a tragedy on two legs

wind breaker is a fighting manga, and everyone's first fight says a lot about their characters:

sakura says he wants to fight his way to the top, but the first thing we see him do in the manga is protect someone. even as he rejects people with words, his actions show where his heart lies

before the shishitoren fight suo seems amused with the situation, but when the fight with kanuma starts we see how disdainful he actually is of childish bullies that hurt others

nirei was once saved by a furin student, so now he wants to do anything to be that person for someone, even if he doesn't currently have the skills to help someone without getting hurt

kiryu is attentive to girls and wants to protect them in and out of fights

sugishita wants to protect the world umemiya created

tsugeura and kiryu have their first fight together, a fight kiryu is involved in for trying to protect a girl, while tsugeura just happens to be there. when he learns those man are after the girl his thoughts aren't about the men hurting a girl, but about how kiryu is cool.

protecting people is a side effect of his real objective of fighting strong people. his virtue is letting opponents get the first strike. is that a sign of his chivalrous nature? not really. i would argue that for someone obsessed with people's virtues, his are surprisingly unclear and unsubstantial.

one way to write a mystery is by misdirecting. look at this shiny thing and dont worry about whats happening over there! i see this happening with tsuge's character all the time. have his introduction be with kiryu so we can pay attention to kiryu protecting the girl and forget about tsugeura's own motivations!

another fight that establishes everyone's character is the one against keel. for tsugeura, he... cares about his friends? but is that ever relevant for his character? in the same fight, suo caring about his friends is more relevant than it ever is for tsuge.

what sakura said he was (someone that only cares about fighting to the top) is what tsugeura actually appears to be. as far as i know he could be upset only because they weren't putting on a good show.

moving on, i was checking this document again, and to my surprise tsugeura's name has large river in it. surprising because suo - who has been connected to tsugeura since the beginning - is from a river island. maybe tsuge's from there too?

another interesting thing in his name is the connection to betrayal. is he betraying suo? bofurin? if he's from the kasai district too, is he betraying them? is he the one who's going to be betrayed?

when tsugeura finally talked about his past with suo everyone felt underwhelmed. 200 chapters of build up for this? tsuge didn't offer any information on suo even when anything could be of help, he only said anything when asked.

but what i'm thinking now is that he never tried asking suo again after that first day. is suo's virtue really that interesting? no one ever says their virtue to tsuge, he's the one that assigns people virtues after observing them.

i think its clear what suo's virtue is. was that really the question tsuge made that suo didnt want to answer? when they met again he could have said "wanna tell me your virtue now?" instead of what he says here.

we're getting their history now, when suo isn't there to disavow tsuge if he's lying. i would have actually trusted suo more than i do tsuge because i already know suo doesn't like to lie.

suo's actually even more honest then i expected. i thought because we see a silly side of him and a colder side of him, the truth lied in the middle and that would be his personality in the red chanpuru, but that's not what happened. he acts there the same he does in makochi. (at least with the population). and when given the opportunity to lie, he still chooses to say nothing.

is tsuge being an optimist here or did his strategy to keep people out of his business work? since i've noticed it, i've been obsessed with how tsuge keeps people out of his business by doing the opposite of suo.

the way i see it, suo is evading questions in canon but leaving it obvious for the readers he's hiding something. while tsuge is misdirecting us. he's Too Much, so the characters leave him alone and don't ask him anything, which frees him from the responsibility of having to lie in the first place! brilliant strategy. suo, take notes.

in the grande scheme of things, this isn't much, but its actually what started this unraveling for me. out of our six main first years, tsuge is the only one that doesn't have school as his favorite place. does that mean he's evil? no. other characters have other places too, like tsubaki and anzai.

but having all the other evidence, i think muscle power could be important. if tsuge is part of another group, they could be hiding in plain sight as the workers of muscle power.

suo's absence is so big we don't think about how tsuge is also missing. and while we had a hint of suo's backstory around chapter 100, we don't have anything for tsuge. why make him such an important character? there has to be more to him. we have anzai's backstory, sugishita's backstory and now suo's close before getting even a hint of tsugeura's.

i think suo and tsuge are used by nii sensei to misdirect each other all the time. suo is a traitor don't look at anyone else. suo is annoyed at tsuge don't think about who else suo should be annoyed at.

while i never doubted how much suo cares, i do doubt tsugeura. does he even care about protecting makochi and its people?? what is the principle of his life?

one of the only things we know about tsugeura is that he's interested in suo. he went looking for him in middle school, and now looked for him again and managed to become friends with him. are they from the same place? is tsuge with a group that wants to take the red chanpuru down? was the fight a set up? did suo hurt his brother? is he really only interested in knowing his virtue?

suo left, and tsuge is still in makochi. is what he wants in makochi? what if the first years go to find suo and makochi is left more vulnerable to attack?

IDK!!! but if tsugeura's going to be a traitor it has to be this arc because we're not gonna do fake traitors two times (i dont think tsuuge is going to be pure evil either). bankoku-gai (not red chanpuru, we haven't really been introduced to them) is more like makochi than i thought it would be. so maybe the danger will come from something else. something tsuge is involved in.

at the end of the day what i have is: why is tsuge even as important as he is? it could be only sakura, suo, kiryu, nirei and sugishita. we didn't need another character, tsugeura could have been part of anzai's group. so if he was included, it means his character is more than he seems.

and that's my thing, when you stop to think about what tsuge's deal is, you have nothing. and you don't even realize you have nothing! we have more on suo than tsuge. we have more on anzai and momijikawa than on tsuge. and yet, no one is going crazy wondering what his backstory is. and that's what makes it suspicious.

i know i started this by asking what tsugeura's deal is, but unfortunately that's also how i'm gonna end it too.

prelude: the heart of the matter

it is impossible for me to write a post analysing sugishita's core and not talk about the fact that, intentionally or otherwise, he is very heavily autistic-coded.

there are a fair number of characters across the cast who could be interpreted as autistic based on various traits they display (and I do, in fact, headcanon several other characters as autistic), but I do also think the majority of these cases can be attributed to characters' trauma as opposed to inherent neurodiversity. I do not think this is the case with sugishita.

even having grown up with the love and support of his grandparents, sugishita struggles to understand his own emotions, express himself, and interact with others. add to that textural issues with clothing, chronic resting bitch face, and an extreme resistance to change, and it's very clear to me that sugishita is an autistic teenager who is still trying to navigate the world in a way that works for him, so I will, at least partially, be analysing him through an autistic lens.

a placid heart

I think one of the biggest misconceptions people have about sugishita—both inside canon and outside of it—is that he's aggressive by nature. wind breaker is a story that's told, for the most part, from sakura's perspective, and at the beginning of the story, sakura perceives sugishita as aggressive. this is an understandable first impression that helps form the basis for their entire relationship over the course of the story.

this also couldn't be further from the truth. sugishita doesn't like fighting. he never has. much like sakura, he never really wanted to fight in the first place, and this is both a parallel and a contrast between the two; though they were both forced into fighting at a young age, sakura found a form of refuge in it, while sugishita found it exhausting.

mostly, sugishita just wants to be left alone. he's a very passive presence, content to while away the hours napping in isolation if not for external interference. he's also someone much too small for his own body, and who would naturally fade into the background if not for the all ways in which he sticks out. he only really ever fights to protect what he values, which brings me to my next point:

a passionate heart

sugishita is not an uncaring person. he struggles to express himself and often comes across as rude or standoffish as a result, but to quote umemiya, he's really just an awkward little guy. this is my own interpretation of his character, but I think the main reason sugishita gets so angry about people disrespecting umemiya, or threatening the peace of the town, or ruining the bento his grandmother made for him, is that he cares.

he says himself that he has strong emotions. but I don't think he realises these emotions are sourced from a place of love: his love for the ones who take care of him, his affection for the town he was raised in, his admiration for the person who carved out a place in the world where he could exist peacefully, where he could just be.

I think that, to sugishita, an infringement on any of those things is as good as an infringement on his own being, and I think that knowing this also helps put into perspective the extreme response he had to sakura on the day they first met.

sugishita is not the type to take a measured approach, to step back and assess a situation before acting. instead, he acts primarily on impulse, driven by powerful emotions he doesn't understand and often can't even put a name to.

a heavy heart

I got bullied a lot as a kid.

I wouldn't get diagnosed until much later, but I'm pretty sure they could smell the autism on me—kids are perceptive like that, in ways adults often fail (and failed me, spectacularly). it would often be the case that someone would bother me, taunt me, harass me, anything to try to get a rise out of me, and as soon as I retaliated, they'd be the one to go crying to an adult about it. I'd be punished. the adults were rarely interested in hearing my side of the story.

as I mentioned earlier, sugishita struggles to understand his own emotions, and he struggles even more to express himself to others. there's a great post by @choberr that goes into detail about sugishita's likelihood of experiencing alexithymia, which you can read in full here (I feel it's worth noting that alexithymia has a much higher rate of occurrence in those with autism than in the general population—50% vs only 5%).

earlier in his childhood, this struggle to express himself led to misunderstandings, and those misunderstandings led to fights, which led to more misunderstandings, and so on. it seems to me as though, aside from the support he got from his grandparents, he was basically never afforded any grace or patience during this period of his life. no-one to take his side. no-one to hear him out.

so of course he would latch onto umemiya, who is seemingly the first person to have ever asked for his side of the story. of course he would find a sense of safety in that, even if that sense of safety would lead to his stagnation.

a stubborn heart

autism is a condition that craves stability; as such, sugishita is a character who is extremely resistant to change. this is something that even shows through his family name: sugi, a conifer, evergreen, unchanging even as the seasons pass. he is happy with the status quo, and wants things to always remain exactly as they are, to the point that he doesn't even consider that his upperclassmen are eventually, inevitably, going to graduate.

sugishita wants things to stay the same. it's for this reason that sakura makes a poor first impression on him, and that this impression sticks. admitting you were wrong about someone is difficult for anyone, but it has to be particularly hard for sugishita, who already has trouble parsing his own emotions. logically, I think he realised pretty early on that he was wrong about sakura, but knowing something and accepting it are two very different things.

but this is also beneficial in its own way; right now, there are plenty of people around sakura who are willing to uplift him, but few who are willing to be brutally honest with him. sugishita doesn't mince words. he doesn't sugarcoat. he doesn't talk down to sakura. and I think sakura needs that too: someone who'll hold him accountable as an equal and not a supporter. a rival.

throughout most of the manga, sugishita has continued acting aggressively towards sakura, and I think that's at least partially because he still doesn't know what else he's supposed to do. anger is seemingly the default he reverts to when he's experiencing strong emotions (it's safe, it's consistent, it's a reliable fallback), and he's still building the toolset he needs to handle the conflicting emotions he feels towards sakura in particular.

I think he does care about sakura, in his own way (and nirei would seem to agree with me), but this caring chafes against the loathing he's still stubbornly clinging to.

in other words, he's still growing.

a change of heart

"forever" is an impossible dream.

I think the crux of sugishita's arc is accepting this—accepting that change is an inevitable part of capital-b Being. umemiya is probably aware of this, which is why he encourages sugishita to expand his horizons, little by little. it's glaringly obvious that amongst his peers, he's by far the slowest to adapt. but given enough time, even mountains move, and it also helps that he has a catalyst; someone to prompt him to action and promote change in him.

it was honestly a stroke of genius on suou's part to pair sugishita up with sakura during the noroshi war. I think he's one of few people able to see past their surface-level bickering and understand their deeper level of compatibility, and the ways in which they could influence each other for the better (and in sugishita's case specifically, come to the agonising realisation that maybe sakura doesn't suck as much as he initially thought).

I think that's also one of the reasons why suou later said he was glad that sugishita had been getting along with nirei; a unit works best when all its parts are well-integrated, and sugishita had always kept himself to the fringes, only ever getting involved with provocation from sakura or encouragement from suou. him forming a connection with nirei is a major milestone in his personal growth, evidence that slowly, quietly, his world is expanding.

this growth bleeds over into the next major arc, where we see sugishita, if rather indirectly, approaching sakura for help. we haven't yet found out why exactly sugishita chose to do this, because he's still struggling to be open with others at this point in his development, and being open with sakura is probably an entirely different level of challenging because he's still dealing with the fact that he thinks sakura is Kind Of Cool, Actually. so when sakura probes him for an answer, he defaults to lashing out in order to avoid answering.

but personally, I believe the reason sugishita approached sakura is because he was able to acknowledge, if reluctantly, that reaching out to momijikawa is something he wasn't personally capable of. sugishita doesn't have the charisma, struggles with his words, can't communicate like others can. but he knows from seeing it happen before that sakura is capable of bridging that gap.

as for why he shared what he knew about momijikawa with the others, I think the reason was twofold: one, he wanted to give sakura the best shot at connecting with him. two, he wanted to clear up any potential misunderstandings. earlier, it was shown very clearly that he was overhearing his classmates griping about momijikawa's behaviour, and I think at the time, he was worried that it might end up in a situation like he himself experienced when he was younger.

in order to avoid that, he'd have to actually explain what momijikawa's deal was—and I remember around the time of the chapters in question seeing posts about it not really being sugishita's place to divulge that information, and I agree, and things could have gone much worse when considering that.

but I also think his heart was in the right place. he was coming from a place of not wanting momijikawa to be misunderstood like he himself had been in the past. sugishita himself said they were never really close, but I think him going out on a limb like this for momijikawa's benefit shows he cares a lot more than he ever actually admits to.

I think, if momijikawa had come back earlier in the school year, sugishita probably wouldn't have made the same choices. in fact, I doubt he would have done anything at all, and the situation likely would have turned out worse for it. it's only because he's been slowly, steadily changing that he was able to reach out in the way he did; the execution was imperfect and inelegant, but an undeniably sugishita way of going about it.

which brings us to the current arc. I don't think it's any coincidence that sugishita is asking to visit sakura alongside the two other people in his year he's been able to connect with. this is, I think, going to be another major milestone in his character development, and I'm really curious to see what tomorrow's chapter brings.

I've seen some speculate this is going to be another case of "tough love", like when he talked to sakura in chapter 146/7, but the more I think about it, the more I think that probably isn't the case. it's definitely possible, and I do think that it would be really fun and interesting if he completely biffed whatever interaction he has with sakura and just made the situation worse. but I think it's unlikely for one very simple reason: his hair.

sugishita has always preferred keeping his hair long, and it's been stated in his profile that he hates tying it back or getting it cut. for a long time, I thought this was just another autistic trait of his, but I've come to realise it's more than that. his hair is a shield. it's a way of keeping himself closed off from others. and what does his hair look like in chapter 218?

tucked behind his ears. face exposed.

I think this is a sign that sugishita has grown to a point where he's now more comfortable interacting with others, and has also become more emotionally open. I think he's at a point where he's ready to be open with sakura in particular, and maybe—just maybe—finally clear up the misunderstanding that's been hanging between them from the get-go.

right now, sakura doesn't need someone to hold him accountable; he needs as many people as possible on his side. and I think sugishita has been thinking very hard about that fact. and while nirei has told sakura (on more than one occasion now) that sugishita has changed, it's one thing to hear that secondhand, and quite another to experience it directly.

that said, it'll also be very useful to have both nirei and momijikawa to hand, because they both already have a strong, positive relationship with sakura. even if sugishita wants to clear things up with him, there's a good chance he'll still struggle to express himself, despite his progress. I don't doubt he'll need help smoothing things over.

and those two are probably the best supports he's going to get.