#senate 2014

Politics

Election 2014: Rise of independents scrambles the math

Independents are on the rise in the 2014 election—both as candidates and voters—and in some states, the impact could be profound. The starkest example is in deep-red Kansas, where independent Senate candidate Greg Orman threatens to unseat three-term incumbent Sen. Pat Roberts (R), in a race with no Democrat. A victory by Orman could cost Republicans’ their goal of retaking the Senate. The race is a tossup. Battles in South Dakota, Alaska, Maine, Louisiana and Georgia all could change because of independents. Next come the voters themselves. Gallup found that 42 percent of Americans self-identify as independent—the highest number Gallup has found since it began interviewing people by telephone 25 years ago.

At the rate we’re going, by 2016 the two dirtiest words in political language are going to be Republican and Democrat.

Ford O’Connell, Republican strategist

All of the above may give heart to Americans who are tired of politics as usual—especially the partisan gridlock in Washington—and welcome what appears to be a burst of outside-the-political-box thinking. But there’s less there than meets the eye. Most "independent" American voters lean philosophically toward one of the major parties, and end up voting either Republican or Democratic. Whether the American public’s growing disillusionment with Democrats and Republicans could eventually give way to a competitive third party remains in doubt.

When someone says, 'I want to be a moderate third-party candidate,' there’s no resonance.

Politics

Down and out coal country is center stage in the Senate's priciest campaign

Amid public dissatisfaction with President Barack Obama and the direction of the country, the 2014 midterm elections have emerged as a high-stakes battle for control of the U.S. Congress. And while every inch of the electoral map remains precious, no campaign has garnered more attention than the showdown in the Bluegrass State. Coal's starring role in the season's most anticipated campaign underscores a fundamental tension at the heart of Kentucky politics. Although once the linchpin of the state's economy, the coal industry has deteriorated beyond recognition. As a result, politicians have designed their campaigns to perpetuate the coal mythology rather than address the most pressing needs of communities like Clay County.

It's an important election. You might not be able to fix the business, but you can probably stop it from getting worse.

Bobby Spare, 58-year-old mine engineer

Politics

GOP cautions that Senate control would still mean long-term gridlock

Congress' persistent gridlock is due largely, but not entirely, to the current power split in the two chambers. But even if Republicans add Senate control to their safe House majority, big legislative roadblocks will remain. In the House, Republicans' deep philosophical divisions will remain. That will further complicate efforts by Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, to pass bills without help from Democrats, who generally demand significant concessions. In short, conservatives who see Republican control of both houses of Congress as the path to repealing the health law, slashing regulations and other priorities probably will be disappointed.

I think the country will face two more years of gridlock.

Ted Strickland, Democrat from Ohio

The Democrat challenging three-term Republican U.S. Sen. Pat Roberts has ended his campaign without explanation.

Chad Taylor sent a letter to the Kansas secretary of state on Wednesday withdrawing from the race, which also has a viable independent candidate, Olathe businessman Greg Orman, as well as a Libertarian candidate, Randall Batson of Wichita.

Taylor issued a separate statement saying he made the decision after consulting with his staff, supporters and Democratic Party leaders.

"Effective today, my campaign is terminated," he said. Originally, the statement said "suspended," but the word was crossed out and replaced with a handwritten "terminated."

In the weeks since her decisive June U.S. Senate primary win, Iowa Republican Joni Ernst has found herself in the precarious position of being an establishment-backed candidate who owes her shot at a national office to some of the most conservative voters in the country. That means that while she’s now got the full support of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, she is also being confronted by sympathetic remarks she made earlier on fringe topics before audiences far to the right of the Iowa general electorate.

The latest primary comments that could haunt her Senate bid are on the topic of Agenda 21, a community planning provision in a decades-old United Nations treaty that’s become an object of fear and conspiracy theories on the right, and especially in the commentaries and writing of Glenn Beck.

Yahoo News has obtained video showing Ernst at a January GOP forum in Montgomery County, Iowa, warning that Agenda 21 could force Iowa farmers off their land, dictate what cities Iowans must live in, and control how Iowa citizens travel from place to place.

“The United Nations has imposed this upon us, and as a U.S. senator, I would say, ‘No more. No more Agenda 21.’ Community planning — to the effect that it is implementing eminent domain and taking away property rights away from individuals — I don’t agree with that. And especially in a place such as Iowa, where we rely heavily upon our agricultural community, our rural communities. We don’t want to see things like eminent domain come into play,” Ernst said in response to a question about Agenda 21 at the forum.

By embracing the Hobby Lobby  decision (Republican politicians could have carefully distanced themselves from the opinions of their Supreme Court allies - but they didn't), the GOP has lost the women's vote for a generation. Just as their other assorted recent policy stances have lost African Americans, Latinos, Asians, and anyone younger than 30, and almost anyone who's not an evangelical Protestant or old-school Catholic.

But there are a lot of red-state seats in play in the Senate this year and Democrats are still (inexplicably) skittish about a 50-state strategy, so who knows. Anyway, to the predictions. In all cases these are the median predictions (useful term) across seven sets of predictions from this Wikipedia article. Unlike Wikipedia, I include the NYT and 538.com selections along with the other five in deriving the median.

Safe D: DE, IL, MA, NJ, NM, RI, HI

Likely D: MN, VA, NH, OR

Leans D: IA, MI, CO

Toss-up: AK (D), LA (D), NC (D), AR (D)

Leans R: MT (D), GA, KY

Likely R: SD (D), WV (D)

Safe R: AL, ID, ME, NE, OK (X2), SC (X2), TN, TX, WY, KS, MS 

Relative to my last update  in March (when there were only six predictors so mixed categories were possible), HI has moved from Safe/Likely D to Safe D; OR has moved from Safe/Likely D to Likely D; AR has moved from Tossup/Leans R to Tossup; GA has moved from Leans/Likely R to Leans R; and WV has moved from Leans R to Likely R.

In other words, remarkable stability, with the only full category move being by WV, whose citizens apparently feel that a Republican Senate will reduce atmospheric carbon dioxide enough to make large-scale coal burning economically viable once more.  AR is back as a full tossup, which is good news for Democrats. 

Iowa GOP Sen. Candidate: Elliot Rodger Shooting Spree An ‘Unfortunate Accident’

Joni Ernst, Republican candidate for Senate in Iowa (from Ernst’s campaign site)

One of the Republicans running to succeed Tom Harkin as the junior Senator from Iowa is in full damage control mode after referring to last weekend’s mass shooting in Santa Barbara as an “unfortunate accident.”

At last night’s Republican primary debate in Des Moines, the moderator asked state senator Joni Ernst a…