#forsyth 2

Timing of...

Baby News

The Forsyths went public with Pregnancy #2* on Wednesday, March 18, 2020, via a YouTube video.  (Previously, they’ve announced their pregnancies via the media—specifically, People and Us Weekly—but apparently opted against any media fanfare this time around.)  In that video, Joy revealed that her Due Date was August 19, 2020.  (See Also.)  Doing the math, she was 128 Days Along—i.e., Exactly 18 Weeks—on the Announcement Date.

Effect on Joy + Austin’s Data—Prior to this, the Forsyths waited until Joy was 96 Days Along, on average, to publicly announce a pregnancy.  That is based on their two prior Pregnancy Announcements—Gideon’s (at 104 Days Along), and Annabell’s (at 88 Days Along).  (Annabell’s Data is included because they announced the pregnancy before the loss.)  Adding in Announcement #3, it’s now Forsyth–typical to announce at 106 Days Along (15 Weeks, 1 Day)—i.e., 10 Days Later.

Effect on the Duggar Family Data—Until the Forsyths’ 3rd Announcement, the ‘typical’ Duggar Pregnancy Announcement occurred at 95 Days (13 Weeks, 4 Days) Along.  Factoring in the Forsyths’ Announcement, that shifted ever–so–slightly to 96 Days Along (13 Weeks, 5 Days; 1 Day Later).

Since then, there has been two more Duggar Pregnancy Reveals.  Here’s how the average shifted—

Pre–Forsyth #2*   95 (94.65) Days Along

+  Forsyth #2*   96 (96.39) Days Along

+  Vuolo #2*   97 (96.84) Days Along

+  Duggar–Caldwell #3   97 (97.00) Days Along  (Assuming a Due Date of February 15, 2021, which is a rough estimate.)

Sex Reveal

The Forsyth’s revealed Forsyth #2*’s sex with the Pregnancy Announcement on March 18, 2020.  Again, Joy was 128 Days—or, Exactly 18 Weeks—Along.

Effect on Joy + Austin’s Data—This was the Forsyths’ first Sex Reveal prior to a live birth.  (They didn’t do one for Gideon.  With Annabell, they revealed the sex at the same time they announced they’d lost the pregnancy.  Duggar Data does not count that as a Sex Reveal, due to the unique circumstances.)  As a result, there’s no data to analyze, here...  It’s Forsyth–typical to reveal a baby’s sex at 128 Days Along, as they did this time, or skip it entirely, as with Gideon.

Effect on the Duggar Family Data—Until Forsyth #2*, Duggar Couples did a pre–birth Sex Reveal in 76% of pregnancies.  (Not counting pregnancies that ended in loss.)  It was typical to do the Sex Reveal at 151 Days Along—i.e., 21 Weeks, 4 Days.  Adding in Forsyth #2*’s Sex Reveal, that average dropped to 149 Days Along (21 Weeks, 2 Days; 2 Days Earlier).  Since then, Vuolo #2*’s Sex Reveal shifted the average yet again, to 146 Days Along (20 Weeks, 6 Days; 3 Days Earlier).   

Name Reveal

As of August 24, 2020, 2:00 PM Pacific, Joy + Austin haven’t announced their baby’s name.  While it is ‘typical’ for Duggar Couples to reveal the baby’s with the Birth Announcement, the Forsyths aren’t the first Duggar Couple to wait...  Jessa + Ben waited several days to announce Spurgeon and Henry’s names.

Delivery (vs. Due Date)

Baby Girl Forsyth was born at 2:12 PM on Friday, August 21, 2020.  Joy’s Due Date was August 19, 2020—so, Baby Girl was 2 Days Late.

Effect on Joy + Austin’s Data—Prior to this, it was ‘typical’ for Joy to deliver 1 Day Late, since that’s when she had Gideon.  (Gideon’s was due February 22, 2018, but arrived on February 23.)  (For obvious reasons, Annabell’s data isn’t factored in on this variable.)  Now after 2 Live Births, it’s ‘typical’ for Joy–Anna to deliver 1.5 Days Late—but, since the Predictor doesn’t handle partial days, let’s round that to 2 Days Late.  That’s 1 Day Later than Joy had Gideon.

Effect on the Duggar Family Data—GrandDuggars 1 (Mackynzie) to 17 (Gracie) arrived 2 (1.75) Days Early, on average.  Factoring in Forsyth #2*, there’s really No Significant Change.  There’s a minimal shift—i.e., 1.75 Days Early to 1.53 Days Early—but it remains 2 Days Early, rounded.

Effect on the Duggar Daughters’ Data—If we set aside the Daughters–In–Law, and look only at the biological Duggar Daughters’ data, their Delivery vs. Due Date data shifts, as follows:  Up until Joy’s 2nd Live Birth, Duggar Daughters had their babies 2 (2.00) Days Late, on average.  Factoring in Forsyth #2*, No Significant Change; it remains 2 Days Late.  (Also, Forsyth #2* happened to be 2 Days Late, so fancy that!) 

Birthweight & Length

At birth, Baby Girl Forsyth was 8 Pounds, 5 Ounces and 19.5 Inches Long, according to E! News, Joy, and Austin.

Effect on Joy + Austin’s Data—The Forsyths’ Firstborn, Gideon, weighed a hefty 10 Pounds, 3 Ounces, at birth, and was 22 Inches Long.  (Gideon is the record–holding Heaviest GrandDuggar, as of August 2020.)  Factoring in Baby Girl, it is now ‘typical’ for a Forsyth infant to be 9 Pounds, 4 Ounces and 20.75 Inches Long, at birth—i.e., 15 Ounces Lighter and 1.25 Inches Shorter than before.

Effect on the Duggar Family Data—Until now, your ‘typical’ GrandDuggar was born at 8 Pounds, 7.55 Ounces and 20.87 Inches Long.  Factoring in Forsyth #2*, that shifts to 8 Pounds, 7.42 Ounces (–0.13 Ounce) and 20.79 Inches (–.08 Inch).     

Effect on the Duggar Daughters’ Data—Again, let’s separate out the biological Duggar Daughters.  They tend to have pretty big babies...  Pre–Forsyth #2*, it was ‘typical’ for their newborns to be 9 Pounds, 2 Ounces and 21.43 Inches Long.  Now, it’s 'typical’ is 9 Ounces, 0.4 Ounces (–1.6 Ounces) and 21.19 Inches (–0.24 Inches).   

Labor Details

At this point, we don’t know the details; however, E! News did report that Joy delivered “without any complications.”

2nd Child Multiplier

Baby Girl Forsyth is a 2nd Child, so her Child Spacing impacts the 2nd Child Multiplier.  (Note—Annabell’s Theoretical Spacing also impacts the 2nd Child Multiplier, since she also would’ve been a 2nd Child.)  Until Baby Girl Forsyth #2*, it was ‘typical’ for Duggar Couples’ 2nd Spacing to be 1.5049x their 1st Child Spacing.  Factoring in Forsyth #2*, that shifts to 1.4605x, which means 2nd Children will be expected to arrive slightly faster than before.     

Procreative Pace / ESOQ

Joy + Austin lost Annabell Elise on June 26, 2019.  Baby Girl Forsyth #2* was born 422 Days Later, on August 21, 2020.  Joy + Austin’s Child Spacings are as follows—

273 Days   Marriage to Gideon

533 Days   Gideon to Annabell  (Theoretical)

422 Days   Loss of Annabell to Baby Girl

Procreative Pace (or Average Child Spacing) is what determines how rapidly any given couple’s next “blessing” will arrive.  Procreative Pace is set at the average of all of that couple’s child spacings, except Marriage–to–Firstborn.

Before Baby Girl, Joy + Austin’s Procreative Pace was simply 533 Days—or, their Theoretical Gideon–to–Annabell Spacing—since they only had the one non–Firstborn Spacing.  Now, their Procreative Pace is set at an average of their Gideon–to–Annabell and Annabell–to–Baby Girl Spacings...  Doing the math, it comes out to 478 Days—or, 55 Days Faster than before.

At that Procreative Pace, Joy + Austin’s ESOQ is 17 Children.  Immediately after they lost Annabell, their ESOQ at the 533–Day Procreative Pace would have been 15 Children.  So, that’s a gain of +2 Children.  (Note—There’s no gain over the most–recent ESOQ Post, since that Post already incorporated their Tentative Loss to Baby Girl Spacing, based on Joy’s Due Date and her typical Delivery vs. Due Date.)    

When To Expect Forsyth #3

At this point, here’s when the Predictor expects Forsyth #3—

Baby News   June 19, 2021

Sex Reveal   July 10, 2021  or  At Birth

Due Date   December 9, 2021

Birthdate   December 11, 2021