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Swift-Kelce Wedding Bets: The $5M Prediction Market Explained
A reported $5 million betting frenzy has emerged around the potential marriage of musical artist Taylor Swift and professional football player Travis Kelce. This substantial sum was reportedly wagered across various prediction markets, where participants speculated on the occurrence and specific details of a possible wedding. The activity highlights a unique intersection of celebrity culture, fan…
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What were the financial signals you mentioned about spindlehorse?
Mostly tinkering with hypotheticals in the past to estimate the financial health of Spindlehorse remaining indie or not, and I didn't think it was going to remain profitable based on YouTube views and the state of the SharkRobot merch store and how many items were still available after seasonal sales as well as how long the merch had been listed for.
If there are preorders for certain merch and it is still for sale after the seasonal drop has ended, then there was a base amount of stock purchased and the presale was a "Just in case we sell all of our stock" which they didn't. And for cheap items like pins to be both limited presale and still for sale a year later, that's not looking all that good.
I basically said that Spindlehorse can expect to make just enough to pay for an episode of Helluva Boss based on views, but that the supplemental pay from merch sales were looking dismal, so it wasn't looking profitable and her best bet in the next year or so (it was 2024 at the time when Oops came out) was to sell the show.
Trump's tariff Coup
Were you surprised by Trump's radical U-turn on announcing tariffs?
THAT was the coup! The Trump Media and Technology Group closed up 22.67 percent after the announcement that the tariffs will be suspended for 90 days. Trump's 53 percent stake in the company rose by 415 million US dollars that day.
This jump in Trump Media's share price was only surpassed by government advisor Elon Musk's Tesla shares. Tesla's share price rise of almost 23 percent on Wednesday increased Musk's fortune by 20 billion US dollars.
"It soon became apparent that financial speculation, unmoored from any legal or community restraints, was capable of producing results that seemed to verge on insanity. The Dutch Republic, which pioneered the development of stock markets, had already experienced this in the tulip mania of 1637 - the first of a series of speculative 'bubbles'" - David Graeber, Debt: The First 5,000 Years, page 341
Hoy, la tiranía económica global del capitalismo financiero especulativo, que utiliza a los gobiernos nacionales (y a sus políticos) como capataces de esclavos y a los medios mundiales como sus distribuidores de droga, esta tiranía, cuyo único fin es la ganancia y la incesante acumulación, nos impone una visión: un diseño de la vida febril, precario, despiadado e inexplicable
John Berger
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Pope Francis on Monday denounced those getting rich through speculation in financial markets, calling on them to use their investments for the good of humanity. "It is increasingly intolerable that financial markets are shaping the destiny of peoples rather than serving their needs, or that the few derive immense wealth from financial speculation while the many are deeply burdened by the consequences," he said. Francis singled out speculation in agricultural markets calling it "a scandal which seriously compromises access to food on the part of the poorest members of our human family". Source: AFP
Andrew Haldane, the executive director of stability at the Bank of England, did a simple analysis that demonstrated that banks couldn’t even begin to pay for the damage they did to society as a whole via periodic financial crises that result in the loss of jobs and the destruction of savings. That means the financial services industry as now constituted is negative value added from a societal perspective. It is purely extractive. Any reforms that reduce its ability to do damage would be hugely productive. But those are precisely the sort of reforms that badly captured governments and cowardly or corrupt regulators have refused to implement.
Yves Smith
