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DIE KÖNIGE DER LÜFTE

http://adlerhorst.org/2015/01/adlerhorst-bulletin-2/

USA Riots for suspect eliminations by the policemen that started in November continued as well till the end of the year. At the same time there is another growing movement – supporters of two American cops killed in the New York City in retaliation for the honest service and loyalty to the United States. On the funerals of these two heroes participants showed their backs to the Bill de Blasio, mayor of the NYC who is well known for his support of anti-police actions and riots.

Such politicians as Mr. de Blasio are the major culprits in that there is now rift between parts of the society – between police enforcing the law and citizens who should be secured by this law. This situation is terribly fragile now, it is balancing between individual rights reflected by people and social rights and needs reflected by cops and thus this is wrong tactics to encourage pressure of one society’s part to another. Instead, such officials like de Blasio should direct their energy on empowerment of public peace, on enforcing laws and preventing individual rights from the demolition of the basis of our nation.

RUSSIA Sanctions imposed by US, EU and their allies on Russia together with self-harming Russian “counter-sanctions” together with crude oil prices drop are about to throw down the whole economy of Russia leaving country without currencies, qualified goods and with extremely poor population almost quarter of which even now has not enough money for food and housing. This is the result of Russia’s annexation of Crimean Peninsula and of the invasion in the Eastern Ukraine. Only Russians are guilty in these crimes, they started the war and they should be punished by the international community as aggressor state.

Now this conflict is in some kind of dead end with Ukrainians very slowly approaching terrorist-controlled lands of Donbass while Russians have fewer resources day after day to wage this expensive military conflict. But there is no time to chill out – Russians are still strong, they have nuclear weapons, more than 600 000 soldiers, oil and natural gas. And – they are loyal to Putin’s regime. They are ready to suffer, to starve, to have medicine and education budgets cut several times but to continue killing Ukrainians, burn their towns, to wage the war till the end. So one day, and this day is really near, leaders of the United States and European Union would have to ask each other – how to make this war end? The answer is here – invade and divide Russia. Sounds rough but there are really no other ways to establish European safety and to empower international order and international laws and customs that are now violated by Russians.

LIBYA Ongoing civil war in the country is still one of two major threats to European defense on the Mediterranean. No doubt that while this war started entirely in Libya and only by local powers this war could be stopped only with the international armed assistance to official democratic government or else there will be new point of instability in the world like Iraq without American soldiers.

KOREA Mutual statements on readiness for peace and unifications made by both South Korea and DPRK must not be considered as the sign of any real changes in the region. There is still covert war and this is still one of the world’s most armed places. Since the end of the Korean War peaceful declarations were made numerous times but words were only words without any political will to make them real agenda.

MIDDLE EAST Two armed conflicts are going side by side in the Middle East – fighting against Assad’s dictatorship and against terrorist hordes of ISIL. Both Syria and Iraq are now in a state of war, people struggle there for their rights, families, culture. To make sure that the only winners in these conflicts would be well-disposed to the Western war democratic opposition and Kurds, NATO lead by America should act more decisively, supply allies with weapons and military equipment, provide bombing and special forces operations and also to prevent third-party states like Russia from supplying ISIS and Assad’s regime with arms. US intervention made by air support saved thousands of lives in Kurdish city of Kobani and proved that without foreign support war in Syria and Iraq would last for dozens of years bringing untold suffering to civilians of the region. And not only that – weapons and especially skilled fanatical militants from inside these lands could relatively easily be moved to adjacent Turkey, to Cyprus and in the Europe bringing chaos there and spreading the war around the world.

NIGERIA Islamic militants of Boko Haram are active and capable of providing effective operations against Nigerian police forces and the army so as to control already conquered towns, villages and communications.

CRUDE OIL Significant drop in crude oil price on the world market occurred mostly unpredicted by any major research agencies or market makers. And while most of OPEC members like Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have prime cost of oil production as low as $2-$3 per barrel so they are not concerned much about this drop and are not going to reduce the oil production. Contrary, countries like Venezuela or especially Russia have relatively high prime cost and cannot afford themselves living years with so low crude oil prices without significant changes in their internal political and economical background. For Russia it is not common to initialize political changes peacefully so this factor together with the ongoing war against the Ukraine is adding considerable uncertainty in the prediction of the situation in various areas from Eastern Europe defense to global oil prices.

EBOLA There is still not found any relevant way to struggle with the epidemic outbreak in Western Africa. However this outbreak seems to be localized in Liberia, Sierra Leone, Guinea and Mali.

SUMMARY AND FORECAST The year of 2014 will go down in history as probably the most important after the end of the Cold War and the fall of Soviet Evil Empire. This is the year when occurred plenty of events that seemed impossible some time ago. Russia invaded “brotherly” Ukraine, Libya is again in the civil war, new strong state of Islamic terrorist appeared almost on the Mediterranean, whole new deadly epidemic and many others. 2014 probably was the border year – in next months we will have clear vision if it is the dividing line between relatively peaceful post-Cold War times and times of new Cold War and much more murderous wars against terrorism and dictatorships ever or not.

Global politics now is more fragmented than it had ever been in modern history, religious conflicts marching together with social as hundreds of years ago, economy is like a ship without steering wheel in the storm and it looks like nobody in the high offices knows really what should be done. Lots of politicians try to act as they acted years and years ago – but the times are changing, and what was a decent strategy in 1980s or in 2000s is nothing for now.

Why is it so? Balance of powers is changing, old leaders and giants are losing their impulse and new, hungry pretenders rushing forward with no remorse. Common civilians all around the world more and more feel their power to make difference, they want to place individual rights higher than social – American riots, Ukrainian Maidan revolution, Hong Kong protests, ISIL rising – all these events have in common the idea of people fighting for the things they see right, fighting against world’s majors, leaders and authorities.

Today, in the anniversary of approving of the of the Articles of Confederation we are very glad to announce the launch of Adlerhorst Research Center! Our center would provide reports and forecasts on world policies, social and military conflicts.

One of the main objects of our attention is Eastern Europe region together with Russia as due to the latest processes and conflicts this region became point of the hostile contact between Western and Eastern civilizations.

Adlerhorst Center truly believes that without forecast of ongoing events and research of past ones no one political doctrine could effectively respond challenges it facing in aspiring its progressive goals!