In an interview with Reuters on Monday, Singaporeâs minister for foreign affairs, Dr. Vivian Balakrishnan, put in bald language the change in the world order instigated by President Donald J. Trump.
âFor 80 years,â Balakrishnan explained, âthe US was the underwriter for a system of globalisation based on UN Charter principles, multilateralism, territorial integrity, sovereign equality.â That system âheralded an unprecedented and unique period of global prosperity and peace. Of course there were exceptions. And of course, the Cold War was still in effect for at least half of the last 80 years. But generally, for those of us who were non-communists, who ran open economies, who provided first world infrastructure, together with a hardworking disciplined people, we had unprecedented opportunities.
âThe story of Singapore, with a per capita GDP of 500 US dollars in 1965. Now, [it is] somewhere between 80,000 to 90,000 US dollars. It would not have happened if it had not been for this unprecedented period, basically Pax Americana and then turbocharged by the reform and opening of China for decades. It has been unprecedented. It has been great for many of us. In fact, I will say, for all of us, if you look back 80 years.
âBut now, whether you like it or not, objectively, this period has endedâŚ. Basically, the underwriter of this world order has now become a revisionist power, and some people would even say a disruptor. But the larger point is that the erosion of norms, processes, and institutions that underpinned a remarkable period of peace and prosperity; that foundation has gone.â
In its place, as scholar of authoritarianism Timothy Snyder said to me in a YouTube conversation yesterday, Trump is aligning himself with international oligarchs like Russiaâs Vladimir Putin, Hungaryâs Viktor OrbĂĄn, Saudi Arabiaâs Mohammad bin Salman (MBS), and Chinaâs Xi Jinping. Because of his position as the president of the United States of America, this means he is aligning the United States of America with this oligarchical axis as well, abandoning the countryâs democratic principles and traditional allies.
On February 28, Michael Birnbaum, John Hudson, Karen DeYoung, Natalie Allison, and Souad Mekhennet of the Washington Post reported that Trump initially launched the strikes on Iran at the urging of MBS and Israelâs prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, despite the assessment of U.S. intelligence that Iran did not pose an imminent threat to the U.S. and would not for at least a decade. Both countries see Iran as a threat to their power and want it weakened. Netanyahu has been eager to get rid of the Iranian regime for decades and has urged previous U.S. presidents to attack without success.
On Tuesday, March 24, Julian E. Barnes, Tyler Pager, and Eric Schmitt of the New York Times reported that MBS sees a âhistoric opportunityâ to remake the Middle East and so has been pushing Trump to continue his war against Iran. MBS, the journalists report, has urged Trump to use troops to seize Iranâs energy infrastructure and drive the regime out of power. He has assured Trump that the jump in oil prices will be temporary, although most observers disagree.
Judd Legum of Popular Information notes that the Saudi Public Investment Fund (PIF) controlled by MBS invested $2 billion in the private equity firm of Trumpâs son-in-law Jared Kushner, one of Trumpâs volunteer Iran negotiators, before the war. A report by Democrats on the Senate Finance Committee and House Oversight Committee released on March 19 says that âsince 2021, Mr. Kushner has collected more than $110 million from the government of Saudi Arabia for investment management services that have reaped little to no return.â
The fallout from the Iran war has also benefited Russiaâs Vladimir Putin. Despite reports that Russia is aiding Iran in the fight, the Trump administration dropped sanctions on Russian oil that was already at sea, giving Russia an injection of up to $10 billion a month into its cash-strapped war effort against Ukraine.
Today Trump reposted Russian propaganda claiming that Ukraine discussed funneling money to Bidenâs reelection campaign. Also today, four Russian lawmakers arrived in Washington, D.C., for the first such visit since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 to talk with lawmakers and officials, âpart of the normalization of relations with the United States of America,â as one of the Russians told the Russian press.
Trump declared he was determined to achieve peace between Russia and Ukraine, but this week, according to Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelensky, administration officials said the U.S. would not guarantee Ukraineâs security unless Ukraine withdraws from its own land in Donbas. Ceding the region to Russia would essentially give Putin what he launched the war to grab. It is the same region that was at stake in 2016, when Russian operatives told Trumpâs 2016 campaign manager they would help Trumpâs presidential candidacy if he would look the other way as Putin installed a puppet over the region.
This afternoon, Noah Robertson and Ellen Francis of the Washington Post reported that the Pentagon is considering diverting weapons intended for Ukraine to the Middle East. They also noted that on Monday, Pentagon officials told Congress that it was going to divert about $750 million in funding provided by NATO countries for Ukraine to restock military weapons in the U.S. instead. About allocating weapons, Trump told the reporters, âwe do that all the time. We have them in other countries, like in Germany and all over Europe. Sometimes we take from one and we use for another.â
Last week, the U.S. eased sanctions on banks in Russiaâs ally Belarus, and today Trump announced he would ease further sanctions on Belarus to try to get fertilizer into the U.S. since Iranâs closure of the Strait of Hormuz has stopped the transportation of about 20% of the worldâs fertilizer. Also today, Belarusâs president Alexander Lukashenko signed a treaty with another of Putinâs allies, North Koreaâs president Kim Jong Un, announcing a âfundamentally new stageâ of the relationship between the two countries as they âoppose undue pressure on Belarus from the West.â Both Belarus and North Korea support Russia in its war on Ukraine.
Trump has openly endorsed OrbĂĄn for reelection in Hungaryâs April 12 elections, posting on social media yesterday: âRelations between Hungary and the United States have reached new heights of cooperation and spectacular achievement under my Administration, thanks largely to Prime Minister OrbĂĄn. I look forward to continuing working closely with him so that both of our Countries can further advance this tremendous path to SUCCESS and cooperation.â Urging Hungarians to vote for OrbĂĄn, Trump continued: âHe is a true friend, fighter, and WINNER, and has my Complete and Total Endorsement.⌠I AM WITH HIM ALL THE WAY!â
The framers of the Constitution tried to set up a system that would make it impossible for a president to go to war for private interests or the benefit of other countries, establishing that Congress alone can declare war. The framers wanted the American people to weigh in on whether they wanted to dedicate their lives and their fortunes to a war.
But Trump simply began the Iran war without consultation with Congress, and administration officials have refused to appear at hearings, instead briefing Congress behind closed doors. At an annual fundraising dinner for Republican members of Congress, Trump appeared to acknowledge he was violating the Constitution. He spoke of the âtremendous successâ of what he called his âmilitary operationâ in Iran. He continued: âI wonât use the word war âcause they say if you use the word war, thatâs maybe not a good thing to do. They donât like the word war because you are supposed to get approval. So I will use the word military operation.â
Now, as the war costs at least $1 billion a day and Trumpâs declarations fluctuate wildly from saying the war is over to suggesting he is considering deploying ground troops to posting this morning that Iranian negotiators âbetter get serious soon, before it is too late, because once that happens, there is NO TURNING BACK, and it wonât be pretty!â even Republicans are starting to have misgivings. The war has pushed Trumpâs approval rating down to just 36%, while a new Reuters poll shows that only 25% of Americans approve of how Trump is handling the cost of living. Today the stock market, which has generally trended downward since the invasion, dropped sharply as traders apparently recognized that the cost of oil is not coming down anytime soon.
Yesterday, after a classified briefing, House Armed Services Committee chair Mike Rogers (R-AL), who backed the Iran strikes, told reporters that Congress members âwant to know more about whatâs going on, what the options are, and why theyâre being considered,â adding, âAnd weâre just not getting enough answers on those questions.â Chair of the Senate Armed Services Committee Roger Wicker (R-MS) commented: âI can see why he might have said that.â
In an in-depth interview with Hunter Walker and Josh Kovensky of Talking Points Memo yesterday, Representative Joe Morelle (D-NY), who sits on the House Appropriations Committee, explained how Trumpâs Iran incursion has become a âmessâ for the president. The administration has suggested it is going to ask for $200 billion for the war, and Morelle noted that we are already closing in on $30 billion in spending on it and thatâwhen you consider all the things that Trump rejects or the Republicans reject as too costly, the fact that they have now spent $30 billion in effectively the span of a month without even talking to Congress about this expenditure is really somewhat staggering.â
Morelle noted that even if the White House or the Pentagon did start to provide specifics, âIâm not sure it would matter anyway because the president changes his mind so frequently. He might say something and literally without exaggeration, a half hour later say something completely different, or even sometimes within the same press conference, give two wildly different answers.â
Morelle told Walker and Kovensky: âThey fight us on things that will help American families be able to pursue dreams, take care of the food, housing, and healthcare needs of millions of families that they canât affordââprecisely the things that, as Minister Balakrishnan noted, the postâWorld War II international order enabled people around the world to attain. âBut,â Morelle said, âthey can go into an ill-conceived military action that has neither the support of Congress nor the support of American families, which has no clear objectives, shifting goals, and has alienated our allies and made us less safe.â