#aras11

So, the polling stations are officially closed. I hope you all went out and voted, if you didn't there is a 100% chance that you aren't reading this. Now, I shall take a look into my crystal ball and lay down some predictions of the presidential election and the referendum results.

The Presidential Election:

Is there really any doubt who is going to win? It's going to be Michael D. If it isn't I'll eat all my hats. BUT I think Sean Gallagher might top the poll after the first count. *gasps* I think there is still quite a lot of support out there for Gallagher in spite of his most recent controversy and these people aren't going to change their mind. So, after the first count I expect it to be very close between Gallagher and Higgins. Higgins will then hoover up preference votes faster that the European Union absorbs dept. It will at first appear close. Then it will be an easy win for Higgins. I predict that the results will be as follows:

1. Michael D Higgins

2. Sean Gallagher

3. Martin McGuinness

4. Gay Mitchell

5. David Norris

6.Mary Davis

7. Dana Rosemary Scallon 

Bare with me a second... I know what you're all thinking, "Gay Mitchell at number 4?! Didn't he poll 2% on the Ray D'Arcy poll yesterday?!". Yes, Mitchell has been polling terribly so far but there is a huge die hard Fine Gael fanbase out there and they will come out as they've probably done for years and just straight up vote FG. If he manages to round up the core FG vote there is a chance he might even wind up 3rd. However, there is the risk that the middle class FG vote will migrate to another candidate in order to keep Martin McGuinness out of power at any cost.

Martin McGuinness will poll very well in first preferences, maybe even up to 20% but he isn't transfer friendly at all. I can't see many people who would be traditional party voters even giving him a preference. No matter of his result Sinn Fein have achieved what they set out to do, legitimise Sinn Fein as a strong, top tier party in the Republic.

Norris, too little too late in my opinion. He preformed extremely well in the last Frontline Debate but after his disastrous performances on the other debates and the controversies so far he just isn't in with an actual shot.

Mary Davis has run one of the worst campaigns in history. For a woman with such shining credentials and such a high stature amongst the community before the election she really has turned the entire thing around. From the get go she came across elitist and unlikeable. Despite better performances latter in the campaign she found it hard to shake off this image. It's a shame really.

Dana Rosemary Scallon represents something that no longer exists in this country and hasn't truly existed since Eamon De Valera left office. The idea of a conservative, protectionist, Catholic Ireland isn't something that appeals to the electorate. I respect her for having the bravery to put herself forward as a candidate and standing for something she believes in. If only she had of ran in the early 80's, maybe then she would have been in with a chance.

The Referendum:

In relation to the referendums, I predict a Yes on Judicial Pay reform but a No on giving the power of enquiry to the Oireachtas. The electorate just doesn't know enough about it to justify passing it. It was terribly handled by the Referendum Commission and by the Government parties. I didn't even get my information leaflet in the door. Hardly acceptable and if it doesn't pass it is their own fault. 

As for turnout, it pains me to say, I expect around 45%-50% countrywide and as low as high 30's in certain urban areas. A shockingly low number but the combination of rather underwhelming candidates and a lack of information about the referenda have fuelled his.

The only thing lower than the turnout is my likelihood of being in any way correct. I hope you all enjoy the count and are happy with the results but I have the feeling that most of you are just happy to have it over with. To be honest, so am I.