#fiscalyear

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The Reserve Bank of India has once again decided to keep policy rate unchanged for the sixth time in a row as it maintains a tight vigil on inflation.

The rate increase cycle was paused in April last year after six consecutive rate hikes aggregating to 250 basis points since May 2022.

Announcing the bi-monthly monetary policy, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has decided to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.5 per cent.

He said MPC will remain watchful of food inflation so that the benefits gained are not frittered away. This is the first bi-monthly policy following presentation of Interim Budget 2024-25 last week. In December, the Consumer Price-based Inflation (CPI) stood at 5.69 per cent.

The government has mandated RBI to ensure CPI inflation at 4 per cent with a margin of 2 per cent on either side.

Meanwhile , The Reserve Bank of India has projected a GDP growth of 7 per cent for 2024-25 financial year, which is lower than the 7.3 per cent expansion estimated for the current fiscal. The growth in December and March quarters is projected at 7 per cent and 6.9, per cent, respectively.

Let me get this straight:

The House cannot agree on a spending bill partially because some members demand a cut on government spending, and they're willing to allow a government shutdown to happen if they don't get their way. Government shutdowns cost taxpayers money (according to some sources, the last one cost over $3 billion). A government shutdown is an unnecessary expense. It seems counterintuitive to threaten the expense of a government shutdown in order to demand reduced discretionary spending.

If the government shuts down, non-essential federal employees are furloughed, but they will receive backpay once the government is funded again. This means furloughed employees will eventually get paid for time they didn't/couldn't work. Federal employees absolutely deserve backpay for the inability of Congress to agree on spending, but time is money. If the government gets funded, work gets done, and employees get paid for said work. If the government shuts down, work doesn't get done, but employees will still eventually get paid. The inability of Congress to fund the government on time (or pass a continuing resolution) causes the government to spend money on wasted time.

It just so happens that the day the government might shut down is also the day student loan payments resume. Wasn't it Congress who pushed to restart student loan payments in October? Planning it for the start of the government fiscal year is a disaster waiting to happen. Some student loan borrowers are federal employees. If the inability of Congress to agree on spending causes the government to shut down, federal employees with student loans won't get paid for the duration of the shutdown. Not everyone has savings built up, especially those federal employees who are new to the workforce. On top of that, student loan servicers are understaffed and not fully prepared for the restart of loan payments, and a government shutdown will temporarily diminish the number of employees who work with the federal student loan program.

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