The DPS College Football Rankings

Shortly after Alabama raised the trophy from their overtime win over Georgia in the 2018 College Football Playoff National Championship game, we all began to see it. UCF, fresh off an undefeated season and a Peach Bowl win over SEC West Division winners Auburn, began a relentless recognition campaign of their season success, including a claim as "National Champions". Most snickered a little and thought it was cute. But the school persisted. Rings were made, parades occurred, merchandise flew off the shelves. UCF wasn't trying to be funny...they believed it.

We loved it. This situation falls right in the wheelhouse of our mission here at DPSRankings.com. Since day #1, we've been outspoken opponents of the current college football system, and all of the systems that came before this one. And we don't intend to rest until the system is fixed. It's about fear (money), fairness, and opportunity. We're not going to get into that debate right now, but it our firm belief that UCF did enough to earn the right to PLAY for the National Championship of Division 1-A college football. And guess what?  So did Georgia, Clemson, Oklahoma, and even eventual playoff champion Alabama.

Was UCF worthy? Most definitely they were. Forget what you've been trained about RANKINGS...which artificially keep you from believing they are. UCF finished the 2017 season as the #1 team in the land in the strength of victory component of our rankings. That's very significant. What does it mean? It means that the teams UCF beat won a lot of football games. Strength of Victory is a measure of the FBS winning percentage of the FBS teams you BEAT. UCF's conquered opponents were the most-winning of all teams in the land on average. That means the Knights won games against teams that won a lot of games. That's pure math....it's not debatable. (Note: Strength of Victory is slightly different than schedule strength, which is a measure of the power ranking of all teams on your schedule, whether you won the game against them or not) 

Sure, the Knights would have been significant underdogs every step of the way in a mythical 8-team playoff scenario that allowed them access. Just like they were against Auburn. Last time we checked UCF won that game.

It’s hard to believe 2017 is over now and we’re already wrapping up another great college football season and preparing for 2018. Congratulations to the Alabama Crimson Tide, (official) 2017 National Champions. 

Here are some of the final numbers from our DPSRankings.com computer ranking system. As always, our numbers and rankings are derived from FBSvsFBS game data only and are not the official NCAA rankings. 

In the “raw stats” section (below) it is interesting to see that total FBS offensive production was down fairly significantly compared to 2016. In a 2017 FBSvsFBS game, there were 25.4 fewer yards gained by both teams combined in an average game compared to 2016. 

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Rankings Section

2017 Total Offense

Oklahoma

Ohio State

Oklahoma State

Louisville

Penn State

UCF

Notre Dame

Memphis

Georgia

Arizona

2017 Total Defense

Clemson

Alabama

Wisconsin

Georgia

Michigan State

Michigan

TCU

Auburn

Ohio State

Washington

Most improved teams based on overall rank (2016 to 2017)

Florida Atlantic

UCF

Iowa State

Purdue

Fresno State

Largest declining teams based on overall rank (2016 to 2017)

Tulsa

Western Kentucky

Tennessee

BYU

Colorado

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Raw Statistics Section

Best Offensive Performers (per-game raw data)

Turnovers Committed - Alabama (0.62 pg)

Points Scored - UCF (46.2 pg)

Rushing - Navy (351.4 pg)

Passing - Oklahoma State (389.2 pg)

Total Yards - Oklahoma (579.6 pg)

Worst Offensive Performers (per-game raw data)

Turnovers Committed - San Jose State (3.33 pg)

Points Scored - Kent State (10.5 pg)

Rushing - Western Kentucky (57.6 pg)

Passing - Army (30.1 pg)

Total Yards - UTEP (231.7 pg)

Best Defensive Performers (per-game raw data)

Turnovers Forced - Wyoming (3.08 pg)

Points Allowed - Alabama (12.8 pg)

Rushing - Alabama (93.8 pg)

Passing - Michigan (150.1 pg)

Total Yards - Wisconsin (261.1 pg)

Worst Defensive Performers (per-game raw data)

Turnovers Forced - Rice (0.5 pg)

Points Allowed - ECU (46 pg)

Rushing - San Jose State (292.8 pg)

Passing - Connecticut (331.7 pg)

Total Yards - ECU (534.8 pg)

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Overall Per-Game FBS Numbers

Turnovers (both teams) - 3.04 pg (down 0.04 from 2016)

Points Scored (both teams) - 55.9 pg (down 2.2 from 2016 )

Rushing Yards Gained (both teams) - 341.9 pg (down 15.8 from 2016)

Passing Yards Gained (both teams) - 456.0 pg (down 9.6 from 2016)

Total Yards Gained (both teams) - 797.9 pg (down 25.4 from 2016)

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GSA(c) Section

There were a total of 1550 game grades given for the 2017 season (775 FBSvsFBS games) that fit roughly into a Gaussian distribution (bell curve). Here are the Top 10 individual game combined offense and defense GSA(c) of the season (the A-graded games so to speak, the most statistically dominant games of the year versus the expected outcome). Note the National Champs are the only team in the Top 10 twice:  

Best GSA(c) of the season

Alabama - for their 59-0 week 4 trouncing of Vanderbilt

Auburn - for their 40-17 week 11 win over SEC Champion Georgia

Ohio State - for their 48-3 week 11 win over Michigan State

Louisville - for their 56-10 week 12 win over Syracuse

Iowa - for their stunning 55-24 week 10 thumping of Ohio State

Alabama - for their 66-3 week 5 smackdown of Ole Miss

USF - for their 43-7 week 4 win over Temple

Appalachian State - for their 34-0 Dollar General Bowl win over Toledo

Notre Dame - for their 49-14 week 8 thumping of USC

Duke - for their 41-17 week 2 blasting of Northwestern

Worst GSA(c) in a WINNING effort

- Hawaii’s only conference win of the year, in week 7 versus San Jose State 37-26, was not an impressive one statistically. The Rainbow Warriors were outgained by a miserable Spartans’ offense 504-451. Despite the win, this game earned a D- for Hawaii, and was the #1501 GSA(c) of the year (out of 1550). 

Best GSA(c) in a LOSING effort

- USC in their 7-24 Cotton Bowl loss to Ohio State. The Trojans outgained the Buckeyes 413-277, had 23 first downs to Ohio State’s 13, and had 356 yards through the air. But four turnovers did the Trojans in. This game was the second-best GSA(c) of the year for USC despite the loss, and was the 75th-best GSA(c) overall (out of 1550).

Here are the final (post bowl games) 2017 season conference records in out-of-conference games versus Power-5 teams. 

As you can see in the first table above (click on table to expand for better viewing)...the B1G, whose champion was ironically not invited to the playoff, had the best record in OOC games vs. the Power-5 for the 2017 season. Every other conference, yes including the SEC, was pretty pedestrian against Power-5 competition. 

Versus the 5 BEST teams in a particular Power-5 conference

Pure numbers are nice, but how did each conference do against the BEST of the P5? (not just the lower-tier teams in a P5 conference)

The second table above is each conference’s final overall record in out-of-conference games versus any of the 5 highest-ranked teams in a Power-5 conference (according to the final DPS rankings).  

For example, the American Conference (AAC) was 1-4 against the best of the P5, and that 1 win was UCF’s “National Championship” win over Auburn, the 3rd best team in the SEC according to the DPS. 

As you can see, the PAC-12 finished the season without a win over a team that finished the season as one of the 5 best teams in P5 conference. (Note: Texas finished 7th-best in the Big 12)  

Well folks, it’s here already, the 2017 (season) College Football Playoff National Championship (yeah, we know it’s called 2018 officially). This season will mark a first for the CFBPlayoff, matching two teams from a single conference in the final. The top-rated conference in college football, the SEC, will boast both participants in this season’s Championship Game despite being down a bit in terms of overall across-the-conference team strength this season. The SEC Champion Georgia Bulldogs will be the “home” team, both based on seeding and location, when they take on the second-place finishers of the SEC West, the Alabama Crimson Tide. Alabama has been to all four invitationals now and this will be their third straight appearance in the final game. This is also the third straight final with two teams from the southeastern United States. Yep, we love our college football down here in the South and we play it pretty well. 

Both teams are roughly mirror images of each other, as shown by our statistical side-by-side above (click on the chart to expand for better viewing). Both have studs in the offensive backfield, powerful offensive lines, top-rated rushing offenses, mediocre passing attacks, and top-5 defenses that get after quarterbacks and destroy their opponent’s rushing attack. The key to this game seems to be which of the quarterbacks will have the better day throwing downfield. Georgia’s Jake Fromm may be the better pure passer, but Alabama’s experienced signal-caller Jalen Hurts is equally effective as a big-play creator and comes in with 808 rushing yards to go along with his 17 passing TDs. Neither QB turns the ball over much, Fromm with only 5 interceptions and Hurts with a ridiculous 1 on the year.    

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Common opponents

These SEC brothers had only 4 common opponents in 2017, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Mississippi State, and Auburn. Alabama went 3-1 against those common foes, with their loss coming in the Iron Bowl against Auburn...saving the Tide from having to play that extra game in Atlanta. Georgia was 4-1 against those common opponents, famously avenging their blowout loss to Auburn in that extra game that Alabama didn’t have to play. 

Georgia scored an average of 32.4 points against common opponents and gave up an average of 12.8

Alabama scored an average of 37.3 points against common opponents and gave up an average of 14.3.

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The Predictions

Las Vegas has Alabama installed as roughly a 3.5 point favorite and predicts a low-scoring game. (44.5 Over/Under) 

Our computer disagrees on both counts, strangely predicting a very close win by Georgia in a fairly high scoring contest with a lot of rushing success by both teams:

Score

Alabama 29

Georgia 31 

Rushing yards

Alabama 242

Georgia 240

Passing yards

Alabama 196

Georgia 180

We would be stunned if the final numbers are even close to these predictions by our computer. After all, Alabama has not given up 200 yards rushing once this year and has held 8 teams below 100 yards. Georgia has given up 200+ yards only twice, including in last week’s Rose Bowl to Oklahoma (ironically exactly 242 yards, the same number the computer predicts Alabama will get). 

Here’s the look at which teams had the 10 best combined grades from the 2017 bowl season (per our GSA(c) grading system). 

Best Grades - Bowl Season 2017

Appalachian State - 34-0 win over Toledo in the Hawai’i Bowl - Underdog App State dominated the MAC Champs and held them to 146 total yards in one of the more perplexing outcomes of the bowl season. 

Navy - 49-7 win over Virginia in the Military Bowl - Virginia returned the opening kick for a TD and it was all downhill from there. Backup QB Zach Abey set a record with 5 TDs. 

Louisiana Tech - 51-10 win over SMU in the Frisco Bowl - LA Tech took advantage of Chad Morris’ departure and forced 6 turnovers en route to this 41-point drubbing. 

Florida Atlantic - 50-3 win over Akron in the Boca Raton Bowl - Lane Kiffin turned FAU around with a vengeance in 2017 and was the biggest favorite of the bowl season. FAU topped off their turnaround season with an easy home win over over-matched Akron, winning the total yardage battle 582-146.  

Alabama - 24-6 playoff win over Clemson in the Sugar Bowl. My alma mater was favored by many of the experts but the Tigers couldn’t solve the dominant Alabama defense. Bama only had 261 total yards but their defense kept the often-potent Tiger offense to only 188, their lowest total in years. 

USC - 7-24 loss to Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl - USC outgained favorite Ohio State 413-277 but had 4 crushing turnovers. 

Michigan State - 42-17 win over Washington State in the Holiday Bowl - Playoffs notwithstanding, it was a great bowl season for the B1G. Michigan State contributed with a domination of a decent Washington State team behind 3 TDs from QB Brian Lewerke.  

Georgia - 54-48 overtime win over Oklahoma in the Rose Bowl. This overtime thriller was widely considered the best of the bowl season, mainly because Georgia could not figure out how to stop Oklahoma until the second half. Huge chunk plays were abundant in this one, and Georgia prevailed by blocking an OT field goal attempt. 

UCF - 34-27 win over Auburn in the Peach Bowl - UCF showed (again) that the best of the “Group of 5″ can play with the big boys, and used 116 yards and nearly 9 yards per carry from McKenzie Milton to take out the SEC West winners, finishing 13-0 and “National Champs”. 

Here are the DPS rankings for the four #CFBPlayoff participants of 2016 and 2017. These are their offensive and defensive rankings entering the bowl season according to our metrics. 

2016

Alabama - Offense 6 Defense 1

Clemson (Champion) - Offense 8 Defense 16

Ohio State - Offense 4 Defense 2

Washington - Offense 10 Defense 7

2017

Clemson - Offense 23 Defense 1

Oklahoma - Offense 1 Defense 40

Georgia - Offense 10 Defense 3

Alabama - Offense 15 Defense 4

Our computer has Alabama and Georgia winning their semi-finals to set up an all-SEC National Championship final. It’s ironic that despite what Paul Finebaum says, per the numbers the SEC is definitely way down this year in terms of overall team computer rankings, but could still wind having both participants in the final. That’s a down year that a lot of conferences would take in a heartbeat.

In the final game the computer gives Georgia the nod as a slim favorite to get their first National Championship since Hershel Walker was a dominant freshman way back in 1980.

Note: The computer is 1-2 (33%) at picking the eventual playoff champion, however the predicted champion going into the playoff has made the final game in all 3 seasons. If that short history holds true, it would be bad news for Oklahoma fans:

2014 - Predicted winner Ohio State, Actual Winner Ohio State

2015 - Predicted winner Clemson, Actual Winner Alabama

2016 - Predicted winner Alabama, Actual Winner Clemson

The mythical 2017 DPS Playoffs are set. If DPSRankings.com were king of the world, instead of talking until we’re blue about “resumes” and “bodies of work”, we’d have first round playoff games this weekend in four FBS college football towns. How awful would that be?

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First round games:

#12 seed Wisconsin gets a save from their loss in the B1G Championship and would travel to Norman for a first round game against the #5 seed, Big 12 Champion Oklahoma. (we’ll explain later)

 #11 seed Auburn would also get a reprieve from their SEC Championship loss, and have to travel to Orlando for a first round date with the #6 seed, American Conference Champ UCF.

#10 seed Washington would travel to Tuscaloosa and play a first round game with #7 seed Alabama.  

#9 seed Notre Dame would travel to Happy Valley for a date with #8 seed Penn State. 

The top 4 seeds, Georgia, Ohio State, USC, and Clemson would be sitting home with bye weeks.

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How the seeds were determined. 

The champion of any top 5 conference, as determined by their conference’s out-of-conference winning percentage against all other FBS conferences, receive the dreaded automatic bids. Yep, even if they have several losses like Ohio State. Seeding is simply sequential based on their conference’s winning percentage. Perhaps we amend our rules to add a caveat to drop Ohio State to #5 due to their regular season loss to a qualifying top 5 conference champion. That caveat would put Ohio State at #5 and make them play an additional game. Oklahoma, who of course beat Ohio State, would slide up to #4 and receive a bye. Sounds logical to us. 

Non-top-5 conference champions must be in the top 15 of the final ranking to qualify for the next seed (#6). UCF met that requirement and is in at #6. 

Our last spotlight matchup of championship week is the first Big 12 Championship game since 2010, featuring DPS #2 Oklahoma and DPS #10 TCU. Oklahoma QB Baker Mayfield seems to be a lock for the Heisman win or lose as he has guided the nation’s #1 offense to some gaudy numbers this season. Oklahoma is also a lock for the College Football Playoff with any kind of victory today. Unfortunately TCU’s only realistic role in this game is spoiler, because it seems the powers-that-be are not likely to think the Horned Frogs are worthy of a shot even with a convincing win over the Sooners. Makes a lot of sense, right? 

Here’s our computer predictions for this weekend’s Power-5 championship games, including tonight’s Pac-12 Championship. Note that the computer does not take injuries such as the one to Auburn’s RB Kerryon Johnson into account.  

Our 4th spotlight matchup of championship week is today’s Pac-12 Championship between DPS #14 Stanford and DPS #18 USC. Again we don’t have time for a detailed breakdown essay on this game, but we will say the winner should have as much right to play in the “invitational” as anybody should.

The Pac-12 has been completely excluded from the national conversation for some time now, yet based on our computer data there isn’t a large chasm between a potential Pac-12 Champion and the rest of the potential playoff field. While it is true that our rankings in the categories that indicate probable “best teams” (game grades (GSA(c)) and H2H predictor rankings) are lower for both of these teams than many other potential playoff teams, in the categories that determine the “most deserving” teams, schedule strength and strength-of-victory (SOV), both of these teams are roughly on-par with most of the field. There isn’t the large chasm that has been portrayed nationally and has conveniently excluded this conference from the too-small four team invitational conversation. In real terms the winner of this game has zero shot at the College Football Playoff trophy...and to us that will never be right. 

We don’t have time for a fancy writeup on spotlight matchup #3...the ACC Championship. Sorry, remember this is a zero income blog, not a real job...and sometimes real life gets in the way of our hobby. :)

Our second spotlight matchup of championship week is the SEC Championship, which for the first time since 1993 will not be played in the recently-imploded Georgia Dome. The venue will be new, and the matchup will also be a new one for the SEC Championship. This will be the sixth time Georgia and Auburn have made it to the title game, but the first time they will match up against each other for all the marbles. And this season there are some big marbles at stake. The winner will make the College Football Playoff, and the loser will be left to wonder what could have been. 

These two teams employ similar strategies to win football games. Both rely on their strong offensive lines and extremely talented backs to wear down opponents and limit their offensive chances. SEC East winner Georgia has one of the most talented and productive tandems in football in Nick Chubb (1098 yards, 13 TDs, 6.2 yards per attempt) and Sony Michel (903 yards, 13 TDs, 7.3 yards per attempt). Auburn counters with an powerful defensive front, one of the best in the country. The Tigers #4-ranked defense (per the DPS) only gives up 128.4 yards per game on the ground (good for 21st nationally), so they will make life difficult for young Bulldog QB Jake Fromm (1990 yards, 19 TDs, 5 Ints, 62.0% completion percentage). 

The story is much the same when Auburn has the ball, with one exception. Although not as explosive as the Georgia backs, Auburn also boasts an excellent trio of bruising-style running backs. The Tigers have been led by superstar Kerryon Johnson (1276 yards, 17 TDs, 5.1 yards per attempt), who unfortunately went down with a shoulder issue last week and may not be close to his usual effectiveness. Kerryon was dominant in the Tigers’ big win over the Bulldogs earlier in the year, so if he is limited it would have been up to backup Kam Martin (409 yards, 2 TDs, 6.4 YPA) or Kamryn Pettway (305 yards, 6 TDs, 4.0 YPA). But both of those guys are banged-up too. Johnson’s health will be a big key. With or without Johnson, the Bulldog defensive front is very effective at stuffing the run, so it could be down to QB Jarrett Stidham to provide the difference for Auburn. Stidham has 2682 yards, 16 TDs, and a 68.5% completion percentage against only 4 interceptions, and his confidence has grown throughout the season.

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Common opponents

Of course these two teams have had one major common opponent, each other. Auburn won that week 11 game against the at-the-time #1 ranked Bulldogs 40-17. 

Besides themselves, there have only been two common opponents, Mississippi State and Missouri. Both teams won both of those games, by an average score of 42-15.5 for Georgia and 50-12 for Auburn. Auburn had the better overall GSA(c) (game grade) in the Mississippi State game while Georgia did better against Missouri. 

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The number

Las Vegas has Auburn installed as a 2.5 point favorite in this one. The DPSRankings.com game selector also gives the nod to Auburn, by 3 points.

Can you believe it’s already Championship Week in FBS college football (insert crying emoji)? That means it’s already time for our championship statistical spotlights. 

First up is the showdown at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis between B1G East winner Ohio State, currently #8 in our DPSRankings.com Top 25, and unbeaten B1G West winner #6 Wisconsin. The Badgers are certain to be higher ranked than our computer’s #6 when this week’s College Football Playoff rankings are released, but as always we report only what our computer says to report. Also in the real world of the CFB Playoff the Buckeyes seem to be the most likely of the two-loss candidates to get the nod from the committee if they are able to win this game. If that occurs, it will be another year of contradiction for a broken too-small playoff system, but that’s another argument for another time (Nittany Lions fans can attest that a bad loss was used against them in 2016).

Let’s talk a little more about those two-loss Buckeyes. How can a potential B1G Champion Ohio State squad really be considered a contender for the playoff after two blowout losses? Well, it’s most likely because even with the two bad days the Buckeyes are a statistical darling in terms of efficiency and ‘game control’. This is illustrated in the last row of our chart above. Despite a relatively soft schedule (#59) and meh #11 ranking in the strength-of-victory (SOV) component, the Buckeyes are #1 in the nation in average overall GSA(c) (game grade) and the head-to-head predictor (H2H) component. In real terms this means the computer says that despite not being overly deserving, the Buckeyes are one of the four best teams in America. So we ask again, do you REALLY want the four best teams in the playoffs?? Deserving and best can be two different things...as illustrated by the Ohio State/Penn State comparison last year. Enough about that...let’s talk about the stats.   

As you can see from our statistical side-by-side above (click on the chart to expand for better viewing), the Buckeyes are a force to be reckoned with on offense. The DPS grade for their offense is #2, and that is based primarily on the production of the Ohio State running game. Running back J.K. Dobbins exploded on the scene back in September and has produced 1190 yards, 7 TDs, and 7.3 yards per attempt on the ground. That’s getting in done. But the quarterback J.T. Barrett and tailback Mike Weber have also both added over 600 yards. But the Buckeyes’ strength plays right into the hand of the awesome Wisconsin defense. The Badgers are #1 in the land in points and rushing yards allowed, so they will not be intimidated. Wisconsin gives up a measly 2.61 yards per rush attempt, good for #1 in the nation. So when Ohio State has the ball, the running game is a wash....

Barrett did add a 66.2% completion percentage and 33 passing TDs to the formidable Buckeye attack. But the Badgers counter that production with some impressive production of their own, only allowing 156.4 yards per game through the air. Barrett is probable for this game though with a knee, so It is yet to be seen if freshman Dwayne Haskins, who came off the bench to beat the Wolverines, can get it done again in the pressure-packed championship scenario against the #1 defense in all the land in Wisconsin.  Bottom line, when Ohio State is on offense, it’s a draw...

When the unbeaten Badgers are on offense, you can expect a similar run bias. After a short hiatus Wisconsin is back to dominating on the ground, and are #7 in the country in rushing attempts. The Badgers rip off 243+ yards per game on the ground primarily using their excellent tailback Jonathan Taylor. Taylor has lit up opposing defenses for 1806 yards, 13 TDs, and 7 yards per attempt. This game will feature some serious playmakers at the running back position. Quarterback Alex Hornibrook never runs the ball, but he has added 2157 yards and 21 TDs through the air (63.9% completion percentage). His issue has been turnovers, with 13 interceptions putting pressure on the Badger defense. Ohio State counters with a solid defense that is ranked #12 in the nation by the DPS. The defensive front of the Buckeyes is widely regarded as one of the best in the FBS, and they will need to be on their game to stop Taylor on Saturday night. 

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Common opponents

These teams have had six common opponents. Ohio State is 5-1 against common opponents and Wisconsin is 6-0. The difference of course is the debacle against Iowa for Ohio State. Wisconsin beat Iowa 38-14 while Ohio State got trounced by Iowa 55-24.

Offense vs common opponents’ averages (team that did better in bold)

Scoring - OSU +16.9, Wisconsin +5.7

Rushing - OSU +40.7, Wisconsin +56.5

Passing - OSU +15.2, Wisconsin -47.1   

Defense vs common opponents’ averages

Scoring - OSU -0.8, Wisconsin -10.3

Rushing - OSU -45.1, Wisconsin -50.6

Passing - OSU -0.1, Wisconsin -41.6

So as you can see Wisconsin’s defense was way better against common opponents, while Ohio State is better overall offensively. 

In terms of GSA(c): Ohio State had a better overall GSA(c) (game grade) against Indiana, Maryland, Nebraska, and Illinois...while Wisconsin had the better grade against Iowa and Michigan. 

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The number

Las Vegas has installed the Ohio State Buckeyes as 6 point favorites over the Badgers. The DPS computer game selector, which does not account for injuries or public bias, is roughly in-line with this prediction, having the Buckeyes favored by 7 points.

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It should be a very good game Saturday night and the winner may be moving on to the playoffs (if it’s Wisconsin it’s pretty much a lock). We’re looking forward to this old-school slugfest in a battle of great running games versus stout defensive fronts. 

Obviously there was a big shakeup in the rankings after last week’s #1 and #2 teams both lost, and now two-loss Auburn takes over the computer’s top spot going into championship weekend. Alabama dropped all the way down to #5 and Miami dropped way down to #9 with their losses. The computer still isn’t giving unbeaten Wisconsin the love they probably deserve, and in fact still has the #6 Badgers as underdogs to DPS #8 Ohio State in this week’s B1G Championship. Clearly our computer gives too much credit to teams that statistically smash their opposition as opposed to just efficiently winning the games without a lot of flair. Either that or it doesn’t like cheese.

The 2017 Iron Bowl, featuring DPS #1 Alabama at DPS #6 Auburn, is one of our Weekly Spotlight Matchups of week 13. This game is back to being a critical game in the national spotlight for both teams, not just a stepping stone for Alabama on the way to another championship game. Auburn’s improvement, particularly on offense over last year...makes this game must-watch college football programming again. We’re certain the game will garner a much larger number than the 2016 game did in terms of viewership.

This year the Alabama and Auburn are back to being near twins statistically, so this should be a strength-on-strength battle. Both teams have stout defenses full of NFL talent. They prevent scoring, stuff the run, and get after quarterbacks (click on the side-by-side stat chart above to expand for better viewing). Alabama is #1 in the country in defensive grade (per the DPS), and also #2 in rushing defense. The Tide is giving up only 85.5 yards per game on the ground, and the Tigers are also good 120.3 yards per game (19th nationally). Alabama’s scoring defense is #1 nationally, giving up only 11.2 points per game, while Auburn only gives up a few more at 17.3...good for #11 nationally. Life will be tough on the offenses in this game.

As usual, both offenses are designed to run the ball on early downs to limit risky situations that result in bad plays. In fact, in 22 combined FBS games, these two teams have turned the ball over just 14 times combined (5 for Alabama (#1) and 9 for Auburn (#9)). That’s a ridiculously low number for game twelve and a big reason why both teams have the opportunity that is front of them nationally.

To limit bad situations for their defenses, these teams run the ball early and often. Both pile up big yards on the ground...led by super-runners Damien Harris (855 yards) and QB Jalen Hurts (686 yards) for Alabama and Kerryon Johnson (1172 yards) for Auburn. Alabama is #8 in the country in rushing yards per game (270.8) and Auburn isn’t far behind at #12 (253.8). Auburn’s QB Jarrett Stidham isn’t the runner that Hurts is, but he has run the ball 70 times and has 3 TDs on the ground.

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Common opponents

Alabama went 5-0 against the teams’ common opponents, while Auburn went 4-1. The difference was Auburn’s bad second half against LSU, where the Tigers fell 23-27. In general, statistically Auburn did better offensively against common opponents while Alabama did better defensively, as shown by the below statistics:

Vs Common opponents (bold team did better)

Record - Alabama 5-0, Auburn 4-1

Points scored - Alabama 37.8, Auburn 42

Points against - Alabama 13, Auburn 21.4

Vs Common opponents’ averages (averages of departure from average)

Scoring offense - Alabama +9.1, Auburn +13.3

Rushing offense - Alabama +66.5, Auburn +88.3

Passing offense - Alabama -10, Auburn +37

Scoring defense - Alabama -16, Auburn -7.6

Rushing defense - Alabama -82.7, Auburn -35

Passing defense - Alabama -35.3, Auburn -3.9

GSA(c): Auburn had a better overall GSA(c) (game grade) against Texas A&M, Arkansas, and Mississippi State.... while Alabama had a better GSA(c) against Ole Miss and LSU.

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The number -- The computer calls an upset

Alabama is currently installed as a 5-point favorite over Auburn in Las Vegas. According to the our DPSRankings.com game selecting computer, Auburn is favored by 2.5 points. That should be good news for Alabama fans...but why?

While our computer is historically more accurate straight-up than Vegas in very close spread games (<3), when the Tuesday morning spread is between 3 and 6 points, historically the Vegas favorite wins the game more often than the DPS favorite does. (Vegas => 64% correct straight-up, DPS => 57% correct straight-up)

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As expected their wasn’t a lot of movement in the DPSRankings.com computer Top 25 this week given the full plate of cupcakes on tap for many of the top teams. The computer did swap #1 and #2, with Alabama swapping with Miami to take back the #1 slot. This move wasn’t based on anything Alabama did this week against Mercer, because as you know the DPS does not count games versus FCS competition. 

In the real world moving from #1 to #2 is a big deal, but in our computer rankings it means nothing because the DPS was designed way back in day to seed teams for a 12 team playoff. In all likelihood Miami would still be in position to qualify for the mythical DPS playoffs no matter if they won or lost against DPS #4 Clemson. However, in the DPS playoffs winning or losing would still matter a lot, because a loss would mean no bye week and an additional game against top competition.

In the DPS playoff scenario...the key battles would be for the automatic qualifying positions as top 5 conference champions and at the #15 spot. That’s the spot that a champion of a non-top-5 conference would have to be at or above to qualify for the playoffs. Unbeaten UCF is the team that is in that qualifying position right now. The Knights have to close the deal but if they did they would be in qualifying position for the playoffs if the DPS ruled the world. 

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Here’s an update on the biggest movers since the end of last season up through week 11 of the 2017 college football season, as measured by our average overall GSA(c) metric (i.e. individual game grades). It’s no coincidence that the teams on the positive movers list shown here are all coached by guys whose names seem to be mentioned hourly for open Power 5 positions. It’s also no surprise that one of those open Power 5 positions is a team in the biggest negative movers list.

Biggest positive movers (average overall GSA(c))

Florida Atlantic

Iowa State

Purdue

UCF

Fresno State 

Biggest negative movers (average overall GSA(c))

Tulsa

Western Kentucky

BYU

Temple