I’ve been pondering on the idea of overshoot lately. Basically, the world is going to go way past 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels before (possibly, maybe) cooling things down later. So if that’s where we’re headed, then COP can’t be all about prevention anymore. It needs to shift its focus to managing the mess.
I think the whole COP process needs a do-over, and fast. Not just setting targets and making pledges, but figuring out what happens after we’ve already missed those targets. Of course that’s easier said than done, and we don’t want to make it seem like mitigation and adaptation efforts are futile because we won’t make it anyway. Rather, we need to be made to feel the urge to do even more. It’s uncomfortable for sure to admit we’re at the forefront of disaster, but the sooner we admit it and act upon it, the more comfortable and reassured we will be in the near future when disaster strikes.
COP30, being hosted in Brazil of all places, should be centered around adaptation, loss & damage, and climate justice. These can no longer be side conversations, these need to be the main agenda. Also, carbon removal and geoengineering aren’t abstract ideas anymore. They’re coming, and they need real governance. Who’s in charge? Who benefits? Who bears the risks?
Overshoot isn’t the end, but it does mean the beginning of a very different kind of climate politics. COP needs to catch up.













