#deathsantis

LOL what did DeathSantis expect?

House of Memes (gmotd.tumblr.com) 2021-08-26

Unless Democrats pull a California and run a celebrity, there’s really nobody who stands a chance in 2022.  There are no major contenders this cycle, no household names, no recognizable faces, nobody with real gravitas.  2018 was our best shot with Andrew Gillum, the popular young progressive mayor of our state capital, and he came closer than any Democrat this century, but the usual Republican fuckery put him at a disadvantage he couldn’t escape from.  There’s too much voter suppression, especially in Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach Counties, Democratic strongholds which are starting to lean red because Cubans are the only Hispanic demographics who consistently vote Republican.

Of the candidates who have declared their intention to run, none have Wikipedia articles, so that tells you what you need to know about them right off the bat.  Of the candidates who expressed interest but haven’t declared yet, I think the one with the best shot is ironically Charlie Crist of all people; he was our governor from 2007 to 2011, a Republican who became an independent at the end of his term.  He was defeated in 2010 by Prick Scott the Bald Bastard, and became a Democrat shortly thereafter; he is now a congressman.  I could see him maybe, MAYBE making a comeback to retake his seat for another term, but that would be such a downgrade for the Democrats from 2018 that they would still get their asses handed to them.  What does electability even mean?  Anyone is electable if they have enough money!  Donald Trump proved that.  Charlie Crist is a compromise candidate, a middle-of-the-road nobody who is safe but boring, and being boring is the worst thing a candidate can be.

If I had to pick someone that might stand a chance and is moderately popular, I would go with Val Demings.  She’s a congresswoman who defeated a republican incumbent in 2016, was an impeachment manager against Trump in his first trial, and a contender for VP under Biden, though he chose the more nationally recognizable Harris instead.  I think that given enough support from the state and national party, she could give DeSantis a run for his money, but we have a Republican Secretary of State and a Republican Attorney General, so unless DeSantis makes a HUGE stumble in the next few months and gives it to the Democrats in a landslide, I don’t expect the Democrats to eke by with a victory.  If it looks like it will be at all close, the Republicans will close more polling places and shorten early voting periods in blue counties, disenfranchising black and Hispanic voters en masse.  They’ll even go so far as to stop counting votes, or “lose” boxes of votes which will be found after the election has already been certified; there’s been systemic fuckery since Jeb Bush gave Florida to his brother in 2000, and I don’t see it ending anytime soon, especially since every statewide Republican is a trumpist who thinks the election was stolen from him.  They won’t let a Democrat win quietly ever again, they’ll go down fighting whether they lose by an inch or a mile.

DeSantis is ridiculously popular with Republicans; he’s more of a Donald Trump Jr than the real Donald Trump Jr is!  If Trump doesn’t run again in 2024, DeSantis will be a frontrunner.  It’s like in 2020 we knew it would be between Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders; all the rest were just spoilers.  In 2024 it will be DeSantis vs someone even younger.  Not Cruz, probably someone like Josh Hawley or Marjorie Taylor Green.  That wasn’t your question, but it’s important to understand that if he’s a shoo-in for 2024, he’s definitely a shoo-in for 2022.  Barring some major Roy Moore-esque scandal, he’s probably gonna get re-elected (though if it didn’t appear in 2018, it’s not likely to appear in 2022).  Georgia may have shifted slightly bluer, but Florida is definitely shifting redder.  And that’s not to say that Georgia is now some Democratic stronghold; 2020 was an anomaly, it won’t be repeated, especially after the districts are gerrymandered even worse than they are now.