Fifth Best NASDAQ May Performance Ever — What a Strong May Could Mean the Rest of 2026
NASDAQ just posted an exceptional month, gaining 8.36% in May 2026. That performance places May 2026 firmly in the top third of all May returns since 1971, joining years such as 1997, 2003, 2020, 2024, and 2025. When the NASDAQ finishes May in its strongest third of historical performances, the remainder of the year has generally been favorable.
Among the 19 completed years in the top third category:
– NASDAQ gained an average of 5.4% during the rest of the year. – Full-year returns averaged an impressive 19.1%. – Finished the year higher 84.2% of the time.
While June performance has been mixed, averaging just 1.2%, the larger takeaway is that strong May gains have historically been associated with positive trends extending well beyond the immediate weeks ahead. One reason this relationship may exist is that exceptionally strong May performance often reflects improving economic conditions, strengthening earnings expectations, and renewed investor confidence. In many cases, these forces do not disappear when the calendar flips to June.
Some of the strongest examples include:
1997: May gained 11.1%, followed by a 12.1% advance for the rest of the year. 2003: May gained 9.0%, and NASDAQ surged another 25.5% through year-end. 2020: May rose 6.8%, leading to a powerful 35.8% gain during the remainder of the year. 2024: A strong May was followed by another 15.4% advance through year-end.
Of course, history is not perfect. Years such as 1990 and 2008 remind that powerful rallies can still be interrupted by economic shocks, recessions, or financial crises. Strong momentum improves the odds, but it does not eliminate risk.
What It Could Mean for 2026
When NASDAQ delivers one of its strongest Mays of the year, it has often been a sign of underlying market strength rather than a warning of an imminent top. With May 2026 ranking among the best on record, history suggests investors may want to be prepared for some normal volatility in June but remain focused on the bigger picture. A strong May has frequently been followed by additional gains in the months ahead, making this another bullish signal worth respecting rather than fading.
