#apolcalypse

"The February 2021 agreement between the United States and Russia to renew New START for five years is a decidedly positive development. This extension creates a window of opportunity to negotiate a future arms control agreement between the two countries that possess 90 percent of the nuclear weapons on the planet. The United States and Russia also agreed to start two sets of dialogues about how to best maintain 'nuclear stability' in the future: the Working Group on Principles and Objectives for Future Arms Control and the Working Group on Capabilities and Actions with Strategic Effects. These groups have met and in early 2022 are expected to report on initial results of the consultations, aimed at shaping future arms control agreements.

"Another bright spot was the Biden administration's announcements that it would seek to return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) with Iran and offer to enter strategic stability talks with China. Although no talks between North Korea and the United States took place in 2021, the North Koreans have not resumed testing of nuclear weapons or long-range intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). (Tests of shorter-range missiles have continued.) Finally, when the Biden administration began its Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) process, it announced that one specific goal would be to 'reduce the role of nuclear weapons' in US national security policy. ...

"US president [Biden] 'acknowledges climate change as a profound threat and supports international cooperation and science-based policy,' and we've seen a dramatic change in tone from the previous presidential administration. Recognizing that '[t]he effects we are seeing of climate change are the crisis of our generation,' Biden has indeed attempted to move forward quickly, reentering the United States in the Paris Agreement and announcing the United States' updated Paris emission pledge of a 50 percent reduction by 2030. He has also signaled an attentiveness to the connection between climate action and environmental justice, in both the domestic and international contexts. He has committed to making climate investments in disadvantaged communities within the United States, and at the UN General Assembly meeting he pledged to double climate financing to developing countries. ...

"The new US administration has done much to reestablish the role of scientists in informing public policy, and even more to minimize deliberate confusion and chaos emanating from the White House. Thoughtful deliberation—merely a promise in January 2021—appears to be realized more often today."

But this simply isn't enough to reverse the innumerable disasters that Trump caused, and is still causing:

"Despite laudable efforts by some leaders and the public, negative trends in nuclear and biological weapons, climate change, and a variety of disruptive technologies—all exacerbated by a corrupted information ecosphere that undermines rational decision making—kept the world within a stone's throw of apocalypse."

That "corrupted information ecosphere"? It means that Trump is still creating new disasters despite being out of office. Most notably, his endless lying about the 2020 presidential election has undermined both U.S. democracy and global security:

"While the new US administration made progress in reestablishing the role of science and evidence in public policy, corruption of the information ecosystem continued apace in 2021. One particularly concerning variety of internet-based disinformation infected America last year: Waves of internet-enabled lies persuaded a significant portion of the US public to believe the utterly false narrative contending that Joe Biden did not win the US presidential election in 2020. Continued efforts to foster this narrative threaten to undermine future US elections, American democracy in general, and, therefore, the United States' ability to lead global efforts to manage existential risk."

Additionally, the now-infamous January 6 insurrection that Trump incited over this "utterly false narrative" exposed how quickly such a falsehood could lead to a nuclear disaster:

"As the January 6, 2021 insurrection at the US Capitol demonstrated, no country is immune from threats to its democracy, and in a state with nuclear-weapons-usable material and nuclear weapons, both can be targets for terrorists and fanatics. Notably, the insurrectionists came close to capturing Vice President Mike Pence and the 'nuclear football' that accompanies the vice president as the backup system for nuclear launch commands. More than 10 percent of those charged with crimes during the January 6th insurrection were veterans or active service members."

Of course, Trump's disinformation campaigns are not limited to the 2020 election. He's spent years spreading false conspiracy theories and spearheading attacks and accusations against everyone and everything that failed to demonstrate unquestioning support for him, including (but not limited to) scientists, doctors, schools and universities, the judicial system, the intelligence community, and the free press. Innumerable conservatives and other partisans have gleefully continued to promulgate his disinformation, with far-reaching negative consequences:

"Disinformation fomented outside the executive branch—including from some members of Congress and many state leaders—appears to have taken root in alarming and dangerous ways. Large fractions of Congress and the public continue to deny that Joe Biden legitimately won the presidential election, and their views on these matters appear to be hardening rather than moderating. Similar trends regarding COVID-related disinformation are apparent around the world, crippling the ability of public health authorities and medical science to achieve higher vaccination rates. Mask-wearing and social distancing are similarly discouraged by disinformation. ... Political attacks on institutions that provide societal continuity and store hard-won knowledge about how best to deal with problems continue apace."

The risk of a nuclear disaster remains a heightened concern. One area of particular concern was Russia's continued aggression towards Ukraine... and this was back on January 20, 2022, before Russia actually went ahead and invaded:

"Ukraine remains a potential flashpoint, and Russian troop deployments to the Ukrainian border heighten day-to-day tensions."

Trump's repeated refusal to impose sanctions on Russia, and his unilateral withdrawal from two of the three arms treaties with Russia (and his stated intention to let the third expire), are just some examples of how Trump spent his entire term in office allowing Russian aggression to grow essentially unchecked. But Russia is not the world's only nuclear threat. Trump's persistent incompetence in dealing with North Korea--plus his fawning over Kim Jong Un--allowed North Korea to continue to pursue its nuclear ambitions. Iran similarly ramped up its nuclear program after Trump unilaterally withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal. Both countries are contributing to the Doomsday Clock's current setting:

"Other nuclear concerns, including North Korea's unconstrained nuclear and missile expansion and the (as yet) unsuccessful attempts to revive the Iran nuclear deal contribute to growing dangers. ... Iran continues to build an enriched uranium stockpile, insisting that all sanctions be removed before returning to talks with the United States on the JCPOA. The window of opportunity seems to be closing."

Finally, Trump managed to ruin President Biden's laudable progress on climate change, because Trump's conduct in office made it depressingly clear that such progress can be very short-lived:

"Progress achievable through the US political process is highly constrained and fragile, as any subsequent president may try to swing the pendulum backward."