I haven't seen this being talked about much but when faced with other people, Joel is so determined to prove that he's been able to be a good protector, provider, and father figure for Ellie, no matter what he says otherwise.
Like, everything he does, whether it's making sure Ellie never has to use her gun, never has to take watch at night, never has to see him kill a kid, all of it is him trying his best to do what he believes any good father does.
And here, he looks so dejected when Ellie tells Tommy they have been doing worse. He's been trying his best doing a decent enough job of being Ellie's guardian and then hearing her say that confirmed his fears, that he is failing her.
I'm just now realizing how episode 6 is just a long barrage of Joel's failures being thrown back at him again and again: getting lost in the forest and needing to ask for directions, waking up to Ellie guarding him because he fell asleep in the middle of his watch, helplessly fearing for Ellie's life as a dog sniffs her for infection, Tommy living a life he could never have given him, Tommy becoming a father, Tommy asking about Tess, Joel seeing a woman and mistaking her for Sarah, realizing he could have been a grandfather by now (he looked so hopeful for one second during that scene, it's heartbreaking).
And it all culminates when he finally gets to admit it out loud to Tommy. He's been failing her again and again. And when he says her it isn't just Ellie, it's Tess and Sarah too. He can't bear to think about the consequences if he failed again. Which is why his emotions break the surface when he begs Tommy to take Ellie to the fireflies. Because at least Tommy is still able, Tommy is still young, Tommy hasn't failed anyone yet. Unlike him.
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