#$finl

Foot Locker (FL): Much of its success can be credited to the growing popularity of basketball shoes. Foot Locker has established itself as the preeminent mall-based supplier of basketball shoes, leaps and bounds ahead of close competitor Finish Line. This distinct segment accounts for a large portion of its sales with yearly releases of Michael Jordan's and LeBron James's signature shoes driving those gains. Foot Locker is more than proficient in several of the other lines it carries as well, mainly running and casual footwear. Despite an influx of direct to consumer efforts from Nike and Under Armour, Foot Locker hasn’t seen a material impact on financial performance. Additionally, Dick’s Sporting Good’s better than expected report earlier this week sets a favorable tone for Foot Locker. Near term threats still persist including heavy international exposure and increasing competition.

Abercrombie and Fitch (ANF): Teen retailers have made a comeback in recent quarters but Abercrombie has missed the boat. The retailer posted a miss the past 2 quarters which included a significant year over year declines on both the top and bottom line. Abercrombie’s dismal performance has resulted in a 40% drop in the stock during 2016. Soft traffic trends in its flagship U.S. and tourist stores are expected to take its toll on comparable store sales for the remainder of the year. The company remains encouraged that the performance of its Hollister brand along with efficient cost controls can curb its losses. While tomorrow’s print is important, investors will be focused on guidance for the pivotal holiday season.

Finish Line, Inc. (FINL) Consumer Discretionary - Specialty Retail | Reports March 24, Before Market Opens

Key Takeaways

The Estimize consensus is looking for earnings per share of 23 cents on $451.45 million, 1 cent higher than Wall Street on the bottom line and right in line on the top

Finish Line is struggling to gain traction in this volatile retail environment

One way Finish Line intends to spark YoY earnings growth is by closing 150 of its least profitable stores over the next 4 years

What are you expecting for FINL? Get your estimate in here!

Retail footwear chain, Finish Line, is scheduled to report first quarter earnings tomorrow, before the opening bell. Investors are hoping the retailer can replicate the success they had during the holiday season, but realistically, expectations have been tepid. The Estimize consensus is looking for earnings per share of 23 cents on $451.45 million, 1 cent higher than Wall Street on the bottom line and right in line on the top. Compared to a year earlier this reflects a 21% decline in earnings with sales expected to rise by 2%. Per share and revenue estimates have dropped since its last report reflecting analyst’s pessimism towards the company. Besides downward trending earnings, the stock has suffered as well. In the past 12 months, shares of Finish Line have dropped 35% and the stock typically falls even further during earnings season. Despite exceeding expectations last quarter, estimates for Q1 remain rather muted. Last quarter featured increases in key financial metrics including net sales and comparable store sales. Digital channels continue to be the fastest growing and most reliable driver of earnings. The first quarter will likely be negatively affected by a tough retail environment. Additionally, Nike and Under Armour’s efforts to expand their direct to consumer models have hurt sales. Consumers now just need to visit Nike’s website to purchase their workout gear rather than visit a local Finish Line store. Also its store-in-store business with Macy’s has struggled to gain traction. One way the company intends to improve profitability is by shutting the doors on 150 of its worst performing stores, or 25% of its store base, in the next 4 years. On the competitive front, Sports Authority’s recent bankruptcy creates some customer acquisition opportunities for Finish Line, but Foot Locker still remains the biggest threat. Do you think FINL can beat estimates? There is still time to get your estimate in here!

DSW Inc. (DSW) Consumer Discretionary - Specialty Retail | Reports May 24, Before Market Opens

Key Takeaways

The Estimize consensus is calling for earnings of 47 cents per share on $698.75 million in revenue, 1 cent higher than Wall Street on the bottom line and right in line on the top

The company achieved several milestones in 2015 including opening 40 new domestic stores, a 22% increase in online sales and the acquisition of online shoe retailer Ebuys

DSW has focused on expanding omni channel capabilities to maintain its position against Amazon

What are you expecting for DSW? Get your estimate in here!

This quarter retailers have taken a beating. Despite some wins in the past few days, the overall trend has been bleak. This should continue into the following weeks when the remaining companies report. This week we get results from discount shoe retailer, DSW which are expected to come in mixed. DSW capped off 2015 with a beat on both the top and bottom line. That said, earnings declined 60% while sales only grew by 5%. The stock, as a result, has reacted negatively and is down over 40% in the past 12 months. Similar results are expected for this quarter.

The Estimize consensus is calling for earnings of 47 cents per share on $698.75 million in revenue, 1 cent higher than Wall Street on the bottom line and right in line on the top. Compared to a year earlier earnings are predicted to decline 12% but sales could increase by 6%. On average, the company consistently beats expectations, trumping the Estimize consensus 75% of the time and Wall Street 81% of reported quarters.Despite waning share prices, DSW fundamentals have been strong. Fourth quarter results featured a 5% increase in sales and nearly 1% gains in same store sales. The company also achieved several milestones in 2015 including opening 40 new domestic stores, 22% increase in online sales and the acquisition of online shoe retailer Ebuys. The acquisition is expected to bolster its position in ecommerce and off-price retail, two high growth areas in the retail sector. Early outlooks for fiscal 2016 predict that sales growth will continue to grow while pressure remains on margins and profits

Like most companies, DSW faces risks from Amazon’s growing position in the retail space. Besides Amazon, DSW competes with other big names like Finish Line, Foot Locker, JCPenney and Macy’s. Meanwhile, direct to consumer initiatives from Nike draw traffic away from shoe stores, shifting them directly to the vendor’s website. Do you think DSW can beat estimates? There is still time to get your estimate in here!

Finish Line, Inc. (FINL) Consumer Discretionary - Specialty Retail | Reports March 24, Before Market Opens

Key Takeaways

The Estimize consensus calls for EPS of $0.81, 1 cent below Wall Street, with revenue expectations of $569.23 million, about $2 million less than the Street

Finish Line is looking to reconcile some of its third quarter losses, when it missed EPS by 40 cents and revenue by $20 million

One way Finish Line intends to spark earnings is by closing 150 of its least profitable stores over the next 4 years

What are you expecting for FINL? Get your estimate in here!

Retail footwear chain, Finish Line, is scheduled to report fourth quarter earnings tomorrow, before the opening bell. Investors are hoping the retail company can recover the losses from its abysmal third quarter but realistically, expectations have been tepid. The Estimize consensus calls for EPS of $0.81, 1 cent below Wall Street, with revenue expectations of $569.23 million, about $2 million less than the Street. The Select Consensus on the other hand, is expected a modest loss of 1 cent on the bottom line and 2 million in sales. The Estimize community has maintained a pessimistic stance on profitability, revising EPS estimates down 18% in the past 3 months and 5% in the past month. It comes as no surprise that current estimates forecast a 9% YoY decline on the bottom line while sales are looking to rise a meager 3%. Finish Line is coming off a rough third quarter in which it missed on both the top and bottom line by a mile. Both Estimize and Wall Street had expected marginal losses in the the single digits for the quarter, but ultimately Finish Line posted EPS of -$0.49 and missed on the top line by $20 million. As a result, shares have taken a beating, falling 26.8% in the past 6 months. The company’s third quarter performance was severely impacted by a disruption in its supply chain following the implementation of a new enterprise management system. Finish Line ended the quarter with net sales decreasing 3.5% on a YoY basis and comp sales down 5.8%. One way FINL intends to improve profitability is by shutting the doors on 150 of its worst performing stores, or 25% of its store base, in the next 4 years. On the competitive front, Sports Authority’s recent bankruptcy creates some customer acquisition opportunities for Finish Line, but Foot Locker still remains the biggest threat. Finish Line maintains a sound balance sheet, ending the most recent quarter with no interest bearing debt and $55.3 million in cash and cash equivalents. Do you think FINL can beat estimates? There is still time to get your estimate in here!

Finish Line, Inc. (FINL) Consumer Discretionary - Specialty Retail | Reports January 7, Before Market Opens

Key Takeaways

The Estimize consensus calls for revenue of $412.47 million and EPS of $-.02

Despite a weak 2015, analysts have upgraded Finish Line stock to a “buy” rating

What are you expecting for FINL? Get your estimate in here!

After weak holiday consumer spending, many retailers were punished with feeble sales and declining share prices. Athletic footwear and apparel retailer, Finish Line (FINL), has been one of the hardest hit retailers in 2015 with share prices falling 24% of the course of the year. Despite a disastrous year, analysts expect the footwear company to rebound in 2016 and have recently upgraded the company to a “buy” rating. Even with positive momentum coming into their FQ3 2016 report, Finish Line is still expected to post meager earnings. The Estimize consensus calls for revenue of $412.47 million and EPS of $-.02, slightly more bullish than Wall Street’s estimates. Compared to FQ3 2015, this represents a YoY increase in revenue of 3.5%. However, as consumers transition toward casual athletic wear, Finish Line’s core business of running footwear and apparel is poised for a strong year. In the past, the health of athletic footwear and apparel was reflective of basketball sales. Finish Line had lost market share to Foot Locker, which had successfully carved out its niche as the preeminent basketball retailer. However there has been an ongoing transition in cultural trends towards casual athletic wear and running shoes. Fortunately, Finish Line has rebranded itself as running company through the Finish Line brand and its subsidiaries, Running Specialty Group and JackRabbit Sports. Besides the promise of their casual athletic products, Finish Line expects their women’s line and Macy’s shop in shop sales to grow. Despite the recent hiccup, the footwear company remains a destination for premium athletic footwear with the support of key brands like Nike and Under Armour. On the downside, Finish Line’s margins continue to shrink at the hands of a struggling basketball line. Yet, even with unimpressive numbers, Finish Line’s growth is expected to accelerate in the new year. Do you think FINL can beat estimates? There is still time to get your estimate in here!

Consumer Discretionary has been the second best performing sector of the S&P YTD. This trend has been bolstered by the strong relative performance of the restaurant industry; meanwhile other retail industries have experienced mixed to negative returns. We believe that positive economic factors will lead to a break of the sideways trend that general retail firms are currently experiencing. 

The restaurant industry has performed strongly compared to the broader market in the past five months. This is largely attributed to lower gas prices leading to consumers spending more on common luxuries such as eating out. In our last commentary on the retail sector, we identified a potential breakout in the restaurant space. This breakout has materialized with the DJ US Restaurant and Bars Index returning 11.14% vs. the S&P 500 returning 3.47% over the five month period ending May 1st 2015. While restaurants should continue to benefit from depressed gas prices, we believe broader retail industries are poised to receive the next wave of consumer discretionary spending.

Retail sales growth has been mixed throughout the past six months, with restaurant sales growing consistently and other retailing industries such as apparel and general merchandise reporting negative or mixed sales growth on a month to month basis. Gas prices started to fall in June 2014 and have found stability in the past four months. Depressed fuel prices tend to lead consumer action by twelve months, according to the KRR Global Institute. We now believe that consumers are accustomed to the new gasoline price environment and will begin to spend more of their discretionary income on general retail industries such as apparel, sporting goods, and home furnishings.

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BBRY Blackberry beat EPS forecast by 7 cents but did so on much weaker than expected revenues, shares dump 10% in the pre.

CERS - Shares up 12% on news the FDA approved Cerus' INTERCEPT Blood System for platelets

CTAS - Uniform kingpin Cintas beat EPS forecast by 8 cents & raised guidance, shares up nearly 6% here. FINL - Finish Line missed EPS and lowers forward guidance, shares fall 12% in the pre.

KMX - CarMax beat EPS, shares up 10% and surging nearly $5 through the 52-week high! PIR - Pier One reports in line EPS, which was enough to boost shares 10% in the pre.

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