#agnerd

As the harvest gets underway, many of you will be sitting in your combines watching the yield monitor as you move through your fields. It's an exciting moment, especially when yields end up higher than expected. It makes all those hours behind the wheel seem so worthwhile. But probably the most important question in the back of your mind is: 

Should I plant this product again next year? 

It turns out that, like the stock market, a hybrid or variety's past performance does not always indicate future returns. Selecting which genetics to plant next year is probably one of the hardest but also the most important decisions you can make.

To help you think it through, we've written a three part guide to seed selection. This week we're publishing Part One: which data should you look at?

Ford vs Chevy vs Dodge

Many farmers ask us: is there really any difference between the brands? Surely it's just like Ford, Chevy and Dodge - the badge is different but what's under the hood is essentially the same. Our short answer is: not all all. There are quite a lot of differences between brands, but there are actually even more differences within a company's product line.

The truth is that every seed company has a few dogs, a few All Stars, and a few average Joes. The question is: can you figure out which is which and then select the best hybrids and varieties for each field? 

Data, data, data

You alone can decide which data to listen to. Our suggestion is to start out by looking at your combine data - what did you plant? in what soil types? which varieties performed and why?

It's important to have a good view of the genetic packages you will be planting - e.g. the relative maturities you are targeting, technology preferences, plant characteristics, and different soil types. For each of these fields you can create a short list of your preferred products. 

You can then take this short list of products and their on-farm performance and compare it against other field trials. 

Independent, reliable, third-party data

There is a lot of third party trial data out there. But it's hard to know who's data to trust. Let's safely assume that if the company is selling the seed, then they are quite likely to tell you their product is better than everyone else's. And your local retailer / coop is likely to be pushing his favoured product.

We'd suggest that you look to independent third party seed testers like the universities (e.g University of Illinois, Purdue, Iowa State) or FIRST Seed Tests (for full disclosure: Yield Pop works with FIRST and universities to present trial data in an easy to use digital format). 

Admittedly these organisations are also paid by seed companies to run trials, but at least there is no incentive for them to cherry pick the results - once they've planted the trial, they have earned their fee. They let the product speak for itself. 

The important thing here is to make sure they run their trials in a rigorous way with the right number of replications. Also, do they make information available about the planting date, the population density, the fertility program, the amount of local rainfall? All these factors influence the final yield - you need to filter out the noise and focus on the data which is relevant to your farm.

Once you've selected your trusted data sources, the next step is to figure out which numbers to listen to.

A few months ago we reviewed most of the farm management mobile apps out there. At the time, there was one startup we didn't include because they didn't have an iPhone or Android app. Well, now they do and if you haven't already heard about them, then you should take five minutes and read this. They are building a great product and they will quite possibly save you a ton of time and money this season. They are FarmLogs of course. 

FarmLogs

Rating: 5

Link: https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/farmlogs/id644043593?mt=8

Purpose: Everything you need to manage your farm business (forecast and measure profits, track expenses, manage risk and get informed) all in one place.

Price: $0.05/acre per month or $0.50/acre per year

Our take: Just like their web app, the iPhone app looks great, is really easy to use, and is very fast.

To start you need to set up an account via their web app (http://farmlogs.com/) and it's probably easiest to enter all your information from the comfort of your office.  This makes a ton of sense to us. After all, how many farmers are going to do hard core data entry in the field? As such the FarmLogs app is streamlined to let users add incremental information such as logging spray activities, field scouting etc… finally an app which is all about making the work you do in the field simple.

And although none of the information which the farmer can get through the web app such as markets, weather, news commentary is available on the app, but we would expect this to change at some point. 

In January we launched Yield Pop. Our hope is that we can build a virtual version of what farmers have done for thousands of years - exchanging, learning, discussing and sharing problems and solutions with their neighbors and peers. We'd like to thank all the farmers and specialists across the midwest and UK who have graciously given us their time these last few months. We hope you enjoy using it as much as we have building it.   Matthew, Alex, Leo Co-founders Yield Pop Why Yield Pop?  Whenever we tell people from outside the ag industry what we're doing at Yield Pop the conversation usually begins with: but farmers don't use the internet and smart phones do they?  Our first response - just watch this. The better question is not if they use the internet, but rather: how do they use it? Ag x internet: revolution or business as usual? Farmers are not technophobes. If a major new technology delivers significant benefits in yields and profits, they will adopt it rapidly. That is the story of the synthetic fertilisers and GM seeds. However, when it comes to precision ag - the first major trend in IT & ag - adoption has been meager.

Auto-steer, yield maps, and soil sampling might be common place. But as the equipment grows "smarter" and the acronyms longer, few farmers know what to do with the piles of data or whether the investment is worth it. The benefits are not obvious.  The second major IT and ag trend is the mobile revolution. Just a few years ago, no one had ever heard of an iPad. Now it seems that every week we hear of a new farm app: a pest scouting tool, a tank mix calculator, and of course weather & price data.  But when we step back and look at other industries - healthcare, finance, retail - the fact remains that the ag industry's traditional structures and the practices they promote remain largely intact.  Most of these new IT technologies have not delivered significant enough benefits to growers to drive rapid adoption. If we want to sustainably feed (not to mention fuel) 9 billion people by 2050 we need to change more fundamentally. 

The problem with ag as usual  Big Ag has been very good at product innovation and at pushing ever more (expensive) technologies to farmers. New products have undoubtedly helped to boost yields. But many farmers believe that the biggest improvements to their yields, costs, and ultimately profits, will come from a simple improvement in practises: when and at what rate should I apply the PGR? What is the optimum row spacing and planting depth given the variety, my soil and weather conditions? Farmers want to use the internet (and unlock the potential of Big Data) to run their businesses more effectively. But they face four interconnected problems:

Noise: "We are awash with data and information. So how do I find applicable knowledge? And how do I filter out the noise?"

Accessibility: "My systems are not interoperable, the data is scattered and fragmented; I find it very hard to compare products and practises."

Relevance: "Even if I can find the information I'm looking for, how do I interpret it? And is it relevant to my farm?"

Credibility: "How do I know whether I can trust the information? Is this a peer worth listening to? Or a industry specialist trying to sell me something?"

But where to begin? Who is providing such a service?  

Enter Yield Pop The answer is not many. Sure there are neon-green 1990-style bulletin boards and you can browse every ag player's website to find the relevant product information. But we think farmers and all those who help them make decisions deserve better. That's why we're building Yield Pop.  In the last few weeks, we've put a database of more than 35,000 chemicals online so that farmers in the US and UK can easily search, filter and find the right chemical for the right pest. We've also created a space where farmers can connect with their neighbours, peers and industry specialist to discuss and solve problems.