So, the French government just got revoked.
What happened in the previous episodes?
French presidential elections are held in two rounds. Any candidate supported by at least 500 mayors can participate in the first round. The two candidates with the most votes then face off in a second round.
Twice, President Macron has been elected thanks to votes cast against his opponent in the second round: far-right candidate Marine Le Pen. Both times, Macron promised centrist policies (neither left nor right) but ultimately implemented very liberal policies benefiting primarily the wealthiest in the country. He also used far-right tactics to “pacify” strikes and social movements, like the Yellow Vests protests and the controversial pension reform.
Last June, European elections were held to elect new Members of the European Parliament, using a single-round voting system. In France, over 70% of voters participated in the 2022 presidential elections, but only around 50% turned out for the 2024 European elections.
And the result? A political earthquake.
For the first time, the far-right party came in first, securing 30% of the votes.
Following this shocking result, President Macron decided to dissolve the National Assembly. This is within the French President's powers, but no one understood why he did it—it seemed like political suicide. With the far-right's surge in the European elections, it was reasonable to expect them to gain ground in the legislative elections as well.
Yet Macron went ahead, and legislative elections were scheduled with less than three weeks’ notice.
Surprisingly, the left-wing parties managed to unite under one banner: the New Popular Front (NFP). This was no small feat, as these parties often clash over priorities—ranging from left-wing liberals and ecologists to communists and the “insubordinates”.
Since October 2023, the latter group had been outspoken in their defense of Palestine, which led to accusations of antisemitism and then earned the NFP labels like “far-left extremists” from the far-right, the media, and even the government.
It seemed hopeless. Everything appeared stacked against the left, and many feared the country would fall into the far-right's hands.
More than 70% of the eligible voters participated, a high turnout compared to the 2022 legislative elections (54%) and the 2024 European elections, especially considering the short notice and timing just before the summer holidays.
In the end, the far-right gained 142 seats (an increase of 53). However, the NFP surprised everyone by winning 193 seats (42 more than before) and emerging as the election's victors.
The new National Assembly looked like this:
193 seats for the left-wing (NFP)
166 seats for Macron's party
142 seats for the far-right
47 seats for the traditional right-wing party
This distribution left no single party with an absolute majority.
Under these circumstances, Macron was expected to appoint a Prime Minister capable of building a government that could pass laws in the National Assembly. Traditionally, the Prime Minister is aligned with the majority party in the Assembly.
Instead, Macron refused to name a left-wing Prime Minister, fearing such a government would be unstable due to the lack of an absolute majority. He delayed the decision until after the Olympic Games, and in early September, he appointed a Prime Minister from the traditional right-wing party—which holds a minority in the Assembly.
The first major test for this government was the 2025 budget. While the government initially proposed a strict austerity budget, the NFP successfully amended it to reflect their priorities. The government, having abstained from participating in the discussions, ultimately voted against the amended version, sending the budget back for further debate.
Then, rather than resubmitting a revised budget to the Assembly, the government decided to impose it unilaterally, as allowed by the Constitution. However, this move automatically led the government to engage its responsibility. Two days later (today), the opposition in the National Assembly responded by holding a “no confidence” vote, ultimately revoking the government and canceling the budget. (If no 2025 budget is passed, the 2024 budget will roll over by default.)
How is the far-right doing?
When the new government was formed in September, the far-right party chose not to immediately revoke it. Their strategy was to pressure the government into proposing laws aligned with far-right ideas. While initially successful, this approach backfired: the far-right quickly came to be seen as part of the establishment, losing their “outsider” status, which hurt their image.
Meanwhile, the far-right party is embroiled in a major legal scandal. They are accused of misusing public funds intended for hiring parliamentary assistants, instead diverting the money to party-related expenses (like bodyguards and so on). A verdict is expected in March 2025, and their leader, Marine Le Pen, faces the possibility of a 5-year ineligibility.
President Macron must now appoint a new Prime Minister to form a government. However, given his unpredictability, it’s possible he might try to keep the current government in place until he’s legally allowed to dissolve the Assembly again—one year after the last dissolution.
The left-wing is calling for Macron to resign, which would trigger new presidential elections. Due to their actual troubles with justice, anticipated presidential elections could also be an opportunity for the far-right party. While the National Assembly has the power to vote for the President’s resignation, the conditions to do so are difficult to meet.
And that’s the current state of French politics.
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