#$vix

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw, with just 2 trading days left in the month of June, equity markets were settling into a consolidation zone for the large caps as money rotated into the flying small caps. Elsewhere, looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue a short term downtrend while Crude Oil ($USO) joined with its own short term downtrend. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) looked to continue higher testing a break of the 15 month range and morphing into an uptrend while US Treasuries ($TLT) continued to hold over support in consolidation. The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to continue the consolidation in a slow drifting range higher while Emerging Markets ($EEM) paused after a long run of new highs in their uptrend.

The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to continue in the normal zone keeping at least a slight tailwind behind equities. The charts of the $SPY, the $QQQ and the $IWM continued to look strong on the longer timeframe with the IWM leading and the SPY and QQQ consolidating. On the shorter timeframe the SPY and the QQQ still had some work left in the short term bounce to prove the pullback was over. Making a new all-time high with higher momentum readings would solidify that. The IWM, however, was looking strong, after a new all-time high both Thursday and Friday.

The week played out with Gold finding support and showing a bounce Thursday while Crude Oil continued to move lower. The US Dollar pulled back from its recent high while Treasuries fell back near to bottom of the consolidation range. The Shanghai Composite managed a small bounce off of its long term moving average while Emerging Markets continued to consolidate at a higher low.

The Volatility Index fell back all week ending near the lows of the year. This relieved pressure on equities and they rose early in the week with the SPY continuing through Wednesday but the IWM and QQQ stalling and seeing late week profit taking. The SPY joined them Thursday, short of the June high. The QQQ is narrowing a consolidation range while the IWM holds near record highs. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

The SPY came into the week about 3.5% off its high and consolidating in a symmetrical triangle. It set the bottom rail of the triangle Monday and then rose Tuesday and Wednesday. It briefly touched the top Thursday before reversing lower to close just above the 20 day SMA.The RSI is level at the midline in the bullish zone and the MACD falling and about to turn negative after failing to cross up. Downside risk remains with the momentum divergence drawing another lower high, for now.

The weekly chart shows a narrow inside candle closing at the 300% extension of the retracement of the 2022 drop. The RSI is drifting lower in the bullish zone with the MACD rolling over and positive. There is support lower at 742 and 740 then 733 and 728 before 724 and 718. There is resistance above at 748.50 and 751.50 then 755.50 and 760. Uptrend.

With the month of June and its non-farm payroll report in the rearview mirror, the high correlation of the equity market indexes may be starting to disconnect. Elsewhere, look for Gold to continue a short term downtrend along with Crude Oil extending its downtrend. The US Dollar Index looks to continue flirt with a break of the 15 month range and morphing into an uptrend while US Treasuries continue to hold over support in consolidation. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue the consolidation in a slow drifting range higher while Emerging Markets pause and digest after a long run of new highs in their uptrend.

The Volatility Index looks to continue in the normal zone keeping at least a slight tailwind behind equities. Despite this the broad indexes have gone nowhere on the week. The charts of the SPY, the QQQ and the IWM continue to look strong on the longer timeframe with the IWM leading and the SPY and QQQ consolidating. On the shorter timeframe the SPY and the QQQ still have some work left in the short term bounce to prove the pullback is over. Making a new all-time high, or at least a move over the June high, with higher momentum readings would solidify that. The IWM, however, is looking strong, after making a new all-time high Tuesday. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

Market turmoil from the Russia-Ukraine war, rising oil prices and inflation fears generated DJIA’s 5thDown Friday/Down Monday off 2022. Clusters and numerous occurrences of DF/DM are not a great sign for the market as we discuss on page 78 of the 2022 Stock Trader’s Almanac. Along with the December Low Indicator triggering on February 22 this adds to the increasing concern about the direction of the market.

On the positive side, investors and traders can find some solace in the VIX (CBOE Volatility Index), which closed at 36.45 today – it’s highest level since January 2021, but well below the extreme fear levels of 50+ and well below the high of 66.04 it reached during the early days of the pandemic in March 2020. Also comforting is the fact that the market has not fallen below the intraday lows of February 24 when Russia launched the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw, heading into the start of earnings season, equity markets seemed to have settled into a consolidation at their all-time highs. Elsewhere, looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue the short term downtrend along with Crude Oil ($USO) after its Dead Cat Bounce. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) looked to continue flirt with a break of the 15 month range and a transition into an uptrend while US Treasuries ($TLT) threatened to break down through support in consolidation. The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to continue the consolidation in a slow drifting range while Emerging Markets ($EEM) consolidated in their uptrend.

The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to continue in the normal zone keeping at least a slight tailwind behind equities. The charts of the $SPY, the $QQQ looked ready to start a drift to the upside and possibly overtake the $IWM as leaders again. They all continued to look strong on the longer timeframe consolidating at the highs. On the shorter timeframe the SPY made a higher high, a first step, and the QQQ still had some work left in the short term bounce to prove the pullback was over. The IWM, however, started to feel the pinch of the negative momentum divergence in its consolidation.

The week played out with Gold continuing lower to support while Crude Oil revived the cat and rose to a 1 month high. The US Dollar once again failed to break to new highs and fell to support while Treasuries continued to hold just over the May lows. The Shanghai Composite fell to an 11 month low while Emerging Markets closed at a 2½ month low.

Volatility held in the normal range until a spike up Friday that sold back intraday, remaining in the normal zone. As a result equities stagnated early in the week with the QQQ leading lower Thursday and SPY following Friday. This resulted in the QQQ closing at a 5 week low while the SPY and IWM held in their consolidation ranges. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

The SPY came into the week cracking the symmetrical triangle to the upside and at a higher high. It held there in a tight range through Thursday and gapped down at the open Friday to fall back into the triangle and under both the 20 and 50 day SMA’s. The RSI is holding at the midline in the bullish zone and the MACD rolling over and positive.

The weekly chart shows another narrow candle closing above the 300% extension of the retracement of the 2022 drop. The RSI is holding in the bullish zone with the MACD avoiding a roll over and positive. There is support lower at 742 and 740 then 733 and 728 before 724 and 718. There is resistance above at 748.50 and 751.50 then 755.50 and 760. Uptrend.

With July options expiry in the rearview mirror and heading deep into earnings season, equity markets seem to be a bit unsettled as the high correlation between the indexes slightly unraveled. Elsewhere, look for Gold to continue the downtrend but with Crude Oil reversing to the upside. The US Dollar Index looks to continue to hold at the top of the 15 month range while US Treasuries continue to threaten to break down through support in consolidation. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue the confirmation of a reversal to a downtrend while Emerging Markets hang on by a thread in their uptrend.

The Volatility Index looks to continue in the normal zone after a threat of a move higher keeping at least a slight tailwind behind equities. They could use that as the charts of the SPY, the QQQ and the IWM are showing cracks on the shorter timeframe. The QQQ is the worst followed by the IWM with the SPY holding the strongest. They all continue to look strong on the longer timeframe consolidating at the highs. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw, with the month of June and its non-farm payroll report in the rearview mirror, the high correlation of the equity market indexes was starting to disconnect. Elsewhere, looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue a short term downtrend along with Crude Oil ($USO) extending its downtrend. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) looked to continue flirt with a break of the 15 month range and morphing into an uptrend while US Treasuries ($TLT) continued to hold over support in consolidation. The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to continue the consolidation in a slow drifting range higher while Emerging Markets ($EEM) paused and digested after a long run of new highs in their uptrend.

The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to continue in the normal zone keeping at least a slight tailwind behind equities. Despite this the broad indexes had gone nowhere on the week. The charts of the $SPY, the $QQQ and the $IWM continued to look strong on the longer timeframe with the IWM leading and the SPY and QQQ consolidating. On the shorter timeframe the SPY and the QQQ still had some work left in the short term bounce to prove the pullback was over. Making a new all-time high, or at least a move over the June high, with higher momentum readings would solidify that. The IWM, however, was looking strong, after making a new all-time high Tuesday.

The week played out with Gold consolidating under the short term moving average while Crude Oil met resistance at the cross of its short term and long term moving averages in a bounce and fell back. The US Dollar held in a tight range around its short term moving average while Treasuries fell through support and consolidated at 6 week lows. The Shanghai Composite bounced after a fall through support to end at its long term moving average while Emerging Markets consolidated over support.

The Volatility Index ticked down early in the week but spiked briefly intraday Wednesday before resuming the move lower to end the week at the June low. This pinned equities early in the week but hey rose to new highs Thursday and Friday. This resulted in the SPY, the QQQ and the IWM also improving early but ending the week surviving a midweek hiccup lower. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

The SPY came into the week in a symmetrical triangle just above the 20 day SMA. It rose to the upper rail Monday and got knocked back through Wednesday, but only to the 20 day SMA. Thursday it moved higher cracking the triangle and Friday continued to close at a higher high. The RSI is rising off the midline in the bullish zone and the MACD rising and positive.

The weekly chart shows another narrow candle closing above the 300% extension of the retracement of the 2022 drop. The RSI is holding in the bullish zone with the MACD avoiding a roll over and positive. There is support lower at 751.50 and 748.50 followed by 742 and 740 then 733 and 728. There is resistance above at 755.50 and 760. Uptrend.

Heading into the start of earnings season, equity markets seem to have settled into a consolidation at their all-time highs. Elsewhere, look for Gold to continue the short term downtrend along with Crude Oil after its Dead Cat Bounce. The US Dollar Index looks to continue flirt with a break of the 15 month range and transition into an uptrend while US Treasuries threaten to break down through support in consolidation. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue the consolidation in a slow drifting range while Emerging Markets consolidate in their uptrend.

The Volatility Index looks to continue in the normal zone keeping at least a slight tailwind behind equities. The charts of the SPY, the QQQ look ready to start a drift to the upside and possibly overtake the IWM as leaders again. They all continue to look strong on the longer timeframe consolidating at the highs. On the shorter timeframe the SPY made a higher high, a first step, and the QQQ still has some work left in the short term bounce to prove the pullback is over. Making a new all-time high, or at least a move over the June high, with higher momentum readings would solidify that. The IWM, however, possibly starting to feel the pinch of the negative momentum divergence in its consolidation. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw, with the month of May in the books and heading into a non-farm payroll week, equities continued to show strength, printing more new all-time highs. Elsewhere, looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue walking the fence between a downtrend and digestion in the uptrend while Crude Oil ($USO) bounced around in tightening consolidation around $100/bbl but near a change of character to a downtrend. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) looked to continue to drift higher in broad consolidation while US Treasuries ($TLT) continued to test support in consolidation after avoiding a shift in character.

The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to continue digestion in the short term uptrend while Emerging Markets ($EEM) made new highs in their uptrend. The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to continue lower in the normal zone, giving a tailwind to equities. The charts of the $SPY, the $QQQ and the $IWM continued to look extremely strong on the longer timeframe with a 9th positive week for the SPY. On the shorter timeframe the SPY, the QQQ and the IWM also looked very strong, with all printing all-time highs to start the week and then again Thursday. The SPY and QQQ ended with a 3rd record while the IWM was just short of joining them.

The week played out with Gold falling back to retest the March lows while Crude Oil rebounded but stopped at another lower high and fell back. The US Dollar drifted up until a thrust Friday saw it finish at a 2 month high while Treasuries held in a tight range at support. The Shanghai Composite continued lower negating the short term uptrend and finishing at a nearly 2 month low while Emerging Markets started the week with back-to-back all-time highs before a sharp sell off.

The Volatility Index held in a tight range in the normal zone near the lows of the year. This initially gave equities a boost early in the week and they printed back-to-back all time highs to start the week. The rest of the week saw a bigger range and choppiness with the resultant move to the downside. This resulted in the SPY the QQQ and the IWM falling back to and through their short term moving averages. This was the first time since early April for the SPY and QQQ. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week at another all-time high. And the new week started with 2 more all-time highs Monday and Tuesday before a pause. Thursday saw a drop at the open recover all day and then it ended the week Friday printing a Marubozu Kicker candle (reversal) and strong move to the downside. This left it below the 20 day SMA for the first time since the beginning of April. The RSI is dropping at the midline in the bullish zone and the MACD dropping and positive.

The weekly chart shows the price pulling back through the 300% extension of the retracement of the 2022 drop and ending the streak of 9 positive weeks in a row. The RSI is rolling over in the bullish zone with the MACD rising and positive. There is support lower at 733 and 728 then 724 and 718 before 715 and 710. There is resistance above at 742 and 748.50 then 751.50 and 760. Uptrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

With the first week of June and the strong May employment report in the books, sentiment is shifting in the equity markets after starting the week at all-time highs. Elsewhere, look for Gold to continue a short term downtrend while Crude Oil falls in consolidation under $100/bbl, near a change of character to a downtrend. The US Dollar Index looks to continue to move higher in broad consolidation near the top of the range while US Treasuries continue to test support in consolidation after avoiding a shift in character. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue digestion in the short term uptrend, on the edge of a shift to downtrend, while Emerging Markets pull back in their uptrend.

The Volatility Index looks to continue lower in the normal zone, but higher, giving a bit less of a tailwind to equities. The charts of the SPY, the QQQ and the IWM continue to look extremely strong on the longer timeframe and have reset out of overbought conditions. On the shorter timeframe the SPY, the QQQ and the IWM also look strong, with all printing all-time highs to start the week, but resetting momentum lower with short term pullbacks to end the week. This could continue. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

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Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw, heading into the unofficial start of summer, equities continued to show strength, regaining their swagger following a stumble to start the week. Elsewhere looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue walking the fence between a downtrend and digestion in the uptrend while Crude Oil ($USO) bounced around in tightening consolidation around $100/bbl. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) looked to continue to drift higher in broad consolidation while US Treasuries ($TLT) continued to test support and a possible continuation of their downtrend. The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to continue digestion in the short term uptrend while Emerging Markets ($EEM) digested the new highs in their uptrend.

The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to continue lower in the normal zone, giving a tailwind to equities. The charts of the $SPY, the $QQQ and the $IWM continued to look extremely strong on the longer timeframe with a 8th positive week for the SPY. On the shorter timeframe the SPY, the QQQ and the IWM also looked very strong, retesting all-time highs after working off some of the overheated momentum levels.

The week played out with Gold drifting lower in consolidation to the long term moving average and bouncing while Crude Oil dropped back to a 6 week low. The US Dollar moved slightly lower in a tight range while Treasuries moved back into the consolidation zone negating a breakdown. The Shanghai Composite drifted lower on the edge of a downtrend while Emerging Markets made a series of new all-time highs after a gap up.

Volatility continued to tick lower, closing at a 4½ month low. This removed any pressure on equities and they rallied to new highs. This resulted in the SPY and the QQQ printing multiple new all-time highs including one to end the week Friday. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week just a stone’s throw from the all-time high. It corrected that with a new all-time high Tuesday and then paused Wednesday. Thursday saw another move higher and a new all-time high and it followed it up Friday ending at another all-time high. The RSI is moving up into overbought territory in the bullish zone and the MACD curling to cross up and positive.

The weekly chart shows the price continuing above the 300% extension of the retracement of the 2022 drop extending the streak to 9 positive weeks in a row. The RSI is rising in the bullish zone with the MACD rising and positive. There is support lower at 751.50 and 748.50 then 742 and 733 before 728 and 724. There is resistance above 758. Uptrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

With the month of May in the books and heading into a non-farm payroll week, equities continue to show strength, printing more new all-time highs. Elsewhere, look for Gold to continue walking the fence between a downtrend and digestion in the uptrend while Crude Oil bounces around in tightening consolidation around $100/bbl but near a change of character to a downtrend. The US Dollar Index looks to continue to drift higher in broad consolidation while US Treasuries continue to test support in consolidation after avoiding a shift in character. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue digestion in the short term uptrend while Emerging Markets make new highs in their uptrend.

The Volatility Index looks to continue lower in the normal zone, giving a tailwind to equities. The charts of the SPY, the QQQ and the IWM continue to look extremely strong on the longer timeframe with a 9th positive week for the SPY. On the shorter timeframe the SPY, the QQQ and the IWM also look very strong, with all printing all-time highs to start the week and then again Thursday. The SPY and QQQ ended with a 3rd record while the IWM was just short of joining them. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw, with April options expiration in the books and ceasefire giving traders more confidence it will hold up, equities showed continued strength driving to new all-time highs. Elsewhere, looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue recovering from the pullback while Crude Oil ($USO) transitioned to freefall. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) looked to continue to drift lower in consolidation while US Treasuries ($TLT) continued to hold over 15 month support like nothing is happening. The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to continue a short term uptrend while Emerging Markets ($EEM) pushed to new highs in their uptrend.

The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to continue to improve, as it dropped back to the normal zone removing all the pressure on equities. The charts of the $SPY, the $QQQ and the $IWM were now looking extremely strong on the longer timeframe with 3 long positive weeks moving to new highs. On the shorter timeframe the SPY, the QQQ and the IWM also looked very strong but were showing signs of overheated momentum and a possible pause.

The week played out with Gold rounding lower signaling a lower top while Crude Oil bounced at support. The US Dollar also found support and pushed slightly higher while Treasuries continued in a tight range in consolidation. The Shanghai Composite continued the 1 month move higher while Emerging Markets held in consolidation at the all-time high.

The Volatility Index rose slightly but remained in the teens. This continued to allow equities to move freely and they moved higher Monday before settling in a range. This resulted in the IWM making a new all-time high Monday and the SPY and QQQ printing a new all-time high Wednesday and another to end the week Friday. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

The SPY came into the week at a new all-time as it rode the Bollinger Bands® higher. It held there Monday and Tuesday, closing the Friday gap, and then made another new high Wednesday and again Friday. The RSI is rolling along the edge of overbought territory in the bullish zone and the MACD rising and positive.

The weekly chart shows the price continuing above the 261.8% extension of the retracement of the 2022 drop with 4 positive weeks in a row. The RSI is rising in the bullish zone with the MACD crossed up and positive. There is support lower at 707.50 and 703 followed by 697 and 692 then 689 and 685. There is no resistance above 714.50. Uptrend.

With one week left in April and ceasefire talks set in Pakistan, equities showed continued strength driving to new all-time highs for the second week in a row. Elsewhere, look for Gold to continue recovering from the pullback but testing traders’ patience while Crude Oil attempts to right itself after last week’s freefall. The US Dollar Index looks to continue to drift in consolidation while US Treasuries continue to hold over 16 month support like nothing is happening. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue a short term uptrend, closing in on the 2025 top while Emerging Markets push to new highs in their uptrend.

The Volatility Index looks to continue in the normal zone, removing all the pressure on equities. The charts of the SPY, the QQQ and the IWM continue to look extremely strong on the longer timeframe with a 4th positive week moving to new highs. On the shorter timeframe the SPY, the QQQ and the IWM also look very strong but continue to show overheated momentum and may need a pause. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.