be forced into a dilemma about how to orientate their troops.

There is much more occurring that we don’t see directly. Tactical reconnaissance on the ground, in cyberspace and in the air is occurring across the entire front, seeking weaknesses to exploit in the offensives to come. Training and equipping of new troops and formations is occurring – quickly - for these future offensives. Once trained, these formations are being deployed behind the lines and being readied to join the more experienced forces who are defending, scouting and preparing to advance. And changes in command are being made in preparation for attacks in the northern spring, such as the appointment of the Russian general Valery Gerasimov last week.

The strategic fight also rages unabated. Russian missile and drone attacks continue to cause the death of civilians and impact on power supplies, as they did again over the past weekend. The Russians probably have sufficient drones and precision missiles and rockets for several large-scale attacks on Ukraine each month. At the same time, both Ukraine and Russia continue to be energetic in the conduct of information operations in their own nations and beyond, seeking to retain the support of their partners and allies.

So, while we may not be witnessing the rapid advances of late 2022, there is still much activity going on in Ukraine. More importantly, both sides retain the military, economic and intellectual potential to innovate and act in creative ways to win battles and drain the resources of their adversary.

By no means are the main belligerents or their supporters yet in a position where “neither side in an argument or contest can win or in which no progress is possible”.

Photographing the Peak District in autumn – in pictures

Offensive Weapons, Counter-Offensives and the Issue of Escalation

5 May 2022

1.

Having launched a fresh offensive in Ukraine’s Eastern Front since late April, Russian forces appear to gained further ground moving beyond what was ‘seized’ since 2014. US intelligence forces report that the Russian goal is to annex as much of eastern Ukraine as possible.

Moscow also seeks, it seems, to keep Kyiv and NATO off-balance by false flag operations in Transnistria, Moldova - diverting attention and resources as well as articulating a maximalist, southern Ukraine war aim extending through Odesa and Moldova thus removing Ukraine’s access to a port.

2.

Kyiv’s ability to respond and even push-back, right now, is in transition. Once the Ukrainian forces receive, and can effectively use, the accelerating volume of NATO-provided, longer-range weaponry from artillery, drones, tanks and the like, counter-offensives will occur in earnest, Their likely success in reversing Russian gains since February is an open question especially in places like Kherson where Russian administrations are now bedding-down including incorporation of the region into the ruble-currency zone.

Mick Ryan, an Australian strategist and former general has analysed the issue of prospective Ukrainian counter-offensives.

Source: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-03/war-ukraine-russia-donbas-nuclear-china-diplomacy-west-strategy/101030510

3.

The question of escalation has been present from the start of Russia’s invasion especially in relation to nuclear weapons use and proliferation. But now the transformation of Ukraine’s conventional force structure raises issues of limiting escalation. For example, it appears Kyiv’s forces have launched attacks into southern Russia to disrupt supply lines and in a spirit of ‘karma’ (and/or revenge) as one official put it. Despite their undoubted value in diverting Russian forces and resources - how far should these go?

US figures have spoken of weakening Russian capacities to intervene for the longer-term: Is this a valid war aim, and if so, how far should it also go? Any weakened, partly or fully defeated Russia is a dangerous state - as Mick Ryan notes. This is only highlighted by Moscow’s astonishing verbal gymnastics to defend the goal of de-nazification in Ukraine including a kind of pre-1945 racial profiling of Jewry as self-hating anti-semites. Longstanding elite ‘views’ or stereotypes in Russia (recently articulated by Dimitri Medvedev, no less), maintain, according to Jason Stanley, that:

Russian Christians are targets of a conspiracy by a global elite, who, using the vocabulary of liberal democracy and human rights, attack the Christian faith and the Russian nation.

Source: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/25/vladimir-putin-ukraine-attack-antisemitism-denazify

A defeated Russia, then, remains dangerous.

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Comment:

Big Moor

From late September until November, red deer stags rut for the attention of the hinds on Big Moor. Some say the roaring and grunting of the stags can be heard as far as way as Sheffield.

Photographing the Peak District in autumn – in pictures 

Calver Bridge

Autumn reflections under Calver bridge near Calver weir and village. The river Derwent has always been important in the Peak District: in its upper reaches the river feeds agricultural land and used to power flour mills. In its lower reaches, near Matlock, it powered Arkwright’s cotton mills at the start of the Industrial Revolution. There is a pleasant walk along the river at Calver on a flat well-maintained path and it is at its best in October.

The recent tender by the Department of Defence for drones designed and manufactured in Australia seeks to exploit the transformational nature of drones in warfare. It also highlights that Australia has much to learn about drones from the war in Ukraine. The short war between Armenia and Azerbaijan in 2020 was a harbinger of what was to occur in Ukraine. In a 44-day conflict, the Azerbaijan…