#wrong website

I’ll assume the population of powerlifters over time is described by p(t). Since genetics is modelled by a normal distribution, I thought that I’ll just match lifts so that the chance of getting a lift equal to 1 out of the total number of powerlifters is equivalent to the chance of a certain world record. So 1 - CFD(x) = 1/p(t). Solving for x(t) = inverse CFD(1-1/p(x)).

Then I asked chatgpt what a real statistician might use to model this and they said something about a Gumbel distribution so that’s nice. I got it to put them into a Python script to print out some graphs to compare them and had a look using some random good guesses at what things like the mean and standard deviation of powerlifting totals might be. This gives me some nice estimates although they are certainly underestimates.

Here is an example for the 105kg weight category:

This assumes that there are a maximum number of people interested in powerlifting, so it tails off at the top when we get close to that total number. This is an underestimate of about 100kg.

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