MCC 19: Statistical Analysis
and now, ladies/gentlemen/cool people, the moment you've all been waiting for: the statistics!!
ALL the stats here are courtesy of @ultrasheeplord on twitter, and their mcc teambuilder spreadsheet.
i'm going to be going over who has the most likely chance of winning with different types of game orders (obviously i can't run every game order, so i will be generalizing games to their categories for the most part to make it easier!) i'm also going to be looking at dodgebolt statistics, comparing team statistics, and giving you all a NEW predictions list fully based on the statistics!
Coin Averages
Red Rabbits: 9,290
Ginger Breadmen: 9,045
Yellow Yetis: 9,286
Mint Mistletoes: 7,619
Emerald Elves: 9,053
Teal Turkeys: 9,764
Cerulean Candy Canes: 9,264
Sapphire Santas: 4,051
Purple Penguins: 7,973
Pink Presents: 8,075
the highest coin average is teal's, and teal also has a high chance of winning dodgebolt.
with all three PvP games being played and build mart being skipped, and with the PvP games concentrated in the latter half of the event, we get a Teal v Emerald dodgebolt.
if build mart is played as the finale game with all three PvP games, we get a Teal v Red dodgebolt.
if only two PvP games are played with a build mart finale, we get a Ginger v Emerald dodgebolt. if the same is done with a grid runners finale, we get a Teal v Emerald dodgebolt (again).
if all three PvP games are played late, we have a Teal v Red dodgebolt. with all three PvP games played early and a SoT finale, we get a Ginger v Teal dodgebolt.
with all three movement games played late and all three PvP games included, we have another Teal v Emerald dodgebolt.
you might start to see a pattern here- when there's a high emphasis on PvP games especially, but also on movement games, Teal almost always makes it to dodgebolt. if team synergy games are the finale, the teams that make it to dodgebolt are Teal and Red.
most of the time, Teal makes it to dodgebolt or is rightttt on the cusp of being able to. the teams that consistently end up in the top two are Red, Ginger, Emerald and Teal. so, without further ado, the upgraded, stats-based prediction:
Teal Turkeys
Emerald Elves
Ginger Breadmen
Red Rabbits
Yellow Yetis
Pink Presents
Purple Penguins
Cerulean Candy Canes
Mint Mistletoes
Sapphire Santas
we'll see if this prediction holds up tomorrow, but most likely we'll see teal winning the event and winning dodgebolt!! i am out for a portion of the event tomorrow, but i will watch everything i missed as soon as i get home and post my thoughts later into the evening. hope you all have a good day and have loads of fun watching the event! :D
EDIT 12/12: i totally forgot to include who i used as an equivalent for slimecicle and awesamdude, who were both new to the event! i used quackity (the reddit standard) for slimecicle, since i didn't know anything about his playstyle, and i used antfrost in place of sam, since both of them are hunters.
