#$usl

Last week’s review of the macro market indicators saw the week played out with Gold ($GLD) pulling back and then rebounding while Crude Oil ($USO)consolidated early but then moved to new highs. The US Dollar ($DXY) pulled back from a higher high while Treasuries ($TLT) fell back later in the week to end at 8 month lows. The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) was closed for the Lunar New Year holidays while Emerging Markets ($EEM) bounced off support but fizzled out the back half of the week.

Volatility ($VXX) fell early but bounced at 20, ending the week lower but slightly elevated. This put pressure on equities midweek and they finished what was a promising week with a 2 day move lower. This resulted in the $SPY, $IWM and $QQQ off of last week’s lows but still in the caution zone.

The week played out with Gold pushing to the upside to resistance while Crude Oil continued higher early before meeting resistance as well and falling back. The US Dollar found support and bounced while Treasuries fell back to 9 month lows. The Shanghai Composite found support and rebounded from last week’s low while Emerging Markets moved back up to falling trend resistance.

Volatility fell back to 1 month lows before a harsh reversal Thursday brought it back to near unchanged on the week. This put late week pressure on equities and they gave up early week gains. The SPY and IWM caught a bid early Friday but succumbed to war fears while the QQQ moved lower all day. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week holding at a higher low after pulling back from a bounce. This was also over the 200 day SMA. It continued to hold early and then jumped higher to the top of the prior bounce Wednesday. Thursday saw it pullback and Friday move lower again, confirming a short term double top and resting under the 200 day SMA again. The daily chart shows the RSI is pulling back after failing to move into the bullish zone with the MACD curling to cross back down and negative.

The weekly chart shows what could be a lower high forming over the 50 week SMA. The RSI on this timeframe is falling towards the lower edge of the bullish zone with the MACD dropping but still positive. There is support at 437.50 and 435.50 then 430.50 and 428.50 before 425.50. Resistance higher sits at 441 and 444 then 447 and 450 before 454 and 457. Pullback.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

Heading into February options expiration week, equity markets showed weakness with an ugly finish Thursday and Friday. Elsewhere look for Gold to continue to rise in consolidation while Crude Oil trends higher. The US Dollar Index continues to drift to the upside while US Treasuries pullback. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue to consolidate while Emerging Markets continue to trend lower.

The Volatility Index looks to remain elevated and biased higher putting a roadblock in the path of equity markets chances of moving to the upside. Their charts look weak, especially on the shorter timeframe, with the QQQ leading the SPY to the downside, but the IWM holding. On the longer timeframe the IWM is also outperforming with the QQQ looking worse than the SPY. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

Last week’s review of the macro market indicators saw with January options expiration in the books, equity markets were off to an ugly start for 2022. Elsewhere looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue higher in consolidation while Crude Oil ($USL) continued the uptrend. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) continued to drift to the upside in consolidation while US Treasuries ($TLT) consolidated. The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to consolidate as well while Emerging Markets ($EEM) continued the downtrend.

The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to remain elevated, possibly moving higher, making the path easier for equity markets to the downside. Their charts looked weak and trending lower on the shorter timeframe. On the longer timeframe both the $QQQ and $SPY were shifting into troubled looks. The $IWM was now in a downtrend.

The week played out with Gold stalling at a lower high and dropped back while Crude Oil dropped monday but then rose to new highs by the end of the week. The US Dollar quickened the pace to the upside reaching 18 month highs while Treasuries settled into a rane at the lows. The Shanghai Composite broke the top of the consolidation range to the downside while Emerging Markets continued lower to the bottom of a falling channel.

Volatility rose slightly and showed signs of topping. The equity markets saw early weakness rebound Monday and then wide chop the rest of the week. The IWM was the exception making a lower low. This resulted in the SPY touching back at the October low and the QQQ undercutting that October level before ending the week slightly higher. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week below the 200 day SMA for the first time since June 2020. It gapped down Monday and continued to drop intraday reaching over a 12% drop from the top to touch the October low before reversing and closing the gap. It continued to bounce around in a wide range under the 200 day SMA for the rest of the week.

It ended Friday less than half a point under the 200 day SMA and up on the week. The daily chart shows the bear flag or consolidation building. The RSI is racing higher out of oversold territory while the MACD is kinking higher but negative at an 18 month low. This is a good spot for a reversal, but the evidence is far from overwhelming that it will be.

The weekly chart shows a Hammer candle, a possible reversal signal if confirmed next week. This is at the 50 week SMA and the lower of the Bollinger Bands®. The RSI on this timeframe is turning back higher and has remained in the bullish zone. The MACD is dropping but positive. There is support lower at 441 and 437.50 then 435.50 and 430.50 before 428.50 and 425.50. Resistance higher comes at 444 and 447 then 450 and 454 before 457. Consolidation in the Pullback.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

With just one trading day left in January traders are getting excited to turn the page on an ugly month for equities. Elsewhere look for Gold to continue in consolidation while Crude Oil continues to move higher. The US Dollar Index continues in an uptrend as well while US Treasuries consolidate. The Shanghai Composite is moving lower in consolidation while Emerging Markets remain in a downtrend.

The Volatility Index is elevated but moving lower easing the pressure on equity markets. Their charts are mixed with the SPY and QQQ showing consolidation in the pullback in the short timeframe and potential reversal candles on the longer timeframe. The IWM is in a downtrend on the shorter frame with indecision on the longer timeframe. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

Last week’s review of the macro market indicators saw heading into a short week and January options expiration, that equity markets showed early promise but failed to hold the early week gains. Elsewhere looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue its rise in consolidation while Crude Oil ($USL) drove higher. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) continued a pullback in the uptrend while US Treasuries ($TLT) pulled back in a consolidation range.

The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to pullback in consolidation while Emerging Markets ($EEM) bounced in the downtrend. The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to remain in the normal range taking the pressure off equity markets. Their charts continued to show strength in the longer timeframe but with short term weakness. The $IWM and $QQQ looked the weakest on the short timeframe with the $SPY faring slightly better.

The week played out with Gold pushing to the upside while Crude Oil broke to a new 7 year high before stalling. The US Dollar found support in its pullback and bounced while Treasuries made a new low early before reversing and ending higher. The Shanghai Composite continued the move lower in consolidation while Emerging Markets remained in a downward trending channel. 

Volatility jumped Tuesday and continued higher all week. This put pressure on equities and they moved lower early. Thursday saw an early day bounce turn to an ugly sell off in the afternoon and continued selling Friday. This resulted in the QQQ ending more than 10% off the highs, in correction territory, the SPY over 8% from the top and the IWM falling under 200. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week in consolidation. It started lower Tuesday and accelerated as the week progressed. By Friday it had sliced through the 200 day SMA for the first time since April 2020. It closed just pennies off the low of the week and with the highest volume since June 2020. It is now nearly 9% from the all-time high. The daily chart shows the RSI dipping into oversold territory with the MACD negative and dropping at the lowest level since April 2020.

The weekly chart shows price printing a bearish Marubozu candle, boding for more downside. The 50 week SMA sits just below at the lower edge of the Bollinger Bands®. The RSI is dropping through the midline with the MACD crossed down but positive. There is support lower at 437.50 and 435.50 then 430.50 and 428.50 before 425.50. Resistance above sits at 441 and 444 then 447 and 450 before 454 and 457. Pullback.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

With January options expiration in the books, equity markets are off to an ugly start for 2022. Elsewhere look for Gold to continue higher in consolidation while Crude Oil continues the uptrend. The US Dollar Index continues to drift to the upside in consolidation while US Treasuries consolidate. The Shanghai Composite looks to consolidate as well while Emerging Markets continue the downtrend.

The Volatility Index looks to remain elevated, possibly moving higher, making the path easier for equity markets to the downside. Their charts look weak and trending lower on the shorter timeframe. On the longer timeframe both the QQQ and SPY are shifting into troubled looks. The IWM is now in a downtrend. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

Last week’s review of the macro market indicators saw with the first week of 2022 in the books, equity markets showed some short term weakness. Elsewhere looked for Gold ($GLD) to consolidate while Crude Oil ($USL) continued to move higher. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) continued to pause in consolidation in the uptrend while US Treasuries ($TLT) continued a short term downtrend. The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to consolidate while Emerging Markets ($EEM) continued the move lower.

The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to remain low and in the normal range making the path easier for equity markets to the upside. Their charts continued to show strength on the longer timeframe but with short term weakness. The $SPY looked the strongest of the three but in a pullback short term. The $QQQ had joined the $IWM in building a consolidation zone, sitting at the bottom of it, while the IWM itself remained in the 11 month range.

The week played out with Gold pushing to the upside and stalling at the recent highs while Crude Oil continued the uptrend. The US Dollar dropped back to a 2 month low before finding support and rising Friday while Treasuries found support and reversed higher until a fall back Friday. The Shanghai Composite dropped back down through its 200 day SMA while Emerging Markets ended the bounce and resumed the move lower in the downtrend.

Volatility started the week moving lower but found support and reversed to end slightly higher. This made for a choppy week for equities, starting lower Monday and then recovering and running to tops Wednesday before reversing back lower the rest of the week. This resulted in the SPY and IWM slightly lower on the week with the QQQ basically unchanged. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week pulling back from a plateau at the all-time high. It continued lower early Monday before an intraday reversal that retraced most of the drop. It continued to move higher through Wednesday, topping as it moved over the 20 day SMA. It took a tumble Thursday and gapped down Friday only to recover by days end. This left the SPY down slightly on the week. The daily chart shows the RSI holding near the midline in the bullish range with the MACD dropping but positive. The Bollinger Bands® are flat.

The weekly chart shows the doji star candle touching the 20 week SMA, where it has found support and continued higher ever since late 2020. The RSI on this timeframe is holding in the bullish zone, drifting lower, with the MACD also drifting lower but positive. The Bollinger Bands are drifting to the upside. There is resistance at 466 and 470 then 471 and 473 before 476 and 478.50. Support lower comes at 463.50 and 460 then 457 and 454 before 450. Consolidation in the Uptrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

Heading into a short week and January options expiration, equity markets showed early promise but failed to hold the early week gains. Elsewhere look for Gold to continue its rise in consolidation while Crude Oil drives higher. The US Dollar Index continues a pullback in the uptrend while US Treasuries pullback in a consolidation range. The Shanghai Composite looks to pullback in consolidation while Emerging Markets bounce in the downtrend.

The Volatility Index looks to remain in the normal range taking the pressure off equity markets. Their charts continue to show strength in the longer timeframe but with short term weakness. The IWM and QQQ look the weakest on the short timeframe with the SPY faring slightly better. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

Last week’s review of the macro market indicators saw as the books closed on 2021, equity markets posted a good year for tech and large caps while small caps marked time the entire year. Elsewhere looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue its rise in consolidation while Crude Oil ($USL) continued a short term move higher. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) looked to consolidate in the uptrend while US Treasuries ($TLT) churned in a range sideways. The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to continue broad consolidation while Emerging Markets ($EEM) continued the downtrend.

The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to remain in the normal range making the path easier for equity markets to the upside. The charts of the large cap $SPY and tech heavy $QQQ looked strong on the longer timeframe, with the SPY leading the way. On the shorter timeframe both the QQQ and SPY remained near all-time highs but with stalling momentum, suggesting possible short term erosion. The $IWM remained content to hold in the consolidation range that held it almost all of 2021.

The week played out with Gold meeting resistance and dropping back below 1800 while Crude Oil continued the move higher. The US Dollar consolidated in a slightly broader range while Treasuries turned lower. The Shanghai Composite moved lower in consolidation while Emerging Markets drifted slightly lower.

Volatility made lower lows early and then moved back up mid week, but still in the normal range. This put initial pressure on equities mid week and they moved lower. The SPY ran flat after Wednesday with a slight downward drift, while the QQQ and IWM bounced but then gave up the gains. This resulted in the SPY off about 3% and the QQQ back near the December lows. The IWM is back near the bottom of a 12 month range. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week in a bull flag after making a new all-time high 3 days earlier. It moved higher Monday, closing at a new all-time high. Tuesday started higher as well but could not hold up. It followed with a big fall Wednesday and continued to drift lower through Friday. This left the SPY off nearly 3% from the high and at the 50 day SMA. The daily chart shows the RSI pulling back below the midline with the MACD crossed down but positive. The Bollinger Bands® flat on this timeframe.

The weekly chart shows the red candle still well above the 20 week SMA. The RSI on this timeframe is holding in the bullish zone with the MACD flat and positive. There is resistance at 470 and 471 then 473 and 476 before 478.50. Support lower comes at 466 and 463 then 460 and 457 before 454 and 450. Pullback in Uptrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

With the first week of 2022 in the books, equity markets showed some short term weakness. Elsewhere look for Gold to consolidate while Crude Oil continues to move higher. The US Dollar Index continues to pause in consolidation in the uptrend while US Treasuries continue a short term downtrend. The Shanghai Composite looks to consolidate while Emerging Markets continue the move lower.

The Volatility Index looks to remain low and in the normal range making the path easier for equity markets to the upside. Their charts continue to show strength on the longer timeframe but with short term weakness. The SPY looks the strongest of the three but in a pullback short term. The QQQ has now joined the IWM in building a consolidation zone, sitting at the bottom of it, while the IWM itself remains in the 11 month range. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

Last week’s review of the macro market indicators saw with only 1 week left in 2021, equity markets showed strength with a rebound from an ugly start. Elsewhere looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue its consolidation while Crude Oil ($USL) drifted towards the top of a consolidation range. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) continued to consolidate in the uptrend while US Treasuries ($TLT) marked time sideways. The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to continue in consolidation as well while Emerging Markets ($EEM) continued lower.

The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to remain at normal levels making the path easier for equity markets to the upside. Their charts looked strong, especially on the shorter timeframe. On the longer timeframe both the $QQQ and $SPY continued to show strength in consolidation, while the $IWM floundered in the middle of the year long consolidation range.

The week played out with Gold pushing to the upside in the consolidation range while Crude Oil made a move to the upside. The US Dollar drifted to the downside while Treasuries also moved lower. The Shanghai Composite held in a tight range while Emerging Markets rose in their downtrend.

Volatility drifted lower after a gap up open Monday, ending the week little changed. Equities responded by starting the week with a move higher Monday. The SPY held the rest of the week while the QQQ and IWM bounced around ending little changed. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week rising after a pullback and pennies from the all-time high. It continued higher Monday making a new all-time high and then settled into a tight range the rest of the week. It made another high Wednesday, the 70th of the year, the second most times ever in a year.

With the higher week it needs only to close above 470.60 on Tuesday next week to register a Santa Claus Rally and bode well for 2022. The daily chart shows the bull flag building at the highs. The Bollinger Bands® are opening higher with the RSI flat in the bullish zone and the MACD rising and positive.

The weekly chart shows the break of the 8 week resistance. The RSI on this timeframe is rising in the bullish zone with the MACD crossing up and positive. There is no resistance above 476 and 478.50. Support lower comes at 473 then 471 and 470 before 466 and 463.50 then 460. Uptrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

As the books close on 2021, equity markets posted a good year for tech and large caps while small caps marked time the entire year. Elsewhere look for Gold to continue its rise in consolidation while Crude Oil continues a short term move higher. The US Dollar Index looks to consolidate in the uptrend while US Treasuries churn in a range sideways. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue broad consolidation while Emerging Markets continue the downtrend.

The Volatility Index looks to remain in the normal range making the path easier for equity markets to the upside. The charts of the large cap SPY and tech heavy QQQ look strong on the longer timeframe, with the SPY leading the way. On the shorter timeframe both the QQQ and SPY remain near all-time highs but with stalling momentum, suggesting possible short term erosion. The IWM remains content to hold in the consolidation range that has held it almost all of 2021. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

Last week’s review of the macro market indicators saw with the December Quadruple Witching in the books, equity markets showed some weakness. Elsewhere looked for Gold to continue its consolidation while Crude Oil consolidated as well. The US Dollar Index looked to pause in the uptrend while US Treasuries consolidated. The Shanghai Composite looked to continue in consolidation as well while Emerging Markets continued to move lower.

The Volatility Index looked to remain in the normal range easing the pressure on equity markets. Their charts looked vulnerable on the shorter timeframe. On the longer timeframe both the QQQ and SPY looked stronger while all three, including the IWM, remained in consolidation.

The week played out with Gold remaining in a tight range in consolidation while Crude Oil pushed up through resistance to end the week. The US Dollar also held in a tight range while Treasuries fell back from resistance at the end of their week. The Shanghai Composite found support and started higher in consolidation while Emerging Markets found support and rose through the week.

Volatility spiked higher at the open Monday but then fell back all week to end at 1 month lows. This put initial pressure on equities and they responded with a move lower at the open Monday. All found support and reversed moving to finish the week higher. This resulted in the SPY and QQQ ending back near all-time highs with the IWM in the middle of long term consolidation. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week pulling back from a failed break out. It gapped down Monday and continued lower to touch the 100 day SMA for the first time since early October where it found support and reversed. It closed with a doji Hammer candle on the daily chart and confirmed it as a reversal with a move higher Tuesday. It continued higher the rest of the week to end within pennies of the all-time high close. The RSI is rising from the midline in the bullish zone with the MACD about to cross up and positive. The Bollinger Bands® are flat but there is still room above to the top of them.

The weekly chart shows a building 2 month consolidation under resistance, with a strong weekly candle. The Bollinger Bands on this timeframe are pointing higher. The RSI is holding in the bullish zone with the MACD drifting lower but positive. There is no resistance above 471. Support lower comes at 470 and 466 then 463.50 and 460 before 474 and 454 then 450. Consolidation in Uptrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

With only 1 week left in 2021, equity markets showed strength with a rebound from an ugly start. Elsewhere look for Gold to continue its consolidation while Crude Oil drifts towards the top of a consolidation range. The US Dollar Index continues to consolidate in the uptrend while US Treasuries mark time sideways. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue in consolidation as well while Emerging Markets continue lower.

The Volatility Index looks to remain at normal levels making the path easier for equity markets to the upside. Their charts look strong, especially on the shorter timeframe. On the longer timeframe both the QQQ and SPY continue to show strength in consolidation, while the IWM flounders in the middle of the yearlong consolidation range. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

Last week’s review of the macro market indicators saw heading into December options expiration week, equity markets showed resilience with a rebound from an ugly prior 2 weeks. Elsewhere looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue in consolidation while Crude Oil ($USL) might resume the uptrend. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) continued to trend higher while US Treasuries ($TLT) looked to be back in consolidation. The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) remained in consolidation while Emerging Markets ($EEM) continued to trend lower.

The Volatility Index ($VXX) had moved back into the normal range making the path easier for equity markets to the upside. Their charts looked strong, especially the large caps and tech stocks. On the shorter timeframe the $SPY was leading with a new all-time high, then the $QQQ just off the pace. On the longer timeframe both the SPY and QQQ looked very strong. The $IWM was now back in consolidation and floundering again.

The week played out with Gold pushing to bottom of the consolidation range early before a thrust higher to end the week while Crude Oil continued to consolidated at recent highs. The US Dollar paused in its trend higher while Treasuries held firm under resistance. The Shanghai Composite spiked to the top of the consolidation range while Emerging Markets dropped to the bottom of the falling channel.

Volatility held in a narrow range near the lows of the prior week. This left equities to be pushed around by position squaring around options expiration and the FOMC meeting and press conference. They fluctuated wildly in both directions before ending mostly lower on the week. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week at an all-time high close. It fell back Monday and gapped down Tuesday, closing below the 20 day SMA. Wednesday saw a recovery to within pennies of the prior high only to fall back Thursday and Friday, ending the week at the 50 day SMA. This is also at the 200% extension of the retracement of the pandemic drop.

The daily chart shows the Bollinger Bands® are running sideways now. There is a negative momentum divergence, although the indicators are in the bullish range. The RSI is falling back from a lower high with the MACD also crossing down from a lower high.

The weekly chart shows a negative momentum divergence as well. The RSI is falling back in the bullish zone with the MACD crossed down but positive. The price remains above the 20 week SMA. There is resistance above at 460 then 463.60 and 466 then 470 and 471. Support below comes at 457 then 454 and 450 before 447 and 444 then 441. Consolidation in Uptrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

With the December Quadruple Witching in the books, equity markets showed some weakness. Elsewhere look for Gold to continue its consolidation while Crude Oil consolidates as well. The US Dollar Index looks to pause in the uptrend while US Treasuries consolidate. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue in consolidation as well while Emerging Markets continue to move lower.

The Volatility Index looks to remain in the normal range easing the pressure on equity markets. Their charts look vulnerable on the shorter timeframe. On the longer timeframe both the QQQ and SPY look stronger while all three, including the IWM, remain in consolidation. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.