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https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/09/tehran-crash-plane-downed-by-iranian-missile-western-officials-believe?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Post_to_Tumblr

Tehran crash: plane downed by Iranian missile, western officials believe

UK officials say they have seen US intelligence suggesting missile brought down plane

By Michael Safi and Dan Sabbagh |

Published:12:02 Thu January 9, 2020 | The Guardian | Posted January 09, 2020

The Ukrainian passenger jet that crashed shortly after takeoff from Tehran on Wednesday was accidentally shot down by an Iranian anti-aircraft missile, western security officials believe.

UK sources told the Guardian that the UK had seen US intelligence that suggested that the plane was hit by an Iranian air defence missile.

Separately, officials told US media they had identified the signature from an Iranian anti-aircraft missile battery being activated shortly before the aircraft crashed into countryside south-west of the Iranian capital, killing all on 176 on board. The officials also said they had identified the infrared signature from two suspected missile launches followed shortly afterwards by the infra red blip from the burning and fatally disabled aircraft.

Suspicions that the aircraft may have accidentally been shot down had grown throughout Thursday. A private intelligence firm concluded it was likely hit by a surface-to-air missile, and two US media outlets reported that government sources had made the same assessment.

The London-based firm IHS Markit said in a memo it assessed that Ukraine  International Airlines Boeing 737-800 was “likely to have been shot down mistakenly by a IRGC-operated SA-15 missile”. It cited images circulating on social media showing a Russian-made missile that was purportedly photographed near the site of the crash. It could not confirm the authenticity of the image but said it assessed it to be credible.

The US magazine Newsweek and CBS News also quoted intelligence sources claiming the jet carrying 176 passengers and crew had been shot down, the latter citing evidence of infrared blips detected by satellites that were consistent with at least two missile launches followed by an explosion.

Oleksiy Danilov, the secretary of Ukraine’s national security council, cited the same images of missile debris.

“Our commission is currently agreeing with the Iranian authorities to travel to the place of the crash, and plans to search for debris of a Russian surface-to-air Tor missile, according to information which was published on the internet,” he said in a Facebook post on Thursday.

Some members of the investigative team had been involved in the probe into the 2014 shooting down of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 over eastern Ukraine by Russian-armed rebels, Danilov added. “We will use all our best practices from investigating the attack on MH17 to find out the truth in the case of the Ukrainian plane in Tehran,” he said.

The UK prime minister, Boris Johnson, called for a full investigation into the crash and the reports it could have been caused by something such as a stray missile, following a telephone conversation with the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Downing Street said on Thursday.

In the phone call, Johnson offered his condolences, offered UK support and was updated on the crash, a No 10 spokesman said. “The prime minister said that there needed to be a full, credible and transparent investigation into what happened.”

Asked whether this meant the UK was concerned about the possible cause of the crash, he said: “I’m not going to speculate on this, but the reports we have seen are very concerning, and we’re urgently looking into them.”

The Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said earlier on Thursday that his government was considering “several possibilities” but asked people to refrain from speculating about the crash. Iranian authorities have blamed mechanical issues, which they said happened shortly after the plane left Tehran’s main airport at 6.13am on Wednesday.

The timing of the disaster, a few hours after Iran fired ballistic missiles at US forces stationed in Iraq in retaliation for its assassination of general Qassem Suleimani, has fuelled speculation that it might have somehow been linked to the hostilities, but so far there has been no evidence to back this up.

Witnesses to the crash on the ground and from passing aircraft said they saw the jet burst into flames while still in the air, according to the report, which stated technical problems were the most likely reason.

It confirmed that both the aircraft’s black boxes had been recovered, giving investigators access to data and cockpit communications, though some parts of their memory had been damaged in the crash.

Iran’s aviation authority said on Wednesday it would not hand over flight recorders either to the aircraft’s American manufacturer or to US aviation authorities, but that it would give Ukrainian investigators access to the investigation.

But the head of the authority, Ali Abedzadeh, appeared to backtrack on Thursday, saying claims in the Iranian media that the black boxes would not be sent overseas were “a mistake taken by the reporter”.

Zelenskiy said Ukrainian officials arrived in Tehran early on Thursday and that he would speak to the Iranian president, Hassan Rouhani, to ensure close cooperation.

The plane was carrying 167 passengers and nine crew members from several countries, including 82 Iranians, at least 63 Canadians, 11 Ukrainians and three Britons.

The Canadian prime minister, Justin Trudeau, offered his condolences to the families of the victims on Wednesday. “Our government will continue to work closely with its international partners to ensure that … [the crash] is thoroughly investigated, and that Canadians’ questions are answered,” he said.

The 737-800 belongs to the same family as, but is a different model to, the 737 Max 8 aircraft, which has been grounded since two fatal crashes occurred within six months in Indonesia and Ethiopia in 2018.