EASTERN QUESTION IN XXI CENTURY: STRUGGLING RUSSIA
http://adlerhorst.org/2014/11/eastern-question-in-xxi-century-struggling-russia/
As many of you know in the second half of the XIX century all European major powers were concerned with the fate of the Ottoman Empire. This state, still possessing huge territory and numerous population had become so weak inside that it could no longer be ignored and this weakness become one of the major factors of the worldâs policy of that time. This situation was called âEastern Questionâ and nowadays we can see how all the major World powers are facing almost the same conditions. Subject states of this question are changed but almost all of main factors remained the same.
Long ago were the days when Ottoman armies of hundreds of thousands soldiers were marching towards Vienna and Catholic Rome was threatened by the Turkish invasion in Italy â and in the XIX century it was time for the Ottoman Empire itself to become the target for political and military invasion of the West.
All the major powers of that days Europe like Great Britain, France and Austria-Hungary were aspiring to get profit from slow descent of the former enemy, to retake conquered lands, obtain concessions, or get influence on the Sultanâs court. At the same time there was an issue which no one of Europeans could ignore â Russian Empire. Russians together with their Tsar most of all wanted to destroy Ottoman Empire and conquer its lands but not to free Christian nations of the Balkans but to grow up his own forces and then to invade Europe.
Ottoman Empire at that days was mainly mentioned as âSick man of Europeâ exposing its real weakness and lack of influence of international affairs. One by one border provinces of this state become independent or even had been conquered by European powers aspiring new gains. Finally the Ottoman Empire collapsed into numerous pieces after the First World War and that Eastern Question was solved by mutual agreement of victorious Entente states especially in profit of France and United Kingdom.
Ironically, one of the main rivals of Ottoman Empire â Russia who waged numerous wars with its southern neighbor â completely failed in gaining any profit from the fall of Ottomans due to Communist revolution and civil war ongoing at that time.
Whoever could know at that time that in hundred years Russia would itself become the âSick man of Europeâ and finally reach the end of its imperialistic history?
Since very first years after the fall of Soviet Union Russians headed towards the restoration of imperialism. Step by step were diminished rights to self-government for regions of Russian Federation itself, in two murderous and violent wars was conquered Chechen Republic, Russian armed forces participated in Moldovan civil war, assisted Armenia in conquest of Karabakh, turned Georgian Abkhazia into puppet state, invaded Georgia in 2008 forcing it to abandon South Ossetia to Russians and finally annexed Crimean Peninsula and is still waging war in the east of Ukraine.
In all post-WW2 history in the whole World there was no more such aggressive states, no other country in last decades violated international norms and laws so frequently and so shameless. And obviously it could not last forever â in 2014 patience of the United States and European Union ran out.
Extensive sanctions imposed against Russian Federation caused significant damage for its economy and now even Russian experts are expecting dramatic drop in living standards and massive reduction of state income at least for next several years.
Now often sounds the question â if Russia is really so much weaker than NATO why the only thing Western countries performed are large-scale but not critical economic sanctions? Does that mean Russia is still able to compete with superpowers? Short answer is ânoâ and here is why â with Russia now we have exactly the same problem as once ago was with Ottoman Empire. As in XIX century Europe no major power was afraid of Turkish armies so as NATO of modern times doesnât afraid Russian offence. Yes, we can hear now voices of small NAO states like Lithuania and Estonia who seems to be slightly concerned about possible Russian aggression but in fact this is only precautionary measure from those states that were once conquered by Communists and now express reasonable suspicion to Russian gambles.
Fears of Baltic States about Russian invasion are groundless because between them and Georgia or Ukraine there is important difference â while latter ones until the very recent time did not belong to Western world trying to position themselves as some link between East and West and thus being very unstable in the context of world policies the former ones aligned themselves with both NATO and European Union and considered as inseparable part of Western Civilization which would be defended at all costs against every hostile offence attempt.
This state of affairs is quiet the same like it was between Ottoman Empire and the rest of Europe in XIX century when Turks were actually allowed to show force in minor Balkan states as long as no one Great power considers its zone of influence is violated. And similarly Russia until nowadays actually had cart-blanche on wide spectrum of transborder actions on post-Soviet space. Russian misuse of hostile military methods did not triggered any serious reaction from Western powers like NATO or US for they seen no real threat of these conflicts and slight strengthening of Russia. But now with the war practically conducted against the Ukraine even traditionally peaceful Western states clearly see the threat from the east. This war is not like it was on the Balkans in 1990âs when former Yugoslavian republics fought to obtain independence from Serbian autocracy but the war of old and well-known kind â on conquest another state. Russian aspiration not to defend its interests and citizens but to actually annex independent Ukraine considered by Russians as part of their former empire forced Europeans to see threat of this ambition as nobody could suggest where Russians would stop if they ever succeed in the Ukraine.
Another important reason why there is still conflict in the Ukraine is the conflict inside Western countries â twilight struggle between business world and politicians. We all read many times that in modern world politics is nothing more than an addition to economy, that business interests and only they dictate actual policy of any state and alliance. Whereas in some circumstances this statement could be considered as true in general it is not. Nobody now can underestimate great importance and influence held by economy of each state to its international interests but at the same time vast majority of citizens and politicians clearly understand that it is much better to pay now with some minor negative shifts in business than to pay later with blood and much more significant losses. No there is no strong opposition from corporations to anti-Russian political decisions of the West that clearly shows the fact that both business and political leaders found common ground in dealing with threats to European borders in the east and global instability caused by Russian hostile actions.
Since this year we can say for sure that fate of Russian Federation is no longer decided in Moscow but in the capitals of Worldâs most powerful states. In some way G20 with the exception of Russia itself could very soon become supranational governing body of the informal corporation to manage Russian state, its lands and resources.
Having considerably poor relations with all its neighbors and major World powers makes obvious the fact that all of them would be glad to participate in some way in the process of Russiaâs weakening and partition. At the same time just as it was with the Ottoman Empire there is some part of business and political circles especially in the western countries that are afraid of these undoubtedly positive processes.
These men consider that even gradual and planned decay of such a huge state to cause widescale shift of geopolitical balance and subsequent troubles in various fields of international relations. All these worries are completely groundless â until United States, NATO and European Union in the west and China together with Japan in the east are remain strong and solid there would be virtually no problems in dealing with weakening state lying between them. Yes, there could be some minor issues but in general Western and Eastern powers assisted by the United Nations are the pledge that there would be no unpleasant surprises if ever situation in Russia will get out of control due to economical collapse of internal civil unrest.
To evade this fortune Russia is now trying to turn itself eastward and face China together with minor Asian states. Uselessness of this event is obvious even for Russian officials who clearly specify that volume of trade with China for many years wonât be any close to pre-2014 with European Union. Chinese refusal in sponsoring ambitious gas pipeline âPower of Siberiaâ with price of construction in different sources varies up to 80 billions of dollars exposes even more the fallacy of moving east for Russian Federation. In fact right now Russia even has almost no trade goods interesting to Asian partners except resources, especially coal, ores, gas and timber but in middle-term period if only Chinese corporations will take control over major resource production facilities then actual trade balance of Russia would become negative and that is direct threat for the national security. Even vaunted military equipment and vehicle production wonât help Russia in that case â China is already producing quiet the same main battle tanks, fighters and assault rifles with significantly smaller costs and moreover it has for now more advanced technologies than Russia.
Even though it is now rather complicated task to predict future of Russian relations with Worldâs major powers we still can do some assumptions.
First â in the long term like 10 or 20 years Russia would still exist but with significant territorial loses de-facto and partially de-jure. Being rogue state is difficult especially if you have no real allies but instead possess significant amount of natural resources and territories conquered from each of neighbor states. Now Russia looks more or less solid and there could be barely seen borders of future divisions but this impression can be easily changed. Significant drop of peoplesâ income, lack of food due to countersanctions imposed by Russian government,
On the western border significant number of regions could be integrated in the European Union â either as new-formed states or as parts of existent. The first candidate is of course Kaliningrad exclave annexed by Soviet Union after the Second World War. In case of serious stability drop inside Russia this region could ask for European assistance and then just after the deployment of NATO troops it could be admitted to the European Union either as reunited part of Germany or as independent state. Similar fortune may be followed by Saint Petersburg â historically this city was the most European in all Russia and so its people could at first demand semi-independent status and then even proclaim independence and ask European Union for support if circumstances in Russia will once develop tragically.
Finland which is now threatened by possible Russian invasion is leaning more and more towards participation in NATO and once may get desire together with political will to return lands in Karelia ceded to Soviet Union after the latter invaded in 1939-1940 Winter War.
Regions of south-west like Kuban and North Caucasus could then declare independence with subsequent annexation of the Rostov and adjacent lands by Ukraine and forming some kind of Caucasus Federation on the rest of former Russian South and North Caucasian Federal Districts.
Being the âSick man of Europeâ is anxious itself but together with status of ârogue stateâ it becomes extremely dangerous for nationâs sovereignty. Unlike in the past now not only European powers could pretend on lands and resources of âSick manâ became ungovernable â Asian powers as well would be happy to restore justice as they see it. Japan for example could return Sakhalin and Kuril islands lost after the Japanese surrender in Second World War. Japan may also be interested in establishing some kind of semi-colony in the continent to provide its 126-million nation living space with low earthquake and tsunami alert.
Despite China lost Outer Manchuria to Russian Empire yet in 1860 according to the Treaty of Peking many people there consider this treaty as unequal and thus required to be reviewed. If once Russia will become weaker Chinese official may very possibly attempt to reunite their lands. But as it seems now nevertheless if even China is really aspiring to perform such scenario it would be very patient and cautious to prevent any risks to Chinese economy by possible sanctions and international market fluctuations.
Itâs not likely for the United States to directly annex any territories but in case of emergency there is possibility of voluntary establishment of pro-American regime in Chukotka, Kamchatka and adjacent regions. However this is really hard to predict exactly for now.
Second â facing east and relying on Chinese assistance was not the turn Russia decided to perform. Instead itâs just the only turn left for in and this one is rather destructive. China needs strong Russia even less than US or EU do. On the contrary, China had already started its no doubt well-planned program on drawing out millions of Central Asian workers from Russia to their homelands by establishment of numerous production facilities in Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan and at the same time signing with Russia memorandum on mutual support of workforce flow. This program would be able to replace vast majority of so required in Russia foreign workers with Chinese citizens completely loyal to Beijing and together with renting of millions of acres of land and numerous concessions Chinese government will be able to perform full control on Russian policies.
Third and probably most important â there is no other culprit of all these dramatic events above but Russia itself. Invasion in the Ukraine and annexation of Crimean Peninsula filled up the cup of Western states and forced them to react in the only way they were ready to assist country originally related by them to another sphere of interest. But very soon American and European leaders together with vast majority of their nations realized that assisting in the defending of Ukrainian borders today would make safe their own borders tomorrow. Thus this âUkrainian crisisâ as the war is sometimes shamefacedly named in media put Russia in the position of aggressor state before most of the world that had also significantly decreased its attractiveness for international investors and so left the country almost without relatively easy money to maintain and develop its infrastructure and production.
Like brutal suppression of Greek and Bulgarian rebellions by Ottomans in 1830âs forced European powers to recognize independence of small new-formed states and accept them as part of civilized Europe so as Russian insurgency in the Ukraine hypocritically called âRussian Springâ forced NATO and EU to start considering Ukraine that abruptly and ultimately turned westward as if not full-fledged European state than as to-be part of the European Union. Ukraine is no more considered as part of Russian sphere of influence and this is a serious blow to the geopolitical interests of Russia.
Economic sanctions that were to follow Russian invasion significantly weakened already barely standing upright economy of Russian Federation forcing it to revise the budget, launch scale cuts in social spending, healthcare and innovations and prepare itself to the decade of constant budget gap and recession.
So for now there is no question how Russia can evade being âSick man of Europeâ, thatâs impossible, but only how the major powers would act and when they will take enough from barely alive Russia and let it disappear from the modern history.
