Vicky For The Win

If you live somewhere where there’s an election this year, it’s REALLY crucial for you to show up. Weird off-year elections aren’t an accident, it’s a deliberate attempt at disenfranchisement because the powers that be figured (correctly) that people wouldn’t even think to show up to the polls when there’s not a major election. Don’t fall into that trap. NJ and VA are both going to be electing new governors as neither incumbent will run again, and the state governorships and legislatures being run by republicans are part of the reason why the country has been gerrymandered to shit.

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Nicholas II of Russia For our 100th post, I’m going to do one of my personal top history crushes. [This mod is a huge sucker for the Romanovs; this may get long.]

Nicholas II was the last tsar of Russia, and part of the famous Romanov house. He was both a cutie and a downrightgood lookin’hunk of man. He also had a perfect beard. And I wish he were my papa, because he was a happy, adorable father as well. But his story is not a very happy one.

When he succeeded his father in 1894, he had very little experience; unfortunately for him, it showed. He thought expansion into Manchuria sounded fabulous, but Japan kicked his ass, resulting in riots in Russia. In January 1905, on ‘Bloody Sunday’, the army in St Petersburg shot at a crowd demanding radical reforms. People really started hating on Nick, and he pretty much was forced to grant a constitution and establish a parliament, the Duma. Yeah whatever, he still had a lot of control.

So WWI comes along and Nicky decides “HEY I’m the TSAR and I have POWER, so I’m going to directly command the Russian army!” Bad move, Nicho. This only lead to every failure that the military felt to be directly associated with him. His image was crying.

Nicholas stayed out of the public eye a lot [no surprise there], letting his wife, Alexandra, be the voice of the government. She wore the pants in their relationship, anyway. Russia was looking pretty awful by this time; people were broke and starving, and they had Alexandra and her BFF Rasputin to point their shaky fingers at.

In December 1916, Rasputin was [finally] killed, and a few months later huge riots and demonstrations had taken over St. Petersburg. The army finally said “screw you” and Nick had no alternative but to abdicate. A sad little provisional government was established in their place, later overthrown by the Bolsheviks.

Here’s where things get super sad for the former tsar. So the Bolsheviks decide to keep Nicholas and his family as prisoners, essentially. On July 17 1918, as anti-Bolsheviks approached Yekaterinburg, the family was moved to another room; they thought they were being put somewhere more safe because of the protesters. Just kidding! Here’s some executioners with revolvers pointed at you instead [this was probably Vladimir Lenin’s doing].

They say Nick’s last words were “you know not what you do.” He was the first one to die. His 4 girls survived the first hail of bullets; the sisters were wearing over 1.3 kilograms of diamonds and gems on their clothing, which served as freaking armor. The poor girls were then stabbed with bayonets and shot at close range in the head.

Let’s explore some of the most common types of cognitive biases that entrench themselves in our lives. Awareness is the best way to beat these biases, so pay careful attention to how they influence you.

1. The decoy effect. This occurs when someone believes they have two options, but you present a third option to make the second one feel more palatable. For example, you visit a car lot to consider two cars, one listed for $30,000 and the other for $40,000. At first, the $40,000 car seems expensive, so the salesman shows you a $65,000 car. Suddenly, the $40,000 car seems reasonable by comparison. This salesman is preying on your decoy bias – the decoy being the $65,000 car that he knows you won’t buy.

2. Affect heuristic. Affect heuristic is the human tendency to base our decisions on our emotions. For example, take a study conducted at Shukutoku University, Japan. Participants judged a disease that killed 1,286 people out of every 10,000 as being more dangerous than one that was 24.14% fatal (despite this representing twice as many deaths). People reacted emotionally to the image of 1,286 people dying, whereas the percentage didn’t arouse the same mental imagery and emotions.

3. Fundamental attribution error. This is the tendency to attribute situational behavior to a person’s fixed personality. For example, people often attribute poor work performance to laziness when there are so many other possible explanations. It could be the individual in question is receiving projects they aren’t passionate about, their rocky home life is carrying over to their work life or they’re burnt out.

4. The ideometer effect. This refers to the fact that our thoughts can make us feel real emotions. This is why actors envision terrible scenarios, such as the death of a loved one, in order to make themselves cry on cue and activities such as cataloging what you’re grateful for can have such a profound, positive impact on your wellbeing.

5. Confirmation bias. Confirmation bias is the tendency to seek out information that supports our pre-existing beliefs. In other words, we form an opinion first and then seek out evidence to back it up, rather than basing our opinions on facts.

6. Conservatism bias. This bias leads people to believe that pre-existing information takes precedence over new information. Don’t be quick to reject something just because it’s radical or different. Great ideas usually are.

7. The ostrich effect. The ostrich effect is aptly named after the fact that ostriches, when scared, literally bury their heads in the ground. This effect describes our tendency to hide from impending problems. We may not physically bury our heads in the ground, but we might as well. For example, if your company is experiencing layoffs, you’re having relationship issues or you receive negative feedback, it’s common to attempt to push all these problems away, rather than to face them head on. This doesn’t work and simply delays the inevitable.

8. Reactance. Reactance is our tendency to react to rules and regulations by exercising our freedom. A prevalent example of this is children with overbearing parents. Tell a teenager to do what you say because you told them so, and they’re very likely to start breaking your rules. Similarly, employees who feel mistreated or “Big Brothered” by their employers are more likely to take longer breaks, extra sick days or even steal from their company.

9. The halo effect. The halo effect occurs when someone creates a strong first impression and that impression sticks. This is extremely noticeable in grading. For example, often teachers grade a student’s first paper, and if it’s good, are prone to continue giving them high marks on future papers even if their performance doesn’t warrant it. The same thing happens at work and in personal relationships.

10. The horn effect. This effect is the exact opposite of the halo effect. When you perform poorly at first, you can easily get pegged as a low-performer even if you work hard enough to disprove that notion.

11. Planning fallacy. Planning fallacy is the tendency to think that we can do things more quickly than we actually can. For procrastinators, this leads to incomplete work, and this makes type-As overpromise and underdeliver.

12. The bandwagon effect. The bandwagon effect is the tendency to do what everyone else is doing. This creates a kind of groupthink, where people run with the first idea that’s put onto the table instead of exploring a variety of options. The bandwagon effect illustrates how we like to make decisions based on what feels good (doing what everyone else is doing), even if they’re poor alternatives

13. Bias blind spot. If you begin to feel that you’ve mastered your biases, keep in mind that you’re most likely experiencing the bias blind spot. This is the tendency to see biases in other people but not in yourself.

Bringing It All Together