#$dsw

Dollar Tree (DLTR): Dollar Tree had been outperforming the broader retail sector in recent years thanks to bargain basement prices and rapid expansion. That statement still holds true but shares have begun to slip after the dollar store missed its targets for the second quarter. Analysts had placed unrealistic expectations on the retailer that simply could not be met. This has sent shares plunging 15% in the 3 months following the print. Expectations for the third quarter are a bit tepid given its recent blunder but analysts still project sales to grow by 3% and earnings by 61%. Most of its growth will come on the back of its long term integration of the Family Dollar buyout and a foray into consumables/grocery type products. Dollar Tree still faces increasing costs and cannibalization from the Family Dollar incorporation which will likely continue throughout the integration process.

Campbell Soup (CPB): Shares of the soupmaker have started to tumble after consecutive quarters of failing to meet analysts estimates. Its portfolio of brands which largely consists of processed foods are simply not resonating with modern consumers and thereby dragging down financial performance. Shares are virtually flat this year but could plummet if tomorrow’s report does not meet its marks.

DSW Inc. (DSW): The broader rebound in the retail sector has come to bite discounters in recent quarters. DSW has been hit hard this year despite topping expectations in 2 of its past 3 quarters. Shares are down 7% since the company’s second quarter report with expectations that the stock will drop further following tomorrow’s results. Analysts are forecasting a 4% decline on the bottom line but a 7% increase on the top. Comparable sales are expected to decline 0.6% compared to a 3.9% decline in the previous quarter. Management has refrained from offering deeper discounts than it has in the past which will likely result in lower traffic trends and sales volume.

Barnes & Noble (BKS): Barnes & Noble is still feeling the effects from Amazon competition over the past decade. BKS was the first of Amazon’s many victims, making physical bookstores nearly obsolete. Today’s consumers liken a bookstore to a showroom which they only look and last purchase online. Needless to say Barnes & Noble’s performance has suffered in recent years. Some of these losses however have been offset by ecommerce and NOOK sales. Efforts to reduce expenses could provide some support to the bottom line. Management still expects comparable sales to decline in the low single digits for the fiscal 2017, a slight decline from its previous forecast.

Cracker Barrel (CBRL): The restaurant industry has had its shares of ups and downs this year with fast casual, quick service and casual dining in a dead heat for restaurant supremacy. Cracker Barrel has been amongst the leaders in the casual dining segment following a string of better than expected results. Comparable store sales continue to outperform the overall industry despite no alcohol offerings. Management indicated in its Q4 2016 report that comparable sales would fall in the range of 1 to 2% for fiscal 2017. The company also expects to open 7 to 8 new Cracker Barrel stores which will help support top line growth.

DSW Inc. (DSW) Consumer Discretionary - Specialty Retail | Reports May 24, Before Market Opens

Key Takeaways

The Estimize consensus is calling for earnings of 47 cents per share on $698.75 million in revenue, 1 cent higher than Wall Street on the bottom line and right in line on the top

The company achieved several milestones in 2015 including opening 40 new domestic stores, a 22% increase in online sales and the acquisition of online shoe retailer Ebuys

DSW has focused on expanding omni channel capabilities to maintain its position against Amazon

What are you expecting for DSW? Get your estimate in here!

This quarter retailers have taken a beating. Despite some wins in the past few days, the overall trend has been bleak. This should continue into the following weeks when the remaining companies report. This week we get results from discount shoe retailer, DSW which are expected to come in mixed. DSW capped off 2015 with a beat on both the top and bottom line. That said, earnings declined 60% while sales only grew by 5%. The stock, as a result, has reacted negatively and is down over 40% in the past 12 months. Similar results are expected for this quarter.

The Estimize consensus is calling for earnings of 47 cents per share on $698.75 million in revenue, 1 cent higher than Wall Street on the bottom line and right in line on the top. Compared to a year earlier earnings are predicted to decline 12% but sales could increase by 6%. On average, the company consistently beats expectations, trumping the Estimize consensus 75% of the time and Wall Street 81% of reported quarters.Despite waning share prices, DSW fundamentals have been strong. Fourth quarter results featured a 5% increase in sales and nearly 1% gains in same store sales. The company also achieved several milestones in 2015 including opening 40 new domestic stores, 22% increase in online sales and the acquisition of online shoe retailer Ebuys. The acquisition is expected to bolster its position in ecommerce and off-price retail, two high growth areas in the retail sector. Early outlooks for fiscal 2016 predict that sales growth will continue to grow while pressure remains on margins and profits

Like most companies, DSW faces risks from Amazon’s growing position in the retail space. Besides Amazon, DSW competes with other big names like Finish Line, Foot Locker, JCPenney and Macy’s. Meanwhile, direct to consumer initiatives from Nike draw traffic away from shoe stores, shifting them directly to the vendor’s website. Do you think DSW can beat estimates? There is still time to get your estimate in here!

AutoZone Inc (AZO) Consumer Discretionary - Specialty Retail | Reports May 24, Before Market Opens

Key Takeaways

The Estimize consensus is calling for earnings per share $11.01 on $2.66 billion in revenue, 5 cents higher than Wall Street on the bottom line and $8 million on the top

AutoZone has posted double digit earnings growth for 38 consecutive quarters

Ongoing efforts to expand store counts and drive same store sales continue to pay off

What are you expecting for AZO? Get your estimate in here!

The tide has turned on retail earnings. Poor earnings of the past month are slowly turning intto strong beats in the past few days . This week retailers including DSW Shoes, AutoZone and Costco hope to continue this trend. Lately, AutoZone has been a bright spot in the retail sector. The company which is best known as one of the largest retailers of aftermarket auto parts has been on a tear of late. Earnings have seen double digit gains in each of the past 8 quarters while sales have maintained high single digit growth over the same time frame. Expectations are generally high ahead of AutoZone’s third quarter results this Tuesday.

The Estimize consensus is calling for earnings per share $11.01 on $2.66 billion in revenue, 5 cents higher than Wall Street on the bottom line and $8 million on the top. Compared to a year earlier this reflects a 15% increase in earnings with sales expected to grow by 6%. Strong earnings have contributed to the success in the stock. Shares are up 10% in the past 12 months. AutoZone’s focus on expanding stores and growing same store sales continues to pay off. Last quarter featured a 3.6% increase in same store sales coupled with improvements in net income, revenue and gross margins. A large portion of its growth has been driven by success in both the retail and commercial businesses combined with increasing store counts and regular buybacks. In Q2, Autozone opened 30 new stores in the U.S. and 9 in Mexico, adding to the 5,600 stores in operation.

That said, Autozone should expect to see expenses rise as it plans to open 2-3 new distribution centers over the next three years. They also continue to see increasing competition from Advanced Autoparts, Pepboys and even Walmart and Costco. Walmart and Costco’s business as a one stop shop for all consumer needs might deter traffic to a highly focused store like AutoZone. Do you think AZO can beat estimates? There is still time to get your estimate in here!

All of these names have one big thing in common, their expectations have been revised upwards ahead of this week’s reports. Keep an eye on these earnings releases. 

Tuesday, March 15

Wednesday, March 16

Thursday, March 17

3D Systems (DDD)

Information Technology - Computers & Peripherals | Reports March 15, before the open.

The Estimize community is looking for EPS of $0.04 and revenue of $179.5 million, 4 cents below Wall Street on the bottom-line, and around $3 million below on the top. 3D Systems is seeing favorable revision activity lately with earnings and sales up 10% in the past three months. Compared with the same period last year, this predicts an 84% decline in earnings while sales are expected to decline by 6%.

What to Watch: What was once expected to be the next big thing, 3D Systems (DDD) and all other 3D printing companies had a disappointing 2015. 3D Systems is coming off a dismal third quarter, posting 94% YoY declines on the bottom line while also missing its sales number. Even on a constant currency basis, revenue dipped 3%. Macroeconomic factors, particularly currency headwinds, have been the biggest hindrance to the company’s financial performance, as they generate a large portion of revenue from international markets. Last week 3D Systems received a much needed boost after rival company Stratasys reported better than expected earnings. The rival company posted a loss of -$0.01 and revenue of $173.36 million which trumped expectations by 9 cents and $6 million, respectively. In the moments following, DDD shares jumped 7% and are now up 36.94% on the year. The company remains focused on expanding its strategic partnerships and emerging in the healthcare industry to cope with weaker demand.

DSW (DSW)

Consumer Discretionary - Specialty Retail | Reports March 15, before the open.

The Estimize consensus calls for EPS of $0.08, in-line with Wall Street, with revenue expectations of $643.47 million, roughly $2 million higher than the Street. The Select Consensus on the other hand, is showing a more modest beat of $1 million on the top line. The Estimize community has maintained an optimistic stance on DSW, revising EPS estimates up 9% since the company last reported. Compared to the year prior, current estimates predict a decline in profitability of 75%. On average, the company has consistently beat expectations, trumping the Estimize consensus 73% and Wall Street 81% of recorded quarters.

What To Watch: An interesting pattern has emerged in recent weeks, with retailers outperforming the market despite mixed quarterly earnings and weaker guidance. DSW’s upcoming fourth quarter earnings are expected to contribute to this trend. The footwear retailer beat in 2 of the past 3 quarters but consistently falls short of guidance. In the last reported quarter, DSW posted a 0.6% decline in sales while comp sales decreased 3.9% on a year-over-year basis. Yet investors responded positively, boosting shares 11.04% in the past three months. DSW’s focus on expanding its omni-channel network, smaller format stores and strategic acquisitions will be key to drive growth but also help protect them from internet competition. Earlier this year, the footwear retailer agreed to acquire online shoe retailer Ebuys for $62.5 million with a potential $55 earnings bonus on top of that. The acquisition is expected to bolster its position in ecommerce and off-price retail, two high growth areas in the industry. Ahead of its earnings next week, Goldman Sachs and Credit Suisse downgraded DSW’s stock, contradicting the current trend retailers are experiencing.  

The Children’s Place (PLCE)

Consumer Discretionary - Specialty Retail | Reports March 15, before the open.

Both Estimize and Wall Street are right in line on this one, with EPS expected to come in at $1.11 and revenues anticipated at $500 million. Both of these figures have improved significantly since the company last reported earnings, with the Estimize community increasing their Q4 earnings expectations by 8% and revenues by 4%, and an even greater lift from the sell-side of 12% and 5% on each of those metrics, respectively. This would project YoY profit growth of 17% and sales growth of 3%. And while this name beats on the bottom-line around 89% historically, it only beats revenue projections 44% of the time.

What to Watch: After a period of negative top and bottom-line growth in 2013 and 2014, The Children’s Place returned to the green on earnings in 2015, while revenues remained suppressed. During the third quarter, unseasonably warm weather across most of the US caused same store sales (SSS) to dip 3% compared to the prior year. However, at the time of the announcement on December 8, fourth quarter SSS were running positive at 4.5%, representing close to half of the company’s planned sales volume for Q4. Despite continued weakness in traffic, early results were positively impacted by increases in key selling metrics. Inventories also showed an improvement at the end of Q3, down 4.4% as compared to the year-ago period. Like so many others in the retail space, PLCE continues to invest in its omni-channel strategy, with the implementation of a new distributed order management system in the latest quarter. The company plans on closing 200 stores through 2017.

Ctrip.com International (CTRP)

Consumer Discretionary - Internet & Catalog Retail | Reports March 16, after the close.

The Estimize community is looking for EPS of $0.05 and revenue of $441.8 million, a nickel higher than Wall Street on the bottom line and a little over $7 million greater in sales. Ctrip has seen favorable revisions activity of late, with earnings soaring 57% in November. Compared with Q4 2014, this predicts a YoY increase on the bottom line by 130% while sales are expected to grow 42%. Historically the hospitality company has consistently beat expectations, trumping Estimize in 56% and Wall Street in 80% of recorded quarters.

What to Watch: Chinese travel has been a hot industry in the past year, prompting travel booking companies to rush to get in on the action. Leisure and outbound tourism have been the two biggest drivers for the travel market. In the fourth quarter international ticket volume grew 18.3% while China’s air passengers grew by 9.6% on a year-over-year basis. Ctrip has been the primary beneficiary of the rising travel trend, holding a dominant market position in the region. Recent partnerships with eLong and Qunar are expected to propel Ctrip’s market share in Chinese hotel and airline bookings to about 70%-80%. Moreover, Priceline’s recent $500 million investment in Ctrip will help bolster its expansion in outbound travel. Ctrip’s consolidation of the Chinese travel industry and growth in the global market gives it the scale and distribution power to generate more meaningful margins. Shareholders have been pleased with the company’s progress as shares have skyrocketed 66.91% in the past 12 months

Aeropostale (ARO)

Consumer Discretionary - Specialty Retail  | Reports March 17, after the close.

The Estimize Select Consensus calls for EPS of -$0.04, 4 cents below Wall Street, while revenue expectations of $545.8 million are $4 million under the Street. However, our Select Consensus is more bullish, expecting EPS to come in flat. The Estimize community has been optimistic on Aeropostale’s profitability in the past three months, revising EPS estimates up 54%. Since February 5 revisions have been more rampant, with earnings soaring 92% and revenues up 4%. These estimates predict as a YoY decline of 585% on the bottom line, while sales are expected to contract 7%. Aeropostale has consistently outperformed expectations, beating Wall Street in 63% of reported quarters.

What to Watch: Last week, both Abercrombie and American Eagle reported strong earnings, signaling a potential turnaround for teen retailers. Since then, shares of Aeropostale have soared and are now up 51.79% year to date. Investors are hoping the positive momentum created by ANF and AEO continues when Aeropostale reports fourth quarter earnings next week. Last quarter the company saw net sales decrease by 20% thanks to 10% declines in comparable sales and e-commerce channels. Aeropostale announced that they would be laying off 100 corporate employees in Q4 as part of an effort to lower expenses by $40 million a year. This comes as no surprise given the company has reported a loss in seven of the past eight quarters.  Instead of trying to keep pace with fashion trends, the company remains focused on providing teens with a uniform of basic clothing. So far, that strategy has failed.

How do you think these names will report this week? Contribute your estimates here!

AAPL - Reports that Apple with launch web TV service later this year. The service would work across all devices powered by Apple's iOS, which includes iPads, iPhones and Apple tv boxes. Speculation is that it will be a bundle of 25 channels including broadcast tv giants ABC, Fox, CBS, ESPN, FX. You’ll notice I did not include NBC Universal and that is because Comcast and Apple are just not getting along, again according to industry reports. The service could be priced around $30-40/month.  

DSW - Shares up nearly 6% after significant EPS beat on stronger revenue.

MBLY - Mobileye boosted its secondary offering from 14.5M shares up to 17.1M shares offered at $41.75.

PLUG - Plug Power missed EPS forecasts by 4 cents on weaker revenues, we show shares of the fuel cell power provider trading down nearly 10%.

TIF - Tiffany was down 2% after a slight EPS miss and lowered guidance, but now turned around to a 2% gain as traders used weakness to buy in the pre. BRCD - Brocade down 4% after missing whisper numbers on top and bottom lines.

NUAN - Nuance is up 5% in the pre after they beat EPS on stronger revenue. CBRL - Cracker Barrel beat EPS forecasts by 13 cents on stronger revenus, shares up $3.70 on the TradeMONSTER extended hours platform. DANG - The E-Commerce giant mised EPS forecasts shares down 3.6% in the pre. QIHU - Qihoo 360 is up over 3% after an EPS beat and raised sales guidance.

DSW - We all have much to be thankful for. Today, I'm thankful that DSW posted such stellar numbers, as I had made this my final trade on CNBC's Fast Money Halftime November 13th! Our wealth management clients didn't have to wait long for shares to jump from $31.53 to over $36! BANG! 

(Photo Credit: Mike Mozart)

DSW beat Wall Street earnings expectations by a wide margin on Tuesday, and to many investors it came as a shock. Shares of DSW had been trading just shy of $30, only two thirds of their 52 week high ($47.55). Tuesday morning DSW crushed its quarterly earnings expectations from Estimize, driving shares 9% higher.

(Graph above from ChartIQ Visual Earnings)

DSW stock fell off a cliff last quarter after badly missing earnings estimates. Shares plunged 27% as the shoe retailer reported earnings of 42 cents per share while analysts on Estimize had predicted 49 cents.

DSW wasn’t the only retailer in a funk last quarter. Retail sales across the board were a disaster, and most retail company CEOs including DSW’s Mike MacDonald stuck to the script blaming the poor weather for the challenging quarter and reduced store traffic. On top of a weak quarterly sales figure DSW lowered its earnings outlook for the remainder of year, which resulted in many shareholders abandoning ship.

Tuesday morning DSW made a change of course, revealing a stronger than previously forewarned second quarter. Earnings jumped to 37 cents per share, and DSW increased its outlook for the remainder of the year slightly, but did not fully restore the guidance management had initially set for 2014.

Although earnings did come in better than expected on Tuesday, not everything was peachy. Profits fell considerably compared to the same quarter of last year. In FQ2 of DSW's fiscal 2014 the shoe seller produced EPS of 37 cents per share impressing investors given the low expectations, but the company’s earnings slipped from 49 cents last year to only 37 cents per share this quarter.

DSW Inc. (DSW) is set to report FQ4 2014 earnings before the market opens on Tuesday, March 18th. DSW is a footwear retailer formerly known as Designer Shoe Warehouse. Retail companies have faced a difficult quarter, citing frequent snowstorms and extremely cold temperatures for reduced customer traffic and fewer sales. As other retailers have posted weaker than expected earnings this season, expectations for DSW have fallen correspondingly. Despite the diminished expectations, the buy side is optimistic about Tuesday’s report. Here’s what investors are expecting from DSW’s earnings release.

The information below is derived from data submitted to the Estimize.com platform by a set of Buy Side and Independent analyst contributors.

(Click Here to see Estimates and Interactive Features for DSW)

The current Wall Street consensus expectation is for DSW to report 29c EPS and $578.78M revenue while the current Estimize.com consensus from 12 Buy Side and Independent contributing analysts is 32c EPS and $587.69M in revenue. This quarter the buy-side as represented by the Estimize.com community is expecting DSW to beat the Wall Street consensus on both EPS and revenue.

By tapping into a wider range of contributors including hedge-fund analysts, asset managers, independent research shops, students, and non professional investors Estimize has created a data set that is more accurate than Wall Street up to 69.5% of the time, but more importantly it does a better job of representing the market’s actual expectations. It has been confirmed by an independent academic study from Rice University that stock prices tend to react with a more strongly associated degree to the expectation benchmark from Estimize than from the Wall Street consensus.

The magnitude of the difference between the Wall Street and Estimize consensus numbers often identifies opportunities to take advantage of expectations that may not have been priced into the market. In this case we are seeing a slightly larger than usual difference between the 2 groups’ expectations.

The distribution of estimates published by analysts on the Estimize.com platform range from 19c to 34c EPS and from $572.00M to $630.0M in revenues. This quarter we’re seeing a larger than usual distribution of estimates on DSW.

The size of the distribution of estimates relative to previous quarters often signals whether or not the market is confident that it has priced in the expected earnings already. A wider distribution of estimates signaling less agreement in the market, which could mean greater volatility post earnings.

Over the past 4 months the Wall Street EPS consensus dropped from a high of 31c to 29c while the Estimize consensus decreased from 34c to 32c. Meanwhile the Wall Street revenue forecast fell from $595.58M to $578.78M while the Estimize forecast tumbled from $608.19M to $587.69M. Timeliness is correlated with accuracy and downward analyst revisions at the end of the quarter are often a bearish indicator.

The analyst with the highest estimate confidence rating this quarter is brianibanez who projects 29c EPS and $572.0M in revenue. In the Winter 2014 season brianibanez is rated as the 77th best analyst and is ranked 142nd overall among over 3,950 contributing analysts. This season brianibanez has been more accurate than the Street in forecasting EPS and revenue 80% and 70% of the time respectively over 10 estimates. Estimate confidence ratings are calculated through algorithms developed by deep quantitative research which looks at correlations between analyst track records and tendencies as they relate to future accuracy. In this case brianibanez is making a bearish call expecting DSW to come up short of the Estimize community’s expectations on both EPS and revenue.

While expectations have fallen throughout the quarter alongside broad retail weakness, contributing analysts on the Estimize platform believe DSW can beat the earnings target set by Wall Street. This quarter the Estimize community has forecast that DSW will beat the Street by a decent margin, but the large distribution of estimates and sinking analyst estimate revisions both contribute to a high degree of uncertainty. Expect volatile price action in DSW on Tuesday morning.