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It’s not over yet! May 11/12 aurora watch continues

It was a good night for aurora watchers all over Europe on the evening of May 10th/11th, 2024. Here's a great brief timelapse video sequence from Berkshire in the UK (via @Rainmaker1973 over at the Bye Bye Birdie place).

Among numerous other displays, this particular broad, pink "banner" structure was widely observed across the UK and Ireland around midnight local time / 2300 UT. It persisted, twisting and morphing into a variety of new shapes, for something like half an hour. The night's display as a whole was definitely one for the record books.

The early projections at the NOAA site suggest that the power of the incoming geomagnetic storm will be significantly less on Sunday, May 12th. But the night of May 11th still holds possibilities, as for the time being the storm seems to be holding at the relatively high Kp 8 level (on a scale of 0-9).

NOAA space weather forecasters have observed at least seven coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from the sun, with impacts expected to arrive on E

NOAA space weather forecasters have observed at least seven coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from the sun, with impacts expected to arrive on Earth as early as midday Friday, May 10, and persist through Sunday, May 12, 2024.

Here are the early graphic projections for the zone of visibility on the evening of May 11 2024. Please note that (a) these are approximations and estimates, not hard and fast indicators of where the solar wind makes planetfall; and (b) as they did last night, they may well improve over the course of the day as newer and better data reaches the predicting devices and personnel.

The European animated projection comes via ITV (UK) weatherman Chris Page.

North American prediction images come via the Space Weather Prediction Center at the NOAA website. Right now (9:30 PM IDT / 2139 UT on May 11th) the NOAA's evening prediction animation for Europe and North America hasn't been generated yet. This still image (updated 1900 IDT) shows where the auroral viewing zone stands right now. The "likelihood of viewing" for Europe seems to have dropped pretty much into the 30-40% range.

That said, though, it's worth noting that the NOAA earlier issued yet another geomagnetic storm watch warning for 12 May, as the Sun apparently popped off both X-class and M-class flares early today; the effects of those are now in transit toward Earth. So we'll see in a day or so what comes of that. Sunspot region 3664, which has been responsible for all this excitement, is plainly not done spitting out flares just yet.

As regards tonight's predictions, it also remains to be seen whether what we get will be better... considering that last night's displays far outpaced everybody's expectations. I for one am quite willing to be surprised. 🙏

It's also worth noting here that so far today, the Kp index illustrated at the Space Weather Prediction Center's experimental aurora dashboard page—an indicator of the current strength of the geomagnetic storm—hasn't dropped off very much from last night's highs. It'll be interesting to see how this behaves as the day goes on. (ETA 2: image updated 11/05/2024, 2140 IDT)

Other useful resources for those interested in space weather generally, and solar weather:

NASA's SOHO (Solar and Heliospheric Observatory) satellite's "The Sun Now" page

ESA Space Weather Service Network

NOAA (US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) Space Weather and Prediction Page

OVATION auroral prediction model from the DSCOVR spacecraft, via SpaceWeatherLive

AuroraWatch UK

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Listen to this episode from Cocktails & Capitalism on Spotify. Continuing the story of Palestine, Leeh outlines the Great Arab Revolt and th

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