jasper

“The Hunger Games” specific

Prim was reaped because of her relation to the Covey

Explanation: Snow somehow found out that there were descendants of the Covey still alive in 12 and decided to have Prim reaped to get rid of them.

Counterpoint: How would he have found out that Prim and Katniss were even Covey? They would be incredibly distantly related by now and know nothing about the culture other than a few of the songs. If he cared enough to rig the reaping, then surely he would’ve found out before and had Burdock’s generation wiped out or had Katniss reaped previously. Also, though most people act like Snow was still obsessed with them, he knew that four of them were still alive when he left in Ballad. When he found out about Lenore Dove, he said she would be safe if Haymitch didn’t survive the Games, and Snow doesn’t lie. He doesn’t care as much about the Covey as most people think he does.

Prim was reaped because of Katniss hunting

Explanation: The Capitol knew about Katniss going beyond the boundaries of the District and wanted to punish her for hunting.

Counterpoint: If they knew this and cared enough to do something about it, why didn’t they punish her in other ways like bringing in Peacekeepers like Thread who were harsher or turning the fence on? Why would only Katniss be punished when Gale had eligible younger brothers and it would be a lot clearer that they were being punished if both Prim and Rory were reaped.

Prim was reaped because they made a “big guy/little girl” dynamic for 11&12

Explanation: While it wasn’t specifically Prim that was chosen to be reaped, the girl bowl only contained the names of young girls and the boy bowl only contained names of older males so that the Capitol had a dynamic to work with between the tributes in both 11 & 12.

Counterpoint: Why would both 12 & 11 need to have this dynamic? It also ruins the whole point of the series being that the odds are never in your favour - Prim’s name is in there once and yet she is reaped completely fairly.

Prim and Peeta were reaped because they were the next generation of healers/bakers

Explanation: Self-explanatory.

Counterpoint: Peeta was not the next generation of bakers, he was never going to inherit the bakery because he had two older brothers. He also was more of a decorator than a baker as indicated from his talent and passion in it. Prim was also not publicly doing anything to do with medicine and whoever would rig it would have no reason to know that unless they were stalking her extremely closely. Also, why would the Capitol care?

Foxface ate the nightlock berries on purpose

Explanation: Foxface was shown to be incredibly careful and intelligent and so slipping up and eating the poisonous berries seems out of character. She was also shown at a station about plant life in the movies which implies she has knowledge on them. At this point in the Games she was exhausted and no longer wanted to continue but knew that if her suicide was obvious her family could be punished so she made it seem like she didn’t know the berries were poisonous before eating them.

Counterpoint: Showing her at the station was movie-exclusive and therefore not apart of the author’s vision. It also appeared to be more of a matching game than related to figuring out what was safe to eat. Foxface is stealing from other people’s food the whole time and assumes that Peeta knows that the nightlock is safe to eat. She was literally in the final 5 and it would be incredibly confusing if she gave up there after pushing so far. Nightlock would not be a familiar berry to Foxface as it only grows outside of 12 and even if she was aware of it there was a similar-looking berry in the arena she could have mistaken it for.

Thresh had a rebel plan in the arena/was a “Mockingjay”

Explanation: We have no idea what Thresh is doing and he is barely shown in the recap of the games that Katniss and Peeta watch. He also clearly cared about Rue and yet did not ally with her, so it may have been the same situation as Haymitch having to leave the Newcomers behind. We also know that 11 is quite a rebellious District. He might have had a plan to break the arena that was kept off camera. It is also described that he looks better-fed than he was at the start of the Games, so maybe his rebel sponsors were sending in a lot of sponsors so he could be well-fed.

Counterpoint: We don’t see Thresh a lot in the recap because it is Katniss and Peeta’s story, and he lacks importance in that other than sparing Katniss and dying. On top of that, he is described to have a large part of the territory in the arena to himself, meaning any food in that area was all his. Since he wasn’t actively seeking out fights, he had a good hold on purely surviving which means a steady flow of food from the arena. Also, Katniss and Peeta were always meant to become rebel symbols - Haymitch, Cinna & Portia were working together from the start to draw attention to them and pair them together as a sign of unity that grew and developed with the storyline that unfolded via Peeta’s crush and Katniss’s small acts of rebellion like caring for and eulogising Rue.

Peeta’s parents were taking out tesserae on him

Explanation: In order to get extra supplies for the bakery, they were secretly having Peeta’s name be put in the bowl extra times for tesserae.

Counterpoint: A huge part of the series is that the odds are never in your favour, which goes for Prim and Peeta. Sometimes people from town were reaped, which we also see with Maysilee. There doesn’t need to be a conspiracy about it; the odds are impossible to calculate when chance is factored in.

Peeta killed Foxface on purpose

Explanation: Peeta knew that Foxface was following him and knew from Katniss that she had stolen the Careers food previously so figured out that she would do the same thing and purposefully picked the poisonous nightlock hoping to trick her. Alternatively he forced the berries down her throat.

Counterpoint: Peeta genuinely did not know what nightlock was, he likely could not have figured out Foxface was following him and the whole point of her death is to show Peeta’s naïvety and he feels guilty after realising what “he” did. Also, the alternative where he poisoned her himself has all the same flaws as well as not being possible because it would’ve been shown in the recap.

Cashmere trained Glimmer badly on purpose

Explanation: Cashmere, or whoever Glimmer’s mentor was, knew that she would be trafficked because of how beautiful she was and the fact she was already being sexualised with her see-through dress in the interviews. Not wanting her to face this fate, she is trained badly so that she does not survive.

Counterpoint: Glimmer is as well-trained and skilled as Clove, she’s just not using a weapon she dedicated a lot of time training with before she was reaped. Despite this, she is by no means useless with it, it just seems this way because Katniss is so good with it. Glimmer’s perceived incompetence is nothing to do with poor training and is instead because of her arrogance and all of their opinions on Katniss. Also, this absolutely wouldn’t be the first time that they went the “beautiful girl” route and chose something revealing for a tribute and although indicating their future trafficking if they win it is a good way to get sponsors. From what we know of 1 anyway, it’d be more important to get the glory of a Victor than for them to get them killed on purpose.

“Catching Fire” specific

Peeta’s name was not in the bowl for the 75th

Explanation: Peeta was the easiest way to control and punish Katniss simultaneously so Snow wanted him to be in the arena so that they could torture Katniss before he died. It would also show that the double Victor win would be meaningless as they’d both die less than a year later, plus it was good storytelling.

Counterpoint: Haymitch was a rebel with a lot of connections and it would’ve suited Snow if either of them had died alongside Katniss since he was never going to allow her to survive.

75th arena was made for Finnick

Explanation: The beginning area surrounding the Cornucopia was surrounded by water, obviously giving an advantage to the tributes from 4 as we don’t know of any other District that has a designated area to learn where to swim.

Counterpoint: All of the tributes had floatation devices that meant that they could float to or away from the Cornucopia and no one had a huge advantage. They didn’t plan for everyone to drown. Additionally, Finnick nor Mags had any idea what a spile is or how to survive in the rainforest setting. Also, the Victors Quell was decided on at earliest after Katniss’s victory, which was less than a year before the arena was made. They didn’t plan the arena around any Victors, and it giving 4 a slight advantage isn’t strange because they’re Careers and would most likely make it to the Cornucopia first on a regular year.

The 75th Games wasn’t meant to have a winner

Explanation: The Gamemakers and Snow decided to take every single one of the Victors out in one fell swoop with one of the most brutal Games and didn’t want a single one of them to survive.

Counterpoint: They had just gone through all that trouble of having 2 Victors in the 74th, it’s unlikely they’d purposefully make it so no one emerges victorious from this arena especially because the Capitol already disliked these Games because it meant they would lose all of their favourites. If they wanted to get rid of the rebels, they would’ve just worked in a Careers favour.

Seneca Crane was a rebel

Explanation: Seneca was a rebel working with Plutarch and this is why he allowed Katniss and Peeta to win.

Counterpoint: Seneca was just raised to view the Games entirely as a spectacle and was completely blind to the political impact that Katniss and Peeta would have. As Snow calls him, a “romantic”.

“Mockingjay” specific

Tigris bought Finnick and told him secrets about Snow

Explanation: Finnick was sold by Capitol higher-ups. Tigris was a stylist in the Games for many years and knew this would happen to him so she pays to spend time with him, but instead of sleeping with him she just tells him about Snow. We know Tigris is empathetic so she may have done this in order to spare him some of the abuse momentarily. This is what Finnick means by his currency being in ‘secrets’ and why he specifically calls out Snow in his propo.

“Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes” specific

Spruce and Lil are Everdeens

Explanation: Lil’s full name may be Lilac, which is a flower that has medicinal properties, the same as Primrose. Similarly, Spruce is a plant-themed name that can be eaten similarly to Katniss. 

Counterpoint: They’re never mentioned to have another sibling or family which would be required for the Everdeen name to be passed down as both are dead by the end of Ballad.

Spruce and Lil are Abernathys

Explanation: Haymitch states that he has rebel ancestors and Spruce and Lil were rebels.

Counterpoint: They’re never mentioned to have another sibling or family which would be required for the Abernathy name to be passed down as both are dead by the end of Ballad.

Lucy Gray is Alma Coin

Explanation: Lucy Gray herself says that she would not last in the wilderness on her own, so since there was no evidence of Snow killing her in Ballad she escaped and fled to 13 which we know is not actually that far from 12 and could be done even with minimal food because of Lucy Gray’s knowledge of nature.

Counterpoint: Lucy Gray’s personality and goals don’t fit with Coin’s at all. Lucy Gray would also be around 80 years old by the time that we see her in Mockingjay and Coin is in her 60s.

Lucy Gray is Alma Coin’s mother

Explanation: Essentially the same as above but Lucy Gray settled down with a man in 13 and had a child with them that went on to become Coin and died before the trilogy, possibly during the outbreak.

Dr. Gaul bombed the arena

Explanation: During a tour of the arena before the 10th Games, it is bombed by what the official story comes to dub rebels. Despite the fact it is 10 years after the war ended, the rebels don’t gain anything from bombing the arena, they couldn’t have known that anyone was meant to be there and the whole bombing ends up being used as a way to push hatred for the Districts in the Capitol and get them to believe in the Hunger Hames again by Gaul. We know she has no issues hurting Capitol children for no reason, as shown with Clemensia, and I’m sure she would consider inspiring hatred for the Districts to be a reason to kill a lot of them anyway.

Finnick knew about Lucy Gray

Explanation: Building off the Tigris told Finnick secrets theory, she could have informed him about Lucy Gray. Additionally, Mags - in movie lore - won the 11th Games, the years after Lucy Gray. This could mean she had some memory of her that she told Finnick about.

“Sunrise on the Reaping” specific

Maude Ivory is Lenore Dove’s mother

Explanation: Lenore Dove was born in December of the 33rd year of the Hunger Games. Maude Ivory was stated to be 8 or 9 in Ballad at the 10th year of the Hunger Games, making her 31-33 at the time of Lenore Dove’s birth which is a reasonable age to have children. It is stated that Lenore Dove’s mother died in childbirth and Maude Ivory’s grave is shown at the end of Sunrise, explicitly showing us that she is deceased. Lenore Dove is also connected to Maude Ivory subtly in the description of her clothing where she wears an “ivory” ribbon.

Lucy Gray is Lenore Dove’s mother

Explanation: Lucy Gray would have been 39 or 40 as of Lenore Dove’s birth. As people get older, childbirth becomes more dangerous, which means that as Lucy Gray was getting older her pregnancy was dangerous and ended up killing her in childbirth. Alternatively, she didn’t die in childbirth and just disappeared again after giving birth and that was how CC and Tam Amber explained her mother’s absence. Lucy Gray stated when she was running away with Coriolanus that she couldn’t be on her own out here and she’d end up turning back to the Covey eventually, so she just returns at some point after the events of Ballad. This is why Lenore Dove owns scraps of Lucy Gray’s rainbow dress and why she is so tight-lipped about her.

Counterpoint: Lucy Gray was a wanted person for the murder of Mayfair Lipp and thats why she was running away from District 12. Had she returned while Mayor Lipp was still alive, he likely would have had her hung.  

Barb Azure is Burdock’s grandmother

Explanation: Lenore Dove and Burdock are distant cousins on his mother’s side, and following this theory Lenore Dove would be his grandmother’s cousin’s daughter which is “distant”. Barb Azure is most likely too old to be his mother, as she was at least 18 in Ballad making her at least 42 when Burdock was born (which isn’t completely unreasonable but given thats the lowest it could possibly be its pushing it). Additionally this would explain why Burdock, despite being related to the Covey (of which we know only 6 people settled in 12), doesn’t have a Covey name as Barb Azure’s daughter may not have been musically inclined or simply not raised in the way of the Covey.

Counterpoint: Barb Azure is a lesbian and therefore could not have had kids.

Counterpoint to counterpoint: Barb Azure could be bisexual or the child could have been the result of SA, potentially be a Peacekeeper, as both SA and Peacekeepers fathering District babies is mentioned explicitly in Sunrise. 

Lenore Dove’s father is a Peacekeeper

Explanation: Peacekeepers fathering children is mentioned in Sunrise but seems unrelated and strange to mention with no ties to any characters. Lenore Dove is rumoured to be fathered by a male Chance however none have ever claimed her as their daughter despite her closeness to them. Maude Ivory’s name poem involves Maude Clare being in a love triangle with a higher-class man who picks a woman of the same class over her perhaps relating to how her Peacekeeper partner could’ve chosen an acceptable and respectable life in the Capitol over her.

Lenore Dove is Lucy Gray and Snow’s child

Explanation: Lucy Gray was pregnant when she left Snow.

Counterpoint: The child would’ve been born around the 11th Games and been nearly 40 by Sunrise, which Lenore Dove isn’t. Also, there’s no indication of Lucy Gray and Coriolanus sleeping together and no point in Ballad where it could have happened.

Hazelle Hawthorne is a Chance

Explanation: There are no Chances mentioned in the main trilogy despite them having ties in 12 all the way back to before the Dark Days and the family seeming to be quite huge in Sunrise with Woodbine being the youngest, suggesting he has several older brothers and cousins, Haymitch grabbing “one of” the Chance girls at the end of Sunrise implying there are multiple and the family face a large amount of executions and would have been wiped out a lot sooner had they not been a huge family. Their rebel behaviour could’ve led them to dying out, but Hazelle was more sensible and stayed out of rebel activity. However, the Chance blood still runs through the Hawthorne’s veins and Gale is the very first person to be put under the whip when new, harsher authority in 12 arrives.

Hazelle Hawthorne is a McCoy

Explanation: Louella mentions having an older sister and has quite a few siblings. After becoming a Victor, Haymitch rejects any and all help but ends up allowing Hazelle to be his maid. This could be because she reminds him of Louella and he still feels he has to make it up to her family after not protecting her.

Plutarch is gay

Explanation: Sunrise tells us that homophobia exists in Panem and people are treated poorly if they’re gay. In the same book, Plutarch tells Haymitch he wants “freedom” and Capitol life isn’t what Haymitch thinks it is.

Maysilee and Merrilee swapped places at the Reaping

Explanation: Maysilee and Merrilee swapped places at the reaping and thats why Haymitch calls Merrilee “Maysilee” at the end - he’s actually seeing Maysilee. This is also why ‘Merrilee’ is bedridden with migraines because of her guilt and grief from her sister’s death that should’ve been her own.

The 50th Games was rigged to have a winner from 12

Explanation: 50 years had gone by without a single Victor from 12 who was eligible to mentor. They could have seen Maysilee as a strong contender for a Victor as she had a strong personality, was an efficient killer during the Games and was beautiful. As such, they may have been helping her along in small ways such as making sure she was far enough away from the volcano eruption that it wouldn’t damage her.

Blair is Mayor Undersee

Explanation: We never get his surname. Blair’s actor ships Merrilee and Blair.

Counterpoint: Blair is from the Seam, and it is incredibly unlikely a boy from the Seam could ever be the Mayor.

Blair is Gale’s dad

Explanation: We never get his surname. He’s from the Seam.

Counterpoint: Burdock and Blair were obviously close as teenagers and unlike their relationships with Haymitch they would’ve had no reason to drift apart, meaning Gale and Katniss meeting only once their fathers were dead seem unlikely.

Maysilee’s grandmother was Barb Azure’s girlfriend

Explanation: The pins that Tam Amber crafted were originally Maysilee’s grandmothers, possibly made for her during the time that they dated. Maysilee also remembers her grandmother quoting a line from “Nothing You Can Take From Me” which while she would’ve been alive to hear Lucy Gray sing at her reaping is much more impactful if she knew the Covey personally and thats where she remembered the song and its wisdom from.

Cinna is Beetee’s son

Explanation: We find out that Beetee’s wife is pregnant at the end of Sunrise, meaning they would’ve been born at the start of 51THG. This lines up well to Katniss’s description of Cinna being young, as he’d be about 23, about the age someone would leave university. We have no idea why Cinna is a rebel and this family connection could be why.

Counterpoint: If the Capitol had taken the child, it would’ve been at birth, and being a rebel isn’t a genetic thing. They also wouldn’t have any reason to take the baby in favour of leaving Beetee to raise them knowing if he stepped out of line they would meet the same fate as Ampert.

Miscellaneous

The 25th Games had no Victor

Explanation: We know that the 25th Games Victor is no longer around by the fact that Effie does not give them the tape with the 25th Games on them when they’re watching all of the past games in Catching Fire. We also can garner from their reaction to Katniss and Peeta in the 74th Games that giving into rebellious demand and allowing 2  Victors was the preference to having 0, which could imply there was no Victor in a past game. This game of all makes the most sense as they were voted on by their District to take part and if that was based on dislike the Victor may not feel any want to return home to them.

Careers started from the 25th Games

Explanation: Instead of just voting on the most disliked people in the District, it would make sense that a few braver people from the better-fed and stronger Districts may have realised that they could train between the time the Quell was announced and going into the arena so that they had a better chance of winning. These Districts would then realise what a good idea this was paired with volunteering so the idea of Careers really came into fashion in the Games following the 25th.

The 25th Games Victor was from 12

Explanation: This Victor did something rebellious and was wiped from existence, which is why Katniss and Peeta don’t get the tape for them even though it might still be useful to get an idea of the first Quell even if the Victor wasn’t alive.

Counterpoint: There are people alive in Sunrise that would’ve remembered the Victor. They also would’ve voted on who to send in so they had an even deeper understanding of who the tributes were this year. By this point, unlike the 10th, the Games were huge (especially for the first Quell) and were mandatory viewing everywhere. No one could forget this Victor.

Annie is a body double replaced before her Games

Explanation: Despite being a Career who trained for the Games all her life, Annie ‘went mad’ after watching her District partner be beheaded. Why would she if she was used to and understood the violence? If instead she died before the Games and was a rebel’s child who had been raised imprisoned in the Capitol, she never would’ve been privy to that kind of violence. This is why she’s mad still by the trilogy too, because she’s been being controlled by the Capitol the whole time which we know from Lou Lou can include torture like making then listen to high pitched noises if they say something out of line.

Counterpoint: There’s no explanation needed for why such a traumatising event would make her lose her mind even if she thought she knew what she was getting into. She also still went by Annie as of the end of Mockingjay which would be odd if she was replaced, and people would know.

Annie is a body double replaced after her Games

Explanation: Annie’s mind was so broken from her District partner’s death that the fact that she still managed to swim her way to victory is surprising. All the other tributes actually drowned and the Capitol didn’t want to look stupid so they just made it seem like Annie won because she was from D4 and ‘could swim’ so she was replaced with a body double. The reason she was so mentally broken in the trilogy is because she was tortured and also controlled almost completely all through her Victory Tour.

Annie was working on a rebel plan during her Games/Annie was a “Mockingjay”

Explanation: We know Beetee’s plan for Haymitch in Sunrise is to flood the arena, and Annie’s arena had an earthquake and then flooded which sounds similar how they would explain away the aftershocks of the water tank exploding in Sunrise. While natural disasters are used as arena events like the volcanic eruption a huge flood over the whole arena doesn’t seem like it would be very entertaining as it would just mean that whoever could swim would automatically win, which turned out to be Annie.

Counterpoint: There’s very little chance the Capitol would’ve allowed someone who succeeded in breaking the arena and ruined the Games to be the one to win.

There was a rebel plot going on during Annie’s Games

Explanation: Essentially the above theory, but with other tributes breaking the arena who were killed either during the flood or by the Gamemakers.

Johanna was working on a rebel plan during her Games/Johanna was a “Mockingjay”

Explanation: Johanna’s act with being tearful was to keep the cameras away from her and be unsuspecting so she could carry out a rebel plot during her Games.

Enobaria sharpened her teeth to avoid being trafficked

Explanation: Enobaria did not like being trafficked following her Games and thought that sharpening her teeth would make Capitolites not want to sleep with her anymore.

Counterpoint: We have no reason to believe that sharpened teeth would stop the Capitol from buying her, given the extensive cosmetic surgery they have themselves.

Enobaria sharpened teeth her teeth before/during the Games