20230129 - more multi-market musings
S&P500: I wrote two weeks ago that âonly a sustained breakout past that channel would have me thinking of anything bullish right nowâ; well, thereâs a good case to be made for that now being the case, after Jan. 18â˛s triple bearish engulfing was completely retraced and no gap fill sell signal ever materialized; all Ichimoku signs are bullish; that said, the 1-box P&F chart suggests a rather modest upside target of 4,150, and the 3-box chart suggests no upside target whatsoever, so this is probably not worth trying to trade unless thereâs a pullback to backtest that trendline, say around the 4,000 - 4,020 zone with stop under 3,950
Crude oil:Â crude has been amazingly consistent in its failure to close above its Ichimoku cloud (thereâs a flat cloud top at 81.91 and itâs there for the entire month of February besides); Fridayâs session was a bearish double engulfing on the most volume weâve had in a while and completed an RSI triple top; we have a pretty clear triple top in the 82.40 - 82.65 zone, with the traditional target being as low as 74.50; but to make it worth the risk, I need a deeper retrace than what weâre currently seeing premarket
Corn:Â is now showing all bullish Ichimoku signs but is also right up at resistance again; StockCharts.com says the 3-box P&F chart shows a price target of 765, but that seems a bit unbelievable; Iâd like to see a pullback to the conversion line before trying anything here
Soybeans: made a small double bottom, but both that trough and the most recent peak have been below the channel lines, indicating a weakening uptrend; RSI and MACD have gone nowhere but sideways for the past three months even as the price has slowly risen, which does not inspire bullish confidence either; that said, all Ichimoku signs are bullish again; Friday was probably the time to go long if any (when it closed above the baseline on less volume)
Wheat: did not sustain a breakdown below support, despite the heavy volume down day of Jan. 23 that appeared to slice through it; currently sits right at the downtrend supply line from October as well as horizontal resistance from the Jan. 18 high of 760.25; still looks bearish until such time as the downtrend line is broken, but if that does come to pass, then itâs worth noting that it would make the Jan. 23 low an MACD/RSI divergence (arguably on the weekly scale as well!)
Silver: is still chopping sideways, but itâs worth noting now that we got four sessions in the past two weeks with heavier volume than any day since November, and they were all down days; MACD has been sliding for a month and a half, which is not bullish; RSI breaking below 49 could signal a selloff
Bitcoin:Â in my last update I was looking out for a gap fill buy signal, but much like the miracle in Phoenix Wright, the gap fill never happen; all Ichimoku signs are still bullish; this could be seen as five waves up from the Nov. 9 low, so Iâll be looking for a three-wave corrective pullback before trying to go long
TSLA:Â the target of 162 was met and then rocketed past; not sure why I did not go long on Jan. 19; that said, Fridayâs session had the highest volume in two years(!) and certainly looks like a buying climax, so with any luck there will be a selloff soon that provides a better entry point; itâs also worth noting that we have now had three gaps up since the Jan. 6 low, which usually implies some backfilling to come
AMZN:Â
the downtrend line from August is now broken, even if not particularly flashily so
weâre coming up on resistance at 105 again
itâs now fairly obvious that the Dec. 28 and Jan. 6 bottoms were significant RSI/MACD divergences on both the daily AND weekly scales, as well as lining up horizontally with the March 2020 low!
traditional upside target for the presumed bullish flag pattern would be right around 109, or close to the top end of the big October gap
on a longer view, upside target for the double bottom or head-and-shoulders with the neckline at 105 would be 128
given the big divergence (last time it happened was last summer, and on the weekly chart Iâm having trouble finding any examples -- 2014-2015 maybe?), I may just go long anyway, especially if thereâs a pullback
in retrospect Jan. 10 was the day to go long, as it confirmed the gap up from the Jan. 6 bottom and that big divergence (even if on low volume) and also saw RSI break convincingly above resistance















