The Scammers, the Scammed and Americaâs Fate
Paul Krugman, March 24, 2017
Many people are horrified, and rightly so, by what passes for leadership in todayâs Washington. And itâs important to keep the horror of our political situation up front, to keep highlighting the lies, the cruelty, the bad judgment. We must never normalize the state weâre in.
At the same time, however, we should be asking ourselves how the people running our government came to wield such power. How, in particular, did a man whose fraudulence, lack of concern for those he claims to care about and lack of policy coherence should have been obvious to everyone nonetheless manage to win over so many gullible souls?
No, this isnât a column about whatshisname, the guy on Twitter, whoâs getting plenty of attention. Itâs about Paul Ryan, the speaker of the House.
Iâm writing this column without knowing the legislative fate of the American Health Care Act, Mr. Ryanâs proposed Obamacare replacement. Whatever happens in the House and the Senate, however, thereâs no question that the A.H.C.A. is one of the worst bills ever presented to Congress.
It would deprive tens of millions of health insurance â the decline in the number of insured Americans would be larger than what would result from simple repeal of Obamacare! â while sharply raising expenses for many of those who remain. It would be especially punitive for lower-income, older, rural voters.
In return, we would get a small reduction in the budget deficit. Oh, and a tax cut, perhaps as much as $1 trillion, for the wealthy.
This is terrible stuff. Itâs made worse by the lies Mr. Ryan has been telling about his plan.
He claims that it would lower premiums; it would actually increase them. He claims that it would end the Obamacare death spiral; there isnât a death spiral, and his plan would be more, not less, vulnerable to a vicious circle of rising premiums and falling enrollment. He claims that it would lead to âpatient-centered careâ; whatever that is supposed to mean, it would actually do nothing to increase choice.
Some people seem startled both by the awfulness of Mr. Ryanâs plan and by the raw dishonesty of his sales pitch. But why? Everything weâve seen from Mr. Ryan amid the health care debacle â everything, that is, except the press coverage â has been completely consistent with his previous career. That is, heâs still the same guy I wrote about back in 2010, in a column titled âThe Flimflam Man.â
I wrote that column in response to what turned out to be the first of a series of high-profile Ryan budget proposals. While differing in detail, all of these proposals share a family resemblance: Like his health plan, each involved savage cuts in benefits for the poor and working class, with the money released by these cuts used to offset large tax cuts for the rich. All were, however, sold on false pretenses as plans for deficit reduction.
Worse, the alleged deficit reduction came entirely from âmagic asterisksâ: claims about huge savings to be achieved by cutting unspecified government spending, huge revenue increases to be achieved by closing unspecified tax loopholes. It was a con job all the way.
So how did Mr. Ryan reach a position where his actions may reshape the lives of so many of his fellow citizens, in most cases very much for the worse? The answer lies in the impenetrable gullibility of his base. No, not his constituents: the news media, who made him what he is.
You see, until very recently both news coverage and political punditry were dominated by the convention of âbalance.â This meant, in particular, that when it came to policy debates one was always supposed to present both sides as having equally well-founded arguments. And this in turn meant that it was necessary to point to serious, honest, knowledgeable proponents of conservative positions.
Enter Mr. Ryan, who isnât actually a serious, honest policy expert, but plays one on TV. He rolls up his sleeves! He uses PowerPoint! He must be the real deal! So that became the mediaâs narrative. And media adulation, more than anything else, propelled him to his current position.
Now, however, the flimflam has hit a wall. Mr. Ryan used to be able to game the Congressional Budget Office, getting it to produce reports that looked to the unwary like proper scores of his plans, but werenât. This time, however, he couldnât pull it off: The C.B.O. told the devastating truth about his plan, and his evasions and lies were too obvious to ignore.
Thereâs an important lesson here, and itâs not just about health care or Mr. Ryan; itâs about the destructive effects of false symmetry in reporting at a time of vast asymmetry in reality.
This false symmetry â downplaying the awfulness of some candidates, vastly exaggerating the flaws of their opponents â isnât the only reason America is in the mess itâs in. But itâs an important part of the story. And now weâre all about to pay the price.