#dear santa...

Will I poke my eye with these? For sure.

Do I need these? No.

Do I want these? You better BELIEVE IT.

As I was saying...

The White House: Fact Sheet

REBALANCING TRADE WITH CHINA: This week in the Republic of Korea, President Donald J. Trump reached a trade and economic deal with President Xi Jinping of China—a massive victory that safeguards U.S. economic strength and national security while putting American workers, farmers, and families first.

This historic agreement includes Chinese commitments to:

Halt the flow of precursors used to make fentanyl into the United States.

Effectively eliminate China’s current and proposed export controls on rare earth elements and other critical minerals.

End Chinese retaliation against U.S. semiconductor manufacturers and other major U.S. companies.

Open China’s market to U.S. soybeans and other agricultural exports.

...

Note

I think much of the heavy foreign lifting is/had been lifted with/on papers (?)... The markets are dry and scared, and surprise may be in the cards (?). Too little (trillions: 10cyn, 8usd,..~40tril/globally) and/or too late?...

Is this a 40 trillion dollar global paper surprise? 🤔...

Note 2

As per Gemini:

US Current Ratio (September 2025)

Based on the latest available data from the Federal Reserve: 

M1 was approximately $18.913 trillion.

M2 was approximately $22.213 trillion. 

The ratio of M1 to M2 is roughly 18.913 / 22.213, which is approximately 85.1%. 

The "others" (M2 minus M1) amount to approximately $3.3 trillion, or about 14.9% of M2.

As per Gemini:

China's Current Ratio (2025)

M1 to M2 Ratio: The difference between China's M1 and M2 growth was -1.2% as of September 2025. Another report noted the gap has narrowed to minus 2% in October 2025.

Meaning of the Ratio:

M2 growth is faster than M1 growth: This is the current situation in China.

Interpretation: This suggests that while the overall money supply (M2) is increasing, the most liquid forms of money (M1) are not growing as quickly. This can reflect a more cautious economic sentiment, with individuals and businesses holding funds in savings and time deposits rather than in demand deposits.

Etc...

Note 3

If attempting to redefine the count, it could look something like the following(in trillions):

M1 + M2: US : 8 + ~9.5 (17.5ish)

M1 + M2: China : 10 + 9.88 (19.9ish)

M1 + M2: World : 22 + (?ish)

Note 4

As per Gemini:

A U.S. President sees 🫳🏾four 👀 federal budgets during a single four-year term in office.

First Budget: The President takes office in January, well after the previous President has submitted a budget request for the upcoming fiscal year (which started the previous October). The new President must manage the remainder of this fiscal year's spending, which was largely planned by the prior administration and Congress.

Budgets 2, 3, and 4: These are the three full annual budgets for which the President will submit a formal proposal to Congress on the first Monday in February of their first, second, and third years in office. These budgets cover the three full fiscal years (FY) that begin during their term.

Fifth Budget (Proposed): The President submits a budget proposal for the next fiscal year (which will start in October of their fourth year in office). However, the implementation and negotiation of this budget fall primarily to the next administration or the President themselves if re-elected.

Donald Trump is currently on the first budget cycle of his second term in office. As of November 15, 2025, the U.S. government is operating under the Fiscal Year (FY) 2026 budget, which began on October 1, 2025.

Here is the breakdown of the budgets associated with his current term:

FY 2025 Budget: When Donald Trump took office on January 20, 2025, the government was already operating under the FY 2025 budget, which ran from October 1, 2024, to September 30, 2025. The funding for this fiscal year had largely been determined by the previous administration and Congress.

FY 2026 Budget: The President's primary involvement began with the proposal for the FY 2026 budget, which was submitted to Congress in early 2025. This is the first full budget cycle that his administration is directly overseeing the implementation of.

Subsequent Budgets: During the remainder of his current four-year term (ending January 2029), he will propose and oversee the implementation of the FY 2027, FY 2028, and FY 2029 budgets, for a total of four full fiscal year cycles during his term, plus part of the FY 2025 budget.

Note 5

🎶...Three more budgets bottles on the wall, if one of the budgets should happen to fall, 2 budget bottles remain on the wall...🎶

Question: assuming constant spend, what is 4(M1+M2) across global currency markets?... Hundreds of Trillions?...

Either way...

...

In closing, I hope this letter finds you well.

Signed kindly,