Several days ago HLE and T1 played a BO5 for the LCK second seed in MSI. The match up was considered to be largely HLE favoured, especially after their performance against GenG two days prior.
I myself also held the opinion that despite the match up against T1 being a tough one, HLE would end up winning the series 3-2. Despite that, deep within my heart I knew, T1 is inevitable, and that thought was what accompanied me throughout the series.
Game 1: They got Vi... The Vi didn't work
Not the most clever title but that is what the game comes down to for me - A bunch of failed early Vi engage attempts into what felt like too big of a map control loss that led HLE getting caught repeatedly, and eventually losing the game.
The Draft -
HLE on blue, got Jayce, Vi and Ahri, in exchange for a Kalista Neeko duo, with Oner on Wukong. The other picks were Miss Fortune Rell for the bot of HLE and Sylas Gwen for Faker and Doran respectively.
Now I might be slightly biased here, but I don't think HLE lost draft that badly. While yes, playing Vi into Wukong doesn't sound like fun, they drafted an Ahri alongside it, making it more playable due to the chain cc and burst. I also don't think, despite the fact that giving Guma Kalista being a big gamble, that the bot duo of T1 had too much to do with what unfolded in this game (despite Guma's inevitable huge gold lead).
All in all, the drafts seem more or less playable on both ends, with good engage, damage and side-laning on both sides if they got ahead.
The difference, and what probably led to HLE losing game 1, is the re-engage possibilities. While yes, Delight can find (and did find) great Magnet Storms and Peanut and Zeka can dive into the back line and look for a Charm and a Cease and Decease, the moment they go in Keria and Oner can immediately pull their own tools and turn the fight, which is what happened every single time. I wrote in my notes 'Get caught = you're dead, get behind = you're dead' regarding the HLE comp and I believe that is a good segue into discussing the game itself.
The Game -
Spoiler alert: They got behind.
The game started fine, with Zeus getting a Lvl lead in top lane and Zeka pressuring mid, while the T1 bot lane was pushing. All as expected.
Now, the HLE house of cards doesn't fall right here but the first signs of trouble showed themselves when the first drake got stolen by Oner (in a very smart hide on bush moment). HLE then had to give up grubs as well meaning despite two early lanes winning, T1 was already ahead on the map control (I will mention top lane was extra spicy with very aggressive trades that ended with both flashes lost as well as Doran gaining a TP advantage around grub timer, because Zeus used his later).
HLE then re-gained some momentum by Peanut ganking the mid lane and getting Zeka first blood, thanks to Faker going to far up the lane for cs due to Zekas natural pressure in the ranged vs melee match-up.
The momentum however might've been too much because Peanut used it to launch himself into the waiting arms of a Wukong with ult. This is not the last time this will happen, this is why playing Vi into Wukong does not sound fun. He C&D Oner, while Delight was just slightly out of reach and couldn't join him, as well as Zeka being zoned by a Pop Blossom, which led to him being seperated from his team and dying. T1 got second drake, and the soul was Hextech soul (the second best one, first being Infernal cause I love the cinders). Peanut then attempted a mid gank on Guma that was disrupted by Oner cycloning him and Delight with the second cast catching Viper and eventually killing him. The herald fight went just about the same with Peanut ulting Oner and dying again, and T1 got herald.
Third drake comes up, HLE are behind but they can still come back. Delight hits a Magnet storm onto the Gwen and crucially the Wukong, who blows up, and the drake gets secured by HLE. Peanut and Keria both die in the fight leaving HLE with a 2 to 1 fight win as well as the drake secure. However, instead of taking the win they tried to go back for more and this is for me where they lost the game. T1 has too much chase, with Gwen, Sylas and Kalista still being up and HLE immediately lose this part of the fight, Zeka the only man left standing.
The next point of pressure that finally blew HLEs house of cards down was once again around drake, when Delight got caught right behind the pit and died as the drake spawned. The ensuing team fight was doomed from the beginning, Zeus got caught in a Pop Blossom and died, Vi went in and out, and died, and Viper who got a Bullet Time onto 3 unfortunately did not have enough damage to kill any of them, while also being stuck on the red side of mid lane, so he also died. T1 went on to get that drake, Atakhan, Baron and eventually soul.
Once again I believe my notes sum the situation up nicely "The last team fight attempt could've worked if they weren't in a 12K deficit".
Game 2: KT roller-coaster here in spirit. This is Doran's POM game.
This one is long, and the title says it all so let's jump straight into it.
The Draft -
HLE chose blue again, and got Sion, Xin zhao, Viktor, Jhin and Nautilaus. T1 got Ambessa, Pantheon, Ryze, Varus and Poppy.
HLE's draft has a good frontline and strong scailing, meaning in a front-to-back teamfight they should win, however Keria's Poppy could stop them if he hit his ults well and got rid of the right targets.
Once again, the teams came out of the draft stage rather evenly, both sides having the tools needed to succeed.
The Game -
True to the title I gave this game, this was a stressful back and fourth that would make KT proud.
It started with all three of HLE's lanes winning. However, T1 still mange get drake due to a bit of an awkwared TP difference between Zeus and Doran. HLE then go to get grubs while Zeus gets dove in bot. Later Faker got ganked in mid by the bot duo and Peanut.
T1 get second drake, the soul is ocean soul.
Regular early game right?
A couple of minutes later the chaos begins.
Keria get caught trying to back, HLE then push to try and get Oner as well but he slips away and Peanut is now on low HP. Faker Realm Warps in, and lives to regrat that as he very quickly gets low on health and has to reatret under his turret, where he eventually dies.
Quite quickly after Oner tries to get something back in mid and dives Zeka but he gets stunned for long enough that Zeka lives and he dies.
While all of this was happening, our main character Doran was solo taking top turret, fully.
The next drake spawnes and HLE use herald to get prio for it. They get the prio but their attempt at a take is disturbed by that oh-so-important Poppy ult that removes Sion and Jhin. Zeka and Peanut take Faker out but Delight dies after hooking Guma. Zeus returns, kills Keria and then dies to Oner and Guma, and Doran gets ontop of the Jhin who flashes. T1 win the fight and get soul point.
Before the fight the gold lead for HLE was 1.7K, now reduced to 700. Doran in 1.3K in the lead over Zeus.
The next interesting thing that happenes is Doran TPing to mid, and canceling Zeus' Q stun by ulting viper and killing him. Doran and Delight both die in the subsequent fight.
The next drake spawns which can only mean one thing: another teamfight :)
It starts with Keria ulting Peanut away and Oner ulting ontop of the HLE frontline. Zeus gets a 3 man Q, while Guma fights Zeka and Doran tries to catch Viper. HLE come out on top by killing Oner and Doran, and they get drake.
Immediatly after, Peanut and Viper start Atakhan, so T1 strike in mid. They kill Zeus under turret but thanks to Delight ulting Guma the Varus is low enough that Zeka gets both him as well as Faker in return. HLE get Atakhan.
HLE's gold lead is now 2.6K. Doran is 1.8K in the lead over Zeus.
Lets skip to the next drake fight. It starts with Keria ones again crucially getting Zeus out of the fight, and Faker Realm warping in (to then immediatly use Zhonya's) Oner and Doran get ontop of the backline, Oner dies for it but Doran gets Viper. Peanut and Delight also die in the fight.
T1 win the fight, get soul and baron. T1 are now 2K in the lead, Doran is 3.8K in the lead.
HLE make an attempt at a comeback when Guma seems to push too far in bot. Zeus TPs behind him and Guma stalls by flashing away. Faker TPs in, Keria ults the Viktor (my notes said literally "Keria kicks out Viktor. Bad). Guma is no longer alone.
HLE manage to kill Guma but it takes so long that both Peanut and Zeus get low, and they die a few seconds later. At the same time, our protagonist Doran is fighting both Jhin and Viktor alone,and winning. He kills Zeka and gets Viper increadibly low. He is now 4.9K in his individuale lead. (Go watch this, he ults Zeka in fog which is pretty cool).
The final fight happens at top turret. Zeus gets Varus ulted and loses most of his health. Doran then ults Delight under the turret. He gets a triple kill in that fight and finishes the game 6.3K gold in the lead over his counterpart.
As I said, this is his POM game.
Game 3: T1 is inevitable
Short and sweet, just like the game. Honestly this game was the only one I coud watch live, and I didn't know (for some reason) I was watching game 3. Once I found that out (only after it ended) I was so disappointed I only watched the games a few days afterwards.
All this to say, this one is brutal.
The Draft -
HLE chose red in an attempt to change things up. The drafts were K'sante, Lee Sin, Annie, Xayan and Rakan for T1, and Gnar, Nidalee, Galio, Lucian and Braum for HLE.
A few questions arose in my mind seeing this.
1. How is Peanut's Nidalee going to be?
2. Why the Annie first pick?
3. How are HLE, if they fall behind, going to comeback, with no range? (aka melee mid, low range bot) (Ok yes I know Xayah is also not the highest range but she is already meant to escape if you came at her, with no range she becomes so hard to deal with).
The Game -
The laning faze started out as a problem for HLE, with their bot lane getting completly zoned off of waves after a lane swap to top (both bot lanes). T1 got first drake and after Oner stealing the first grub, they also got the rest of those.
And now, HLE starts to fall.
The first teamfight starts with Keria charming Delight and Viper (who cleanses it). Zeka ults in but Guma ults as well, then recalls, rooting them all. Viper uses his ult and hits nothing. Guma gets low, but recalls some feathers and kills Zeka. While this was happening, Faker came up from mid, as well as Peanut. Faker flash-Tibbers Viper and Peanut and kills both as well as Deligth.
T1 come out 4-0. HLE's top turret with 1 plate remaining.
Zeus later looked for an all-in against Doran in bot but Keria TPed in and caught him, Doran got the kill.
Right after T1 continue the fight into a teamfight and T1 get out 8-0.
Oner gets drake, Doran gets top turret. T1 has a 6K gold lead before 15 minutes.
Now we shall time skip to HLE's first kill of the game, so you will need context. A very long fight happened, and Oner Guma and Faker all lost some health. The score is 12-0, 5 turrets to nothing, 9.6K gold lead at 18 minutes.
T1 are about to get soul point.
Zeka goes in onto Guma, is unsuccessfull, and backs off.
Zeus goes in onto Guma, flashes ontop of him and gets his ult. He gets charmed by Keria.
Gumayusi is now low but Zeus has 3 people fighting him, so he can't kill Guma and he dies to Faker.
Keria tries to use the rest of his ult on the rest of HLE but goes too deep and dies.
Delight, Viper and Zeka all die afterwards. T1 take drake.
T1 then went on to get Atakhan (Guma soloed it, just fyi) and then to hit the Nexus.
The game ended at 25:31 with a score of 29-3, 9 turrets to T1, 3 grubs, 3 drakes and 1 Atakhan, 17K gold ahead.
Final thoughts:
1. HLE has been playing with fire for a while, in mid game as well as in drafting, and it finally caught up to them. I am an HLE fan, and every week I was wondering when will they finally get their wake up call. Well... here it is, they are not going to MSI, they lost 3-0, they couldn't stop T1.
2. T1 are inevitable. It might be said in a joking manner sometimes but this team is full of talented, hungry individuals, who will try their hardest to get to the top, and I hope to see this at MSI.
3. Speaking of MSI, Idk what this means for it. T1 will definetly do well but I still think GenG should be stronger, though I guess we'll find that out on the stage. I do think though that T1 might be their toughest competition, alongside Flyquest and AL.
4. Doran. Do I think he deserved that POM, sure, I think Doran did great. Do I have faith regarding his form at MSI? Idk. Doran of summer last year and Doran of worlds were two different Dorans, and maybe this Doran won't show up at MSI. I hope he will though, and I hope he'll have a really good showing, because this is a player who already has so much pressure on him this year, I hope he can alleviate some on it at MSI.
5. Please remember, this is my personal analysis. It took me days to start this, because it took me days to accept that HLE lost and aren't going to MSI. (Afterwards the delay is just life getting in the way but still, my point stands).
Despite that, I tried my best to convey my thoughts in a somewhat unbiased way. This is my first time writing down my thoughts while watching a game, and not just nagging to my friends afterwards, so constructive criticism will be appreciated.
I like all of these players, and I want all of them to succeed :)
Good luck to T1 (and obviously GenG) on MSI (which literally starts today. This was supposed to be up over a week ago but uni took priority :( )