I recently revisited my post on Fred Wilsonâs presentation at Le Web. I ended up rewatching the presentation, and took some notes.
The three mega trends that form USVâs investment framework are based on societal/behavioral trends.
Mega trend 1: Transition from bureaucratic hierarchies to technology driven networks. In the industrial era transactional costs were so high, but technology has changed that in the post-industrial area, so technology driven networks are just beginning to replace bureaucratic hierarchies.
Twitter is replacing the newspaper. We are all reporters now, anyone can publish information, the crowd decides what news is most important with follower count, and retweets. We now get all news instantly, and anywhere on our phone.
Youtube allows anyone to be a video creator. The crowd determines what is most interesting. We watch videos anywhere on our phones.
Soundcloud allows anyone to create audio/music. An individual then can post it on Soundcloud, without a record label. If the crowd likes what you share, you can build a following.
Airbnb disrupting hotels, Kickstarter/VHX replacing Hollywood system, Codeacademy p2p learning.
Mega trend 2: Unbundling- everything will eventually become unbundled. This focuses on the way products/services are delivered. In the past it was expensive to package things and deliver them to market, so products got bundled. Technology now efficiently allows things be packaged and delivered, allowing entrepreneurs to deliver much more focused services that can be delivered a la carte. The resulting products are much better because the people producing them are only focused on being the best at very specific things.
Banking- in the past it was expensive to open a bank branch- so banks offered everything there: mortgage, small business loan, credit cards, etc. Now technology entrepreneurs are picking off different verticals, and building businesses around them. The peer to peer model is emerging, Lending club and Funding Circle. Technology driven models will unbundle the traditional bank.
Education- expensive to put students in a single room, and have a professor up front. No longer necessary, Â since you can livestream a class to an unlimited number of people. Library full of printed books was expensive, now more people have tablets, and can get books instantly, at lower prices. Research was very capital intensive, but is becoming unbundled as well- using a network marketplace model ex: Science Exchange.
Entertainment- you used to have  to get a cable subscription to get all of your content- now we have Hulu, Netflix, YouTube, and VHX. Users can choose what they want, and connect their device to the TV.
Mega trend 3: Â We are all now nodes on a network. More people are coming online, and once they do, they are always connected. In the developing world much more feasible to have a smartphone rather than a desktop- lower cost/more versatile. We arenât connected sometimes, but all of the time. We are all connected to one another on the network.
Uber- you (the passenger) and driver can instantly connect and go wherever you want. Profoundly impacts transportation. Taxis, rental cars, delivery. Simple move that is rapidly changing the world we live in.
Payments- Venmo, Square, Dwolla, etc- can send money to anyone on the network.
Dating- Tinder, leverages location and photos to connect people to one another on the network.
Four sectors of interest to USV-
Money (not payments)- Bitcoin the protocol- the financial and transactional protocol for the internet, that did not exist previously. Global, distributed, not owned/operated/controlled by anybody. Blockchain- global p2p, every transaction clears publicly on the ledger. The protocol is a technology based architecture that entrepreneurs can build technology and services over. Payments will flow on the internet like other content already does.
Health/Wellness (not healthcare)- it is what keeps you out of healthcare system. all three mega trends will come into play in this sector. These services will range from being personal/private to network based, and some will be between patient and caregiver. Advances in this space will allow us to be healthy, and well for so much longer in our lives.
Data Leakage (not big data)- data exhaust- this is the data allowing services like FB, Google, Twitter, and the NSA to spy on us when we donât want them to. Getting control on an individual and societal level is important.
Trust/Identity- the tech industry has allowed large companies to serve as our identity service. We AUTH with their services because it is convenient, but we are giving them access to everything we do online. There will be a Bitcoin like service, a protocol that is distributed and global that gives us control over our identity, trust, and data.
Important thought from Fred: For VCâs and entrepreneurs knowing what youâre good at, and what youâre not good at is important. Sticking to what you are good at is crucial. If you donât have a unique point of view on something, stay away.