Scale of Dragon, Tooth of Wolf: ASOIAF and the Wars of the Roses
The hardest thing about writing this meta was literally, where to begin? I will apologize in advance, as I will try to keep my thoughts as tidy and streamlined as possible, but I have a lot to cover and do tend to run away with my words at times. This is a collaborative meta of sorts, as I drew insight, inspiration and help in constructing this massive baby from the wonderful @thewesterwoman (who also contributed parts of it, as noted within).
So, I suppose we’ll start where I begun. A few weeks ago, I stumbled onto this meta about Jamie Lannister and how he may actually be TPTWP. Now, before you shrug that off, I suggest you read this:
https://thewesterwoman.tumblr.com/post/163650220053/azor-ahai-and-the-matter-of-jaime-irony-and
And while you’re at it, make sure you give @thewesterwoman a follow because her brilliant analytical mind is a blessing to this fandom. Yes, she even ships Jonsa (but less flailing and more logic). 😉
After reading her meta, I was definitely intrigued, so I began some research of my own, and this theory is actually a lot more popular (especially with book readers) than you may think. It prompted me to send her this ask:
https://thewesterwoman.tumblr.com/post/163779372473/so-if-you-think-that-jamie-may-be-the-one-who
Her answer only served to intrigue me more, and we struck up a private convo discussing all the War of the Roses similarities, and how GoT might actually come to its bittersweet end -and so this meta was born. It will be part tinfoil/part actual history. Let’s begin.
So with that said, let us first focus on the last three major houses left in GoT: the Lannisters, the Starks and the Targaryens -and the three* major players of the War of the Roses: the Lancasters, the Yorks and the Tudors. Marinate on that a minute. Okay? Good. Here’s what you should have came up with:
Tudor (Plantagenet)/Targaryen *
*History shows us that the War of the Roses actual main players were the Lancasters and Yorks, but for all of you who are not historian buffs (me), they both descended from the same royal house: Plantagenet and ended with Tudor. Think of them as Alpha and Omega.* Oh, and wouldn’t you know -what an incestuous web they wove, but that’s a meta for another day. 😂
As per Wikipedia (and because I’m lazy):
The House of Plantagenet (/plænˈtædʒᵻnᵻt/) was a royal house which originated from the lands of Anjou in France. The name Plantagenet is used by modern historians to identify four distinct royal houses – the Angevins who were also Counts of Anjou, the main body of the Plantagenets following the loss of Anjou, and the houses of Lancaster and York, the Plantagenets’ two cadet branches. The family held the English throne from 1154, with the accession of Henry II, until 1485, when Richard III died.
One other thought ( @thewesterwoman adds )- as many have noted, Westeros is obviously a continent-sized, fantasy-version of Britain (with the North more or less standing in for Scotland). Westerosi history is similarly based on British history, which saw several waves of migration from foreign invaders that greatly resembles the Westerosi invasions by the First Men, the Andals, and finally the Targaryens.
The Targaryens in particular seem to represent the Norman invasion of England, which was led by William the Conqueror, who I take for a direct analogue to Westeros’s own Aegon the Conqueror (a foreign invader who united several warring kingdoms into one country under his reign). This is relevant to our theory because the royal English House of Plantagenet (and thus the House of Tudor as well) is more or less directly descended from the dynasty founded by William the Conqueror, just as the Targaryens are from Aegon the Conqueror.
Amidst the War a King is Born
As you all know, the War of Roses was put to an end by Henry Tudor, or King Henry VII -also known as the first King of the Tudor line. I’m not going to dive fully into his entire biography -just the parts/similarities that fit in the GoT narrative.
The War of the Roses broke out prior to his birth on May 22, 1455 and Henry was born on January 28, 1457 -the son of Lady Margaret Beaufort, and Edmund Tudor, first Earl of Richmond (half brother to King Henry VI). Edmund, a Lancastrian, was taken prisoner by Yorkist forces mere months after his marriage to Margaret, and died in captivity less than a year later, leaving behind a 13-year-old widow who was seven months pregnant with their child -whom she birthed at the tender age of 14.
This sounds vaguely familiar -like a lovable bastard prince we know, who’s mother birthed him at a tender age, his father dying in a “rebellion” of sorts -War of the Roses/Roberts Rebellion. But wait -the similarities don’t end there. While Margaret didn’t die like Lyanna -Henry would be her only child. The birth was described as “particularly difficult; at one point, both the Countess and her child were close to death, due to her young age and small size”. She never gave birth again. After his father’s death, Margaret and Henry were taken in by Edmunds brother Jasper (Henry’s uncle), the Duke of Pembroke.
Now here’s where it gets tricky … because I’m about to split Henry’s upbringing into two parts, or rather -two characters: Jon Snow and Danaerys Targaryen.
When Edward IV became the first Yorkist King in 1461, Jasper fled abroad and Castle Pembroke, along with the Earldom were given over to the Yorkist, William Herbert -who then took over guardianship of the 4 year old Henry and his mother. Henry lived in the Herbert household until 1469 (he was 12) when more York/Lancaster drama ensued and Henry VI reclaimed his throne.
At some point, fearing her son’s safety, Margaret sent Henry into exile with his uncle Jasper -where he remained, garnering French and Welsh support before returning to lay a claim to the throne. When Henry Tudor invaded England, his army consisted of French mercenaries and Welsh warriors – which would be considered a largely foreign group (foreign invaders -Dothraki and the Unsullied).
So, you see how in comparison to Henry’s early life, we could easily divide aspects of it between both Jon and Dany. Being raised by an uncle, being exiled for safety, garnering foreign support and returning to claim their “birthright”. It’s also important to note that with his father dying prior to his birth, Henry fought claims of illegitimacy (bastard) for most of his life.
Henry also made some political capital out of his Welsh ancestry, attracting military support and safeguarding his army’s passage through Wales on his way to the Battle of Bosworth. He came from an old, established Anglesey family that claimed descent from Cadwaladr (a Welsh King depicted in legend, the last ancient British king), and on occasion Henry displayed that Welsh standard.
That Welsh standard Henry fought and conquered under? Well I’m glad you asked … The flag of Wales (Welsh: Baner Cymru or Y Ddraig Goch, meaning the red dragon) .
A red dragon! You don’t say? Where have we seen that before? Oh, right …the Targaryen house sigil.
But Henry’s welsh dragon isn’t just ANY dragon, but -a dragon that’s attached to a prophecy: Y Mab Darogan.
From Wikipedia (again because I’m lazy):
Y Mab Darogan (pronounced [ə mɑːb darɔˈɡan] meaning “The Destined/Prophesised Son” or “Son of Destiny”) is a messianic figure of Welsh legend, destined to force the English out of Britain and reclaim it for its Celtic inhabitants. A number of figures have been called Y Mab Darogan in history (other titles include Y Gŵr Darogan and Y Daroganwr). An extensive corpus of medieval Welsh prophetic verse, beginning with Armes Prydain (10th century?), is centred on the figure of Y Mab Darogan.
A prince who was promised? Ya don’t say?!?!
Several historical figures have thought to have been this “Son of Destiny” -even King Arthur of Camelot. With poets and supporters labeling Henry the prophesied prince, it certainly didn’t hurt in strengthening his claim to the throne. Later, his reign over England was believed to be the prophecy fulfilled -a belief that he encouraged by naming his firstborn son Arthur.
As most of you know, Henry later wed Elizabeth of York. They were third cousins -both great-great grandchildren of John of Gaunt. The marriage unified the two warring houses and gave any of their future children strong claims to the throne. The unification of the houses of York and Lancaster by this marriage is symbolised by the Tudor Rose -a combination of the white rose of York and the red rose of Lancaster.
*Remember this, because we’ll come back to this later when I make my endgame predictions.
I would also like to present to you, the Tudor house Coat of Arms (under Henry VII and the first half of his son, Henry VIII’s reign):
A red dragon, a white dog (wolf) and a golden lion sitting atop the crest, amid the Tudor roses.
As Alice (in Wonderland) would say: Curiouser and curiouser ….
The White Rose (of Winterfell?)
A red-headed beauty -Elizabeth of York was described as fair of hair and face. The eldest child, she had two younger brothers (known as the Princes in the Tower) who disappeared shortly after her father’s death -thought to be murdered by her uncle.
From Wikipedia (and you guessed it, because I’m lazy):
“The Princes in the Tower” is an expression frequently used to refer to Edward V, King of England and Richard of Shrewsbury, Duke of York. The two brothers were the only sons of Edward IV of England and Elizabeth Woodville surviving at the time of their father’s death in 1483. When they were 12 and 9 years old, respectively, they were lodged in the Tower of London by the man appointed to look after them, their uncle, the Lord Protector: Richard, Duke of Gloucester. This was supposedly in preparation for Edward’s forthcoming coronation as king. However, Richard took the throne for himself and the boys disappeared.
Compare this if you’d like, to Sansa’s brothers Bran and Rickon “disappearing” -first thought to be murdered by Theon, then Rickon actually being murdered, and Bran essentially dying as well, now that he’s the 3 eyed Raven. This may be a bit tin foilish, but Bran was also pushed from a Tower -which sent the whole chain of events in motion.
Despite being a political arrangement at first, the marriage between Henry and Elizabeth proved successful and both partners appear to have grown to love each other. Jon and Sansa have already proven to share a powerful loving bond rooted in trust.
Aren’t the Starks (Yorks) supposed to be the good guys, and the Lannisters (Lancasters) the bad? I’m glad you asked, and I’ll hand you over to @thewesterwoman for that …
When it comes to the Wars of the Roses, one side - the Lancasters - has traditionally been presented in a far more positive light than the other - the Yorks. This is because the Tudor dynasty which ultimately emerged the victor of the war was descended in the male line from the Lancasters, making them the ‘winning’ side. As such, the vast majority of primary sources from after the war paint the Lancasters in a flattering light and the Yorks in a negative one, in an effort on the part of their writers to gain favor with the current reigning monarchs of England.
Today, this is especially noticeable in Shakespeare’s ‘history plays,’ several of which - Henry IV Part One, Henry IV Part Two, Henry IV Part Three, and Richard III - deal directly with the historical events of the Wars of the Roses. Shakespeare was writing during the reign of Elizabeth Tudor, and had an obvious motive for depicting her forebears as the heroes of the story that ultimately led to her rule. This is especially notable in Richard III, where the evil schemes of Richard of York lead England into chaos until the heroic Henry Tudor (a Lancastrian, and Elizabeth’s direct ancestor) finally emerges to defeat him and save the realm.
GRRM seems to have taken his fictional noble houses Stark and Lannister from the real-world Yorks and Lancasters, and they retain vestiges of the stereotypes of their historical counterparts. House Stark is strongly associated with tradtionally ‘evil’ motifs: ice, winter, death, and wolves (connoting the Big Bad Wolf of many fairytales). House Lannister, in contrast, has many ‘heroic’ connotations: warmth, sunlight, gold, and lions (which incidentally are on the royal coat of arms of England). From a distance, the Lannisters - with their wealth, beauty, and natural charisma - would seem like a natural fit for the protagonists of any story, while the Starks - known for their grim and gloomy dispositions and ominous House words - would seem like more natural antagonists.
But this is of course not the case. GRRM has both reversed the traditional historical narrative of the good Lancasters versus the evil Yorks, and the traditional motifs that we associate with good versus bad characters. In ASOIAF, the Starks are the heroes and the Lannisters are the villains, despite their respective surface appearances. This is both very interesting and very typical of GRRM, who loves to invert our expectations of fantasy narratives.
And now it’s time to put your tin foil hats on, because it’s endgame prediction time ….
So what does this all mean?
So if Jon and Dany are actually the two facets of Henry’s life prior to the crown -the exiled conqueror (Dany) and the “bastard” prince (Jon) raised by a Yorkist (Stark) -also his uncle, where does that leave Dany? Well, I’m pretty sure Dany will meet her death on the other side of the wall.
Let us return to Dany’s time spent in the House of the Undying -to simplify, we’ll use the show version. We’ll come back to her time in the throne room later, but first -remember when she stepped through what looked curiously like the gates to the other side of the wall -into the wintery beyond?
Here, she was reunited with her true love and husband, Khal Drogo and their son, Rhaego.
Here, she was reunited with her true love and husband, Khal Drogo and their son, Rhaego.
Perhaps this was a foreshadowing of sorts, that she will die in battle beyond the wall during the Long Night, and in death, be reunited with her son and husband -who wait for her in some form of purgatory, so they can all ride together into the Night Lands?
Drawing from the Henry Dany/Jon parallels, and if you’d like to get real tinfoil-y, we could look at Targcest as a way of melding these two halves of Henry into one. Maybe Dany perishes before the showdown with Cersei -leaving that war for Jon to be the parallel to Henry’s Battle of Bosworth -the battle that won him the crown by conquest -as to which he strengthened by then marrying Elizabeth of York.
*I’d like to make that very clear. He didn’t use his new wife to seal the deal, he used conquest (in defeating his rival) -he strengthened his throne (and future line of succession) in marrying EoY.
Returning back to Dany’s visions in The House of the Undying, she enters the throne room and it looks destroyed -although the throne still remains intact. Some people think it was ash falling through the broken ceiling -others snow. I’m going with the latter. Here’s why:
Dany approaches the throne, but does not touch it -instead she walks out the door which led her to the other side of the wall (to her family). She’s come to Westeros, but she will never be the queen. Instead, Jon will be the reluctant King -again thrust into a position of leadership that he doesn’t necessarily want, but will accept for the good of all. He will not be a King who conquered, but instead a King that was chosen.
Since Jon is both a Stark and a Targaryen, but his Targaryen lineage is what gives him a right to the Iron Throne -ironically, a Targaryen will once again rule Westeros. With Dany’s death, so dies the old House Targaryen that she represents, with Jon being the start of a new (and as @thewesterwoman points out -less incestuous) dynasty. This would again mirror the fate of House Plantagenet.
But will he rule as a Targaryen? Or a Stark? Maybe neither?
Perhaps he will rule as a Snow -which considering the connotations, and how being a bastard plagued him his entire life, it would certainly be rather poetic. The Snow falling in the throne room could be a foreshadowing of this. The Targaryen structure is destroyed, but the throne that Targaryen and Lannisters have sat on, is intact.
And remember this? The blending of the Lancaster and York roses into the Tudor rose?
This also leads me to believe that Jon might start a new house entirely, and create his own house sigil -combining the Targaryen and Starks somehow, but allowing BOTH original houses to die off -much like both the Lancasters and Yorks, with no male heirs left to carry on the names. In the books, snow is a big theme in a lot of Sansa’s arc -especially the time she spends as Alayne in the Vale. Many have already drawn these parallels to Jon.
There Must Always be a Stark in Winterfell
(Inspired by the ask I sent thewesterwoman)
Bran has made it pretty clear that he is NOT the Lord of Winterfell. Bran technically isn’t even Bran anymore. *Think of Elizabeth of Yorks two brothers (the princes in the tower). If Arya marries, she will take her husband’s name -same with Sansa. So, if Jon doesn’t take the Stark name, the Stark name perishes, too.
Consider if you will, that Winterfell falls in the Long Night. It was built by Brandon Stark (aka: Bran the builder), one of the “First Men”, as well as the founder of House Stark. He also is said to have built the Wall -“raised it with the aid of Giants”, according to legend. Ironically, the Night King is known to be one of the First Men, too. Supposedly, Bran Stark is in the Winterfell crypts, although some have speculated that he’s actually the NK.
What if there’s something “magical” behind Winterfell and it’s crypts? When Bran asked undead Benjen to come with them to the other side of the wall, he said he couldn’t, as there was magic carved into the foundation of the Wall, and as long as it stood, he could not pass. Maybe there’s something magical connected to Winterfell and the phrase “there must always be a Stark in Winterfell” and, that it’s all somehow connected to the Night King.
If the Night King is defeated once and for all, and Winterfell falls, there’s no longer a “need” for a Stark to be there -giving credence to the theory of Jon starting a new house entirely.
With the Starks being the “good guys” and the story mostly framed around them, Jon and Sansa as Ned/Cat 2.0 yet, the end of House Stark sounds pretty bittersweet to me.
Of course, this is all just speculation …
War of the Roses was only one of many things that GRRM drew inspiration from.
*credit to @sardoniyx for this AMAZING manip work!*
