Untitled

Trump's allies begin eyeing the exits.

June 1, 2026

Robert B. Hubbell

Over the last month, there has been a notable shift in Trump’s grip on the GOP and his cultish base. True, his support among self-identified “MAGA” supporters remains ridiculously high (80%), but he is losing ground among “Republicans” writ large and Republican-leaning Independents, and is losing the gains he generated among Latinos and Black Americans in 2024.

Before congressional Republicans fled D.C. in a panic ahead of the Memorial Day recess, they were unable to pass a reconciliation bill containing supplemental funding for ICE and Border Patrol for fear they would have to vote on amendments related to the $1.8 billion thug fund. Speaker Mike Johnson sent the House home after it appeared that enough Republicans would join Democrats to pass a War Powers Resolution.

Over the weekend, Trump’s stealth 80th birthday celebration, disguised as a 250th anniversary celebration of US independence, collapsed as entertainers canceled in droves. Trump initially suggested that he would fill in for the entertainers who withdrew, and (as of Sunday evening) is proposing to cancel the events entirely. As a result, it is not clear what celebrations will take place to commemorate the 250th anniversary of the US Declaration of Independence from Great Britain.

Per David Frum in The Atlantic, Trump’s 250th Celebration Is a Fiasco,

Trump’s effort to rebrand the semi-quincentennial as the Day of Trump left no time, budget, or effort available for the true purpose of the anniversary. As his own self-celebration has fizzled, a void has opened between the scheduled roster of events and the true purpose and meaning of the solemnity of July 4, 2026. This powerful date will go unmarked by any act of memory worthy of the nation.

As with most Trump failures, we must resist the temptation to gloat. His failures hurt America and its people. Celebrating 250 years of independence should be a moment of joy for all Americans. It is, instead, a mosh pit of narcissism, vulgarity, and decline-of-empire decadence.

More about the failed 250th celebration in a moment. Let’s look at the broader dynamic at work: The willingness of entertainers to disassociate themselves from a Trump command performance is part of a larger phenomenon. Indeed, the entertainers share the motivation of congressional Republicans in fleeing D.C. People are beginning to eye the exits, looking for ways to put distance between themselves and Trump’s increasingly unhinged, corrupt, narcissistic behavior.

We can see similar distancing across the administration. Over the weekend, the US attorney overseeing the prosecution of James Comey for posting an Instagram photo of seashells abruptly withdrew from the case. See The Guardian, Lead prosecutor withdraws from criminal case against James Comey.

Two weeks ago, the general counsel of the Treasury, Brian Morrissey, resigned within hours of the announcement of Trump’s $1.8 billion thug fund. Morrissey—a former Sidley Austin partner— is a respected lawyer who apparently values his long-term reputation more than his continued service in the Trump administration.

Morrissey’s resignation is part of a massive exodus of lawyers from the Trump administration. See NYTimes, Trump Administration Sees Striking Exodus of Legal Talent | The departure of more than 10,000 federal lawyers has left some agencies without sufficient staff and has boosted the ranks of state attorneys general offices and advocacy groups. (Gift article, accessible to all.)

Although the administration has added more than 3,000 lawyers in the last 16 months, the net losses are significant—affecting the Trump administration’s ability to perform the legal services necessary to support federal actions and defend Trump’s agenda.

The chart below is extracted from information in the NYTimes article, above:

The above chart understates the impact of the departures: Many senior attorneys with significant experience and policymaking expertise have departed, only to be replaced by junior attorneys whose main qualification appears to be party affiliation or involvement in the MAGA movement. See, e.g., The DOJ’s deeply unimpressive bench of MAGA lawyers is failing the easy part.

Thousands of lawyers are quitting to protect their reputations from association with the Trump administration, Congress is fleeing town to avoid votes to defend Trump’s thug fund, and entertainers whose careers could use a boost from a high-profile gig are all coming to the same conclusion: Trump is toxic and associating with him can damage your reputation.

The only entertainer who defended his decision to remain part of Trump’s birthday celebration was Vanilla Ice, who said, “I don’t take anything too serious. I don’t think anyone else should. . . . I don’t even vote, so I don’t even care. . . . I will go play for Putin, and I will play in Iran if you want.”

There can be no clearer indication that Trump is perceived as a loser than Vanilla Ice’s explanation of why he is willing to perform for Trump while other entertainers are not: “I will go play for Putin . . . I don’t even care.” When that becomes the criterion for working for Trump, the better path is to shut down the party.

Which is where Trump is as of Sunday evening. After a weekend of desperate and frenzied posting on Truth Social, Trump moved from “I alone can perform at the nation’s 250th celebration” to “Let’s just cancel the whole thing.”

In one of Trump’s posts on Truth Social on Sunday, he said:

We should have a giant MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN RALLY, for 250, instead of having overpriced singers, who nobody wants to hear, whose music is boring, and yet who do nothing but complain. Cancel it, just like I canceled my involvement with the failing and unsafe to be in Kennedy Center . . . .

Given that attack on the talent at the planned celebrations, it’s not clear why even the standardless Vanilla Ice would participate. (“Overpriced singers . . nobody wants to hear.”)

The chaos of the celebrations, caused by entertainers heading for the exit, is being exacerbated by the construction-zone mess at the White House and the National Mall. The bombed-out look of the mid-progress renovations is an apt symbol of Trump’s second term sixteen months after his inauguration.

The desire to create distance from Trump that is motivating entertainers, Republican members of Congress, and administration lawyers is only going to get worse, starting this week. Read on!

Trump will have to defend his thug fund this week.

Trump must provide a brief defending his thug fund by Friday, June 5, in one federal case, and June 12 in another. He will face two hearings: One to determine if the settlement was a fraud on the court and another to determine if the fund was created in violation of the Administrative Procedures Act (Hint: It was).

The defense of the thug fund will be an embarrassment. It was created through fraudulent collusion that violated Articles I, II, and III of the Constitution. Trump’s lawsuit against the IRS was time-barred and, therefore, worthless. The notion that it was worth $1.8 billion in a settlement is prima facie evidence that the settlement was fraudulent.

The fund is so corrupt that even some of Trump’s allies are urging him to find a path to walk away from the fund. See Kaitlin Collins, CNN, Trump’s ‘anti-weaponization fund’ is stalled, and some allies are urging him to scrap it entirely.

If Trump were smart (he is not), he would allow his case to be reopened solely to dismiss it without receiving any consideration in return. But Trump is likely to make a very bad situation worse by resisting any changes to his thug fund and release of scrutiny of 20 years of tax returns and tax payments.

The result will be greater efforts by allies to distance themselves from Trump as he attempts to defend the indefensible. As Josh Marshall of Talking Points Memo put it,

[Trump is] accelerating into the most toxic parts of his presidency. . . . doubling down on the most unpopular parts of his agenda — or things like the ballroom and slush fund that strain the term “agenda” — as his Capitol Hill majorities are going onto life support. . . . The New York Times put the matter this way in the sub-headline of a news analysis piece on May 23: “President Trump continues to act like he’s politically all-powerful, even in the face of indications that he is not.”

That disconnect—Trump’s belief that he is politically all-powerful even as he grows weaker by the day—explains much of his increasingly desperate decisions. We have him on the run. Rather than reacting in fear and anxiety at his latest outrage, we should recognize that his actions betray his desperation and fear, not his strength.

Concluding Thoughts

Nearly 50% of the questions submitted in advance of my Saturday livestream asked about the new US Post Office regulations implementing Trump’s voter-suppression executive order regarding mail ballots. That executive order directs the Post Office to limit mail ballots to voters on a federally created list of approved voters.

The executive order is illegal and unconstitutional. It will be struck down by the courts. The Constitution gives the president no authority over elections. Indeed, the SAVE Act contains a similar provision. A president cannot, by executive order, do that which Congress refuses to do under a constitutional grant of power. See Just Security, The Trump Administration’s Elections Executive Order is Unconstitutional.

Trump’s effort to suppress votes by using the Post Office is an act of desperation. We should see it as such. As noted in the NYTimes, above, “President Trump continues to act like he’s politically all-powerful, even in the face of indications that he is not.”

Of course, there is heavy lifting to be done by voting rights advocacy groups to invalidate the executive order and related Post Office regulations. But his earlier executive order attempting to regulate elections has been enjoined by several federal judges. The same reasoning would apply to the US Postal Service portion of the executive order.

Every time I cite to the law as a reason that we should have confidence that Trump will be constrained, someone asks a question that assumes that either Trump or the Supreme Court will ignore the Constitution. That is possible, but unlikely.

But, for the sake of argument, let’s assume that the US Supreme Court rules that there is a portion of the Constitution written in invisible ink that can be seen only when viewed under UV light and that the previously unknown provisions of the Constitution allow Trump to regulate elections.

What then? Do we give up? Do we assume that a significant limitation of mail ballots dooms us to failure?

No! If the rules change, however unfairly, we must adapt and push back. Voter suppression is a blunt instrument. If the Post Office must approve mail ballots, that restriction will apply to all voters. Democrats must simply do a better job of organizing voter turnout. We can do that. Democrats are better at GOTV efforts than are Republicans.

So, let’s trust our lawyers are better than Trump’s lawyers and that the executive order will be stricken. In the meantime, let’s have confidence in our ability to adapt to changed circumstances better than our Republican counterparts.

Trump is weak and desperate. His executive order on Postal Service mail ballots is a manifestation of his weakness and fear. We should respond with strength and confidence.

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