#weidman

From Tuesday:

Joey

October 14th, 2019

It's Octobr and the UFC's scheduling usually goes like this in my estimation:

Jan- New year, we're all excited, folks get injured, overpacked shows in December hurt the new year but we deal with it.

Feb- Injuries/cold means makeshift cards, people get mad.

March- Shows are a bit fatter, big title fights are coming around, people are excited.

April- The "set up" for the summer months, usually really good fight cards on paper with little to no name value.

May- Normally the "bad" PPV month, free events are good.

June- The last month before things get wild and wooly. PPV's tend to be damn good, free cards tend to be pretty balanced.

July- Everything has to be BIG so you get BIG PPV and then an event or two after the PPV that drag down the blocks average.

August- The end of the summer, injuries get heavy because of the seasonal change, focus is on prepping for November and December.

September- OH MY GOD EVERYBODY IS HURT! EVERYTHING IS REALLY WEIRD! THERE'S SO MUCH GOING ON!

October- The down month where they're scrapping and salvaging just to get to MSG. Shows are pretty much whatever they can put together without working too hard. Usually where they do some kind of weird Canadian card. The cards tend to bounce between "This is surprisingly good" and "I don't have the time or the energy for this".

November- IT'S MSG! IT'S LOADED! What about the rest of the month? Ah, okay then. Carry on.

December- The end of the year where they try to end with a bang. Normally a lot of drama, prep for 2020. We get fights announced for next year that usually top what we're being offered this year. Big PPV to end things on the right note.

This card is pretty much 100% October. You have a kind of weird but kinda good main event at the top of the bill, a really good yet weird co-main event under it, a really weird but kinda good HW fight and then a bunch of Northeast projects and prospects. If you remove the top three fights, finding the next good fight that is objectively good might depend on how you feel about Gillian Robertson vs Maycee Barber. Me personally I think you can do far, far worse than Barber vs Robertson and actually quite like the fight as a good test for Maycee Barber. After that? You have some highly touted prospects coming off losses (Manny Bermudez, Randy Costa, Boston Salmon), some guys off the Contenders Series trying to find their niche (Brendan Allen, Sean Woodson, Jonathan Pearce)  and a bunch of filler. It's kinda not bad filler though? Everything about this card is just weird, folks. Bare with.

Fights: 13

Debuts: Tanner Boser, Brendan Allen, Sean Woodson, Sean Brady, Diana Belbiţă, Ben Sosoli, Jonathan Pearce

Fight Changes/Injury Cancellations: (Zabit Magomedsharipov vs Calvin Kattar CANCELLED/Eric Spicely OUT, Kevin Holland IN vs Brendan Allen)

Headliners (fighters who have either main evented or co-main evented shows in the UFC): 5 (Greg Hardy, Jeremy Stephens, Yair Rodriguez, Chris Weidman, Joe Lauzon)

Fighters On Losing Streaks in the UFC: 1 (Joe Lauzon)

Fighters On Winning Streaks in the UFC: 6 (Dominick Reyes, Chris Weidman, Greg Hardy, Gillian Robertson, Maycee Barber, Kevin Holland)

Main Card Record Since Jan 1st 2017 (in the UFC): 24-15

Chris Weidman- 1-2 Dominick Reyes- 5-0 Jeremy Stephens- 3-3 (1 NC) Yair Rodriguez- 2-1 (1 NC) Greg Hardy- 2-1 Ben Sosoli- 0-0 Joe Lauzon- 1-3 Jonathan Pearce- 0-0 Gillian Robertson- 4-1 Maycee Barber- 2-0 Deron Winn- 1-0 Darren Stewart- 3-4

Fights By Weight Class (yearly number here):

Featherweight- 3 (52) Women’s Flyweight- 2 (31) Middleweight-  2 (40) Heavyweight- 2 (31) Welterweight- 1 (62) Light Heavyweight- 1 (39) Bantamweight- 1 (53)

Lightweight- (66) Women’s Strawweight- (26) Flyweight-  (15) Women’s Featherweight- (8) Women’s Bantamweight-  (18)

2019 Number Tracker

Debuting Fighters (33-55-1)- Tanner Boser, Brendan Allen, Sean Woodson, Sean Brady, Diana Belbiţă, Ben Sosoli, Jonathan Pearce

Short Notice Fighters (28-35)- Kevin Holland

Second Fight (52-34)- Randy Costa, Boston Salmon, Deron Winn

Cage Corrosion (Fighters who have not fought within a year of the date of the fight) (20-37-1)- Charles Rosa, Joe Lauzon, Daniel Spitz

Undefeated Fighters (35-37-2)- Dominick Reyes, Sean Woodson, Maycee Barber

Fighters with at least four fights in the UFC with 0 wins over competition still in the organization (11-8)-

Weight Class Jumpers (Fighters competing outside of the weight class of their last fight even if they’re returning BACK to their “normal weight class”) (29-20)- Chris Weidman, Manny Bermudez

Twelve Precarious Ponderings

1- Why is a New York vs New York fight taking place in Boston? I know that might not matter from a lot of folks but as the guy who grew up with boxers headlining in their home markets, this irks me.

2- I feel like this main event almost depends entirely on how you view Volkan Oezdemir as a fighter. The last time we saw Dom Reyes, he was given a really hard tough fight against Volkan Oezdemir in London. I don't think "robbery" is fair but I do think if you scored it for Volkan then you have a justifiable grumble about him losing that decision. What has gone under the radar is that Reyes did a tremendous job to adjust to what wasn't working and mix in more work to the body to keep it close and then the general rule of "win the third round, win the fight" wins out. I think there's no shame in a young prospect getting tested on his way up the ranks and managing to get by. You'd rather see warts now than in the middle of the first round of a title fight. Also Volkan Oezdemir is proving to be a pretty good quality 205er who even in his losses has moments of success. As such, I'm left to wonder if folks are a bit too harsh on a dude who iced Jared Cannonier, had no issues with OSP and remains the most exciting LONG TERM prospect at 205 lbs.

3- Is it too late for Chris Weidman? Despite the calls of folks to move up in weight, Weidman held off until seemingly all options were exhausted at 185 lbs. The fact of the matter and the unbearable truth is that Chris Weidman's style was based all on his durability and versatility simply fell apart when he needed it the most. He couldn't withstand the wars he was putting himself in at 185 lbs and his wrestling isn't as advertised anymore. At the same time, he still subbed Kelvin Gastelum, has a Hall of Fame worthy resume and enters a division where mid tier MWs are having breakout runs to title shots. Weidman can still crack, has a variety of offensive tools in his backpocket and in SPURTS he's still a good wrestler. Weidman's biggest problem for me as a wrestler has always been his lack of control once fights hit the turf but maybe cutting less weight will help. Then again Luke Rockhold didn't get much help in that regard either.

4- Here's how I'm beginning to feel about guys from 185 lbs going up to 205 lbs. If you're an athlete (Thiago Santos, even Anthony Smith to some degree) then it can work because the athletic barometer at 205 is better than HW but lowert han any other weight class. Guys who are fast at 185 lbs will remain fast at 205 lbs because that travels. They're also likely to hit a lot harder given the increase in weight. That said, if you're slow or clunky, no amount of weight cutting is going to fix that. Luke Rockhold simply looks and perhaps may just be a slow and clunky guy. Against Jan Blachowicz, he LOOKED like a heavier version of his usual self. What makes me worried about Chris Weidman and his chances at 205 lbs is that he's slow, clunky and kind of sort of broken. I don't think his body and his (lack of) speed will travel much at 205 lbs.

5- So who is hurt more by having to cut weight again for this fight, Yair or Jeremy Stephens? I kind of think it'll be Yair but I also saw him show up on two weeks notice to fist fight the Korean Zombie.

6- I really hope there's a chance, honestly and truthfully, that Joe Lauzon calls it quits win or lose. Lauzon feels like one of those guys who would be better suited in his personal life giving up the ghost and embracing the next phase.

7- This feels like the first real card to roll out the Contenders Series for season 3 so I'll break down who is whom and how they got here:

HW Ben Sosoli faces Greg Hardy- Sosoli is an Aussie kickboxer who made the MMA transition, fought on TUF and emerged on the DWCS in season 3. He had a "no contest" but was on his way to winning the fight before an eye poke (by him) ended the fight. Sosoli is being brought in to have a slugfest with Hardy.

LW Jon Pearce has a pretty crazy story. He was in a coma after getting jumped by somebody at his gym after hours. He recovered and fights like every southeastern dude who has ever fought in the UFC; basically scrapping when he wants to and wrestling out of trouble when he has to. I would say "He's the kind of guy who can give Joe Lauzon trouble" but I think at this point anybody with a working pulse gives him trouble.

FW Sean Woodson is REAL interesting. He took on a super prospect in his DWCS fight and struggled with the consistent wrestling----then he hit one of the cooler flying knees ever and scored a walk off second round KO. Dana even admitted that his finish was TOO good to not get signed despite the concerns he had about his wrestling.

MW Brendan Allen is your yearly "LFA has a middleweight champ and we gotta sign him" guy. He's accomplished-ish at 12-3 with some losses to good competition (Anthony Hernandez and Eryk Anders are both having solid runs). He's a violent kinda dude but I think he's a step below Ian Heinisch and Anthony Hernandez IE: he's kinda sketchy.

There’s the Rockhold we all know and love.

DUDE!  THE FUCK IS BIG DAN DOING?!

REALLY good fight for three rounds but around the midway point of the second round, Weidman hit that point where his defense was just shoving Jacare away or trying to pump a really stiff jab with nothing behind it. When you get Weidman going backwards, his limitations really stand out. He also didn’t shoot on Jacare, partially because I’m sure he was afraid of Jacare’s grappling but also because I think he just can’t anymore after years of serious injuries combined with his limited gastank. Jacare’s combos were pretty and while I loved the work Weidman was doing at the same time, it sort of felt like we were approaching that point of inevitability in the third round. Somebody was going down and it turned out to be Weidman in MSG.