PonoTrading

Market Pulse for Tuesday, June 2, 2026: JOLTS leads the morning calendar, Nasdaq leadership faces daily expected-move levels, crude oil remains the macro switch, and gamma flip lines frame today’s regime risk.

Quick read: JOLTS is the morning catalyst, Nasdaq leadership is still the cleanest bullish input, and crude remains the macro switch.

Read the full Market Pulse

AI PCs Kick Off June as Oil Jumps Into Jobs Week - Market Pulse for Monday, June 1, 2026

> U.S. index futures are modestly green to start June, but the macro tone is not “easy mode.” Crude is back on the front page, yields are grinding higher, and the week builds into ISM/JOLTS/ADP and Jobs Friday. Today’s edge is treating oil + rates as the risk filter, and treating AI leadership as the upside engine. ---

What You Need To Know Right Now

Here’s the premarket map in plain English: | Theme | What’s happening | Why it matters | |---|---|---| | Index futures | ES is modestly higher (S&P 500 futures around 7,608) | Bulls still have control, but today is about *acceptance* more than a headline pop. | | Oil | WTI and Brent are +~3% premarket | Higher oil = higher inflation anxiety = tighter financial conditions (especially for growth). | | Rates | Yields are edging up across the curve | Rising yields can cap multiple expansion and punish crowded leadership if it stumbles. | | Dollar | DXY is ~99 | A firmer dollar can tighten the noose on risk appetite and commodities. | | Volatility | Equity vol remains contained, oil vol remains the wildcard | When oil is the story, OVX matters more than VIX. | | Calendar | ISM Manufacturing at 10:00am ET | One number can reprice “soft landing vs. sticky inflation” and swing yields. | The setup is constructive, but not careless.

Prior Session

Friday closed May with the tape still in “record-high behavior.” That matters because the market is not entering June from a weak base. But the handoff into a new month also changes the game: - Month-end flows are gone. - A heavier macro calendar shows up immediately. - Energy headlines are back in control of intraday inflation expectations. If the market is going to extend higher, it needs to do it while oil is rising and yields are firming - not after those pressures fade.

Overnight Markets

Overnight price action looks like a classic split-screen macro: - Asia leaned risk-on in pockets (notably semis/memory), but the overall catalyst is still U.S. tech leadership. - Europe is mixed, with energy and some tech support but broader “wait and see” positioning. - Oil is the loudest cross-asset move. If you trade index futures, the question isn’t whether the market can open green. The question is whether it can *hold* green once the bond market and oil market start doing their thing during U.S. hours.

US Futures Snapshot

**S&P 500 futures (ES)** are up modestly premarket (around 7,608, with an early range roughly 7,606–7,623). **Nasdaq futures (NQ)** are also higher, but the story is leadership quality, not the index print. **Russell 2000 futures (RTY)** are hovering near flat to slightly red around 2,923 - the “breadth check” remains the same: small caps need to participate if this rally is going to broaden.

The AI Catalyst (What’s Actually New)

Nvidia and Microsoft are back in the driver’s seat after unveiling a new push to bring AI capabilities directly into PCs (laptops/desktops). That is not just “AI hype” - it is an attempt to widen the TAM beyond data centers and keep the refresh-cycle narrative alive. Important nuance: **the semi reaction is mixed**. When the leader is up but other major chip names are down, the market is telling you to watch *concentration risk*.

Oil, Rates, Dollar

Oil is the immediate pressure point. - **WTI** is around **$90** (+~3%) - **Brent** is around **$93–94** (+~3%) That matters because oil strength can bleed into: 1) inflation expectations 2) yields 3) the Fed path 4) consumer sensitivity Rates are also leaning the wrong direction for complacency: - **2Y** roughly **4.03%** - **10Y** roughly **4.47%** - **30Y** roughly **4.99%** And the dollar index is holding near **99**. This is the filter: - If oil + yields keep climbing, upside needs to be “earned” (acceptance and rotation), not just chased. - If oil cools or yields stall, the market can sprint again.

Volatility Snapshot (VIX / VXN / OVX)

As of the last close: - **VIX:** ~15.8 - **VXN (Nasdaq vol):** ~22.6 - **OVX (oil vol):** ~57.8 Equity vol is not screaming “crash.” But **OVX staying elevated** is the reminder: when crude is moving, your risk isn’t only the index level - it’s the speed of repricing.

Expected Move Levels

These are the PonoTrading expected move levels generated for Monday, June 1, 2026. Daily, weekly, and monthly levels are fixed from the 2026-05-29 close. The important read is simple: ES and NQ are still in bullish structure, but the Q2 stretch means fresh longs need clean acceptance, not chase entries.

Market Volatility Snapshot

**VIX:** 15.91% | **VXN:** 22.58% | **GVZ:** 24.91% | **OVX:** 57.84% Compressed equity volatility keeps the grind alive, but OVX near 58 means oil can still force fast repricing.

Daily Expected Moves

Anchor: Daily levels are calculated from the 2026-05-29 close and held fixed for the 2026-06-01 period. | Product | Price | Vol Used | 1SD Range | 2SD Range | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:| | **ES** S&P 500 E-mini | 7,595.75 | VIX 15.32% | 7,490.25 - 7,701.25 (+/-105.50) | 7,384.75 - 7,806.75 | | **NQ** Nasdaq 100 E-mini | 30,405.25 | VXN 22.58% | 29,782.83 - 31,027.67 (+/-622.42) | 29,160.40 - 31,650.10 | | **YM** Dow E-mini | 51,077 | VIX 15.32% | 50,368 - 51,786 (+/-709) | 49,658 - 52,496 | | **RTY** Russell 2000 E-mini | 2,924.30 | VIX 15.32% | 2,883.68 - 2,964.92 (+/-40.62) | 2,843.07 - 3,005.53 | | **GC** Gold futures | 4,560.50 | GVZ 24.91% | 4,457.51 - 4,663.49 (+/-102.99) | 4,354.52 - 4,766.48 | | **CL** Crude oil futures | 87.36 | OVX 57.84% | 82.78 - 91.94 (+/-4.58) | 78.20 - 96.52 | #### Daily Alerts

Weekly Expected Moves

Anchor: Weekly levels are calculated from the 2026-05-29 close and held fixed for the 2026-W23 period. | Product | Price | Vol Used | 1SD Range | 2SD Range | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:| | **ES** S&P 500 E-mini | 7,595.75 | VIX 15.32% | 7,434.60 - 7,756.90 (+/-161.15) | 7,273.45 - 7,918.05 | | **NQ** Nasdaq 100 E-mini | 30,405.25 | VXN 22.58% | 29,454.48 - 31,356.02 (+/-950.77) | 28,503.71 - 32,306.79 | | **YM** Dow E-mini | 51,077 | VIX 15.32% | 49,993 - 52,161 (+/-1,084) | 48,910 - 53,244 | | **RTY** Russell 2000 E-mini | 2,924.30 | VIX 15.32% | 2,862.26 - 2,986.34 (+/-62.04) | 2,800.22 - 3,048.38 | | **GC** Gold futures | 4,560.50 | GVZ 24.91% | 4,403.18 - 4,717.82 (+/-157.32) | 4,245.86 - 4,875.14 | | **CL** Crude oil futures | 87.36 | OVX 57.84% | 80.36 - 94.36 (+/-7.00) | 73.36 - 101.36 | #### Weekly Alerts

Monthly Expected Moves

Anchor: Monthly levels are calculated from the 2026-05-29 close and held fixed for the 2026-06 period. | Product | Price | Vol Used | 1SD Range | 2SD Range | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:| | **ES** S&P 500 E-mini | 7,595.75 | VIX 15.32% | 7,251.20 - 7,940.30 (+/-344.55) | 6,906.64 - 8,284.86 | | **NQ** Nasdaq 100 E-mini | 30,405.25 | VXN 22.58% | 28,372.42 - 32,438.08 (+/-2,032.83) | 26,339.59 - 34,470.91 | | **YM** Dow E-mini | 51,077 | VIX 15.32% | 48,760 - 53,394 (+/-2,317) | 46,443 - 55,711 | | **RTY** Russell 2000 E-mini | 2,924.30 | VIX 15.32% | 2,791.65 - 3,056.95 (+/-132.65) | 2,659.00 - 3,189.60 | | **GC** Gold futures | 4,560.50 | GVZ 24.91% | 4,224.13 - 4,896.87 (+/-336.37) | 3,887.76 - 5,233.24 | | **CL** Crude oil futures | 87.36 | OVX 57.84% | 72.40 - 102.32 (+/-14.96) | 57.44 - 117.28 | #### Monthly Alerts

Higher-Timeframe Alerts

- **ES:** Quarterly expected move above +1SD reached. Current price 7,588.75 versus saved Q2 map: 5,742.33 - 7,399.17 1SD and 4,913.91 - 8,227.59 2SD. - **NQ:** Quarterly expected move above +1SD reached. Current price 30,344.75 versus saved Q2 map: 20,542.83 - 27,287.17 1SD and 17,170.66 - 30,659.34 2SD. - **RTY:** Quarterly expected move above +1SD reached. Current price 2,905.00 versus saved Q2 map: 2,195.47 - 2,828.93 1SD and 1,878.74 - 3,145.66 2SD.

Gamma Flip Lines

Latest available PonoTrading gamma map: | Symbol | Price Area | Gamma Flip | Current Read | |---|---:|---:|---| | SPY | 708.00 | 708.00 | Sitting directly on the flip | | QQQ | 646.30 | 646.00 | Positive gamma above the flip | | SPX | 7,102.95 | 7,105.00 | Just below the flip | | NDX | 26,569 | 26,570 | Just below the flip | | IWM | 276.55 | 277.00 | Just below the flip | | NVDA | 200.07 | 200.00 | Positive gamma above the flip | | MSFT | 418.94 | 420.00 | Below the flip | | AAPL | 272.93 | 272.50 | Positive gamma above the flip | | AMZN | 247.71 | 247.50 | Positive gamma above the flip | | TSLA | 392.71 | 392.50 | Positive gamma above the flip | | DIA | 493.45 | 479.43 | Positive gamma above the flip | | XLF | 52.52 | 50.90 | Positive gamma above the flip | | RUT | 2,786 | 2,785 | Positive gamma above the flip | The practical read: QQQ and several large-cap leaders are still on the constructive side of their flips, but SPX/NDX/IWM are close enough to their flip lines that a small sell impulse can change the hedging environment quickly. If oil keeps pressure on yields and those index flips fail, intraday volatility can expand faster than VIX alone suggests.

Economic Calendar (ET)

Monday’s key events: - **10:00am:** ISM Manufacturing PMI (May) - **10:00am:** Construction Spending (April) Then the week stacks: - **Tue:** JOLTS - **Wed:** ADP, ISM Services, Beige Book - **Thu:** Jobless Claims - **Fri:** Nonfarm Payrolls In a jobs week, the market can drift early and then get violent later. Respect that rhythm.

Earnings Watch

Two prints matter for the AI narrative this week: - **Palo Alto Networks (PANW):** Tuesday, **June 2**, after the close - **Broadcom (AVGO):** Wednesday, **June 3**, after the close PANW can swing the “AI spend is real vs. slowing” story in software/security. AVGO is a heavyweight for the “custom silicon + AI infrastructure” narrative. If Broadcom guides strong, it supports the semi complex. If it disappoints, it can pressure NQ quickly.

The Plan

This is the practical plan for today:

Bullish Path

Bulls want: - oil strength to stay **contained** (no vertical repricing) - yields to stop grinding higher intraday - AI leadership to stay bid without the rest of semis collapsing If that happens, the market can keep pushing record territory.

Bearish / Risk-Off Path

Bears need: - oil continues to climb and pulls yields higher - the dollar firms and risk appetite fades - AI leadership cracks (or becomes too narrow) If that happens, the more likely day is chop-to-down and “wait for ISM/JOLTS/ADP/NFP” positioning.

Bottom Line

The tape is bullish, but the macro filter is tightening. If crude stays hot and yields keep rising, the market needs breadth and rotation - not just one more squeeze in a couple mega-cap names. Trade the levels. Respect oil. Let the calendar do its work. Not financial advice. Trade your plan.

Read the full Market Pulse on PonoTrading

Market Pulse for Thursday, May 28, 2026: GDP was revised lower, PCE remains sticky, NQ is still stretched, oil stays heavy, and ES/NQ/RTY are testing key expected-move decision zones.

Quick read: GDP was revised lower, PCE is still sticky, Nasdaq remains stretched, and ES/NQ/RTY are testing expected-move decision zones.

Read the full Market Pulse

Market Pulse for Wednesday, May 27, 2026: Nasdaq leadership remains strong but stretched, crude oil is flushing lower, VIX is contained, and ES/NQ/RTY are testing key expected-move and gamma flip decision zones.

Quick read: Nasdaq leadership is still strong, crude oil is flushing lower, and ES/NQ/RTY are testing stretched expected-move decision zones.

Read the full Market Pulse

Market Pulse for Tuesday, May 26, 2026: record-high futures face the first full cash-session confirmation after Memorial Day as ES/NQ/RTY press stretched expected-move levels, VIX stays contained, and crude oil remains the macro switch.

Quick read: Futures are near record territory after Memorial Day, breadth is participating, and crude oil is the macro switch as the full cash session returns.

Read the full Market Pulse

> U.S. cash equities are closed for Memorial Day, but futures traders still have a real tape to respect. Equity index futures pushed into fresh all-time-high territory in a shortened holiday session while crude oil dropped hard on geopolitical relief. That is bullish, but the confirmation still comes Tuesday when cash volume returns.

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What You Need To Know Right Now

This is not a normal Monday.

U.S. stock markets are closed for Memorial Day, but CME equity index futures opened Sunday evening on the Tuesday trade date. The futures session is abbreviated, with an early midday halt and a normal Sunday-style reopen tonight.

The headline is not that nothing is happening because it is a holiday. The headline is that equity index futures are pressing fresh all-time highs anyway.

That is a meaningful risk-on signal. Buyers are not waiting for perfect liquidity. They are responding to oil relief, global risk appetite, and the same momentum structure that carried the market into the long weekend.

The caution is also obvious: holiday futures liquidity is not the same thing as a full cash-market breakout. Price can move cleanly in thin books, but the real question is whether Tuesday's cash session confirms the move with actual volume and breadth.

The simple read:

| Theme | Signal | Trader Read | |---|---|---| | Equity futures | Fresh all-time highs | Buyers are still pressing risk. | | Oil | Sharply lower | Inflation/geopolitical pressure is cooling. | | Cash equities | Closed for Memorial Day | Confirmation waits until Tuesday. | | Liquidity | Abbreviated holiday session | Respect thinner books and faster reversals. | | Volatility | VIX/equity vol contained, oil vol still important | Do not ignore crude just because equities are bid. |

Today is bullish, but it is not a day to get sloppy.

Prior Session

Friday already told us buyers were still in control.

The market went into the long weekend with a constructive tone. The Dow finished at a fresh all-time closing high, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also stayed firm. That gave bulls a strong base before the Sunday evening futures reopen.

The important part is what did not happen over the weekend. We did not get a risk-off gap. We did not get a panic bid in VIX or broader equity volatility. We did not get a crude-driven pressure wave hitting index futures.

Instead, futures reopened and buyers pressed.

That matters because long weekends can create hedging demand. Traders often reduce exposure ahead of headline risk, especially when geopolitical headlines and oil are already moving. When the market comes back from that setup and still pushes record highs, it tells us the dip-buying impulse remains alive.

The prior-session lesson is simple: bulls kept control into the holiday, and the weekend did not break that control.

Overnight Markets

Overnight and holiday trade leaned clearly risk-on.

Equity index futures moved higher, with the major index futures pressing fresh record territory. Nasdaq leadership stayed strong, S&P futures remained bid, and Dow futures continued to participate. That combination matters because this is not only a narrow tech-only read.

Oil is the big macro change.

Crude dropped sharply after reports that U.S.-Iran talks were progressing toward a potential deal that could reduce the geopolitical premium in energy markets and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. That is the pressure valve for equities.

When oil falls, the market can relax around several connected risks:

| Oil Relief Channel | Why It Matters For Equities | |---|---| | Inflation expectations | Lower crude reduces the fear of a fresh inflation impulse. | | Treasury yields | Less inflation pressure can help yields stop pushing against growth stocks. | | Consumer pressure | Lower energy reduces stress on spending and sentiment. | | Corporate margins | Lower input costs help risk appetite. | | Fed path | Less oil pressure makes the market less worried about policy staying tight. |

That does not mean the oil risk is gone. It means the market is pricing relief right now.

If talks progress and crude stays heavy, equities can keep breathing. If headlines reverse and oil snaps back, the same geopolitical channel can pressure the tape again quickly.

US Futures

ES

ES is the cleanest broad-market read today.

The latest expected-move reference map has ES daily 1SD at 7,383.73 to 7,519.77 and weekly 1SD at 7,242.56 to 7,621.94.

With futures pressing fresh highs, the immediate question is whether ES is accepting above the daily upper band near 7,519.77. If it is, the next major planning area becomes the weekly upper band near 7,621.94.

That does not mean chase every green candle. It means buyers have earned the right to be respected above the daily upper edge.

Bulls want ES to hold above 7,519.77 and use pullbacks into that area as support. Bears need a failed breakout back under 7,519.77, then a loss of the prior anchor area near 7,451.75, to argue that the holiday high was a liquidity-driven overshoot.

NQ

NQ remains the leadership product.

The daily 1SD range is 29,025.75 to 29,755.25, and the weekly 1SD range is 28,206.35 to 30,257.15.

Nasdaq strength at all-time highs tells us the AI and mega-cap leadership trade is still intact. But NQ is also the product most likely to punish sloppy late longs because it can move fast when liquidity is thin.

The key line is 29,755.25. Above that, NQ is accepting beyond the daily expected move and can target the weekly upper band near 30,257.15. Below it, the market may still be bullish, but it is back inside the expected-move field and more vulnerable to two-way auction.

The bull case is acceptance above 29,755.25. The caution line is a failed reclaim of that level after Tuesday's cash reopen.

YM

Dow strength matters because it confirms the rally is not only Nasdaq momentum.

The daily 1SD range is 49,637 to 50,551, with weekly 1SD at 48,351 to 50,883.

YM pressing the upper side of its map is constructive. If Dow futures hold above 50,551, the next upside planning area is 50,883. If YM rejects that upper weekly area while NQ continues higher, we could see a narrower leadership tape rather than full-market confirmation.

For now, participation from YM helps the bull case.

RTY

RTY is the breadth check.

The daily 1SD range is 2,795.25 to 2,846.75, with weekly 1SD at 2,728.15 to 2,871.05.

Small caps do not need to lead for the market to go up, but they do need to avoid breaking down if bulls want the move to feel healthier. If RTY holds above 2,846.75 and pushes toward 2,871.05, breadth is confirming the risk-on tone.

If RTY lags or falls back below 2,846.75 while ES and NQ stay bid, the move is still bullish, but it becomes more dependent on large-cap leadership.

CL

Crude is the macro switch.

The latest daily 1SD range for CL is 94.52 to 102.00, with weekly 1SD at 94.86 to 115.98.

Oil falling toward or below 94.52 is equity-friendly because it shows the geopolitical premium is coming out. That keeps inflation pressure quieter and gives growth multiples room to breathe.

If CL stays below 94.52, the market can treat oil as a tailwind for risk. If CL reclaims 98.26 and then 102.00, oil pressure comes back into the conversation.

This is the biggest non-index chart to keep on screen today.

Expected Move Map

The expected-move map is the playing field, not a prediction. Because U.S. cash equities are closed today, these are the latest local PonoTrading reference levels from the most recent expected-move snapshot, used as the holiday-session tactical map.

| Product | Daily 1SD | Daily 2SD | Weekly 1SD | Weekly 2SD | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:| | ES | 7,383.73 - 7,519.77 | 7,315.70 - 7,587.80 | 7,242.56 - 7,621.94 | 7,052.87 - 7,811.63 | | NQ | 29,025.75 - 29,755.25 | 28,661.01 - 30,119.99 | 28,206.35 - 30,257.15 | 27,180.95 - 31,282.55 | | YM | 49,637 - 50,551 | 49,179 - 51,009 | 48,351 - 50,883 | 47,084 - 52,150 | | RTY | 2,795.25 - 2,846.75 | 2,769.50 - 2,872.50 | 2,728.15 - 2,871.05 | 2,656.69 - 2,942.51 | | GC | 4,471.60 - 4,591.00 | 4,411.90 - 4,650.70 | 4,389.62 - 4,721.98 | 4,223.44 - 4,888.16 | | CL | 94.52 - 102.00 | 90.77 - 105.75 | 94.86 - 115.98 | 84.30 - 126.54 |

The important higher-timeframe alerts remain concentrated in equities:

| Product | Alert | Why It Matters | |---|---|---| | ES | Quarterly +1SD has already been reached | Trend remains strong, but price is extended on the Q2 map. | | NQ | Quarterly +1SD has already been reached | Nasdaq leadership is powerful, but not cheap. | | NQ | Weekly upper band near 30,257 | This becomes the next major upside planning zone if daily +1SD holds. | | RTY | Weekly upper band near 2,871 | Breadth confirmation level. | | CL | Daily lower band near 94.52 | Oil relief line for the equity bull case. |

The clean read: equities are trying to accept above the upper daily bands while crude is trying to break lower. That is a bullish cross-asset combination as long as Tuesday confirms it.

Gamma Flip Lines

The latest published PonoTrading gamma map had several major products sitting near their flip lines. That matters because markets near gamma flips can change character quickly.

| Symbol | Spot at Scan | Gamma Flip | Regime at Scan | |---|---:|---:|---| | SPY | $708.00 | $708.00 | Positive, directly on flip | | QQQ | $646.30 | $646.00 | Positive | | SPX | 7,102.95 | 7,105.00 | Negative, directly under flip | | NDX | 26,569 | 26,570 | Negative, directly under flip | | IWM | $276.55 | $277.00 | Negative | | NVDA | $200.07 | $200.00 | Positive | | MSFT | $418.94 | $420.00 | Negative | | AAPL | $272.93 | $272.50 | Positive | | AMZN | $247.71 | $247.50 | Positive | | TSLA | $392.71 | $392.50 | Positive | | DIA | $493.45 | $479.43 | Positive | | XLF | $52.52 | $50.90 | Positive | | RUT | 2,786 | 2,785 | Positive |

The key takeaway is not to treat a gamma flip as hard support or resistance. Treat it as a regime line.

Above the flip, dealer hedging is more likely to dampen movement and support cleaner mean reversion. Below the flip, dealer hedging is more likely to amplify movement and make the tape feel faster.

With equity futures pressing fresh highs, the market is trying to operate in the more supportive side of that structure. But because cash equities are closed today, Tuesday's open will matter more than usual.

Market-Moving Headlines

The headline stack is clean today.

First, equity index futures are pressing fresh all-time highs despite the holiday. That is the strongest signal on the board. Thin liquidity or not, buyers are showing up.

Second, crude oil is falling sharply on geopolitical relief. The market is pricing a lower probability of sustained energy disruption, which helps inflation expectations and risk appetite.

Third, the holiday schedule matters. Cash equities are closed, futures halt early, and normal cash-market confirmation waits until Tuesday.

Fourth, this week is still loaded. A quiet cash-market holiday does not mean a quiet week. Traders still have consumer confidence, housing data, durable goods, jobless claims, GDP, personal income, spending, and PCE inflation ahead.

Economic Calendar

Today is light because of Memorial Day, but the rest of the week is not.

| Day | Event | Why Traders Care | |---|---|---| | Monday | Memorial Day holiday, cash equities closed | Futures liquidity is thinner and the session is abbreviated. | | Tuesday | Consumer confidence and housing data | First full cash-market confirmation after the holiday. | | Thursday | Jobless claims, durable goods, housing data, GDP update | Rates and growth expectations can move. | | Friday | Personal income, spending, PCE inflation, core PCE | The main macro test of the week. |

Friday's PCE data is the big one because oil, inflation, yields, and Fed expectations are all connected right now.

If oil keeps falling and inflation data cooperates, the bull case gets cleaner. If PCE is sticky or oil snaps back, the market may need to digest the record-high push.

Earnings On Deck

The earnings calendar is lighter than last week's Nvidia-centered setup, but earnings still matter for leadership and breadth.

The market has already absorbed the major AI leadership catalyst from Nvidia. Now the question is whether that leadership can stay broad enough to support index highs while macro data comes in.

The earnings read this week is less about one single company and more about whether the AI, consumer, and rate-sensitive parts of the market can all keep participating.

For traders, the key is simple: if mega-cap tech remains bid while small caps and cyclicals join, the breakout has better quality. If the market is only being carried by a narrow group, the highs can still hold, but the tape becomes more vulnerable to sharp rotations.

The Plan

Bull Case

The bull case is record-high futures plus oil relief.

ES needs to hold above 7,519.77 and work toward 7,621.94. NQ needs to hold above 29,755.25 and work toward 30,257.15. YM holding above 50,551 and RTY holding above 2,846.75 would strengthen the breadth read.

Crude staying below 94.52 is the cleanest macro tailwind.

If those conditions line up, Tuesday can confirm the holiday breakout instead of rejecting it.

Bear Case

The bear case is failed holiday acceptance.

If ES loses 7,519.77 and cannot reclaim it, the market may have simply overshot in thin liquidity. If NQ loses 29,755.25 after cash equities reopen, Nasdaq may need to digest before pressing the weekly upper band.

The bear case gets stronger if CL reclaims 98.26 and then 102.00, because that would tell us the oil relief trade is fading.

This is not a bearish setup yet. It is a confirmation test.

Best Trade Location

| Setup | Trigger | First Planning Target | Risk Read | |---|---|---:|---| | ES continuation | Holds above 7,519.77 | 7,621.94 | Best if oil stays heavy. | | ES failed high | Rejects 7,519.77 and re-enters range | 7,451.75 then 7,383.73 | Watch Tuesday cash confirmation. | | NQ continuation | Holds above 29,755.25 | 30,257.15 | Leadership squeeze remains active. | | NQ failed leadership | Rejects 29,755.25 | 29,390.50 then 29,025.75 | Stronger if semis fade. | | RTY breadth confirmation | Holds above 2,846.75 | 2,871.05 | Broadens the rally. | | CL oil relief | Accepts below 94.52 | 90.77 | Equity-friendly macro tailwind. | | CL pressure returns | Reclaims 98.26, then 102.00 | 105.75 | Inflation/geopolitical risk returns. |

Bottom Line

Monday's Market Pulse is bullish, but the holiday structure matters.

Equity index futures are pressing fresh all-time highs. Oil is dropping sharply. Global risk appetite is improving. That is a powerful combination for bulls.

But cash equities are closed, futures halt early, and holiday liquidity can exaggerate movement. The real confirmation comes Tuesday when the full market reopens.

For ES, the key upside line is 7,519.77, then 7,621.94. For NQ, it is 29,755.25, then 30,257.15. For CL, the key equity-friendly relief line is 94.52.

If equities hold highs while oil stays heavy, the rally has room. If Tuesday rejects the holiday breakout or oil snaps back, the market may need to digest before pressing higher again.

Trade the reaction. Respect the holiday tape. Let Tuesday confirm whether today's record-high futures are the start of the next leg or just a thin-session overshoot.

Read the full Market Pulse on PonoTrading

# Futures Grind Higher Into Memorial Day Weekend, But Oil Headlines Still Own the Wheel - Market Pulse for Friday, May 22, 2026

> U.S. index futures are leaning higher into the open, but the session is still being priced through one lens: crude oil and Strait of Hormuz headlines. With a long weekend ahead (U.S. equity markets closed Monday), the best trades today will usually come from confirmation — not chasing the first green candle.

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## What You Need To Know Right Now

There are two competing forces setting up Friday:

1) **Risk wants to stay on.** The prior session kept equities supported, and overnight trade has futures green.

2) **Energy is still the macro throttle.** Oil remains elevated and volatile, and that volatility continues to bleed into inflation expectations, rate sensitivity, and risk appetite.

If oil stays contained, the tape has room to drift higher into the weekend. If oil rips, the market can flip fast.

---

## The Overnight Snapshot

### Index futures

Overnight trade has index futures higher, with June contracts showing a modest risk-on bias.

- **ES (June)**: ~7,493 - **NQ (June)**: ~29,631 - **YM (June)**: ~50,540 - **RTY (June)**: ~2,858

### Energy

Crude remains the key driver.

- **Brent**: roughly **$104–$106** - **WTI**: roughly **$97–$99**

### Volatility

Equity vol has cooled, but oil vol remains elevated.

- **VIX (May 21 close)**: **16.76** - **VXN (May 21 close)**: **22.74** - **OVX (May 21 close)**: **73.54**

### Rates + Dollar

Rates and the dollar are steady enough to let equities breathe — as long as oil cooperates.

- **U.S. 10Y**: ~**4.56%** - **U.S. 2Y**: ~**4.08%** - **DXY**: ~**99.2**

---

## Prior Session - What Thursday Told Us

Thursday kept the uptrend intact, but the day’s leadership matters.

- The **Dow** finished higher and held at record territory. - The **S&P 500** and **Nasdaq** were also green, but not in a “melt-up” way.

Single-stock action highlighted the market’s current personality:

- **Quantum exposure caught a bid** after the U.S. government announced a major quantum investment push tied to CHIPS Act incentives, helping drive a large move in IBM. - **Nvidia delivered strong results and guidance**, but the stock still traded lower on “great isn’t great enough” expectations. - **Walmart** weighed on consumer tape after a cautious outlook.

The take: the index can still grind, but the market is demanding *clean* beats and *clean* narratives — especially in mega-cap and consumer.

---

## Today’s Macro Calendar (ET)

The calendar is not packed, but it has two high-signal items.

- **10:00 AM** – Fed Governor **Waller** (Economic Outlook) - **10:00 AM** – **University of Michigan** sentiment (final)

Secondary items:

- **10:00 AM** – Conference Board leading/lagging/coincident indicators - **1:00 PM** – Baker Hughes rig count

---

## Expected Moves - Tactical Field

Below are the most recent PonoTrading expected-move references (generated Thursday morning, anchored to the prior close). Treat these as *context* — not prediction.

| Product | Current Ref. | Daily 1SD Range | Daily 2SD Range | |---|---:|---:|---:| | ES | 7,427.50 | 7,383.73 - 7,519.77 | 7,315.70 - 7,587.80 | | NQ | 29,244.25 | 29,025.75 - 29,755.25 | 28,661.01 - 30,119.99 | | YM | 49,965 | 49,637 - 50,551 | 49,179 - 51,009 | | RTY | 2,807.60 | 2,795.25 - 2,846.75 | 2,769.50 - 2,872.50 | | GC | 4,514.40 | 4,471.60 - 4,591.00 | 4,411.90 - 4,650.70 | | CL | 100.58 | 94.52 - 102.00 | 90.77 - 105.75 |

### How to use this today

- If **ES/NQ hold in the upper half of their daily 1SD bands**, the path of least resistance stays higher. - If price **fails back through the band midpoints** after Waller/UoM, expect chop and rotation. - If **crude pushes through its daily 1SD and holds**, assume tighter financial conditions and treat equity strength as fragile.

---

## The Plan

### ES

- **Bull case:** Oil contained + yields stable → grind higher, buy dips only after the market *proves* it can hold above key intraday pivots. - **Bear case:** Oil spikes or Waller surprises hawkish → rejection from the upper band and a rotation back toward the center of the range.

### NQ

- NQ has the cleanest trend, but it is also the quickest to punish sloppy entries. - If the tape stays risk-on, focus on **measured pullbacks** (not breakout-chasing) unless breadth confirms.

### CL (crude)

- If crude stays **range-bound**, equities can breathe. - If crude starts trending again, treat it as the “headline index” today — it will likely lead ES/NQ.

---

## Into the Long Weekend

U.S. equity markets are **closed on Monday, May 25 (Memorial Day)**.

That matters because Friday afternoon positioning can be driven by:

- weekend headline risk (especially oil/geopolitics) - reduced liquidity into the close - hedging flows ahead of a holiday gap

If you’re trading intraday, prioritize clarity over activity.

*Not financial advice.*

Market Pulse for Thursday, May 21, 2026: Nvidia delivered a strong AI print, but oil, yields, Walmart consumer caution, and stretched ES/NQ expected-move levels still need confirmation.

Quick read: Nvidia delivered strong AI numbers, but oil, yields, and stretched ES/NQ levels still need price confirmation.

Read the full Market Pulse

Market Pulse for Wednesday, May 20, 2026: U.S. futures rebound as oil cools, yields ease, VIX stays contained near 18, and Nvidia earnings after the close become the main AI leadership test.

Quick read: equities are getting a relief bid as oil cools, but Nvidia earnings after the close are the real test for AI leadership and NQ.

Read the full Market Pulse

Market Pulse for Tuesday, May 19, 2026: U.S. futures soften as chip stocks extend pressure before Nvidia earnings, oil eases, VIX stays contained near 18, and ES/NQ remain stretched above Q2 expected-move levels.

Quick read: chip leadership is under pressure before Nvidia earnings, oil is cooling, and ES/NQ are testing stretched expected-move structure.

Read the full Market Pulse

Market Pulse for Monday, May 18, 2026: U.S. futures firm as oil backs off overnight highs, VIX flattens near 18.4, and ES/NQ remain stretched against higher-timeframe expected-move zones.

Quick read: equities found a bid as oil cooled, but VIX/VXN and the expected-move map still deserve respect.

Read the full Market Pulse

Market Pulse for Friday, May 15, 2026.

The open is defensive, but not blindly bearish. Futures are under pressure because yields, oil, and inflation worries are hitting a tape that was already stretched. ES and NQ are below their daily lower expected-move bands, VIX is near 19, and RTY is testing the quarterly breadth line.

What matters today

ES: the key battlefield is 7,399 to 7,458. Hold and reclaim keeps the bull case alive. Lose it and digestion risk rises.

NQ: reclaim 29,314 or rallies stay suspect. Nasdaq is still above Q2 stretch, but under daily pressure.

RTY: small caps are the breadth tell near the 2,828.93 quarterly +1SD line.

CL: crude is inside its daily map, but above 104.82 it becomes an active inflation trigger again.

The read

This is a reclaim vs failed-reclaim session. A stretched market can sell hard, but it can also snap back violently when the first fear move fails. The job is not to trade the headline alone. The job is to watch whether price accepts below the daily bands or reclaims them after the open.

Read the full Market Pulse with the complete ES/NQ/RTY/CL expected-move map here:

https://ponotrading.com/blog/market-pulse-may-15-2026

Every trader has a setup that feels obvious after the candle closes.

The question is whether it survives testing:

Does it have clear entry conditions?

Can you define the failure point?

Does it work across multiple weeks, not one screenshot?

Does the result beat a random baseline?

A chart screenshot can feel productive, but it is not a trading plan.

The useful version asks:

What was the context before entry?

Where was the invalidation?

Was this a repeatable setup or just a nice-looking result?

Would I take the same trade again with size?

The best Monday prep is not predicting one perfect move.

It is building a map before the open:

expected move and volatility budget

prior week highs/lows

overnight context

gap-fill locations

levels where the trade idea is wrong

The tape still has risk-on structure, but it is no longer early. ES, NQ, and RTY are all pressing beyond their quarterly +1SD expected-move maps while crude volatility keeps the macro risk switch active. The job today is not to guess the headline. The job is to read acceptance, rejection, and the quality of the next pullback.

What You Need To Know Right Now

Monday opens with two forces fighting for control of the tape.

The first force is still bullish. Friday's jobs data helped confirm that the labor market cooled without breaking, large-cap technology remains the leadership engine, and the index trend has not meaningfully rejected the record-high zone. That keeps dip buyers interested and gives the market permission to keep defending risk.

The second force is location. ES, NQ, and RTY are not sitting in the middle of a quiet range. They are stretched against the higher-timeframe expected-move map. That does not make the market bearish by itself, but it does raise the quality bar for every long entry. When price is beyond quarterly +1SD, the cleanest continuation setups usually need acceptance, a controlled pullback, or a reclaim after a shakeout.

The PonoTrading expected-move run has VIX at 18.17, VXN at 23.76, GVZ at 26.48, and OVX at 72.15. That is an important mix: equity volatility is moderate enough to keep structure tradable, but crude volatility remains elevated enough to change the tone quickly if energy headlines heat up.

Today's daily 1SD map:

| Product | Daily 1SD Range | Current Planning Read | |---|---:|---| | ES | 7,303.38 - 7,534.62 | Above the Q2 +1SD alert area; acceptance matters more than emotion. | | NQ | 28,700.66 - 29,964.34 | Leadership remains strong, but the quarterly stretch is extreme. | | YM | 48,917 - 50,465 | Still inside a cleaner daily volatility band. | | RTY | 2,822.91 - 2,912.29 | Breadth proxy holding above quarterly +1SD. | | GC | 4,607.08 - 4,833.72 | Balanced inside the daily band unless macro fear returns. | | CL | 89.18 - 101.66 | The macro pressure valve; watch the upper range closely. |

The biggest alert is not one product. It is the cluster: ES quarterly +1SD, NQ quarterly +1SD, and RTY quarterly +1SD have all been reached. That is a market-wide stretch, not an isolated single-chart event.

Prior Session

Friday gave buyers what they needed. The April labor report was strong enough to support growth, but not so hot that the market had to immediately panic about inflation. That combination helped equities press higher and kept the AI/technology leadership story intact.

The more important detail is how the market handled the information. It did not simply bounce from a washed-out low. It pressed into an already extended zone. That changes the trading problem. A bullish headline after a clean pullback is one thing. A bullish headline at the upper side of a higher-timeframe distribution is different.

That is why Monday's read needs to separate trend from entry quality. Trend can remain constructive while chase entries become lower quality. Price can continue higher while the trader's risk/reward gets worse. Those two statements can both be true.

Friday also left crude risk unresolved. Energy volatility stayed elevated, which means equity traders cannot ignore CL even when Nasdaq is leading. If crude stays contained, risk can keep leaning on AI strength and resilient growth. If crude presses back toward the upper side of its daily expected move, inflation sensitivity and headline risk can return fast.

Overnight Markets

The overnight tape is best described as constructive but fragile. U.S. equity futures are hovering near record-high pressure, not breaking down, but also not giving traders a fresh low-risk base. That puts the focus on whether early strength can hold after the cash open.

Crude is the key cross-asset monitor. The CL daily map runs from 89.18 to 101.66, with the midpoint near 95.42. Inside that band, oil is elevated but still behaving inside the expected volatility envelope. Above the upper band, energy risk becomes louder and equity longs need more caution. Below the midpoint with acceptance, oil pressure cools and risk assets may get more breathing room.

Gold is not the lead story unless it starts leaving its own daily band. GC's daily range is 4,607.08 to 4,833.72. A quiet gold tape supports the idea that the market is still treating this as a risk-management problem rather than a full panic impulse.

The clean overnight message: risk appetite is alive, but the market is no longer cheap.

US Futures

ES

ES is operating around the key stretch zone. The daily 1SD map is 7,303.38 - 7,534.62, while the Q2 +1SD boundary sits near 7,399.17. That makes the 7,399 - 7,535 area the main battlefield.

Above that zone with acceptance, buyers can keep control and target continuation. The important word is acceptance. A fast push above the area that immediately fails is not acceptance; it is emotional extension. If ES loses the Q2 +1SD area and cannot reclaim it, the better read shifts toward rotation back inside the daily map.

NQ

NQ remains the leadership product and the most stretched product. The daily 1SD range is 28,700.66 - 29,964.34, while the quarterly map has already triggered the above +1SD alert. Leadership can stay strong here, but the trade needs structure.

If NQ holds above the lower side of the daily band and builds above prior acceptance, the long side can stay in play. If it pushes toward the upper daily band without internals or breadth confirmation, the risk of a failed extension rises.

RTY

RTY matters because it tells us whether risk appetite is broadening or narrowing. The daily 1SD range is 2,822.91 - 2,912.29, and RTY has also reached its Q2 +1SD alert. Holding above 2,822 - 2,829 keeps the breadth story constructive. Losing that area would warn that the rally is becoming more dependent on mega-cap leadership.

CL

Crude remains the macro switch. The daily CL map is 89.18 - 101.66. If CL holds inside the range, equities can keep treating oil as a contained risk. If CL accepts above 101.66, energy becomes a front-page problem again and equity longs need to account for headline-driven de-risking.

Expected Move Map

The expected-move map says today's market is not random noise. It is a set of decision zones.

| Product | Daily Midpoint | Daily 1SD | Daily 2SD | |---|---:|---:|---:| | ES | 7,419.00 | 7,303.38 - 7,534.62 | 7,187.76 - 7,650.24 | | NQ | 29,332.50 | 28,700.66 - 29,964.34 | 28,068.81 - 30,596.19 | | RTY | 2,867.60 | 2,822.91 - 2,912.29 | 2,778.22 - 2,956.98 | | GC | 4,720.40 | 4,607.08 - 4,833.72 | 4,493.76 - 4,947.04 | | CL | 95.42 | 89.18 - 101.66 | 82.94 - 107.90 |

The higher-timeframe map is where the real edge is today. Daily levels help with intraday execution, but quarterly +1SD tells us the broader auction is stretched. That means traders should be careful with any setup that only works if price keeps moving in a straight line.

The best use of these levels:

Inside daily 1SD: be patient and let structure form.

At daily +1SD: require confirmation before chasing continuation.

Back inside after a failed push: target midpoint before assuming collapse.

Above quarterly +1SD: respect the trend, but reduce tolerance for sloppy entries.

Market-Moving Headlines

The headline stack is not one-directional.

The bullish side is still supported by Friday's labor data, AI leadership, and index resilience near record highs. A labor market that cools without breaking gives traders a reason to keep risk bid. Strong technology leadership gives NQ a reason to keep outperforming.

The risk side is oil and inflation sensitivity. Crude volatility remains high, and energy headlines can matter more when equities are already extended. If oil jumps while ES and NQ are above higher-timeframe expected-move bands, the market can rotate quickly because late buyers are sitting in a less forgiving location.

The most important headline for traders is still price itself. If the market holds the stretched zones with clean acceptance, the bullish trend deserves respect. If the market rejects the stretched zones, the same bullish story can become a trap for late longs.

Economic Calendar

The week has several catalysts that can shape the next volatility impulse. Monday's calendar is lighter than Friday's jobs report, but the market is already looking ahead to inflation and consumer data.

| Event | Timing | Market Read | |---|---|---| | NAHB Housing Market Index | Monday | Secondary, but useful for rate-sensitive sentiment. | | CPI | Later this week | The main inflation test for a stretched equity tape. | | PPI | Later this week | Confirms or challenges the inflation read from CPI. | | Retail Sales | Later this week | Tests whether the consumer can support the growth story. | | Fed commentary | Ongoing | Matters most if oil or inflation expectations rise. |

The practical read: Monday can trade technically, but the week has enough macro risk that traders should avoid oversized assumptions from one opening move.

Earnings On Deck

Earnings season is winding down, but the leadership message still matters. The market has been rewarding AI infrastructure, semiconductors, cloud, and large-cap technology themes. That leadership is the reason NQ has been able to stretch so far beyond higher-timeframe expected-move zones.

The problem is that leadership can be right and still be crowded. When the market is already extended, earnings strength tends to produce two types of trades: continuation with acceptance, or exhaustion after a final push. The difference usually shows up in pullback quality.

For Monday, watch whether AI leaders hold bid without needing the entire market to chase. If leadership broadens and RTY holds its stretch zone, risk appetite remains healthy. If leadership narrows while RTY loses its key area, the rally becomes more fragile.

The Plan

Bull Case

The bull case is simple: ES holds above the Q2 +1SD zone, NQ keeps leadership, RTY confirms breadth, and crude remains inside its daily expected move. In that environment, dips can stay shallow and buyers can continue pressing toward upper daily bands.

The best long setup is not the first emotional candle. It is a pullback that holds above a key level, a reclaim after a shakeout, or a clean acceptance build above the prior resistance area.

Bear Case

The bear case is not "the market is too high." That is not enough. The bear case needs rejection.

If ES fails to hold 7,399 - 7,535, if NQ loses its lower daily band, or if RTY falls back below the 2,822 - 2,829 area, the market can rotate from continuation into digestion. If crude accepts above 101.66 at the same time, the risk-off case gets stronger.

Best Trade Location

The cleanest trades are likely to come from the edges:

| Setup | Trigger | First Planning Target | |---|---|---| | ES acceptance long | Holds above Q2 +1SD and builds structure | Upper daily band near 7,535 | | ES failed extension | Pushes above stretch zone and rejects | Daily midpoint near 7,419 | | NQ continuation | Holds above 28,700 and breadth confirms | Upper daily band near 29,964 | | RTY breadth warning | Loses 2,822 - 2,829 | Reduce confidence in broad risk-on | | CL risk trigger | Accepts above 101.66 | Watch equity de-risking impulse |

Bottom Line

Monday's Market Pulse is constructive, but not careless.

The trend is still firm, jobs data helped the bull case, and AI-led leadership keeps NQ dangerous on the upside. But ES, NQ, and RTY have all reached quarterly +1SD alerts. That means the market is not offering cheap location. It is offering a test of acceptance.

Trade the map. Let the first move show whether buyers are accepting higher prices or whether the open is simply trapping late emotion. The best long trades need structure. The best short trades need rejection. The worst trades are the ones taken because the headline sounds obvious.

Want the daily prep room, expected-move levels, and trader accountability before the bell? Join the free PonoTrading prep room.

Read the full Market Pulse on PonoTrading: https://ponotrading.com/blog/market-pulse-may-11-2026