#expected moves

AI PCs Kick Off June as Oil Jumps Into Jobs Week - Market Pulse for Monday, June 1, 2026

> U.S. index futures are modestly green to start June, but the macro tone is not “easy mode.” Crude is back on the front page, yields are grinding higher, and the week builds into ISM/JOLTS/ADP and Jobs Friday. Today’s edge is treating oil + rates as the risk filter, and treating AI leadership as the upside engine. ---

What You Need To Know Right Now

Here’s the premarket map in plain English: | Theme | What’s happening | Why it matters | |---|---|---| | Index futures | ES is modestly higher (S&P 500 futures around 7,608) | Bulls still have control, but today is about *acceptance* more than a headline pop. | | Oil | WTI and Brent are +~3% premarket | Higher oil = higher inflation anxiety = tighter financial conditions (especially for growth). | | Rates | Yields are edging up across the curve | Rising yields can cap multiple expansion and punish crowded leadership if it stumbles. | | Dollar | DXY is ~99 | A firmer dollar can tighten the noose on risk appetite and commodities. | | Volatility | Equity vol remains contained, oil vol remains the wildcard | When oil is the story, OVX matters more than VIX. | | Calendar | ISM Manufacturing at 10:00am ET | One number can reprice “soft landing vs. sticky inflation” and swing yields. | The setup is constructive, but not careless.

Prior Session

Friday closed May with the tape still in “record-high behavior.” That matters because the market is not entering June from a weak base. But the handoff into a new month also changes the game: - Month-end flows are gone. - A heavier macro calendar shows up immediately. - Energy headlines are back in control of intraday inflation expectations. If the market is going to extend higher, it needs to do it while oil is rising and yields are firming - not after those pressures fade.

Overnight Markets

Overnight price action looks like a classic split-screen macro: - Asia leaned risk-on in pockets (notably semis/memory), but the overall catalyst is still U.S. tech leadership. - Europe is mixed, with energy and some tech support but broader “wait and see” positioning. - Oil is the loudest cross-asset move. If you trade index futures, the question isn’t whether the market can open green. The question is whether it can *hold* green once the bond market and oil market start doing their thing during U.S. hours.

US Futures Snapshot

**S&P 500 futures (ES)** are up modestly premarket (around 7,608, with an early range roughly 7,606–7,623). **Nasdaq futures (NQ)** are also higher, but the story is leadership quality, not the index print. **Russell 2000 futures (RTY)** are hovering near flat to slightly red around 2,923 - the “breadth check” remains the same: small caps need to participate if this rally is going to broaden.

The AI Catalyst (What’s Actually New)

Nvidia and Microsoft are back in the driver’s seat after unveiling a new push to bring AI capabilities directly into PCs (laptops/desktops). That is not just “AI hype” - it is an attempt to widen the TAM beyond data centers and keep the refresh-cycle narrative alive. Important nuance: **the semi reaction is mixed**. When the leader is up but other major chip names are down, the market is telling you to watch *concentration risk*.

Oil, Rates, Dollar

Oil is the immediate pressure point. - **WTI** is around **$90** (+~3%) - **Brent** is around **$93–94** (+~3%) That matters because oil strength can bleed into: 1) inflation expectations 2) yields 3) the Fed path 4) consumer sensitivity Rates are also leaning the wrong direction for complacency: - **2Y** roughly **4.03%** - **10Y** roughly **4.47%** - **30Y** roughly **4.99%** And the dollar index is holding near **99**. This is the filter: - If oil + yields keep climbing, upside needs to be “earned” (acceptance and rotation), not just chased. - If oil cools or yields stall, the market can sprint again.

Volatility Snapshot (VIX / VXN / OVX)

As of the last close: - **VIX:** ~15.8 - **VXN (Nasdaq vol):** ~22.6 - **OVX (oil vol):** ~57.8 Equity vol is not screaming “crash.” But **OVX staying elevated** is the reminder: when crude is moving, your risk isn’t only the index level - it’s the speed of repricing.

Expected Move Levels

These are the PonoTrading expected move levels generated for Monday, June 1, 2026. Daily, weekly, and monthly levels are fixed from the 2026-05-29 close. The important read is simple: ES and NQ are still in bullish structure, but the Q2 stretch means fresh longs need clean acceptance, not chase entries.

Market Volatility Snapshot

**VIX:** 15.91% | **VXN:** 22.58% | **GVZ:** 24.91% | **OVX:** 57.84% Compressed equity volatility keeps the grind alive, but OVX near 58 means oil can still force fast repricing.

Daily Expected Moves

Anchor: Daily levels are calculated from the 2026-05-29 close and held fixed for the 2026-06-01 period. | Product | Price | Vol Used | 1SD Range | 2SD Range | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:| | **ES** S&P 500 E-mini | 7,595.75 | VIX 15.32% | 7,490.25 - 7,701.25 (+/-105.50) | 7,384.75 - 7,806.75 | | **NQ** Nasdaq 100 E-mini | 30,405.25 | VXN 22.58% | 29,782.83 - 31,027.67 (+/-622.42) | 29,160.40 - 31,650.10 | | **YM** Dow E-mini | 51,077 | VIX 15.32% | 50,368 - 51,786 (+/-709) | 49,658 - 52,496 | | **RTY** Russell 2000 E-mini | 2,924.30 | VIX 15.32% | 2,883.68 - 2,964.92 (+/-40.62) | 2,843.07 - 3,005.53 | | **GC** Gold futures | 4,560.50 | GVZ 24.91% | 4,457.51 - 4,663.49 (+/-102.99) | 4,354.52 - 4,766.48 | | **CL** Crude oil futures | 87.36 | OVX 57.84% | 82.78 - 91.94 (+/-4.58) | 78.20 - 96.52 | #### Daily Alerts

Weekly Expected Moves

Anchor: Weekly levels are calculated from the 2026-05-29 close and held fixed for the 2026-W23 period. | Product | Price | Vol Used | 1SD Range | 2SD Range | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:| | **ES** S&P 500 E-mini | 7,595.75 | VIX 15.32% | 7,434.60 - 7,756.90 (+/-161.15) | 7,273.45 - 7,918.05 | | **NQ** Nasdaq 100 E-mini | 30,405.25 | VXN 22.58% | 29,454.48 - 31,356.02 (+/-950.77) | 28,503.71 - 32,306.79 | | **YM** Dow E-mini | 51,077 | VIX 15.32% | 49,993 - 52,161 (+/-1,084) | 48,910 - 53,244 | | **RTY** Russell 2000 E-mini | 2,924.30 | VIX 15.32% | 2,862.26 - 2,986.34 (+/-62.04) | 2,800.22 - 3,048.38 | | **GC** Gold futures | 4,560.50 | GVZ 24.91% | 4,403.18 - 4,717.82 (+/-157.32) | 4,245.86 - 4,875.14 | | **CL** Crude oil futures | 87.36 | OVX 57.84% | 80.36 - 94.36 (+/-7.00) | 73.36 - 101.36 | #### Weekly Alerts

Monthly Expected Moves

Anchor: Monthly levels are calculated from the 2026-05-29 close and held fixed for the 2026-06 period. | Product | Price | Vol Used | 1SD Range | 2SD Range | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:| | **ES** S&P 500 E-mini | 7,595.75 | VIX 15.32% | 7,251.20 - 7,940.30 (+/-344.55) | 6,906.64 - 8,284.86 | | **NQ** Nasdaq 100 E-mini | 30,405.25 | VXN 22.58% | 28,372.42 - 32,438.08 (+/-2,032.83) | 26,339.59 - 34,470.91 | | **YM** Dow E-mini | 51,077 | VIX 15.32% | 48,760 - 53,394 (+/-2,317) | 46,443 - 55,711 | | **RTY** Russell 2000 E-mini | 2,924.30 | VIX 15.32% | 2,791.65 - 3,056.95 (+/-132.65) | 2,659.00 - 3,189.60 | | **GC** Gold futures | 4,560.50 | GVZ 24.91% | 4,224.13 - 4,896.87 (+/-336.37) | 3,887.76 - 5,233.24 | | **CL** Crude oil futures | 87.36 | OVX 57.84% | 72.40 - 102.32 (+/-14.96) | 57.44 - 117.28 | #### Monthly Alerts

Higher-Timeframe Alerts

- **ES:** Quarterly expected move above +1SD reached. Current price 7,588.75 versus saved Q2 map: 5,742.33 - 7,399.17 1SD and 4,913.91 - 8,227.59 2SD. - **NQ:** Quarterly expected move above +1SD reached. Current price 30,344.75 versus saved Q2 map: 20,542.83 - 27,287.17 1SD and 17,170.66 - 30,659.34 2SD. - **RTY:** Quarterly expected move above +1SD reached. Current price 2,905.00 versus saved Q2 map: 2,195.47 - 2,828.93 1SD and 1,878.74 - 3,145.66 2SD.

Gamma Flip Lines

Latest available PonoTrading gamma map: | Symbol | Price Area | Gamma Flip | Current Read | |---|---:|---:|---| | SPY | 708.00 | 708.00 | Sitting directly on the flip | | QQQ | 646.30 | 646.00 | Positive gamma above the flip | | SPX | 7,102.95 | 7,105.00 | Just below the flip | | NDX | 26,569 | 26,570 | Just below the flip | | IWM | 276.55 | 277.00 | Just below the flip | | NVDA | 200.07 | 200.00 | Positive gamma above the flip | | MSFT | 418.94 | 420.00 | Below the flip | | AAPL | 272.93 | 272.50 | Positive gamma above the flip | | AMZN | 247.71 | 247.50 | Positive gamma above the flip | | TSLA | 392.71 | 392.50 | Positive gamma above the flip | | DIA | 493.45 | 479.43 | Positive gamma above the flip | | XLF | 52.52 | 50.90 | Positive gamma above the flip | | RUT | 2,786 | 2,785 | Positive gamma above the flip | The practical read: QQQ and several large-cap leaders are still on the constructive side of their flips, but SPX/NDX/IWM are close enough to their flip lines that a small sell impulse can change the hedging environment quickly. If oil keeps pressure on yields and those index flips fail, intraday volatility can expand faster than VIX alone suggests.

Economic Calendar (ET)

Monday’s key events: - **10:00am:** ISM Manufacturing PMI (May) - **10:00am:** Construction Spending (April) Then the week stacks: - **Tue:** JOLTS - **Wed:** ADP, ISM Services, Beige Book - **Thu:** Jobless Claims - **Fri:** Nonfarm Payrolls In a jobs week, the market can drift early and then get violent later. Respect that rhythm.

Earnings Watch

Two prints matter for the AI narrative this week: - **Palo Alto Networks (PANW):** Tuesday, **June 2**, after the close - **Broadcom (AVGO):** Wednesday, **June 3**, after the close PANW can swing the “AI spend is real vs. slowing” story in software/security. AVGO is a heavyweight for the “custom silicon + AI infrastructure” narrative. If Broadcom guides strong, it supports the semi complex. If it disappoints, it can pressure NQ quickly.

The Plan

This is the practical plan for today:

Bullish Path

Bulls want: - oil strength to stay **contained** (no vertical repricing) - yields to stop grinding higher intraday - AI leadership to stay bid without the rest of semis collapsing If that happens, the market can keep pushing record territory.

Bearish / Risk-Off Path

Bears need: - oil continues to climb and pulls yields higher - the dollar firms and risk appetite fades - AI leadership cracks (or becomes too narrow) If that happens, the more likely day is chop-to-down and “wait for ISM/JOLTS/ADP/NFP” positioning.

Bottom Line

The tape is bullish, but the macro filter is tightening. If crude stays hot and yields keep rising, the market needs breadth and rotation - not just one more squeeze in a couple mega-cap names. Trade the levels. Respect oil. Let the calendar do its work. Not financial advice. Trade your plan.