Cooking up a much bigger and more detailed post about this, but just wanting to get my thoughts out into the ether:
I not only believe there is substantial subtextual evidence that Will suffered serious abuse by Lonnie, but that Mike knows about this abuse, at least to some extent.
Yes, I believe this may have been CSA as well as physical abuse.
Mike's behaviour towards Will (and their relationship dynamic as a whole) is completely recontextualised when we consider this theory:
Mike's definition of a friend involves telling each other things parents don't know about. This immediately resonates with a traumatized and abused El.
Will always tells Mike the truth ("It was a seven."), but Lucas and Dustin don't. The honesty policy isn't really a pact between friends. It's a pact between Mike and Will.
Mike also appears to be adept at noticing the signs of abuse, accurately guessing that El was "in trouble" and afraid of someone when he found her.
When El goes to take off her clothes, he doesn't panic like Lucas and Dustin. He calmly explains the concept of privacy. When El expresses boundaries (don't shut the door, don't touch my tattoo), Mike listens. He's explained privacy before. He's had someone express boundaries to him before (unusual for a 12 year old to not take this personally or get defensive).
Mike says he's the only one who cares about Will in season 1, because he genuinely believes it. I don't think he has a poor opinion of Joyce and Jonathan, but he certainly thinks they don't care enough. He appears to have a low opinion of adults and authority figures in general. I think Lonnie sullied his opinion of adults: turns out, they are NOT always trustworthy.
Mike constantly checks in on Will through-out the series, often double-checking (You okay? Are you sure?). He knows when something is wrong with him, when he's acting "different."
Mike uses a soft voice around Will (the Will voice), and never raises his voice at him. Even when they argue: Will yells at Mike, but Mike doesn't yell back. Will gestures wildly, pokes him (and even shoulder-checks Lucas), but Mike never touches Will when he's angry. Yet, we've seen him slap El's hands away and shove Troy, so we know he can get a little physical when he's very upset.
Can you imagine Mike poking Will in the way Will poked him (even though it wouldn't have hurt)? Personally, I just can't. It's so the opposite of how he treats Will: very gentle, very careful.
Mike is protective of Will in general, and is even possessive after Will's episode while trick-or-treating, not wanting Dustin and Lucas to get involved. What if this behaviour isn't due to affection alone? If Mike had seen Will like that before (panicked, unresponsive, curled into a ball), he might have thought it was about Lonnie. That's a secret between the two of them, that Dustin and Lucas don't know about. Better keep them away, and take Will somewhere safe and private. Don't need them asking questions. Will wouldn't like that. Maybe Will also doesn't like being touched while he's in that state, at least by anyone who isn't Mike. Better make sure Dustin doesn't grab him just in case.
Mike accidentally blurts out "It's not my fault you don't like girls!" and the implication is even worse now. Will associates his abuse with his queerness ("Lonnie used to say he was queer. Called him a f*g.") and it makes him feel like a mistake - he blames himself. Mike knows "what happens" ("He was probably killed by some other queer."). The belief at the time that childhood abuse led to boys becoming queer, the implication of saying Will doesn't like girls, knowing what he knows. Mike not wanting to assume Will's sexual preferences despite the signs, Mike knowing that's a highly sensitive topic beyond typical period-accurate homophobia.
Mike staring at the Byers' home when Will leaves for California. Mike realizing Will is never coming back to Indiana, because why would he return to this wretched place, after everything that's happened? He finally got away. Not just from the Upside Down. From him.
Mike hesitating to hug Will at the airport because his feelings have changed. His attraction has grown. Is he... still allowed to touch Will? Would that be crossing a boundary? Even if Will initiates the hug, maybe it's innapropriate for Mike to hug him back, because Mike likes him as more than a friend. That would probably freak Will out. Will wouldn't like being touched like that, right? Mike doesn't want to push too far, or make Will uncomfortable.
And finally, the implication that Will doesn't really remember what happened with Lonnie, because like Nina and El, the trauma was so great that he buried the memory. The Upside Down being the place where Will lost his memories, because it "changed" him. It represents the subconscious, dissociation, and repression. The Mind Flayer being described as more a "feeling" than an "it." Will still has the feeling (anxiety, repulsion, the thought that he is wrong or a mistake), but not the material explanation for it. Mike remembers. Mike never brings it up explicitly – this is why they’re adept at speaking in code. Mike doesn't know that Will doesn't remember.
Mike and Will speak in code through-out the series, but particularly in season 4. Mike hears Will say, "Sometimes it's just scary. To say how you really feel. Because what if people don't like the truth?" and doesn't respond. Doesn't follow up to ask what Will's truth is that he thinks people wouldn't like. Not because he isn't curious: because he already knows. At least, he thinks he knows. He just nods despondently.
Yes, Will. I know. I'm so sorry you're scared to tell people about that. My thing is different (I'm in love with you), but thank you for understanding.
Will crying about feeling like a mistake, and Mike being smart enough to know he's not talking about El. Mike thinking Will's referring to him, and how that made Will feel like a mistake. (In a way, it is. That's why Will's homosexuality feels to traumatising to him). Mike doesn't have anything to say then, either. Because they're in a van with Jonathan and Argyle, and those two don't know the secret, so Mike shouldn't bring it up. Mike doesn't physically comfort Will while he cries, because Mike's not sure if physical touch is appropriate anymore. Will turns away because he’s embarrassed. Mike has no reason to suspect Will loves him and is embarrassed. Mike just assumes Will doesn't want to be touched by him. It hurts. Mike respects the percieved boundary, giving Will one more cursory glance.
Later, he hesitates slightly to touch Will’s shoulder in the cabin, but does so after seeing Will hug Dustin and Lucas. Now he knows touch is okay. Mike is always watching and observing him with careful precision and consideration.
According to the summary posted by the VFX company, Season 5 is about the Upside Down merging with the real world, aka the subtext joining the text. Time "unravelling" implies it's convoluted, messy, disorganised. Time is memory. Memories need to be unravelled and processed. Secrets are revealed and past traumas resurface.
Yes, there's a beautiful love story being told between Mike and Will, but it's more than that. It's a story about how abuse can hinder self actualization. It's a story about navigating queer love and sexuality with the nuances of trauma, and balancing the desire for intimacy with sensitivity. It's a story about Will battling with himself because he thinks being queer is wrong, and thinks his abuse was his fault. It's a story about Mike battling with himself because the last thing he'd ever want to do is hurt Will, and he's worried that loving Will would do that.
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