#$jack

5 Trade ideas excerpted from the detailed analysis and plan for premium subscribers:

American Express, Ticker: $AXP

American Express, $AXP, comes into the week moving up off a higher low. The RSI is rising and the MACD is turning to cross up. Look for continuation to participate…..

Honeywell, Ticker: $HON

Honeywell, $HON, comes into the week breaking resistance. The RSI is rising in the bullish zone with the MACD positive and climbing. Look for continuation to participate…..

Jack in the Box, Ticker: $JACK

Jack in the Box, $JACK, comes in to the week moving over short term resistance. The RSI is moving into the bullish zone with the MACD positive and moving up. Look for continuation to participate…..

Northrop Grumman, Ticker: $NOC

Northrop Grumman, $NOC, comes into the week moving up out of consolidation. The RSI is also turning higher with the MACD leveling. Look for continuation to participate…..

Synchrony Financial, Ticker: $SYF

Synchrony Financial, $SYF, comes into the week moving higher at resistance. The RSI is rising and the MACD is about to cross up. Look for a push over resistance to participate…..

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After reviewing over 1,000 charts, I have found some good setups for the week. These were selected and should be viewed in the context of the broad Market Macro picture reviewed Friday which with the first week of November in the books, saw equity markets showed great strength with all major indexes finishing at all-time highs.

Elsewhere look for Gold to continue a short term uptrend while Crude Oil pulls back in its uptrend. The US Dollar Index continues on the verge of a reversal higher while US Treasuries continue in a short term uptrend. The Shanghai Composite looks to consolidate while Emerging Markets consolidate over long term support.

Tesla (TSLA): Tesla blew out expectations for the third quarter, with EPS coming in 67 cents higher than the Estimize consensus and $1.25 higher than what Wall Street was expecting after recording record deliveries and production. Third quarter gains consisted of 22,000 deliveries, down 10% sequentially, 12,700 of which were Model S vehicles and 9,500 Model X. This puts total deliveries for 2016 at 76,230, slightly below the goal of 80-90k. The company blamed the transition to new Autopilot hardware to the hold up in production from October through early December. One strong spot was demand, with Q4 net orders for the Model S and Model X at an all time high, and 52% higher than Q4 2015. Any insight on the release of the Model 3 and the integration of SolarCity could play a role in investors sentiment towards forward earnings.  

What are you expecting for TSLA? Get your estimate in here!

Fitbit (FIT): Wearable technology came and went in a matter of a couple years, leaving Fitbit in a position of weakness moving forward. The stock declined nearly 60% in the past 12 months with a large portion of that drop originating from management cutting guidance for the fourth quarter. With weak holiday sales on deck for the quarter to be reported, investors hope the company will introduce a new line of products or provide additional insights on restructuring efforts for fiscal 2017. However with new competition emerging in the deteriorating wearable technology, don’t expect a turnaround to surface in the near term. Forward estimates at Estimize project Fitbit to incur a loss for the next 4 quarters on notably weaker top line performance.

What are you expecting for FIT? Get your estimate in here!

Hewlett-Packard (HPQ): HPQ capped off its first full year on a sour note following the spin off of HP Enterprises. Net revenue dropped 6%, not including lost revenue from HPE, in fiscal 2016 to $48.2 billion owing to weak commercial and consumer printer sales. In the fourth quarter printer revenue declined 8% from a year earlier, broken down to a 10% drop in commercial units, 3% in consumer hardware and 12% from supplies. Surprisingly, personal system sales increased by 4% despite a perceived downturn in the PC market. To offset some of the recent losses, HPQ is pivotting to the highly profitable cyber security sector. The company's newest product, HP Sure Click, offers advanced protection to address the heightened concerns of digital attacks.

What are you expecting for HPQ? Get your estimate in here!

Jack in the Box (JACK): For three consecutive quarters Jack in the Box posted better than expected top and bottom line performance with accelerating growth. In the most recent report the company posted a 2% increase in same store sales across all Jack in the Box stores, broken down to a 0.5% increase in company owned stores and 2.4% in franchise. Qdoba restaurants increased 0.8% largely a byproduct of Chipotle struggles over the past 15 months. Like other restaurants, Jack in the Box continues to make investments in technology driven investments, renovating stores and new menu offerings. Its new focus on catering and expanding the breakfast menu to help stir up traffic.

What are you expecting for JACK? Get your estimate in here!

Square (SQ): Jack Dorsey can’t crack the proverbial puzzle of Twitter but he certainly make meaningful with Square thus far. Square is coming off consecutive earnings and revenue beats as it inches closer to profitability. The third quarter, in particular, delivered strong core payments on a 39% increase in gross payment volume. This comes along with continued traction in its chip readers and a catalogue of new software and services. Square is seeing similar success with Square Capital which surpassed $1 billion in total originations with more than 35,000 business loans spanning $208 million. Ongoing progress in the overall mobile payments space along with its financing service bodes well for the outlook of Square.

The TJX Companies (TJX): The TJX brands thrived in recent years despite greater downside in the retail space created by Amazon’s assault on the sector. Off price channels remain attractive in this current spending environment that favors quality but also cost effectiveness. As a result TJX posted robust earnings, sales and comparable sales growth for nearly 8 consecutive quarters. The third quarter, in particular, delivered a 7% increase on the top line along with a 5% jump in comparable store sales across all TJX brands. International sales, consisting of Europe and Australia, came in flat compared to high single digit growth from other business segments, owing to currency headwinds and ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty. That said, TJX’s loyal customer base, fresh offerings and recent focus on expanding its online platform promises to offset any losses from exchange rates.

What are you expecting for TJX? Get your estimate in here!

Transocean Ltd (RIG): The second half of 2016 benefited oil intensive companies due to OPEC’s agreement to cut production and Trump’s stance on rolling back policies that curbed oil profitability. That proved just as effective for offshore drilling companies like Transocean, whose stock jumped about 20% since the election and 60% from a year earlier. The rally in crude oil amid the recent events also boosted interest in new offshoring projects from Transocean.  It’s backlog of nearly $12.2 billion reflect steady demand but more importantly clear growth opportunities. Meanwhile, President Trump’s stance on oil, fossil fuels and the overall energy sector promotes greater fortunes for offshore projects.

What are you expecting for RIG? Get your estimate in here!

Jack in the Box (JACK): For three consecutive quarters Jack in the Box posted better than expected top and bottom line performance with accelerating growth. In the most recent report the company posted a 2% increase in same store sales across all Jack in the Box stores, broken down to a 0.5% increase in company owned stores and 2.4% in franchise. Qdoba restaurants increased by 0.8% largely a byproduct of Chipotle struggles over the past 15 months. Like other restaurants, Jack in the Box continues to make investments in technology driven investments, renovating stores and new menu offerings. Its new focus on catering and expanding the breakfast menu to help stir up traffic.

What are you expecting for JACK? Get your estimate in here!

Square (SQ): Jack Dorsey can’t crack the proverbial puzzle of Twitter but he certainly make meaningful with Square thus far. Square is coming off consecutive earnings and revenue beats as it inches closer to profitability. The third quarter, in particular, delivered strong core payments on a 39% increase in gross payment volume. This comes along with continued traction in its chip readers and a catalogue of new software and services. Square is seeing similar success with Square Capital which surpassed $1 billion in total originations with more than 35,000 business loans spanning $208 million. Ongoing progress in the overall mobile payments space along with its financing service bodes well for the outlook of Square.

What are you expecting for SQ? Get your estimate in here!

Mobileye (MBLY): Many experts believe that driverless cars are a near term reality that will revolutionize the automotive industry. This is particularly beneficial for Mobileye which develops driver assistance systems for collision prevention and mitigation. As a result both financial performance and share price value gained traction in the recent years. The stock currently trades 60% higher than a year earlier but historically declines by 1% immediately following an earnings report.

What are you expecting for MBLY? Get your estimate in here!

5 Trade ideas excerpted from the detailed analysis and plan for premium subscribers:

CME Group, Ticker: $CME

CME Group, $CME, has moved higher in 2016 off of a low in January. In September it stalled and pulled back to 100 before resuming the move higher, but at a steep rate. That found resistance and pulled back in a bull flag. It broke that flag last week to the upside and is now approaching the prior high. The RSI is bullish and has reset from an overbought condition, while the MACD arrested its fall and is reversing higher. Look for continuation to participate to the upside.....

Costco, Ticker: $COST

Costco, $COST, peaked in August just under 170 and fell back sharply, losing over 105 of its market cap in 2 weeks. It consolidated there for nearly 2 months before another dip lower at the start of November. The drop was short lived as it recovered in a "V" shape back to prior resistance. The RSI is over the mid line teasing a move into the bullish zone, while the MACD is flat but positive after a move higher. Look for a break above resistance to participate higher.....

Jack in the Box, Ticker: $JACK

Jack in the Box, $JACK, rose off of a low in April, plateauing in August. That led to a slight pullback and a bottom at the 50 day SMA in October. Since then though the stock has been moving higher again. The RSI is in the bullish zone and rising while the MACD is turning higher after avoiding a cross down. Look for a new high to participate to the upside.....

Louisiana-Pacific, Ticker: $LPX

Louisiana-Pacific, $LPX, started a run higher in late June that maxed out at 21 in mid-July. It made a double top there and started back lower in against falling trend resistance. This continued for nearly 4 months before it started back higher off of its 200 day SMA in mid-November. It stalled at the September top and has been pulling back in a bull flag since. Friday had a strong move higher to resistance, ending at the high. The RSI is in the bullish zone and rising while the MACD is avoiding a cross down. Look for a push through resistance to participate in the next leg higher....

United Technologies, Ticker: $UTX

United Technologies, $UTX, pulled back from a high in August to its 200 day SMA in October, a loss of 10% of its market cap. It held there for a while before a bounce that recovered most of that 10% in just 2 days. It stalled at the prior high and made a shallow pullback before rising to retest the top. The RSI is in the bullish zone and rising but the MACD is resetting over. Look for a push over resistance to participate to the upside.....

After reviewing over 1,000 charts, I have found some good setups for the week. These were selected and should be viewed in the context of the broad Market Macro picture reviewed Friday which heading into the last month of the year sees the equity markets retrenching from their post-election moves, with shallow pullbacks at this point.

Elsewhere look for Gold to continue in its downtrend while Crude Oil moves higher. The US Dollar Index continues to mark time, moving sideways, while US Treasuries are biased to continue lower. The Shanghai Composite is on a trend higher that looks to continue while Emerging Markets consolidate at resistance with a bias to the downside.

Volatility looks to remain low keeping the bias higher for the equity index ETF's SPY, IWM and QQQ. Their charts are mixed again, with the longer timeframe better for all 3, but the shorter timeframe showing weakness. All 3 ended the week with indecision candles though so the retrenchment may end soon. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad'em well.

Take advantage of the Holiday Sale here!

Jack in the Box ($JACK) stock had a great run higher in 2014, back when falling oil prices were supposed to be good for dining out, or whatever the narrative was.  But 2015 was not so great for the stock price, it has pulled back by that magical Fibonacci ratio of 38.2% from the top near 100 and has been consolidating in a range since September.

Looking a bit more closely at the consolidation shows an opportunity for a trade.  Three different views show this stock may be spring loaded for a move higher.  Long time readers know I love when this type of mosaic of technicals come together.  

The first thing to look at is the stock is at the bottom of the channel from 70 to 85.  The Japanese Candlesticks from Friday last week and Monday are potential reversal candles and they are being confirmed today.  The second is a Positive RSI Reversal.  This occurs when the RSI makes a new lower low in a pullback while the price does not.  The Positive RSI Reversal gives a target to 82.48.  Finally, it is moving higher off of the lower Bollinger Band®.  

All three of these combined give a very lucrative trade potential with a solidly defined risk point.  Using a stop lose at 70 gives a better than 3:1 reward to risk ratio.

Is Wendy’s the leader or the exception?

Burger stocks had a great run from October last year, but many have rolled over lately and are looking weak.  Is the sector done or is Wendy’s showing that after a touch at the 100 day moving average the path is higher again?

Welcome to This Week on Estimize. This week we’re joined by the Co-Founder of ChartIQ, Dan Schleifer. In this episode Leigh and Dan discuss the valuations of casual dining stocks Jack in the Box, El Pollo Loco, and Shake Shack, they share their bearish views on King Digital, and they chat about Semantic which Leigh calls “the old hag of the cyber security industry”.