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16 November 2015

As a slow growth economic environment takes hold across many global markets, the business aviation industry is not immune to its impact. In its 24th annual Global Business Aviation Outlook released today, Honeywell Aerospace (NYSE: HON) forecasts up to 9,200 new business jet deliveries worth $270 billion from 2015 to 2025, with a 3 to 5 percent reduction over the value noted in the 2014 forecast.

"While emerging markets like Brazil continue to be a bright spot for business aviation over the medium term, we have seen weaker demand across other key growth markets, which may affect near-term order and delivery levels," said Brian Sill, president, Business and General Aviation, Honeywell Aerospace. "And while the sluggish economic growth and political tensions are driving a more reserved approach to purchasing, we are seeing operators invest in retrofits and upgrades for their existing aircraft, especially around connectivity, boosting aftermarket opportunities."

Key global findings in the 2015 Honeywell outlook include:

Deliveries of approximately 675 to 725 new jets in 2015, a single-digit percentage growth year over year. The improvement in deliveries expected in 2015 is largely due to new model introductions and an increase in fractional-usage type of aircraft deliveries.

2016 deliveries are projected to be slightly lower reflecting weaker emerging market demand partially offset by deliveries to fractional operators.

Operators surveyed plan to make new jet purchases equivalent to about 22 percent of their fleets over the next five years as replacements or additions to their current fleet.

Of the total new business jet purchase plans, 19 percent are intended to occur by the end of 2016, while 17 and 20 percent are scheduled for 2017 and 2018, respectively.

Operators continue to focus on larger-cabin aircraft classes, ranging from super mid-size through ultra long-range and business liner, which are expected to account for more than 80 percent of all expenditures on new business jets in the near term.

The longer-range forecast through 2025 projects a 3 percent average annual growth rate despite the relatively flat near-term outlook as new models and improved economic performance contribute to industry growth.

Breakdown by Region

Brazil, Russia, India, China (BRIC)

Slight improvements in Chinese and Russian purchase plans compared with last year are not enough to support an improved overall BRIC outlook.

Since Honeywell first began spotlighting the BRIC countries in 2011, industry growth there has lost momentum, reaching just over 21 percent in this year's survey.

Brazil remained a bright spot by recording the strongest new aircraft purchase plans in the survey, though overall buying plans fell year over year.

The combined BRIC countries retain a very strong near-term demand profile with 48 percent of intended new jet purchases scheduled for the next two years.

Asia Pacific

Disappointing growth figures from several major regional economies, ongoing regional tensions and government austerity initiatives dampen operator enthusiasm.

Operators in Asia Pacific report new jet acquisition plans for 14 percent of their fleet, up 2 percent from 2014.

Despite the below-average level, the improved purchase plans yield about a 4 percent share of global demand over the next five years for Asia Pacific.

Nearly 40 percent of respondents are scheduling their new purchases within the first two years of the five-year horizon.

Middle East and Africa

Slightly lowered purchase plans were reported, which is not surprising given another year of significant political upheaval and ongoing conflict in the region in tandem with low oil prices.

The share of projected five-year global demand attributed to the Middle East and Africa remained below its historical range of 4 to 7 percent again this year.

In the Middle East and Africa, 16 percent of respondents said they will replace or add to their fleet with a new jet purchase, down from 18 percent last year.

Regional distress continues to weigh on operators, with potential buyers in the region scheduling their purchases later in the next five-year window compared with last year, with only 21 percent of purchases planned before 2018.

Latin America

The 2015 results remain above the world average, and planned acquisitions remain more front-loaded than the world average.

Twenty-nine percent of the Latin America sample fleet expects to be replaced or added to with new jet purchases, which is 1 point higher than last year's survey.

Nearly 48 percent of this region's projected purchases are timed to happen between 2015 and 2017.

Because of the current purchase plan levels, Latin America's 18 percent share of total projected demand grew slightly compared with a year ago.

North America

New aircraft acquisition plans in North America are very important given the region's size and the unsettled conditions elsewhere around the world.

An estimated 61 percent of projected demand comes from North American operators, up 2 points from the 2014 survey.

New jet purchase plan levels slipped less than 1 point in North America, the industry's largest market, and stand just under the world average of 22 percent.

Current plan levels are somewhat below the averages of the 2008−2012 period. Though buying plan levels are moderate, the fleet and operator base have expanded, supporting demand levels despite a slightly smaller purchase plan rate.

Europe

Operators are still contending with sluggish growth and increased political tensions, a refugee and migrant surge, and depreciated currencies.

Europe's purchase expectations retreated this year to 24 percent.

The European share of estimated global five-year demand also receded compared with historical norms and is now at 14 percent in the 2015 survey.

A comparison of the planned timing for European purchases indicates uneven proportions of demand in the next three years of the five-year window, with about 17 percent allocated through 2016 followed by a dip to 10 percent in 2017 and a strong rebound to over 26 percent in 2018.

Used Jets and Flight Activity

Turning to used jets and flight activity, over the course of the past year the pace of flight activity recovery has weakened somewhat. Ground lost by operators during the 2009 recession still remains to be recaptured. With respect to the used jet market:

Just under 10 percent of today's fleet is up for resale, down from a high of nearly 16 percent in 2009. Current levels are normal in light of the past decade's history; meanwhile, asking prices continue to drift lower.

In 2015, the total number of recent model jets (less than 10 years old) listed for resale has risen moderately to around 640 aircraft. However, in proportion to the decline in overall listings, the share of recent model jets for sale has crept up more noticeably.

Operator respondents increased their used jet acquisition plans by about 4 points, equating to 32 percent of their fleets in the next five years. All regions' used jet purchase plans rose except the Middle East and Africa, which was flat.

17 November 2015

Aviation Week & Space Technology - MRO Edition

When a severe hailstorm hit the Dallas area in 2013, American Airlines took a major hit. In less than 1 hr., 103 of its aircraft, including McDonnell Douglas MD-80s and Boeing 737s, 757s and 767s, sustained damage at the carrier’s huge Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport hub. The storm not only affected metal fuselages and wings but also composite panels and flight controls.

“We took about 40 mechanics and a team of about 10 composite repair specialists to Dallas to inspect the damage,” says Kevin Ferrin, technical supervisor for aircraft maintenance at American’s Tulsa, Oklahoma, MRO complex. “We did temporary repairs to the composite panels where we could, and replaced some flight controls where the damage was too extensive. In some cases, we removed the composite flight controls and composite panels, which were then sent to our composite shop in Tulsa for repair and return to the aircraft.”

Ferrin says some of the temporary repairs were approved by American’s engineering staff, and some by Boeing, for continued use of the airplanes in service until their next C-check. About 75% of the affected aircraft were back in revenue service within 24 hr., although five were grounded for about 10 days due to the extent of the damage or the need to wait for repaired parts.

Composite structure field repairs “present all options including on-site work on the damaged area, change-outs, and in some cases, ferry flights to a maintenance facility,” Ferrin emphasises. In cases of change-outs, American maintains inventories of spare composite structures, primarily at its “Class One” (largest) hub stations at Dallas/Fort Worth, Miami, and Chicago-O’Hare, he says. “American is very fortunate to have a well-trained composite maintenance group, but with deliveries of our new 787s, there will [at some point] be repairs that even we haven’t done,” he says. “This will require us to learn new repair concepts.”

However, because the carrier’s engineering group started preparations for the 787 a year before it went into service at American in 2015, the airline is “well-prepared” to handle in-house much of the potential damage that could occur. “Any extensive damage to the fuselage may still require bringing in Boeing to accomplish the repairs,” Ferrin says.

When it comes to composite repairs in the field, airlines “could be presented with a huge logistical problem,” says Jim Epperson, senior manager, global customer support services for Spirit AeroSystems. The Wichita-based company is a supplier of complete composite nacelles, nacelle panels and composite thrust reversers used on Boeing airliners and more recently the nacelles for the new Gulfstream G650 business jet. As Epperson explains, getting the materials and repair equipment to the aircraft is one of the biggest challenges maintenance technicians face. This is complicated further by the fact that the materials have a limited shelf life—up to about one year for prepreg materials that in many cases require cold storage at temperatures ranging from 0F to -20F. “When the material needs to be used, you have to take it out of the freezer, thaw it, cut the quantity you need, rebag that and transport it to the aircraft—keeping in mind that the material will have a limited life at room temperature,” he says. “If the material has to be shipped to an international destination, it could be delayed at customs, which could lead to spoilage prior to customs clearance.”

Epperson also points out that there are more mechanics trained to repair metal structures than those qualified to do the hot bonding required for composites. “And when you also add in the need to do nondestructive testing as part of the repair process, that takes another skill set,” he says. Spirit AeroSystems addresses these issues by positioning nacelles and nacelle components at strategic global locations, and by dispatching aircraft-on-ground teams. But as Epperson notes, there are times when an interim repair may still be required in order to ferry the airplane to where more permanent, complex repairs can be done. “A good example of an interim repair is a bolted-on sheet metal patch. Although we normally don’t like to do this, because when you bolt metal onto a composite structure, it does additional damage,” he explains. “However, another repair method we could use in preparation for a ferry flight is a wet layup, which uses an epoxy material mix and a dry fiberglass or graphite patch that is layered on. That is allowed to cure for a couple of hours, at room temperature—up to temperatures [as high as] 150F. It’s a quick way to do a patch for a ferry flight that doesn’t involve hot bonding, which takes about 5 hr. with temperatures of 250F.”

Fortunately, the trend is toward repairs in place. Henrik Schmutzler, an innovation engineer at Lufthansa Technik in Germany, reports the company is offering “an increasing number of mobile repair solutions” for composite structures. “Most complex repairs are being developed in a manner [so they can] be conducted onsite in the future,” he says. “For example, infusion as substitution for wet layups offers significant advantages for in-field repairs. Furthermore, we are introducing a mobile scarfing system that will enter service in 2016.”

Ed Montalvo, an aircraft maintenance supervisor at Southwest Airlines in Dallas, says the carrier has a number of options available for field-level composite repairs, as specified in the Boeing Structural Repair Manual (SRM), for its all-737 fleet. “We have been able to perform [most of] the repairs without taking the aircraft out of service or delaying it for a significant period of time,” he says. “If we find that the problem has not been addressed in the SRM, Southwest’s Structures Engineering Group, which is well-versed in composite repair issues, will design a repair that will be sent to Boeing for approval.” However, most composite repairs resulting from damage in the field are “carryovers,” which means the damage is so minor repairs can be carried over to the next scheduled maintenance event. But if the damage is more severe and cannot wait for a scheduled check, the repair has to be done in the field. This, he says, mandates a clean working environment. However, even with a tarp in place, ambient temperatures could preclude an outdoor repair. According to Montalvo, if outside temperatures are less than 50F, a heated area is mandated. “Under cold-air conditions, you have to have a hangar because it becomes difficult for a hot bonding machine to generate the temperatures—200-350F—to carry out the repair.”

Montalvo cites continuing developments at Boeing in the direction of new composite repair schemes that will enable operators to get aircraft back into service faster. “We would like to see more composite repair that can be accomplished during an overnight check—within 8 hr. or less,” he says.

30 November 2015

Aviation Week & Space Technology - MRO Edition

With a new generation of commercial jets, seismic changes in repair technologies are occurring. “The aviation industry is entering a period of disruptive technology for the first time since the transition from analogue to digital airplanes in the 1980s,” says Chris Doan, vice president of consulting firm Oliver Wyman. “New aircraft, built largely of composites and supermetal alloys, will be maintained differently than their predecessors.”

Along with new materials, these airplanes will generate a huge amount of component performance and health monitoring data, going from megabytes to terabytes. “We are entering the era of big data. The result will be a faster implementation of disruptive repair and data-management technology than previously seen,” adds Doan.

For the MRO industry, the implications are inescapable. By 2024, 20,000 new commercial aircraft will have been delivered. Of those, 9,000 will be replacements for currently operating jets, according to Oliver Wyman’s 2015 forecast and survey.

The survey also predicts that by 2020, 15-20% of the projected $83.2 billion MRO aftermarket spend for that year could be affected by new technology. It attributes this trend to the large amount of data generated by aircraft health monitoring and predictive maintenance systems as well as new repair technologies including additive manufacturing.

“The MROs will have to rethink the way they do business or risk losing as much as 20% of their market value. Those who think they will grow by leaving things as they are and doing nothing will be wrong,” Doan cautions.

“From what we are seeing with our partners, new research and development [R&D] is coming in leaps and bounds—mainly with engine shops, and composite airframe MROs,” says Josh Goring, business development director for AJW Technique in Montreal. He advises that as OEMs tighten their grip on new airframe and engine aftermarket support, third-party MROs need to increase their R&D budgets.

“If third-party MROs are going to retain their piece of the aftermarket support pie, more R&D will be needed for out-of-the-box thinking and reverse engineering, especially as the next-generation platforms require much higher proficiencies in avionic and electrical understanding,” he notes.

According to Doan, the MRO industry’s yearly R&D investment is typically about 10% of operating costs. Along with that, the MRO study determined that adopting new repair technologies has been slow. “The MRO industry is traditionally cautious, with innovations happening sporadically, at best. In fact, only about 13% of the MROs surveyed said they are comfortable with change and innovations,” says Doan.

But innovations in repair technologies are indeed taking place. In September, Spirit AeroSystems introduced a radical, out-of-autoclave repair process for composite propulsion system components.

“Generally, the repair techniques and materials used for the out-of-autoclave process apply to all propulsion family products that Spirit manufactures, but we have found that the [part with the] most imminent need for this technology is the thrust reverser inner wall,” says John Welch, the Wichita-based company’s chief scientist, global customer support and services. The repair, he reports, was granted FAA approval as an alternative method of compliance (AMOC) following 18 months of testing and data substantiation.

“The goal was to develop a composite repair technology that will deliver the same capability for mission performance and restorative strength that would be achieved using an autoclave,” says Welch. “Also, the out-of-autoclave process benefits those customers who lack an autoclave, which is a very high- cost piece of equipment.”

The new repair system can be performed in-house by Spirit AeroSystems or made available as a kit to approved MROs, says Welch. The kit can reduce the repair time to as little as two days, compared to 14 days with an autoclave. Welch attributes that time reduction, in part, to the fact that the repair process does not require complete disassembly of the thrust reverser’s inner wall structure—and that Spirit AeroSystems performs all pre-processing of the kit, including cutting, orientation and layup of each material layer.

At StandardAero Component Services, which spends 5-10% of its yearly operating expenses on R&D, the introduction of a relatively new cold spray method for dimensional restoration and corrosion repair of engine components is planned for early 2016. Tim Mathis, director of engineering for the Cincinnati-based component repair facility—specialising in GE, Pratt & Whitney, V2500 and Rolls-Royce engines—describes cold spray as a “super-high-pressure, low-temperature alternative” to thermal spray methods.

“Cold spray is essentially a solid-state coating process using a high-speed gas jet to accelerate powder particles at a supersonic speed on a substrate. The metal particles plastically deform and consolidate upon impact to fill in defects or build up discrepant dimensional features,” Mathis explains. “Based on testing, material properties are better using cold spray versus thermal spray.”

Mathis points out that cold-spray technology underwent an extensive evaluation process at StandardAero. The company determined it was particularly effective when applied to aluminium structures such as fan casings. However, no specific standard practice for cold spray application has been developed yet by any of the prime engine OEMs. To address this, StandardAero will deploy “a trial/testing matrix” to perform an analysis on all applicable materials it estimates it will need to use and also work with the OEMs for the application of cold-spray technology to meet the required repair characteristics.

Also pushing the boundaries of engine component repair, Evendale, Ohio-based GE Aviation is developing a cold metal transfer process for application to restore seals on rotating engine parts. “This material-additive technology is a unique, low-heat process that allows us to build up worn areas on many types of components,” says Scott Fentress, GE Aviation’s general manager- component repair. “Metal is applied quickly in very small droplets, lowering the amount of heat transferred to the part. After the metal transfer, modest final machining is needed to restore surface finish and final dimensions.” Lower heat means less thermal stress and distortion are introduced during the repair, says Fentress. This increases repair yield, since there is less chance of cracking than when using hot metal transfer methods, he adds.

Airlines operating from deserts or in salt air environments are at higher risk of engine component erosion—especially within the high-pressure compressor airfoils. To combat that, MTU Maintenance recently introduced MTUPlus ERCoateco, an improved erosion and corrosion-resistant nanotechnology coating that provides resistance to particle as well as fluid erosion. “We developed ERCoateco drawing from many years of PVD [physical vapour deposition] technology know-how and field experience,” says Frank Seidel, senior manager-repair engineering for MTU Maintenance in Germany. “Cost savings will be achieved through a scrap rate reduction of up to 30%, a decreased specific fuel consumption of up to 0.5%, reduced CO2 emissions and increased on-wing times,” he adds.

MTU Maintenance also has developed advanced plasma-sprayed coatings for combustors, tailored particularly to the needs of desert operators, he says. This involves the application of an additional chemically optimised top coating that reacts with molten sand and crystallises the CMAS (calcium-magnesium-aluminium-silicates) on top of the base coating system. “In a variety of isothermal and thermal cycle tests, our MTU coating showed a significant increase in CMAS resistance and lifetime durability compared to the current standard YSZ [Yttria- stabilised zirconia] coatings,” he says.

MTU spends about 10% of its annual €160 million R&D expenses on repair development, including machining, surface treatments, dimensional restorations and testing applications. “In addition, we are developing data management tools which allow us to evaluate and use the findings of our repair activities for the future. Also, we are aiming at a high yield rate and a reduction of the scrapping process,” says Seidel.

At Pratt & Whitney, dimensional restoration has been driving new welding technologies. One of these is a replacement for tungsten inert gas (TIG) welding. “It reduces the time normally involved with the TIG welding process by as much as 75% and is applicable to a wide range of nonstructural parts on which we previously did TIG welding,” says William Brindley, manager for manufacturing and aftermarket technology at the engine OEM’s East Hartford, Connecticut, headquarters.

Brindley explains that the new welding method was introduced three years ago to address degradation due to wear. “We have used this new dimensional welding method to restore the part’s surface to the point where it meets the original design specs, and we are continuing to expand its use on a wider range of materials.”

Brindley also cites the company’s solid-state friction welding as a ground-breaking method for replacing component structural features, enabling repairs that could not be done prior to its introduction four years ago. “Friction welding does not melt material to achieve a weld,” he says. “It allows us to maintain much of the critical microstructure of the original base metal and therefore maintain much of the original material’s mechanical properties. For many alloys this is not achievable with standard fusion welding methods, like TIG.”

StandardAero Component Services’ Tim Mathis reports that his company is shifting its focus toward composite parts repair technology. He says the ratio of metal to composite engine parts repaired by the company is currently 80/20. But that could reach a 50/50 split within a decade. “The challenge is, how do we get ready to repair the new composite engine parts that we don’t even know about yet?” says Mathis. “That means addressing issues involving equipment and technology, as well as those for composite parts inspections, layup and the more sophisticated machining methods that will be required.”

Preparations are in progress on ceramic matrix composites (CMC), which, Mathis points out, are not used in legacy engines, and thus have no available repairs. He predicts that CMC applications will be with combustor liners, fan cases and hot-section components, including blades, vanes, shrouds, nozzles and exhaust. But as repair technology increases in complexity, intellectual property access will become a greater issue. “Intellectual property has always been a decisive factor for our repair development,” says MTU Maintenance’s Seidel. “In fact, we believe this situation has gotten more challenging over the past few years due to the strong OEM dominance of the aftermarket. Yet there is still room for new ideas and solutions.”

13 November 2015

TAP Portugal has signed a firm order with Airbus for 53 Widebody and single aisle aircraft including 14 A330-900neo, and 39 A320neo Family aircraft (15 A320neos and 24 A321neos). The aircraft will join TAP Portugal’s fleet as part of its fleet renewal announced by the airline’s new majority owner Atlantic Gateway. As part of the agreement, TAP Portugal is replacing its previous order of 12 A350-900s with the A330-900neo.

17 November 2015

easyJet has signed a firm order for a further 36 A320 Family aircraft taking its cumulative order for the type to 451. The agreement for six A320ceo and 30 A320neo makes easyJet one of the world’s biggest airline customers for the 

24 November 2015

Boeing and BOC Aviation announced an order for 22 737 airplanes, building on the leasing company's existing order book to fulfil customer demand. The order comprises 11 Next-Generation 737-800s and 11 737 MAX 8 airplanes.