Mansourâs Year; The Divide Between the Mortal and Immortal
 Do you ever wonder, âWas I born to late?â or âIs death really in my future?â. These are questions asked by everyone at some point in their lives. Immortality is a goal that humans have pondered since were given the ablity to ponder. The ancient Greeks believed the food of the gods, ambrosia, would grant who ever consumed it vigor and immortality. Itâs a godly quality, but many people believe itâs coming soon. And by soon, I mean within your lifetime.
There are countless articles explaining how humanity will achieve immortality in the next century in a myriad of ways. Some with nanotechnology to reverse aging, others by replacing body parts as they wear out. The one thing that is required to undergo all of these treatments, however, is to be alive when they are developed. So, an interesting question can be posed: What is the year the separates the mortals who pass away before immortality is attained, and the immortals who are alive long enough to receive it?
This mythical year, the year where those born before it are unlikely to live long enough to achieve mortality, while those born after are more likely to, has been dubbed as Mansourâs Year. Itâs just a name I have given this concept. Perhaps someone else has already given it a name, but for now Iâll go with this.
So, what year is Mansourâs Year, you may be wondering? Well, until immortality is actually attained, itâs something that is impossible to truly define. We can however, make a few assumptions and approximations to try to find a few possible years. First off, we need a mathematical formula to calculate Mansourâs Year. In my preliminary crafting of this model, I have used the following factors:
b : The base year. Usually this is the current year.
r : The life expectancy rate of change per year. This can be a little tricky to define, but using the following data of life expectancy of the world, I found it to be anywhere from 0.2 to 0.4 year increase for every year. In other words, for every year that passes, on average people live an extra 0.4 years longer than the previous year.
c : This is the year the âcureâ for immortality is found and readily available for the general public, regardless of the method of immortality used.
e : The base life expectancy. This usually is the current life expectancy. However, it should be noted that if you used the world life expectancy rate for r, you should use the world life expectancy here. Similarly, if you want to examine a specific country like the U.S., use their respective values. While the 2016 life expectancy for the U.S. was found to be 78.6 years by the CDC, the WHO found the world life expectancy to be 72 in the same year.
Using these variables, we should be able to find M, otherwise known as Mansourâs Year. a formula to calculate this value has been derived to be:
Now that we can approximate when Mansourâs Year is by plugging in values. Of course, this formula is very far from being accurate. The numbers you can plug in are all estimations, guesses, and approximations, so take the Mansourâs Year you find with a grain of salt. Still, itâs fun to come up with some answers, so lets try.
Now, most of the sources I have listed below give the year that the immortality will be found to be between 2030 and 2050, so lets just say that 2040 is a safe bet. Using the current data for life expectancy, and the life expectancy rate for this year, I calculate that Mansourâs Year is around the year 1959! That may seem way too early, but remember that the world population life expectancy is growing constantly, so those born in 1959 are likely to live well into their 80s and 90s. Now, the first cures of immortality will most certainly be way too expensive for the general population. It would likely take 10 or more years for it to be affordable enough to be available to most people. So taking that into account, Mansourâs Year rises to around 1965, which seems much more possible.
Lastly, I want to share a modified form of the Mansourâs Year equation. If you want to know when the solution to immortality must be found so that those born a certain year (like perhaps the year you were born) will still be around to receive the cure, we can find that by simply rearranging the formula to:
Letâs do an example using this formula. Letâs say a person was born in 1995 and they wanted to know when a cure must be made in order for them to likely be around to receive it. Plugging in the values, I get my answer; the cure must be made by the year 2099. This is great, as someone born in 1995 has plenty of time to wait for a cure. If a cure wasnât available by the far off year of 2099, then this person would not have a good chance of becoming immortal.
This about wraps up my analysis and dissection of Mansourâs Year. I hope to further refine and experiment with this concept, and I hope you take the time to play around with the formula yourself. Try giving a negative life expectancy rate, or see if your friends and family may still be around when immortality inevitable becomes commonplace. Lastly, I know that this post and my last one havenât been specifically about FDVR. This is because I canât shake an idea in my head until I write about it. I am considering either expanding the scope of this blog or creating a second blog for non - FDVR topics. Thank you for understanding.
Until next time,
Caliburn
Sources:
 https://www.express.co.uk/news/science/781136/IMMORTALITY-google-ray-kurzweil-live-forever
https://www.thesun.co.uk/tech/5587710/how-to-live-forever/
https://www.livescience.com/6967-hang-25-year-wait-immortality.html
http://www.thatsreallypossible.com/immortality/
https://www.greekmythology.com/Myths/Elements/Ambrosia/ambrosia.html
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/databriefs/db293.pdf
http://www.who.int/gho/mortality_burden_disease/life_tables/situation_trends/en/















