Hot Mess Express

It’s here - the most overanalyzed skating competition of the year. I love that because it’s so early and we’re all so desperate for skating content teams that might not usually be on the radar get some attention.

First - the Browns aren’t on the list which is weird because they have been there the last few years and they just posted that they were in Lake Placid.

I’m excited to see Urban and Beaumont. At last year’s Nationals they were brand new, so it will be good to see how they have progressed and what their material for this year looks like.

I’m also looking forward to seeing Pham/Spiridov. I liked their programs last year and I’m hoping they’ve progressed during the off season.

It will be interesting to see how Neset/Markov are marked this year. Last year they were dropped like a stone by the judges. Really they should have progressed to the point they would be beating Pate/Bye (who’ve been plateaued for a while).

I predict the podium will be:

Pate/Bye

Neset Markelov

Urban/Beaumont

Though I’d be quite happy to be wrong.

I’m most surprised by the teams that aren’t there - It would have been a great transition competition for Layla & Alex. Where are the Peals? What about Bella & Linus? Nadiia & Noe?

I’m looking forward to seeing what people did with all the RD requirements. And new programs!

I love that the Browns always tell us that they will be at Lake Placid. The fact that the competition doesn’t announce the entries (or at least not until the last second) robs us of some of the anticipation.

You know what I love about this program reveal? Well, beyond the speed they already have, the lack of reheated choreography, the storytelling that’s already there, and the *gasp* new idea in ice dance? They are writing their own story this year.

No waiting around to hear how things go over at Champs Camp. No letting the narrative that they won’t be as ready for the season because they did Stars on Ice. No more waiting their turn. They want to be US champs and be back in the top 5 in the world.

I’m not entirely sure who Skate Canada sold its soul to that it went from 1 viable ice dance team to 5, but this ice dance, so anything is possible. Perhaps I’m just buying into the hype, but here are my predictions for Nationals:

1. Marjorie & Jean-Luc - both have such strong ice dance skills and they seem to be gelling well. They will have at least NHK under their belts by then. I predict big things. Also, loving and enjoying what you do tends to show.

2. Marie-Jade & Romain - I think Skate Canada will have their backs and keep them second as they need to send them to Worlds strong. If they have half the off season they had last year they will start the season strong.

3. Hannah & Zak - Yes, they have been doing fun TikTok’s, but Zak has been burning bridges during the last quad, giving surly interviews and blowing CBC fluff pieces. Hannah has presence and great lift positions, but she sometimes struggles with footwork and patterns. I think this team will need the year to gel.

4. Alicia & Marko - This one feels like a risk. They looked good in their media day and I like their quality of movement together. Will her skating skills get stronger? His?

5. Layla & Alex - I’m hoping for a very strong start from them. The transition to senior is tough and there’s a lot of pressure on their shoulders.

6. Nadiia & Noe - Another risk. I really liked them last year and thought they needed time to gel. I’m also hoping the time at IAMO will have helped his skating skills.

7. Sandrine & Paul - This pairing baffles me. Their skating didn’t look that convincing in their media day. Bothe if them need work on their basic skills.

8. Amanda & Peter - If they are improving they should be making sure their social media posts reflect that. Right now every video makes it look like they paired up last week and are still working on basic stroking.

So fun to see the new Canadian ice dance teams. Can so many former partners who seem bitter about either their previous partnerships or how the partnership fell apart work side by side every day with no friction?? However they do it, they put on a happy face today.

Watching the video clips from today and having seen most of the skaters with previous partnerships, here’s where I think things will shake out.

Bakerie/Marjorie & Jean-Luc - Both are very talented skaters and as long as their lifts and other partnering elements work, they should shoot to the top of the Canadian podium. Their video highlighted footwork and chemistry.

LiLak/LiLa/Hannah & Zak - The biggest shock is Zak looking happy. Was he really that miserable in his partnership or does he know a happier demeanour is essential to success? The twizzles in their video are impressive for being so close so soon in the partnership. While Hannah has undeniable star power, but she has weaker footwork. If she improves that they will do well, but if she doesn’t I think this team has a lower ceiling.

Sandrine & Paul - I wonder who else Paul tried out with as I was surprised that he chose Sandrine. Both of them should be working on their basic skating skills. I don’t think it was their previous partnerships were what was holding them back.

Alicia & Mario - I know little about Marko, but Alicia also needs to work on basic skating skills. I hope this partnership works better for her.

The Grand Prix assignments have dropped (ice dance is the last slide). Shocked CPom are at the first event and that Lajoie/Baker weren’t assigned Skate Canada.