#atomic diplomacy

Shit, shoulda answered this like a year ago.

Lmao, I’ve kinda stopped watching politics but my take?

I called it way earlier.

As far as I’ve been able to tell, the North Koreans rely quite heavily on outside nations for both weaponry, and at desperate times, food, even from such hated enemies as the western bloc, including the United States.

Much like an enraged toddler, the Nork government stirs up trouble when it requires something, or to simply remind the planet, and more importantly, its regional neighbors, that they still exist. While not a threat to the United States, they are certainly a threat to U.S. interests, and U.S. allies.

As for why they’re still here? The regime does an good enough job ripping apart internal dissidence and throwing it into a camp to be raped, starved and worked until they die. So from that perspective, internal revolt from the people is unlikely. A martial revolt could occur, certainly, and I’m quite confident there are actors (read as generals and other top brass) that are waiting in the wings once tubby dies, and they will more than likely decide to keep a good thing going, from their perspective.

The Chinese, and to a lesser extent the Russians, in my opinion, are keeping the Norks undisturbed as a buffer zone from the west. The Chinese government know that if the (99 red) balloons go up tomorrow and war is declared, the US and co. will have to deal with the force of the Noko military. Sure they’d get stomped, but it would suck up valuable resources. I should mention there is quite some trade between the Russian federation, China, and the Nokos.

As for the Japanese government? They’ve been mostly keeping to themselves since 45, and while they may squabble with China over a few islands, they certainly aren’t going to try and take on the Norks alone. They’ve already dealt with one, relatively small nerve agent/chemical weapons attack, they don’t want to have the norks rain death upon their cities. As for whether the North Koreans have a chemical weapons program up to stuff? That’s a different question, but mustard gas ain’t that hard to make for a government, and I’m sure the Japanese don’t want to take that risk, so we can rule them out.

The South Korean government doesn’t want the military option as quite frankly, in the event of a war, despite the best efforts of counter battery teams and airstrikes, the capital of South Korea would be hit fairly badly by artillery. How badly? Depends on the reaction time of allied forces, and the a lot of factors for the North Koreans. Still, probably well into the millions in terms of property damage, and at least a few hundred lives. 

Not to mention the nightmare that would be re-integration. The people in the north have been indoctrinated to the point that the cultural shock may well cause mass suicide, resistance, or at the very least, heavy depression.  The bill alone would be worth crying about. Looking at the price tag of the unification of the two Germany’s and one can only imagine how difficult and expensive it would be for the Korea’s to unify.

As for an American nuclear response? Well, they certainly have the ability to do it, but it would, unprompted be a public relations nightmare. People are still quite bitter about the last time the U.S. has used Atomic weaponry, and they had a damn good series of reasons to use em last time, so I can’t quite imagine the sheer uproar that would, well, erupt from a decision to drop Thermonuclear devices onto a nation, unprompted, even one as foul as the Noko State.

As for a conventional military assault on the regime, with US and allies rolling in together? I don’t think they’d collapse as quickly as the Iraqi’s during Desert Storm. They’ve had a lot longer to prepare, and if it merges into a guerrilla war, I’m not saying we’d be seeing Operation Downfall tier casualties, but it certainly may not be a cake walk.

As for my thoughts on the Noko Atomic program? First strike options for Blufor are most certainly on the table, at least from a military perspective. As far as I can tell, their nuclear program is not hardened (perhaps from artillery, but good luck against a regular B-61, let alone a B-53), and could be relatively easily taken out. Now, they do have the road mobile IRBM’s, and even with accuracy not working out too well, and the fact that so far they haven’t been able to mate an atomic war head to it, they still represent a threat by simply what they can carry. Are those IRBM war heads carrying a 1500 pound conventional charge? Or is it carrying some sort of hyper fast spreading genetic plague monster that was smuggled out during the fall of the soviet union and kept in some lab in some shit hole lab 40 klicks north of Pyongyang? That’s what concerns me.

That, and as far as I can tell, they only have what would be classified as Atomic munitions. Not the easiest thing in the world, but certainly easier to make than Thermonuclear munition, which (barring exceptions like dial a yield, etc etc), generally pack a helluva lot more punch.

In short?

The Norks stir up shit as they know no one’s gonna do more than sanction them, and they’ve found they can get what they want by doing so. Nobody in the region, all for their own reasons, wants to do anything to either deal with them, or enrage them.

So far the only thing that seems to effect the regime is cutting off their grain supplies for the west, and cutting off their coal supplies for the Chinese. (At least from what I can remember). And both of those put, either directly or indirectly, pressure on the North Korean people, and will, directly or indirectly cause deaths through starvation, accidents, and repercussions. And I think for most people, their issue is not with the North Korean people, their issue is with Tubby and his gang of generals.

Tough to say.

I certainly feel bad for the Noko common man though. 

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