#afspa.

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Why Pakistan always gets our goat? We're confusing public machismo with strategy

Even as the Indian government is groping towards a sensible strategy on dealing with Pakistan, it is stumbling over its own rhetoric in order to show it will not take provocations lying down.

While the Narendra Modi-Ajit Doval doctrine of retaliating against Pakistani provocations on the border with double force is unexceptionable, it is unable to fully reconcile its other strategic initiative – reopening the dialogue – with its own need to project an image of machismo in public.

The foolish decision to detain the separatists of the Hurriyat before releasing them yesterday (20 August) is precisely the kind of empty macho action we don’t need. We have also sent an advisory to Pakistan that meeting the separatists before NSA-level talks is not on.

This is counter-productive. Nothing convinces the Pakistanis to go ahead and do something more than our opposition to it.

Going through these motions of toughness proves nothing as they are devoid of strategic content. If anything, they show the weakness of our position – that we can do nothing when the Pakistanis seek to irritate us. If we are going to jump and scream every time they plant a pin under our butts – like by making a show of talking to the separatists – we are merely displaying our impotence. They know they can easily get under our skins. It gives them an additional handle to manipulate our angry reactions to their advantage.

Why Pakistan always gets our goat? We’re confusing public machismo with strategy

Projecting strength is important, but it is effective only when that power is displayed where it matters, not by hitting out blindly in all directions when provoked. This way our enemy gets the upper hand.

A coherent strategy against Pakistan cannot be tweaked every time to show the domestic public we are not weak. The Congress’ efforts to bait the government on its Pakistan strategy should be ignored, for trying to prove something to the Congress is pointless.

Any strategy to counter Pakistan’s mischief has to be well thought out, consistent, and long-term in nature. It must flow from an understanding of what our enemy wants to achieve, and what is in our own interest. Our problem is we think Pakistan is an irrational power and that no strategy may work with them.

The truth is Pakistan uses its outward shows of irrationality to further a strategy that may be extremely rational from its own perspective.

Pakistan – and especially the Deep State that comprises the army, the ISI and its jihadi fronts – is a “greedy”, ideological state that will not rest without changing the status quo on our borders. But Pakistan is not just about rearranging borders and grabbing the parts of Jammu & Kashmir that are still in our possession.

Pakistan is an all-or-nothing state which seeks victory for the ideology of Islam in addition to grabbing territory. It sees itself as the true successor to Ghazni and Ghori, and its state’s mission as defeating “Hindu India.” This may not be what ordinary Pakistanis want, but it is certainly what Pakistan’s Deep State ideologues want. The Deep State needs Hindu India as an enemy to retain its own power.

  Pakistan’s alleged irrationality and nurturing of dangerous jihadi groups in order to harm India is rooted in the rationality of the aims of the Deep State. Its goals are to ensure the following: retention of effective power in the hands of the army; grabbing what territory it can from India through sweet talk or jihadi action; preventing India from concentrating its energies on economic development and growth; establishing the supremacy of Islam by defeating “Hindu India”, et al.

Just as suicide bombers seek psychic victories rather than real ones, Pakistan has no qualms about destroying itself if, in the process, it can destroy us as well. The reason why jihad is so important to Pakistan is that it knows it cannot defeat India in any normal war.

However illegitimate or irrational we think these aims are, if you do accept these goals, the Pakistani posture of unremitting hostility to India is entirely rational.

So Pakistan will always do the following: send jihadis over for decades on end even if it damages or destroys itself in the process; tie up with any anti-India force (whether a state actor or non-state, which means China and movements like Khalistan) to damage us; plan economic sabotage (this was the real purpose of the 1993 Mumbai blasts, not just revenge for the riots that preceded), distribute of counterfeit currency in India (which also helps finance jihad at no cost beyond printing fake money); exacerbate social tensions inside India by using religious and caste faultlines; prevent civilian governments inside Pakistan from gaining the upper hand with the army and ISI; and – most important – use dialogue as a tool to wrest one-sided concessions from us, and provoke India to suspend talks frequently to show that Pakistan is one seeking peace, and India is the warmonger.

Given this Pakistani strategy, what should be our counter? Our strategy needs many prongs, including a two-faced policy of sweet talk and hard action. The five prongs of this strategy should be the following:

Emphasise growth and the building of economic power as the primary objectives of Indian state policy. The US defeated Communist Soviet Union not by a military buildup alone, but by making western economic supremacy unbeatable. We can beat Pakistan by defeating it economically.

1. Build effective border defence – which actually goes without saying, but is worth repeating – against both Pakistan and China, if necessary by developing tactical nuclear weapons.

2. Strengthen state-level police forces that can take on terrorists without the army or NSG having to step in. The police are our first line of defence against terrorism, but we have weakened them for political reasons. The Gurdaspur terror strike was handled by the police, not the army or NSG.

But the defenders had poor equipment while the terrorists had armour-piercing guns. Clearly, our police forces have to be retrained and strengthened from below to tackle terror.

3. We have to build covert capabilities. This means both better intelligence (both electronic and spies inside Pakistan), and offering covert support to groups fighting for autonomy and independence from Pakistan.

4. We should support the Baloch, Sind, Mohajir and other struggles against Punjabi tyranny. The core of anti-India ideology lies in Punjabi control of the Deep State and jihadism. This needs to be smashed. India has no stake in a united Pakistan.

5. Practice the art of jaw jaw while being ready for war-war. We must keep talking till it hurts them, not us. As a democracy, talking can never hurt us – as long as we don’t expect too much from it.

  Let us be clear: it is Pakistan that wants to abort the NSA-level talks since it does not want to listen to evidence being amassed by Doval & Co about its involvement with terror. We already have one live jihadi in our custody to confront them with. This is why Pakistan is provoking us to get us to break off the talks.

Pakistan’s invites to the separatists for talks are meant to provoke us, not to get ideas from them. They are being used for Pakistan’s purposes. When Pakistan has no further need for them, they will be sold down the Indus river. Our attitude should be one of indifference: sure talk to them if you want. If anything useful comes of it let us know.

In fact, we should stump Pakistan by calling all J&K parties – the mainstream political parties, the Hurriyat and Panun Kashmir, among others – for talks on restoring peace. We can then tell the Hurriyat that they are being used. They may not be easy to convince, but talks should never be a problem.

If Pakistan wants to bring up Kashmir at the NSA-level talks next week, we should be ready: let us talk about Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, Gilgit and Baltistan.

We should talk about when Pakistan plans to give these areas back to us as per the instrument of accession signed by Hari Singh in 1948. We should ask Pakistan why it gave away territory to China without involving us. We should discuss human rights and AFSPA too – and tell Pakistan that as long as they send jihadis over, we are unable to reduce the army’s role in Kashmir and hence the need for AFSPA.

AFSPA can go the minute their murderous “baraatis” return to their homes in Pakistan instead of overstaying their welcome here and tormenting the locals. If they want to bring up so-called Hindu terror, so be it. We can have the pleasure of paying them back in their own coin, by dismissing their evidence as “interesting literature.”

The reason why we should always be pro-dialogue is because that is the one thing the Pakistani army is afraid of. We should never concede anything in the dialogue except when there is genuine give-and-take. There should be no unilateral concessions from our side, as in the past.

This would be a real strategy. Talks are a part of it, and not a tactical bargaining chip to be crushed arbitrarily whenever Pakistan irritates us.

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Explained AFSPA-Disturbed Areas debate in J&K

When NC lawmaker Dr Bashir Ahmad Veeri last week asked that the Disturbed Areas Act (DAA) be revoked, the government said the DAA had lapsed in 1998. Veeri reasoned that in the absence of DAA, the continuation of AFSPA too was “illegal”. The Mufti government retorted that the power to declare an area disturbed was “inherent in AFSPA”. But the issue could be more complex than that. Muzamil Jaleel explains.

What is the J&K Disturbed Areas Act?

The Act was born during Governor’s Rule in 1990 as ‘Governor’s Act No. 12’. In 1992, it was replaced by the J&K Disturbed Areas Act. It was not referred to Parliament’s Consultative Committee on J&K Legislation because of “the urgency of the matter”

What did the Disturbed Areas Act say?

Explained AFSPA-Disturbed Areas debate in J&K

The state government could declare the “whole or any part… of J&K” as a “disturbed area”, in which any magistrate or police officer of the rank of S-I or Head Constable (of Armed Police) or above could “fire upon, or otherwise use force, even to the causing of death, against any person who is indulging in any act which may result in serious breach of public order”. J&K Police could destroy any building they thought was being used, or could be used to carry out attacks. The Act made police immune from prosecution without prior sanction from the state government.

Why did it lapse?

In 1997, when Farooq Abdullah was chief minister, the legislative Assembly ratified the law for one year. But in October 1998, it was allowed to lapse in response to a huge wave of resentment against the misuse of its draconian provisions, especially in Kashmir, where police and armed forces were repeatedly accused of fake encounters, custodial killings and enforced disappearances.

What is the Armed Forces Special Powers Act?

AFSPA was enacted by Parliament on September 11, 1958. It was first implemented in the Northeast, and then in Punjab. In September 1990, Parliament passed the Armed Forces (Jammu and Kashmir) Special Powers Act, which was “deemed to have come into force” retrospectively from July 5, 1990.

When is AFSPA applicable?

Only after an area has been declared “disturbed”. The power to declare a territory “disturbed” initially lay with the states, but passed to the Centre in 1972. Section 3 of AFSPA (in J&K) says that an area can be declared disturbed if it is the “opinion of the Governor of the state or the central government” which “makes the use of armed forces in aid of the civil power necessary”.

What are the provisions of AFSPA?

The “armed forces” may shoot to kill or destroy a building on mere suspicion. A non-commissioned officer or anyone of equivalent rank and above may use force based on opinion and suspicion, to arrest without warrant, or to kill. He can continued… fire at anyone carrying anything that may be used as a weapon, with only “such due warning as he may consider necessary”. Once AFSPA is implemented, “no prosecution… shall be instituted except with the previous sanction of the central government, in respect of anything done or purported to be done” under this Act.

Does the absence of DAA have an implication for the legality of AFSPA in J&K?

The J&K government has two ways to declare an area “disturbed”. It could enact the DAA, or it could issue a notification under Section 3 of AFSPA. To this extent, the Mufti government is right when it says that the lapse of DAA has nothing to do with the promise to “denotify disturbed areas” because the power to declare an area disturbed is “inherent in AFSPA”.

So what is the debate about?

What the government isn’t saying is that there isn’t a valid notification under Section 3 of AFSPA declaring any part of J&K as disturbed for more than a decade now. In November 1997, the Supreme Court, while upholding the constitutional validity of AFSPA, said that “Section 3… does not confer an arbitrary or unguided power to declare an area as a ‘disturbed area’, and that “a declaration under Section 3 has to be for a limited duration and there should be periodic review of the declaration before the expiry of six months”.

In August 2001, the Home Ministry added districts of Jammu (besides those in the Valley) to the list of disturbed areas. According to J&K Law Secretary Mohammad Ashraf Mir, another notification was issued in 2005.

However, constitutional lawyer and senior PDP leader Muzaffar Hussain Baig says that if a notification was not issued afresh after six months, AFSPA would be “illegal”. Even if a fresh notification were to be issued now, “it won’t have retrospective effect”, he said.

What are the ramifications of this situation?

In the absence of a valid notification under Section 3 of AFSPA declaring an area as disturbed, AFSPA can’t be implemented. Theoretically then, every case in which AFSPA was invoked during this period (when the notification had expired after the stipulated six months) and armed forces personnel secured immunity from prosecution, could be challenged in court.

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Will gradually repeal AFSPA from J&K denotify certain areas under the Act, says CM Mufti Sayeed

In a statement that could lead to fresh trouble with its ally Bharatiya Janata Party, Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Mufti Mohammad Sayeed said that his government will gradually repeal the contentious Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) from the state.

“Keeping in view the improving security scenario, the state government will examine the need for denotifying ‘disturbed areas’, which have been free from militancy-related incidents for quite some time,” Sayeed said.

Will gradually repeal AFSPA from J&K denotify certain areas under the Act, says CM Mufti Sayeed

“Any move to withdraw AFSPA will be a gradual one after taking everyone on board, including the Army,” he added.

AFSPA gives special powers to the Army to conduct searches and arrests without any warrant in disturbed areas. He also said his government is not against the Army acquiring the land but they want the forces to return the land which is not being used by them.

In a U-turn from his earlier statement, Sayeed gave credit to the Election Commission of India and the people for free and fair polls in the state. “Pakistan, Hurriyat and militants allowed conducive atmosphere for Assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir,” he had said the next day after assuming charge as the CM.

Several statements from Sayeed and his party – the Peoples Democratic Party – have brought the BJP in the dock since he took over as the CM. A group of eight PDP MLAs had issued a statement raking up the issue of Afzal Guru’s hanging. “PDP has always maintained that late Afzal Guru’s hanging was travesty of justice and constitutional requirements/process was not followed in hanging him out of turn,” the statement said.

The BJP was also left red-faced when Sayeed credited Pakistan, the state government without consulting the Central government released hardline Kashmiri separatist leader Masarat Alam from Baramulla jail. Alam is known to be the man who organised the anti-India protests of 2010 in the Valley that saw the death of 112 people.

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Not just a budget session gimmick: We should appreciate the new inclusive Modi

Not just a budget session gimmick We should appreciate the new inclusive Modi

The first aftertaste of defeat has had a salutary effect on Prime Minister Narendra Modi. He has been reaching out to both national and international adversaries. The latest effort to seek a consensus on contentious issues through the Budget session reveals a striking departure for the man who made frequent headlines with his contempt for the Opposition.

“The nation looks at Budget session with hopes and aspirations; it is collective responsibility of all parties to ensure it runs smoothly. I assure all parties that issues raised by them will be taken up for discussion in Parliament,” Modi told the all-party meeting on the eve of the Budget session. Parliamentary Affairs Minister Venkaiah Naidu supplemented his leader’s effort. “There is a consensus on four to five ordinances, but some parties had reservations on land acquisition. We are ready to discuss everything,” he said.

Will the Delhi stagger actually accelerate the reforms? His supporters believe the jolt will strengthen the BJP’s commitment to bring economic reforms. But little can be achieved without humouring the Opposition. Hence the new approach that comes on the heels of the visit to Saifai to participate in the engagement of Mulayam Singh Yadav’s grand nephew. The images of that visit and the bonhomie with both Lalu Prasad Yadav and Mulayam Singh Yadav’s families flooded the social media with curious comments. Indian political ethos has always applauded such gestures. Many others saw the whole episode as a PR exercise before the Budget session.

The transformation of Modi has evoked three kinds of reactions. Some see it as a genuine sobering on exposure to international realities and the nation’s disapproval of authoritarian and majoritarian politics. Some others feel the change is prompted by the emerging compulsions. A third section believes the change is brief till the party wins enough support in Rajya Sabha.

Even if Modi has not become as inclusive and humble as what is being projected by the media, he has at least learnt to uphold international political and cricketing decorum. His critics need to appreciate that.

In a gesture that evoked misgivings among the Hindutva hardliners, the Prime Minister called up heads of the cricket playing members of SAARC and wished them luck for the world cup cricket tournament. Modi’s call was received positively by Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. What provoked strong reactions from the RSS and its affiliates is obviously the next move to cosy up with Pakistan through secretary level parleys. This surprised even the moderates as the Modi dispensation had cancelled earlier round talks with that country for opening the door for separatist elements.

Modi, who began his prime ministerial innings by inviting the leaders from many countries, including an inimical Pakistan, couldn’t have done it as a political tactic. Coming so soon after Barack Obama’s visit, it also led to speculation that US wanted India to make up with Pakistan.

On domestic front, Modi’s belated warning to religious fanatics led many to believe that he was putting RSS in its place. “Modi’s comments on religious freedom are prompted by the attacks on temples in the US by extremists Christians. The attacks on churches in India have produced a reaction there. This has set off alarm among the diaspora, who are very strong Modi supporters. The RSS is realizing that we live in a small world. Fanatic action in India can result in problems for Indians in other countries,” says Dr Juzar Bandukwala, a social activist from Baroda.

The Kashmir elections have also thrown up some obligations. While the RSS wanted no compromise of removal of Article 370 and AFSPA, the BJP is willing to with the PDP to form the government. The tactical retreat on the crucial issues is apparently to come to power in a state and thereby raise its tally in Rajya Sabha.

Modi can never be expected to be a Nehru; the personalities are too different, as are the times. He can’t even match Atal Bihari Vajpayee in statesmanship for the same reasons. But if he is able to set his own standard in inclusivity in the face of fanatic parivar members he will have left his imprint.

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Army, RSS oppose PDP demands on AFSPA, Article 370: Will BJP walk away from J&K alliance?

  Army, RSS oppose PDP demands on AFSPA, Article 370 Will BJP walk away from J&K alliance

With power sharing talks between the PDP and BJP seemingly at an impasse, the big question on everyone’s minds is whether Jammu and Kashmir, which held state assembly elections in December will actually get a government. PDP spokesperson Naeem Akhtar told reporters, “We (PDP) have more issues of convergence… and a few issues, one or two are there, on which consensus has not emerged as yet. Attempts are being made by both the sides to reach consensus on them.” “Both the parties are trying to resolve the areas of divergence and difference as we feel that the government which is formed should be purposeful government. As soon as we feel that we have overcome major differences, we will take a decision”, he added. PDP President Mehbooba Mufti, who has been in the national capital since last weekend, on Wednesday met Finance Minister Arun Jaitley. The meeting took place at Jaitley’s residence. The sticking points are reportedly AFSPA, which the PDP wants removed, and Article 370 which the BJP has been strongly against. In comments to the media on Wednesday, the PDP said that talks were on to achieve a “consensus” on “left out one or two issues” but refused to commit to a time frame in which these could be resolved. The PDP had released an 11-point demand list, which includes points such as negotiation with the Hurriyat and “citizenship rights for displaced Hindus from Pakistan, settled in Jammu since 1947,” which could make any tie-up between the BJP and PDP in J&K an uneasy one, Times of India reported. It also demanded status quo on Article 370 and the removal of AFSPA. Complicating the mix further, are reports suggesting that the RSS had opposed any dilution in the BJP’s stand on the Article 370 that accords special status to J&K and AFSPA. Former RSS ideologue, KN Govindacharya, also slammed the talks, calling them ‘absolutely immoral’. “Such alliances are short term gain, long term loss. It is totally unprincipled. Specially a party like BJP, which claims of ideology should desist from this”, he was reported as saying by PTI. Meanwhile the army has also chimed in, saying that they would be against any move to ‘revoke’, ‘partially withdraw’ or ‘dilute’ AFSPA, reported Economic Times. According to the report: “Brushing aside any need for a ‘political gesture or initiative'” on the matter, the Army says any dilution in AFSPA safeguards would be “premature” at this stage since Pakistan still has 44 terror-training camps directed against India on its soil, with at least 17-18 of them still operating round-the-clock. “Yes, violence levels in J&K are certainly down, with the state polls being held without any major incident. But the government should adopt a wait-and-watch policy to ensure there is no major terror blowback,” said an official. Interestingly, it was the army’s strong objection to the removal of AFSPA that also prevented UPA Home Minister P Chidambaram from making amendments to the act after demands from the J&K government. The massive defeat of the BJP in the Delhi Assembly elections has also led the central party leadership to address the concerns of the state unit leaders, according to PTI. State unit BJP leaders have opposed any surrender by the party on Article 370, AFSPA and rehabilitation of West Pakistan Refugees fearing the base of the party will be eroded in Jammu region. The region has given the party 25 out of the 37 MLAs from for the Saffron party. The PDP meanwhile has not given up hope just yet. PDP spokesperson Naeem Akhtar told reporters, “Mufti Sahib (PDP chief Mufti Mohammad Sayeed) has said we need to form an alliance with BJP and that should be an opportunity, a historic opportunity to get Kashmir out of this imbroglio. It is an opportunity for the country, J-K and the entire region how can we bring this state out of the state of unrest. We should convert this mandate into an opportunity”. In fact, this analysis report by the Indian Express suggests that it has been the PDP, rather than the BJP which has been climbing down from its demands, despite the public release of its 11 point list. It notes that in matters such as Article 370 for instance, the PDP has revised its demand from “self-rule, demilitarisation, joint mechanisms between the two Kashmirs, a porous LoC for people on either side” to only ask the BJP to agree to status quo on Article 370. Even in terms of Pakistani refugees in the valley, the PDP has said it favours these refugees getting such rights on “humanitarian grounds”. Of course, there is the possibility that the deal may just fall through and the state will remain under Governor’s rule. In which case, the Express report says, it may just be advantage PDP. In the meantime, the biggest loser of this situation remain the people of the state, who turned out in record numbers to vote in a new administration. With no government, and an unfunded gap of over Rs 5,000 crore in overall resources all new developmental projects in the state have already been stopped. But with so many external factors also influencing the decision, what the outcome will be, is anyone’s guess.

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BJP-PDP talks trip on Afspa revocation

The BJP-PDP government formation has allegedly hit a road block over the former’s demand of partial revocation of AFSPA.

Sources say the two parties are trying to arrive at a consensus on contentious issues such as Article 370 and AFSPA.

“While the BJP has agreed to most things, our party is insisting on wanting to word the Common Minimum Programme (CMP) a certain way. It’s the written document which is causing some trouble,” said a PDP source privy to the dialogue.

BJP-PDP talks trip on Afspa revocation

Sources say while both parties have agreed in principle to revocation of AFSPA from peaceful areas, whether to call it withdrawal or revocation in the CMP was causing the trouble. The two parties are also trying to reach a common ground on Article 370.

Although leaders insist the dialogue process with BJP was not affected by the outcome of the Delhi polls, insiders insist PDP is in a better bargaining position.

Back-channel negotiations had been fast tracked with top PDP leadership in Delhi. Though the Mehbooba faction insists she was in Delhi to attend the reception of Amit Shah’s son, insiders say the trip is more to do with finalising CMP.

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PDP seeks assurance from prospective partners over Art 370

Hinting that it is ready to do business with BJP, the PDP, which has emerged as the single largest party in the Assembly elections, today sought assurance from its prospective partners over contentious issues like safeguarding Article 370 and revocation of AFSPA.

PDP seeks assurance from prospective partners over Art 370