It might be in Russian but more importantly this political comedy is in my HEART - vasiyuri - fanartist, fic writer, photo/video editor and animator \\ i reply from winterbirb
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i have such a love for characters who descend into madness or villainy out of deep, deep empathy. characters who fundamentally cannot cope with the cruel realities they find themselves in and blow up about it in spectacular fashion. fallen angel type characters with tears of outrage in their eyes. characters who break before they bend, and break so badly they splatter blood all over their noble ideals. every variation on it gets me so good
Yeahhh I've tried to be canon-compliant as much as possible, but this entire G7 meeting needs completely rewritten. It's painfully terrible. Is this really how the producers thought diplomacy goes, or did they just dumb it down for the audience?
THE G7 ISN'T A MILITARY PACT this is absurd where are the arguments. Are these the leaders or is it a ministerial meeting. If it's ministerial, why isn't everyone in a stressed out phone call with their country's leader. Is someone speaking Russian? Wait, now I have to count heads—Okay, only 7.
The freaking out about the nuclear plants tracks, I think the G8 ministerial about Syria was about chemical weapons and the rise of terrorism in the region. AFAIK military intervention wasn't what was being discussed but rather getting everyone on the same page about a situation turning into a crisis.
Although, arguably, the situation in Syria and the way it devolved might have hardened the G7 up a little bit so it saw some of the same warning signs and was like "NOPE ABSOLUTELY NOT"
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I know I've made a post like this before but now that I'm seriously revisiting the series (with the specific intent of figuring out a timeline) this is how I'd plot things out.
This is gonna be long, I'm not sure how to best organize it. Some important stuff is in later points.
• First, s03 is getting sent to 2015-2016, not 2019. It's impossible for Obama to have been president during s01 if s03 was three years later. I completely understand the real-world decision (it was released in 2018, likely as a lead-in to the 2019 presidential campaign), but it just isn't going to work here.
• A Hillary Clinton-like figure is seen at the G7 meeting, so I'm going to have Vasya's reinstatement (in order to unify Ukraine) happen in (early?) 2017.
• The initial election of Goloborodko is in the pre-Maidan election year of 2015, March 29th if we're going to be specific. This is because Yanukovych wasn't ousted—in fact, he wasn't even President. And Vasya's predecessor clearly didn't run away, likely because Chuiko convinced him not to.
• Speaking of: Chuiko's existence is a HUGE difference between SotP and OTL (our timeline). He's been an institution of power for 25 years (in 2015) with an amazing eye for keeping things stable. The Orange Revolution obviously still happened, and so did the Euromaidan, but in this tl I'm going to have him be instrumental in smoothing over Russia's geopolitical anxieties. Just imagine Yuri's smooth assurances to a frenzied Kremlin official that no, there was no CIA coup, he's even still the Prime Minister, everything is still in place, it's fine.
🇷🇺 Russia stuff:
• s03 references Russian occupation, but it wasn't referenced in previous seasons (to my knowledge). I'm going to say the Crimea gambit happened after Yuri and Vasya were both out; it was being planned since Yuri's arrest, but it was Vasya leaving that really sealed the deal. Luhansk and Donetsk weren't little-green-men'd until Ukraine balkanized in s03. Why not right away, like IRL? Well...
• I'm going to make Surkov the Russian president. IRL, rumor has it he was behind the Crimea thing (which was almost entirely bloodless) but had conflict with the L/DPR leadership (specifically Girkin). After Ukraine balkanizes, though, they become Russian protectorates.
• Prior to becoming president (at the end of s01, the phone call), he was the Russian Ambassador to Ukraine (hence why Vasya knows him). This is because without the Orange Revolution freaking out the Kremlin in 2004, his responsibilities were different than OTL and overall he wasn't targeted by as much Kremlin insecurity. AFAIK the Russian MFA strongly prefers career diplomats to political appointees, and this is seen by some as a move by the Kremlin to keep an eye on the MFA, or at least keep its neighbor under a tight watch by giving the position to a Kremlin loyalist.
• Khodorkovsky returns to Russia when Surkov becomes president. He's a minor character, a former-oligarch with some of Vasya's ideals (and stubbornness)
• He's VERY different from Surikov, but for that window where Surikov's president (and when he was PM) if someone says one name people will often be like "which one?!"
• Also, Sergei Viktorovich Lavrov and Sergei Viktorovich Mukhin. This causes some amusement among diplomats who've naturalized to the patrynomic system. Speaking of diplomats...
🇺🇸 US Diplomacy
• The US is studiously not mentioned. This means I can get away with lots :3
• The US is generally treated as a partner more powerful but also much more distant than the EU. Nonetheless, I'm going to have its diplomats behave a bit better and more interestingly than how the EU is portrayed.
• Quick timeline stuff: in 2015-2016, the US is mainly dealing with the Middle East (ISIS, the Iran Deal, Israel diplomacy). It was also investing a lot of effort in fighting international money laundering/corruption. For this reason, the FBI (through the Kyiv Embassy) is going to be working with Mika. I genuinely don't know if the SBU has the ability to access the info to implicate Surikov in freezing Yuri's bank accounts, but I'll have US intel give Mika a hand, or at least corroborate info.
• Bill Burns will be appointed US Ambassador to Ukraine a week or so (bc of Congressional authorization) after Goloborodko is elected. [He served as Ambassador to Russia from 2005-2008, and then as the Under Secretary for Eastern Europe, and then as Deputy Secretary, working on the Iran Deal.] Slightly awkwardly, he retired in Nov. 2014... so he would have come out of retirement in March/April 2015 to be appointed (does that make him a political appointee?). It's clear this wasn't a routine promotion but a specific choice.
• He's chosen to keep an eye on the situation and report back. Both on the internal situation in Ukrainian politics, and also what the Russians are saying/doing. In my timeline 2014 didn't boil over, but it's tense and making watchers in the US nervous.
• US diplomacy remains publicly very distant—no high profile visits during Vasya's brief tenure. This is to everyone's benefit. Obama does like Vasya and empathizes with having a shit congress. Perhaps once Vasya deals with enough of the Horrors he'll meet Barack on equal(ly fucking exhausted) terms and they'll hit it off.
• Burns, however, listens very intently to what the Gang of Five (Oksana, Sergei, Olga, Mika, Ivan) tells him.
• Burns is dismissed as Ambassador by President Surikov, who doesn't trust him getting along well with Vasya + crew. Publicly, to avoid drama, he resigns his post "of his own free will." The Embassy, however, will work just fine without him :)
• Burns recognizes the character flaws of Vasya and his cabinet but still highly recommends them. He's a reason Pres. Clinton works w/ the G7 to reinstate him. Russia (still under Surkov) is also supportive of his reinstatement because the whole thing's an absolute clusterfuck. However, everyone agrees that Yuri is also necessary; he and Vasya are both missing something vitally important by themselves. China, working on its Belt and Road Initiative, also wants the country to not be in pieces.
• Every time Vasya or someone in his cabinet (probably Sergei) stand up for themselves, US diplomats are more comfortable with them. Sycophants are deeply untrustworthy. It's easy to predict what someone will do if they genuinely want the best for their country; purely selfish motives are much less easy to negotiate with.
💸The Oligarchs💸
• Nemchuk kicks off everything with his suggestion the oligarchs stay out of the remaining 2015 campaign. He's also the least contentious of the three. If anyone is going to see the utility of addressing corruption in order to have more stability & contact with Western corporations, it's going to be him. He's also the most like Khodorkovsky's businessman past-self and will get along with him (and thus Russian Pres. Surkov) the best.
• 50/50 chance Burns (maybe along with the Russians) is part of an Iran Deal backchannel. Not only would this piss off some government officials, but Roizman and Mamatov would probably get in another hissy fit, unless Crimea Tatars are Sunni factionalists enough to be on generally bad terms with Iran (the main Shia superpower). Although I wouldn't put it past either Roizman to say something generalizing and Mamatov to get heated. Nemchuk is just done with everyone's shit.
• Nemchuk saw the Khodorkovsky arrest back in 2003 and went "abso-fucking-lutely not."
One last thing:
• After Goloborodko's IMF speech, John Oliver made a video about the IMF's predatory policies.
It's also worth noting that in the opening shot of s01e01, it's Nemchyk who proposes the triumvirate just... chills out for a bit and lets the election go where it may
He resembles Khodorkovsky a bit in expression + glasses, he doesn't seem to demonstrate the same idealism but I'd guess he also has a similar business sense oriented towards reforming his company from the 90s-tyoe practices to a more Western corporate model for the sake of productivity and international business.
He obviously has his faction of deputies but doesn't seem to have as many outright governors/mayors etc as the other two
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Tonight, I'm finally finished my work. This is the twenty-nineth painting of Dear, United Kingdom. A Ukrainian man of Armenian descent is Mikhail Ashotovich Tasunyan from Servant of the People and he's one of Vasily Petrovich's friends.
Behind him, I painted a tricolour background of red, blue and apricot for him to represent his Armenian heritage, the Republic of Armenia and its national flag.
Mikhail Ashotovich Tasunyan from Servant of the People - 31st July 2023
Like, uh, sowwy~ but researching politicians since 2020 means I've been RESEARCHING POLITICIANS SINCE 2020. That's a whole two years (without wartime info-manipulation!) for me to go, "hey, let's see what the situation was in 2014 with the American diplomats! Hey, let's see what the global situation is! Hey, let's see what Russia's doing!"
Like, teehee, sowwyyyyy for not only knowing about Zelenskyy. But I've been here too fucking long for that.
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Like, sorry to be blunt, but writing off diplomacy kills people. An unwillingness to compromise or, at the very least, think of some, any sort of solution that addresses the concerns of the "enemy"... fucking kills people.
I don't know. I'm sick of drafted soldiers being used as cannon fodder because the Ukrainian MFA is too fucking incompetent to know how basic diplomacy works (and then blames the lack of diplomacy on the ACTUAL PROFESSIONALS doing their ACTUAL FUCKING JOBS, KULEBA).
And, like, Sergei Lavrov IS A GODDAMN PROFESSIONAL. He worked in the US for ~20 years and he's maintained those contacts. He's made even more contacts, and a name for himself as an Actual Goddamn Professional, during his ~20 years as Russia's Foreign Minister. This has taken WORK. And EFFORT. And means that if Ukraine just abandons diplomacy—real fucking diplomacy, not that guilt-trip nonsense—they've by default surrendered that side of warfare. If Lavrov has half the US NSC on hotdial, it's Ukraine's job to also try and build those connections.
(What, you think Lavrov's connections got handed to him on a silver platter? You think Russia was given any sort of respect by the Western establishment in 2004? 1998? 1992? No. But he's a diplomat who did diplomacy !)
But, well, it didn't. And the price is life itself.
Ok, no offence but I happened to read your post and it struck me as grossly unfair and wrong.
First, nobody is going to fight for Ukraine's interests but Ukraine itself. Nobody in the Western Europe/USA was waiting in line to give Ukraine weapons to defend its country and I don't think it's a stretch to say that without Zelenskyy's pushing diplomacy Ukraine had received less and slower help, if any tangible help at all. To understand that one just has to look at the world's reaction after the Crimea occupation and Russia starting hostilities in Donbass in 2014. Ukraine was 'diplomatic' and was relying on Germany and France's mediation and where did this 'traditional' diplomacy lead? To controversial Minsk agreements that not only didn't solve anything but also by all accounts were highly unfavorable to Ukraine. And this is not the only example where Ukraine was let down by so called 'great powers' in pre-Zelenskyy era.
Meanwhile, Zelenskyy and Kuleba's diplomacy since 24 February 2022 has brought to Ukraine a lot of military help, including Leopard tanks and Patriot air defence systems that previously were considered to be unattainable and without which many more people had been dead, and a lot of other sort of help, like financial and humanitarian; EU candidate status for Ukraine; establishing closer relations with countries that Ukraine had little to do with before like African countries and countries of Arabic world, to name a few things. Not to mention that Zelenskyy has managed to build such a close working relationship with the world leaders that none of Ukrainian leaders has ever had. Just recently after conversations with the president of Turkey he managed to free and bring home Ukrainian commanders that according to an agreement between Russia and Turkey were supposed to stay in Turkey until the end of the war. So how on earth one can call his approach to diplomacy foolish and guilt tripping nonsense?
Hell, even in this NATO summit Ukraine received everything, except the invitation and timetable, which was a good result. Biden himself complimented Zelenskyy on huge work he has done. Zelenskyy, Kuleba and the rest are working very hard and with considerable results, it's clear as day.
Lastly, regarding Lavrov. Maybe years ago Lavrov was a decent diplomat, I don't know, but now he is constantly talking bullshit and constantly is being snapped, so it's strange to set him as an example. And I think that Lavrov's successes were less to do with his 'genius' and more to do with a traditional perception of Russia as a superpower, no matter how rotten and corrupt. That's why USA is so attached to it, it's not easy to destroy outdated notions in the minds of some of the White House's inhabitants. Also, Russia has been spending huge money on buying politicians around the world.
Ok, no offense but I happened to read your response and it struck me as grossly uninformed about anything before a Zelenskyy-focused interest beginning in 2022.
No offense.
Response under the cut because I respect people's dashboard space.
First, what? I'm not sure how exactly to respond to this point because while yes, it is a basic fucking tenet of diplomacy that everyone and their dog knows, which is why I admired Zelenskyy's blatant PR manipulation (and yes, it is manipulation, you've probably also been emotionally manipulated based on your reply)... at first. But as humans actually aren't a bunch of Randian, totally-self-centered assholes but are social creatures who do things for their social connections, I've found the complete lack of investment by Kuleba (who's JOB THIS IS TO DO) in those social connections (because he's the CHIEF DIPLOMAT) to be disappointing. He could treat his colleagues like actual colleagues, but he hasn't.
Look, fine, I can understand if you, a random tumblr blogger, don't understand what diplomacy entails. But for Kuleba not to understand? He's failed at understanding the basic principle of his job, and it WILL bite him in the ass. I know it will bite him in the ass, because it bit Poroshenko in the ass. His diplomacy, when it even existed, was self-centered and obviously corrupt (because you're such a Zelenskyy fan, check out the memoir by Marie Yovanovitch Lessons from the Edge. It mentions that when Trump stopped caring about corruption in Ukraine, so did Poroshenko. Actually, since you're such a Zelenskyy fan, you should know that Vova ran against Poroshenko's corruption.)
Second, yes, Zelenskyy's PR campaign has been successful in a lot of ways. But I'm not just thinking of the present, I'm thinking of the future. There's a time limit to how long this sort of thing will last and anyone who actually gives a shit about Ukraine (and is paid to do so, like the FOREIGN FUCKING MINISTER) should have some, any sort of ground set for future relations. Begging people for weapons does not lay that ground. Point blank. "But it's war!! How could we expect poor baby Kuleba to plan ahead?" BECAUSE IT'S. HIS. FUCKING. JOB. War is hard, and it's stressful, and horrible, but letting it get in the way of your job as chief diplomat is pathetic.
Re: NATO. Zelenskyy's done a lot of work. But Kuleba? I have my doubts.
Check my blog. I've been a fan of Zelenskyy since 2020. You think I don't know the man has worked his ass off? But that's why I get mad when his advisors aren't competent, because that puts more work on him, work he isn't humanly able to do. If he had a Foreign Minister that actually understood diplomacy, his life would be easier than it is now. Period. But he doesn't.
—
Re: Lavrov. Look man, you just came here and basically admitted you don't know anything of substance about him. It's not "strange" to set him up as an example to anyone who actually knows what they're talking about, it's just strange to you because you're ignorant.
No offense.
Lavrov's inroads in global diplomacy aren't because people were like "oooooh Russia ungh im gonna nut" it's because he PUT. IN. THE. WORK. Yes, what Russia did have going for it is having the chief diplomacy school—MGIMO—in Moscow, but that basically means Russia actually had diplomatic experts who know what they're doing.
The fact that you seriously decided, after admitting you don't have a single clue about Lavrov's diplomatic history, to ALSO insult US diplomats by basically calling them a bunch of hypnotized nincompoops is... ridiculous. A word that doesn't sum up my strong feelings, but it's what I've got.
Actually, I do have a word: angry. You know nothing about US diplomacy, but you've projected your wartime-[PR]opaganda without even thinking about it. It makes me sick.
Like, sorry to be blunt, but writing off diplomacy kills people. An unwillingness to compromise or, at the very least, think of some, any sort of solution that addresses the concerns of the "enemy"... fucking kills people.
I don't know. I'm sick of drafted soldiers being used as cannon fodder because the Ukrainian MFA is too fucking incompetent to know how basic diplomacy works (and then blames the lack of diplomacy on the ACTUAL PROFESSIONALS doing their ACTUAL FUCKING JOBS, KULEBA).
And, like, Sergei Lavrov IS A GODDAMN PROFESSIONAL. He worked in the US for ~20 years and he's maintained those contacts. He's made even more contacts, and a name for himself as an Actual Goddamn Professional, during his ~20 years as Russia's Foreign Minister. This has taken WORK. And EFFORT. And means that if Ukraine just abandons diplomacy—real fucking diplomacy, not that guilt-trip nonsense—they've by default surrendered that side of warfare. If Lavrov has half the US NSC on hotdial, it's Ukraine's job to also try and build those connections.
(What, you think Lavrov's connections got handed to him on a silver platter? You think Russia was given any sort of respect by the Western establishment in 2004? 1998? 1992? No. But he's a diplomat who did diplomacy !)
But, well, it didn't. And the price is life itself.
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