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Ultimate Base Inkling ****** / * Ridley ***** / ** Simon *** / * King K Rool ** / * Isabelle ***** / *** Incineroar ** / **

Inkling is the guarantee this round. Splatoon is huge and it's going to get more reps, not less. Isabelle is in the same boat, but theoretically she could be replaced.

Ridley is the sole non-Samus rep for Metroid, and hugely requested for years. With Dread's success and Prime 4 upcoming, he's unlikely to be cut and there's few possible replacements unless Prime 4 provides new characters. There's an outside chance of him being replaced by Raven Beak but… it's tiny.

K Rool on the other hand is likely to be cut. But if they go cut heavy enough, he's likely to be replaced by Dixie instead, and maybe come back as DLC?

Simon is the sole new third party rep in base, and Konami is… unpredictable. No clue what's up there.

Ultimate First Party DLC Piranha Plant ** / * Byleth **** / ** Min Min **** / * Pyra / Mythra *** / **

Piranha Plant seems high on the chopping block of random reps. The only saving grace is the Mario IP attached. Byleth is quite unique, and Three Houses is the best received Switch FE, so they're likely to return. Min Min will be back so long as an ARMS 2 is in development, which seems likely. If the IP was actually abandoned, then maybe not.

Pyra and Mythra are still quite relevant, but are two characters in one two make, plus we might get other Xeno reps instead.

Ultimate Third Party DLC Joker * / * Hero ** / ** Banjo & Kazooie *** / * Terry ** / * Steve / Alex *** / * Sephiroth * / * Kazuya *** / * Sora * / * Most of the third party DLC characters are likely to stay as DLC if they ever come back in future titles. Steve / Alex might be base thanks to Microsoft's current 'play nice' policy if they really want to promote the movie, and B-K might be cheap enough because of the same policy. Hero is the only Squeenix character that really stands a chance if he's promting DQ XII this time, but they're a mess to work with. Kazuya might happen if Bandai-Namco is developing, but he might just be held back for early DLC instead.

Possible New Characters

Ring Fit Trainee / Dragaux - Discussed above as a Wii Fit Trainer replacement

Howard - Astral Chain is the only other major new IP with notable characters (though a Labo character is possible), and with it being Platinum's best selling title an Astral Chain 2 is likely in the works. Since they own the IP, this is an easy fit.

Oatchi - Pikmin can finally get a second rep, with a character that's cute enough to appeal to non-Pikmin fans. Pikmin 4 sold super well, having already well outsold any other single release, so a second rep seems likely.

Squid Sisters - A two-in-one character, maybe inspired by Ice Climbers if they don't return. Splatoon is huge, so I can't see it not getting a second rep. There's a ton of popular characters, but Marie and Callie literally had real life concerts.

Tom Nook - Animal Crossing is huge, and Tom Nook seems a likely choice for a third rep. Not super confident it'll be him, but he does seem the most likely.

Riju - Zelda is huge, so a BotW / TotK rep seems almost guaranteed. Riju seems to meet the requirements the best, being relevant in both games. It does mean another swords(wo)man, but ah well. She's still fun, even if I'd prefer Revali, Sidon, or Tulin.

Rillaboom - Assuming we don't have Gen 10 by the time we start development, Rillaboom is the most likely Gen 9 rep from Pokemon. Still, it could be anyone.

Brawl Base Meta Knight **** / ** Pit **** / ** Zero Suit Samus *** / ** Wario **** / *** Ike ** / ** Pokemon Trainer ** / ** Charizard **** / ** Diddy Kong **** / ** Lucas * / * King Dedede **** / ** Captain Olimar ****** / ***

Meta Knight and Dedede are both iconic Kirby villains, and not particularly likely to be cut, nor do they need reworks. Wario is the same for Mario, but a rework is a toss-up. Diddy is also huge, but has no guarantee.

Pit is in danger is Sakurai isn't back, with no new games in development. Still, he's got a decent chance of sticking around anyways, considering the series currently has three reps.

Ike and Pokemon Trainer both are from overcrowded series, and unlikely to stick around over new reps. Charizard could once again continue solo however, he's done it before and his popularity is still huge.

Lucas is pretty much dead, sadly. Mother is a dead IP, and Ness is rep enough for it, especially since Mother 3 is never leaving Japan.

Olimar is the base game's one guarantee, with Pikmin 4's success and his continued relevance to the franchise.

Brawl Unlockables Lucario *** / * R.O.B. ** / * Toon Link **** / * Wolf * / *

Star Fox's ill fortune makes Wolf being cut again quite likely. Lucario comes from the overcroweded Pokemon roster, but does at least have the sustained popularity to possibly make the cut. Toon Link is far more likely to stay than most semi-clones, but not a guarantee. And R.O.B. is really director's choice.

Brawl Third Parties Sonic ***** / ** Snake ** / *

Our first third parties! Sonic is the least likely of all third parties to be cut, but there's always a chance. Snake on the other hand seems quite unlikely if Sakurai isn't back to make the deal.

Smash 4 Base Villager ****** / ** Wii Fit Trainer *** / ***** (See notes) Rosalina & Luma *** / * Little Mac *** / * Greninja ** / * Mii Fighter ***** / *** Palutena ** / * Robin *** / * Shulk **** / *

We've got some interesting picks here. Villager is guaranteed to return, that one's easy. Mii Fighters allow for costume DLC so they're likely to stick around.

As for the rest… Rosalina & Luma are the most likely cuts from the crowded Mario franchise out of non-clones. But it is Mario, so maybe none? Greninja is in the same boat, and there's a ton of other Pokemon who could replace him.

Palutena is from a series that missed last gen, so she's in trouble. Little Mac missed two gens, but he's such a beginner friendly character he might be kept for that.

Robin has the saving grace of playing very uniquely among FE characters, and Awakening is still hugely influential. And XC DE + XC3 both made Shulk still quite relevant, so he's quite likely to stay no matter what the situation with XC reps.

And as for Wii Fit Trainer… I suspect either the character will be reimagined as Ring Fit Trainee or replaced with Dragaux… but most likely the former.

Smash 4 Unlockable / DLC Bowser Jr. *** / * Duck Hunt ** / * Corrin * / *

Corrin is from a much panned FE game, and there's way too many FE reps right now, and we'll likely get new ones. Bowser Jr. is in the same boat as Rosalina, while Duck Hunt is there with R.O.B.

Smash 4 Third Party / DLC Megaman ***** / * Pac-Man ***** / ** Ryu **** / * Cloud ** / * Bayonetta ****** / *

Since I have serious brain rot, here's a write up of the chances of each character for the next Smash.

Key:

* - Highly Unlikely ** - Unlikely *** - Toss up **** - Highly Likely ***** - Near Guarantee ****** - Guaranteed

Character Returning / Reworked

Original 8 Mario ****** / **** Donkey Kong ****** / *** Link ****** / *** Samus ****** / **** Yoshi ****** / ** Kirby ****** / * Fox ****** / *

The OG 8 is super easy. They're all the leading characters in their own franchises, we won't see cuts. Star Fox has gone the longest without an entry, but Fox is iconic to Smash itself. Mario is the most likely to get a rework, he's got plenty to pull from and a generic moveset. Link is likely to continue his evolution between games with a partial rework, and Samus absolutely needs one and has plenty to pull from.

Unlockable 4 Luigi ****** / **** Ness **** / *** Captain Falcon ***** / * Jigglypuff ** / *

Luigi is the only guarantee here. Captain Falcon is almost a guarantee, being the closest thing Smash has to it's own rep and completely iconic. Jigglypuff has almost been cut before, and if cuts happen is pretty low on the totem pole. Being an OG cast member only goes so far. Ness is similar to Captain Falcon, but Mother is actually dead (F-Zero did technically just get a new game last year). Still, he's not that likely to be cut.

Melee Base Peach ****** / **** Bowser ****** / ** Ice Climbers *** / * Zelda ****** / *** Sheik *** / **

Peach and Zelda are Nintendo's leading ladies, they're guaranteed to return, alongside Bowser as the premier villain. Sheik has been irrelevant for ages, and is highly likely to be replaced by a newer Zelda rep. But the character is also still very popular, so it could go either way. Ice Climbers is the retro rep that's probably most liked by the competitive community, giving them a fighting chance, but some retro reps will be inevitably cut.

Melee Unlockables Dr. Mario * / ** Pichu * / *** Falco *** / ** Marth ***** / * Young Link * / *** Ganondorf ****** / **** Mewtwo *** / ** Roy ** / * Mr. Game & Watch ** / ***

Pichu and Young Link are the top 2 characters most likely to be cut, hands down. Only an "Everyone is Here" is going to save them. Dr. Mario is likely cheap to make and can represent Mario's classic moveset, so he's got an outside chance, but we haven't had a Dr. Mario game the entire Switch gen.

Falco could be cut if we see heavy cuts, but he's popular enough to be pretty middle of the road, smae with Mewtwo. Roy on the other hand is pretty much out. Mr. Game & Watch's relevance as representing an entire generation of Nintendo games makes him a much more likely retro comeback than some others, but he could still be out.