#harper polling

Two polls came out this week from pollster who regularly survey the state. One polls primarily for progressives and Democrats. The other polls for conservatives and Republicans. They had very similar results for gubernatorial contests but diverged on the U.S. Senate and presidential races. 

Harper Polling has been polling the state for the conservative Civitas for the past year or soand have…

Joe Miller and Lisa Murkowski debate just prior to the 2010 midterms. According to polling, Miller would lose to incumbent Mark Begich in a landslide in 2014. Photo by Al Grillo, courtesy of Corbis.

Caught up in a media world that that not only longs for, but demands competitive, theatrical political races, it's easy to gloss-over those contests lacking in the "drama" department. And what makes a better political contest than a close one? One where candidates are evenly matched, funded to the tee, and stir the emotions of their supporters and detractors? But alas, the soap-opera contest cannot always be. Landslides are occasionally inevitable (usually involving a particularly strong incumbent or an unusually weak or unpopular challenger). Sometimes, however, they're entirely avoidable. And yesterday, the 2014 Alaska Senate race took one big step closer to becoming one of those avoidable landslides for the GOP. Yes, the Alaska Senate race features a one-term, relatively unknown Senator defending his seat for the first time in a state with a decidedly Republican slant. It's certainly not a state where you'd expect a freshman Democrat, elected by one point in a wave-Presidential year, to be in a position to win a midterm reelection overwhelmingly. But fortunately for Senator Mark Begich (D-AK), the only Republican challenger making clear signals about running is a man who is despised by his state's general electorate, and underwater with members of his own party... Joe Miller. So what happened to the man who came painstakingly close to becoming Senator just two and a half years ago? What caused the guy who defeated incumbent Lisa Murkowski in a Republican primary to become so disliked within his own party? A series of ethical and ideological controversies that emerged near the tail-end of his almost-successful 2010 Senate campaign seem to be the catalyst, and his narrow Senate loss and subsequent law-suit to challenge the results did little to stop the bleeding. Though whatever the cause of the once-rising Conservative stars' fall, the consequences seem pretty clear. Alaskans say they would vote overwhelmingly to reelect Democrat Mark Begich if their second option is Republican Joe Miller. Not only that, but Alaska REPUBLICANS would just assume have anybody else - any potential Republican candidate - as their nominee in 2014. The chart below documents every potential Alaska 2014 Senate Republican primary match-up involving Joe Miller from every pollster to test the race thus far (and the pickings are pretty slim; they're limited to just Public Policy Polling and Harper Polling - both partisan firms). But the results are remarkably similar:

In nearly every possible Alaska GOP primary match-up one could imagine, no matter the ideology or number of candidates running against him, Miller winds up as the LAST choice of Alaska conservatives. Meanwhile Gov. Sean Parnell is the most formidable 2014 Alaska Republican in the primary, with Sarah Palin being the second most formidable. But it's not just the fact that Alaska Republicans would prefer other candidates to Joe Miller; it's the fact that they simply don't like the guy. The chart below documents the favorability rating of every possible GOP candidate taken this year, among Alaska Republicans only:

While potential GOP candidates Treadwell, Palin, and Parnell are well received by their party's voters, Miller struggles, never reaching much higher than 1/3 approval....again, among his OWN PARTY. But for the sake of argument, lets put aside for a moment the obvious difficulties Miller would face in a Republican Primary, and assume he makes it to the general to take on Sen. Begich. Then what? Well, things certainly don't get any rosier for Joe:

Incumbent Senator Mark Begich (D) (left) could be facing fmr. Governor Sarah Palin (R) in his first reelection battle next November. Photo on left courtesy of Loren Holmes, photo on right courtesy of A.P.

GOP survey group Harper Polling is out with a new 2014 Senate Republican Primary Poll of Alaska, sponsored by the Tea Party Leadership Fund. And there's some encouraging news for Sarah Palin fans -- home-state Republicans still regard the former Governor and Vice Presidential nominee fondly, enough-so that they'd be willing to put her back in elected office next year:

If the Republican Primary election for U.S. Senator were held today, who would you vote for? Joe Miller, Sarah Palin, or Mead Treadwell? Sarah Palin  --  32% Mead Treadwell  --  30% Joe Miller  --  14% Not Sure  --  24%

In a one-on-one race with the only candidate to have announced an exploratory committee for 2014 so far, Joe Miller, Palin would lead her former protege 52-19%, with 29% undecided. Given the public opinion beating Palin took after resigning as Governor of Alaska in the Summer of 2009, followed by brutal media treatment in the aftermath of the Tuscon Arizona shooting of former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D), it may seem somewhat surprising to see Palin positioned to win her party's nomination for office again in her home-state. But among Alaska GOPers, her favorability rating is a strong 62/30%, she's viewed as the most likely to "fight for conservative values" by 20 points, and as the "strongest person to take on liberal Democrats in Washington" by 16 points.  But as the cross tabs will indicate, Harper Polling is finding a much more "conservative" GOP Senate primary electorate than the one PPP found in the immediate aftermath of 2010's contentious battle between Joe Miller and Lisa Murkowski. On August 24, 2010, Senator Lisa Murkowski (R) was NARROWLY defeated by Palin-endorsed Joe Miller for the GOP nomination for Senate, 51-49% (though Murkowski refused to concede the race until 1 week later). The rest was history, as Murkowski went on to wage a successful write-in campaign that November, defeating Miller (R) and McAdams (D) by a small margin. In the aftermath of that highly contentious Republican primary battle, PPP conducted something like an exit poll, though instead of polling Alaskan primary voters as they left the polling booths, they simply called them at their homes the following day. In that survey/exit poll of the 2010 Miller v. Murkowski primary battle, 59% of respondents identified themselves as Conservatives, 37% as Moderate, and 4% as Liberal. Now certainly, political environments can change, question wording can yield different results, and pollsters can just be wrong. And based on the disparate ideological I.D. findings of the two polling firms, one has to believe that one of those three things happened. While PPP found just 59% of the August 2010 Alaska GOP primary electorate to be conservative, 84% of Harper Polling respondents claimed to be conservative. While PPP measured 37% of the 2010 Alaska GOP primary electorate to be Moderate, Harper Polling found just 14% identifying as such. While PPP found 4% identifying as Liberal, Harper Polling found 1%. And as it's the habit of this blog, let's see what the new Harper Polling survey would have shown had they found a GOP primary electorate more like the one PPP says showed up when Miller narrowly defeated Murkowski in 2010:

Lt. Governor Sean Treadwell and former GOP Senate nominee Joe Miller both see their numbers improve under a 2010 turnout-scenario, while Sarah Palin's decline. Although Palin wins a plurality of Conservative Alaska GOP primary voters (35%), Treadwell doubles her margin among Moderate GOP voters. And since PPP found Conservatives making up a far smaller (and Moderates far larger) portion of the 2010 GOP primary electorate than Harper Polling, Treadwell moves from a 2 point deficit against Palin to a three point lead upon reweighting. Unfortunately, Harper Polling did not test Palin, Treadwell, or Miller against their Democratic opponent, Senator Mark Begich (elected in 2008). But they did  3 months ago. Then, Palin was able to make the race somewhat competitive (trailing the incumbent Begich 47-40%), while Miller would lose in a large landslide (52-29%). Lt. Gov. Treadwell was not tested against Begich in Harper's Jan. 29-30 survey. Now, exit polling in Alaska is hard to come by in presidential elections, much less primary or midterm exit polling. As a result, a comparison of Harper's January Alaska General Senate Election polling will have to be limited to 2008 and 2004 Presidential exit polls, as I was unable to locate any midterm Alaska exit polling. Either as a result of question working, pollster error, or the simple difference between midterm and Presidential electorates, Harper Polling finds a much more conservative and much less moderate 2014 Midterm Alaska electorate than exit pollsters found on Presidential election night 2008 and 2004 (much like they found regarding their primary electorate). That's why the chart below shows such drastic movement in favor of Sen. Mark Begich, in the event the Harper Poll were reweighted to 2008 or 2004 ideological I.D. findings:

Republicans seem to be doing a lot of head-scratching these days. For most of President Obama's time in office, nothing seems to have gone the way they had predicted or hoped. And worse than that, the GOP is receiving the overwhelming majority of the blame from the American public for the country's seeming state of disarray. From the debt ceiling debate, to the "fiscal cliff," to the sequester and more, President Obama has become the new Teflon president, while the GOP can barely muster a quarter of the country to admit they have a favorable view of the party. But how can all of this be? After all, the Democrats have controlled the Senate chamber for the last 6 years, and the White House the last four.  The President's masterful control of the bully pulpit, his continued nationwide, campaign-style advocacy on behalf of his 2nd term agenda, and an obviously supportive D.C. press corps, all have some role in creating the impression of a Republican Party that just can't get it together.  And to top it off, in the wake of weak white turnout in 2012, there's talk in some circles of an emerging Democratic majority, at least at the presidential level. Sounds like a bit of a disaster for the GOP, huh? Surprisingly, no, not if the generic congressional ballot for 2014 is any indication. According to both Pollster Trend and TPM Poll Tracker, Democrats currently lead the 2014 generic congressional ballot by just 42-40% and 43-40%, respectively. Regarding the 3 most recent surveys from 3 pollsters that frequently ask the generic ballot question, Republicans actually LEAD in one of them (Harper Polling (R)), TIE in one (PPP (D)), and trail by 3 in the other (Rasmussen). Should these numbers convince the GOP it's time to the shift their views leftward, or cause panic over a Democratic landslide in 2014? Probably not, especially once you consider where Republicans stood on the generic ballot at this point in the 2010 cycle. The below chart compares the 2010 and 2014 generic ballots by looking at an average through the time line of post-election 2008/2012 through the present (early March 2009/2013):

Compiled from TPM and Pollster Without question, the Tea Party landslide of 2010 was an electoral high-watermark for Republicans over the last quarter century. That year, Republicans gained 63 House seats, 6 senate seats, controlled 29/50 governor seats, and carried the national house vote 51-45%. Yet despite all their success, at this very point in the 2010 cycle, it was the DEMOCRATS that led the Republicans on the generic ballot, 44-37%, as the above chart indicates. By comparison, present-day Republicans are only trailing Democrats on the generic ballot 45-41%. So, here's a message to Republicans: The SKY IS NOT FALLING...yet, at least. Especially not when you realize that no 2nd-term President's party has gained seats in Congress in their final midterm election since 1938, save 1998. A closer look at the internals for the three big pollsters who frequently survey the generic ballot provides more good news for Republicans - they're winning higher percentages of Independents and higher percentages of their own party in all three polls. The race is only as close as it is because all three pollsters found voters identifying as Democrats at much higher percentages than Republicans. The Harper Polling survey showing Republicans ahead on the generic ballot 42-41%, found respondents partisan identification at D+8, or 42% Democrat, 34% Republican, 24% Other. The Rasmussen Poll finding Democrats ahead on the generic ballot 43-40% sees a D+7 electorate at this early stage of the cycle (39% Democrat, 32% Republican, 29% Other). PPP finds the generic ballot TIED, yet miraculously, also winds up with a sample that is D+9 (42% Democrat, 33% Republican, and 25% Other. Nevermind the fact that all 3 samples are more Democratic than the last two midterm election cycles, they're also more Democratic than the last two PRESIDENTIAL cycles (where voters tend to be less white and less Republican). Just for fun, assume that the "deeply unpopular" GOP pulls off another miracle in 2014 and generates high Republican turnout on par with the Tea Party takeover of 2010, when they matched Democratic turnout at 35%, with 29% identifying as Independent. What kind of effect would such a reweighting have on the 3 polls, all other things remaining the same?

Harper Polling is a new Republican firm designed to be the GOP's answer to the well-known Public Policy Polling (D). Politico recently did a piece on the new group regarding the Democratic edge in the polling and data departments. Well, it seems they're already up and running, as they've released their first numbers regarding the 2016 Republican primary: Marco Rubio:  34% Chris Christie:  18% Condoleeza Rice:  14% Rand Paul:  8% Allen West:  5% Scott Brown:  3% Undecided:  18% Rubio leads the pack, confirming the PPP poll from two weeks ago that had Rubio ahead, albeit by a much smaller margin. Though the likely reason for the large disparity is in the candidates that were polled. Harper Polling included a few unconventional candidates in exchange for likely candidates like Paul Ryan, Jeb Bush, or Rick Santorum. PPP only polled likely candidates. PPP results from 12/6/2012: Rubio:  18% Christie:  14% Bush:  12% Ryan:  12% Huckabee:  11% Rice:  8% Palin:  7% Rand Paul: 7% Santorum: 4% Other/Undecided:  7% *Note Rick Santorum is in last place. That's a precarious position for the runner-up to the 2012 GOP nomination, as I wrote about here. From Harper Polling, regarding the 2016 poll:

Rubio is strongest in the South and West.  There’s some logic in that.  He’s a son of the South, for those who count Florida as the South.  The Hispanic appeal may run a bit stronger out West.  In the Northeast, he and Christie run virtually tied at 29-27%.  The Midwest may ultimately be the harder nut to crack for Rubio.   His working class background may be his strongest connection to the industrial Midwest. The Chris Christie primary voter appears to lean more toward the middle.  Along with Condi Rice, his voters are more likely to support exceptions to the no-new-taxes pledge and they believe that compromise is better for the country.  They are less likely to watch Fox News and support TEA party goals. Speaking of the TEA party.  It is the foundation of Rubio’s support.  Approaching half of all TEA supporters (43%) are voting for him.  If I’m one of the other guys, it can’t stay that way.  Somebody has to eat away at that base for Rubio.

Harper Polling had some other interesting, non-2016 related findings, such as the fact that Republicans, by a 47-36% margin, believe that it is never okay to violate a pledge to not raise taxes. Also, likely Republican primary voters oppose "Clinton-era tax rates" by a slim 35-32% margin. Unfortunately, Harper Polling, unlike PPP, doesn't appear to provide the crosstabs for their surveys. So a more extensive look at the numbers will have to wait for now. UPDATE: Harper Polling's twitter handle responded to this blog post here and here. Their tweets regarding the crosstabs and candidate polling selection are below:

Left @reppaulryan out b/c his name ID gives a false positive over the rest of the field. partisanid.blogspot.com/2012/12/rubio-… — Harper Polling (@HarperPolling) December 21, 2012

X tabs coming. 1st run thru the system causes delays on everything. Including sleep. partisanid.blogspot.com/2012/12/rubio-… — Harper Polling (@HarperPolling) December 21, 2012

Not only that, but they're indicating they intend on being even more transparent than PPP regarding their weighting/sampling:

Joe Miller and Lisa Murkowski debate just prior to the 2010 midterms. According to polling, Miller would lose to incumbent Mark Begich in a landslide in 2014. Photo by Al Grillo, courtesy of Corbis.

Caught up in a media world that that not only longs for, but demands competitive, theatrical political races, it's easy to gloss-over those contests lacking in the "drama" department. And what makes a better political contest than a close one? One where candidates are evenly matched, funded to the tee, and stir the emotions of their supporters and detractors? But alas, the soap-opera contest cannot always be. Landslides are occasionally inevitable (usually involving a particularly strong incumbent or an unusually weak or unpopular challenger). Sometimes, however, they're entirely avoidable. And yesterday, the 2014 Alaska Senate race took one big step closer to becoming one of those avoidable landslides for the GOP. Yes, the Alaska Senate race features a one-term, relatively unknown Senator defending his seat for the first time in a state with a decidedly Republican slant. It's certainly not a state where you'd expect a freshman Democrat, elected by one point in a wave-Presidential year, to be in a position to win a midterm reelection overwhelmingly. But fortunately for Senator Mark Begich (D-AK), the only Republican challenger making clear signals about running is a man who is despised by his state's general electorate, and underwater with members of his own party... Joe Miller. So what happened to the man who came painstakingly close to becoming Senator just two and a half years ago? What caused the guy who defeated incumbent Lisa Murkowski in a Republican primary to become so disliked within his own party? A series of ethical and ideological controversies that emerged near the tail-end of his almost-successful 2010 Senate campaign seem to be the catalyst, and his narrow Senate loss and subsequent law-suit to challenge the results did little to stop the bleeding. Though whatever the cause of the once-rising Conservative stars' fall, the consequences seem pretty clear. Alaskans say they would vote overwhelmingly to reelect Democrat Mark Begich if their second option is Republican Joe Miller. Not only that, but Alaska REPUBLICANS would just assume have anybody else - any potential Republican candidate - as their nominee in 2014. The chart below documents every potential Alaska 2014 Senate Republican primary match-up involving Joe Miller from every pollster to test the race thus far (and the pickings are pretty slim; they're limited to just Public Policy Polling and Harper Polling - both partisan firms). But the results are remarkably similar:

In nearly every possible Alaska GOP primary match-up one could imagine, no matter the ideology or number of candidates running against him, Miller winds up as the LAST choice of Alaska conservatives. Meanwhile Gov. Sean Parnell is the most formidable 2014 Alaska Republican in the primary, with Sarah Palin being the second most formidable. But it's not just the fact that Alaska Republicans would prefer other candidates to Joe Miller; it's the fact that they simply don't like the guy. The chart below documents the favorability rating of every possible GOP candidate taken this year, among Alaska Republicans only:

While potential GOP candidates Treadwell, Palin, and Parnell are well received by their party's voters, Miller struggles, never reaching much higher than 1/3 approval....again, among his OWN PARTY. But for the sake of argument, lets put aside for a moment the obvious difficulties Miller would face in a Republican Primary, and assume he makes it to the general to take on Sen. Begich. Then what? Well, things certainly don't get any rosier for Joe:

Incumbent Senator Mark Begich (D) (left) could be facing fmr. Governor Sarah Palin (R) in his first reelection battle next November. Photo on left courtesy of Loren Holmes, photo on right courtesy of A.P.

GOP survey group Harper Polling is out with a new 2014 Senate Republican Primary Poll of Alaska, sponsored by the Tea Party Leadership Fund. And there's some encouraging news for Sarah Palin fans -- home-state Republicans still regard the former Governor and Vice Presidential nominee fondly, enough-so that they'd be willing to put her back in elected office next year:

If the Republican Primary election for U.S. Senator were held today, who would you vote for? Joe Miller, Sarah Palin, or Mead Treadwell? Sarah Palin  --  32% Mead Treadwell  --  30% Joe Miller  --  14% Not Sure  --  24%

In a one-on-one race with the only candidate to have announced an exploratory committee for 2014 so far, Joe Miller, Palin would lead her former protege 52-19%, with 29% undecided. Given the public opinion beating Palin took after resigning as Governor of Alaska in the Summer of 2009, followed by brutal media treatment in the aftermath of the Tuscon Arizona shooting of former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D), it may seem somewhat surprising to see Palin positioned to win her party's nomination for office again in her home-state. But among Alaska GOPers, her favorability rating is a strong 62/30%, she's viewed as the most likely to "fight for conservative values" by 20 points, and as the "strongest person to take on liberal Democrats in Washington" by 16 points.  But as the cross tabs will indicate, Harper Polling is finding a much more "conservative" GOP Senate primary electorate than the one PPP found in the immediate aftermath of 2010's contentious battle between Joe Miller and Lisa Murkowski. On August 24, 2010, Senator Lisa Murkowski (R) was NARROWLY defeated by Palin-endorsed Joe Miller for the GOP nomination for Senate, 51-49% (though Murkowski refused to concede the race until 1 week later). The rest was history, as Murkowski went on to wage a successful write-in campaign that November, defeating Miller (R) and McAdams (D) by a small margin. In the aftermath of that highly contentious Republican primary battle, PPP conducted something like an exit poll, though instead of polling Alaskan primary voters as they left the polling booths, they simply called them at their homes the following day. In that survey/exit poll of the 2010 Miller v. Murkowski primary battle, 59% of respondents identified themselves as Conservatives, 37% as Moderate, and 4% as Liberal. Now certainly, political environments can change, question wording can yield different results, and pollsters can just be wrong. And based on the disparate ideological I.D. findings of the two polling firms, one has to believe that one of those three things happened. While PPP found just 59% of the August 2010 Alaska GOP primary electorate to be conservative, 84% of Harper Polling respondents claimed to be conservative. While PPP measured 37% of the 2010 Alaska GOP primary electorate to be Moderate, Harper Polling found just 14% identifying as such. While PPP found 4% identifying as Liberal, Harper Polling found 1%. And as it's the habit of this blog, let's see what the new Harper Polling survey would have shown had they found a GOP primary electorate more like the one PPP says showed up when Miller narrowly defeated Murkowski in 2010:

Lt. Governor Sean Treadwell and former GOP Senate nominee Joe Miller both see their numbers improve under a 2010 turnout-scenario, while Sarah Palin's decline. Although Palin wins a plurality of Conservative Alaska GOP primary voters (35%), Treadwell doubles her margin among Moderate GOP voters. And since PPP found Conservatives making up a far smaller (and Moderates far larger) portion of the 2010 GOP primary electorate than Harper Polling, Treadwell moves from a 2 point deficit against Palin to a three point lead upon reweighting. Unfortunately, Harper Polling did not test Palin, Treadwell, or Miller against their Democratic opponent, Senator Mark Begich (elected in 2008). But they did  3 months ago. Then, Palin was able to make the race somewhat competitive (trailing the incumbent Begich 47-40%), while Miller would lose in a large landslide (52-29%). Lt. Gov. Treadwell was not tested against Begich in Harper's Jan. 29-30 survey. Now, exit polling in Alaska is hard to come by in presidential elections, much less primary or midterm exit polling. As a result, a comparison of Harper's January Alaska General Senate Election polling will have to be limited to 2008 and 2004 Presidential exit polls, as I was unable to locate any midterm Alaska exit polling. Either as a result of question working, pollster error, or the simple difference between midterm and Presidential electorates, Harper Polling finds a much more conservative and much less moderate 2014 Midterm Alaska electorate than exit pollsters found on Presidential election night 2008 and 2004 (much like they found regarding their primary electorate). That's why the chart below shows such drastic movement in favor of Sen. Mark Begich, in the event the Harper Poll were reweighted to 2008 or 2004 ideological I.D. findings:

Republicans seem to be doing a lot of head-scratching these days. For most of President Obama's time in office, nothing seems to have gone the way they had predicted or hoped. And worse than that, the GOP is receiving the overwhelming majority of the blame from the American public for the country's seeming state of disarray. From the debt ceiling debate, to the "fiscal cliff," to the sequester and more, President Obama has become the new Teflon president, while the GOP can barely muster a quarter of the country to admit they have a favorable view of the party. But how can all of this be? After all, the Democrats have controlled the Senate chamber for the last 6 years, and the White House the last four.  The President's masterful control of the bully pulpit, his continued nationwide, campaign-style advocacy on behalf of his 2nd term agenda, and an obviously supportive D.C. press corps, all have some role in creating the impression of a Republican Party that just can't get it together.  And to top it off, in the wake of weak white turnout in 2012, there's talk in some circles of an emerging Democratic majority, at least at the presidential level. Sounds like a bit of a disaster for the GOP, huh? Surprisingly, no, not if the generic congressional ballot for 2014 is any indication. According to both Pollster Trend and TPM Poll Tracker, Democrats currently lead the 2014 generic congressional ballot by just 42-40% and 43-40%, respectively. Regarding the 3 most recent surveys from 3 pollsters that frequently ask the generic ballot question, Republicans actually LEAD in one of them (Harper Polling (R)), TIE in one (PPP (D)), and trail by 3 in the other (Rasmussen). Should these numbers convince the GOP it's time to the shift their views leftward, or cause panic over a Democratic landslide in 2014? Probably not, especially once you consider where Republicans stood on the generic ballot at this point in the 2010 cycle. The below chart compares the 2010 and 2014 generic ballots by looking at an average through the time line of post-election 2008/2012 through the present (early March 2009/2013):

Compiled from TPM and Pollster Without question, the Tea Party landslide of 2010 was an electoral high-watermark for Republicans over the last quarter century. That year, Republicans gained 63 House seats, 6 senate seats, controlled 29/50 governor seats, and carried the national house vote 51-45%. Yet despite all their success, at this very point in the 2010 cycle, it was the DEMOCRATS that led the Republicans on the generic ballot, 44-37%, as the above chart indicates. By comparison, present-day Republicans are only trailing Democrats on the generic ballot 45-41%. So, here's a message to Republicans: The SKY IS NOT FALLING...yet, at least. Especially not when you realize that no 2nd-term President's party has gained seats in Congress in their final midterm election since 1938, save 1998. A closer look at the internals for the three big pollsters who frequently survey the generic ballot provides more good news for Republicans - they're winning higher percentages of Independents and higher percentages of their own party in all three polls. The race is only as close as it is because all three pollsters found voters identifying as Democrats at much higher percentages than Republicans. The Harper Polling survey showing Republicans ahead on the generic ballot 42-41%, found respondents partisan identification at D+8, or 42% Democrat, 34% Republican, 24% Other. The Rasmussen Poll finding Democrats ahead on the generic ballot 43-40% sees a D+7 electorate at this early stage of the cycle (39% Democrat, 32% Republican, 29% Other). PPP finds the generic ballot TIED, yet miraculously, also winds up with a sample that is D+9 (42% Democrat, 33% Republican, and 25% Other. Nevermind the fact that all 3 samples are more Democratic than the last two midterm election cycles, they're also more Democratic than the last two PRESIDENTIAL cycles (where voters tend to be less white and less Republican). Just for fun, assume that the "deeply unpopular" GOP pulls off another miracle in 2014 and generates high Republican turnout on par with the Tea Party takeover of 2010, when they matched Democratic turnout at 35%, with 29% identifying as Independent. What kind of effect would such a reweighting have on the 3 polls, all other things remaining the same?