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Visita ao The Foundling Museum, museu do Foundling Hospital, organização de caridade britânica fundada em 1739 com o objetivo de ser o lar para crianças cujas famílias estivessem impossibilitadas de manter e cuidar do menor. O museu fornece treinamento, programas de mentoria e projetos criativos visando transformar a vida das crianças acolhidas. Kate se tornou patrona do museu em 2019 | 19.01.2022

First update in a good while, I know.

Let me begin with the broad market, using the S&P 500 ($SPX) as a proxy.

The indicator at the top is the standard RSI(14), but plenty of other oscillators (MACD/PPO, MFI, OBV) are all showing the same thing: the January 5 top was a divergence, on the daily and weekly scales.  Added to that is today’s decline pretty clearly breaking a major support line that goes back to May of 2020.  To top it off, the Ichimoku picture is hanging by a thread, as the cloud is on the verge of turning pink again and is not currently providing any meaningful support.

(And for another bearish sign, the Dow Jones Transportation Index failed to confirm the Jan. 5 high in S&P500 and the DJ Industrials.)

If this doesn’t turn into a whipsaw and get back above the support line pretty directly, a trip to 4,300 seems reasonable.

Now silver, on the other hand...

I got long silver on Dec. 16, the day after the 21.41 bottom (which exactly matched the bottom from Sep. 29!), therefore reasonably close to the bottom of that move.  Somehow I still managed to take a small loss over the next month (less than $100 total), due to what might have been an overly aggressive stop.

But the massive volume increase and rally in yesterday’s session was too much to ignore, especially after the modest two days’ correction to the rally from 21.94, and I got long again.  That position is currently up 3.3%, and I like my chances if the flat cloud top in the chart can provide support.  As you can see, with the lagging span breaking out to the top spot today, all Ichimoku signs are now bullish except for the color of the cloud itself.

However, the longer-term Elliott Wave picture in silver is still a confusing mess I have not sorted out.  I cannot rule out the possibility that the three waves we have so far up from the Dec. 15 bottom at 21.41 are just a double-three correction (to the Nov-Dec selloff from 25.49) that is now approaching its end, especially since what would be the W wave of that, namely the Santa Claus rally from 21.41 to 23.48, still looks like three waves to me.  Additionally, today’s rally took us to the traditional target (C = A) for the advance from 21.94 if it is a zigzag.

So, out of caution, I moved my stop up to just below that 23.48 mark.  Because if that falls, then the only bullish interpretation left would be an expanding leading diagonal, which would be rare (and also would give another buying opportunity on the inevitable correction).  Also I will remain on the lookout for price and volume signs of a top, because I lost out on a huge gain in November by not recognizing the 25.49 top (despite its slow, round evolution giving me plenty of time to do so!) and I don’t wish to repeat that experience.