Three Filing-Backed Ideas the Market May Be Underestimating
This week’s public picks show where operating proof is starting to outrun the story — with two additional names reserved for subscribers.
Tuesday, June 16, 2026
Market Tide Weekly
Reader Mode Summary
McGraw Hill (MH) Thesis: McGraw Hill looks like the steadier quality name in this week’s slate, with recent filings showing resilient recurring revenue, strong digital mix, durable adjusted EBITDA, and continued deleveraging. Risk: The main risk is that recent strength could prove too dependent on Higher Education demand and may not translate into cleaner bottom-line profitability if end-market conditions soften.
Viant Technology (DSP) Thesis: Viant stands out as a connected-TV and ad-intelligence platform whose recent filings show strong revenue growth, expanding profitability, and enough liquidity to support strategic product expansion. Risk: The main risk is that advertiser demand and connected-TV momentum may prove less durable in a weaker ad-spend environment, especially if the company’s newer product positioning does not create lasting differentiation.
MNTN Thesis: MNTN is the clearest example this week of growth turning into profitability, with filings showing strong revenue, high gross margins, positive operating income, positive net income, and positive operating cash flow. Risk: The main risk is that advertising demand can turn quickly, and future quarters still need to confirm that the current margin and profitability profile is durable rather than transitional.
This Week’s Setup
This week’s edition asks a simple question: which companies are moving from narrative toward proof? The most useful filings right now are not the loudest ones. They are the ones showing cleaner execution, better operating leverage, and a business model that looks more durable than it did a quarter ago. This week’s three public picks span education, ad software, and connected TV, but they share the same appeal: each is giving investors more evidence and less story.
Market Overview
The broader market still looks firm on the surface, but the internals are more selective than the headline indices suggest. Leadership remains concentrated, rate sensitivity is still high, and investors are getting less willing to pay full price for story alone. That is why filing-backed ideas matter more here: when the tape becomes narrower and more selective, the best smaller-cap setups are often the ones where improving margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet quality are starting to do the work that narrative used to do by itself.
Why This Week Matters
What stands out this week is how broad the signal is. These are very different businesses, but all three recent filing trails point in the same direction: better operating quality. In a market that still rewards presentation, that matters. The edge is not finding the noisiest story. It is finding the filings that make resilience easier to underwrite.
The Three Names on My Radar
Each of these names represents a different version of the same setup. McGraw Hill looks like the steadier quality compounder. Viant looks like a platform story gaining strategic depth. MNTN is the clearest example of growth turning into profitability and cash generation. Together, they offer a useful snapshot of what filing-backed strength looks like right now.
Why These Three Picks
These three names belong together because each reflects a different version of the same signal: a business moving from narrative toward proof. McGraw Hill offers the steadier quality-compounder profile, Viant offers a platform story with growing strategic depth, and MNTN offers the clearest case of growth converting into profitability and cash generation. Together, they form a useful cross-section of what filing-backed operating strength looks like in a more selective market.
| Ticker | Operating Quality Signal | Balance‑Sheet Strength | Durability of Thesis |
|--------|---------------------------|-------------------------|-----------------------|
| MH | Strong recurring revenue; resilient digital mix; improving margins | Clear deleveraging momentum; term‑loan prepayments; net leverage 2.9x | Higher‑ed demand still key; durability improves as recurring mix grows |
| DSP | Expanding contribution ex‑TAC; improving profitability; connected‑TV scale | Large cash reserves; no long‑term debt; strong liquidity | Depends on advertiser budgets; durability tied to TVision + AI differentiation |
| MNTN | High gross margins; positive operating + net income; strong cash flow | Clean post‑IPO structure; $213.9M cash; no borrowings | Must prove margin durability; depends on ad‑spend stability |
6. Company Sections
1.     Public Pick 1 — MH / McGraw Hill Inc
Overview: MH earns a public-pick slot because the recent filing trail supports a steadier kind of operating story than most names in this week’s field. The February 2026 10-Q and companion 8-K point to a business with strong recurring and digital revenue mix, resilient gross margins, meaningful adjusted EBITDA generation, and a balance sheet that is improving through ongoing deleveraging rather than relying on a single one-time repair. Higher Education remains the main near-term growth engine, but the broader appeal of MH is that it increasingly reads like a durable education-platform operator with better visibility, stronger cash-generation capacity, and less structural fragility than the market often assigns to legacy-content businesses. For this edition, MH represents the lower-drama proof-of-quality name in the public trio: not the fastest story, but one of the clearest examples of operational resilience becoming easier to underwrite.
Structural Signals: The strongest structural signal for MH remains the shift away from a heavily leveraged private-equity framing toward a steadier public-company operating profile, with recent filings showing that balance-sheet repair is no longer the only thing holding the story together. The Q3 FY2026 filing record suggests a business that now has enough recurring revenue strength, digital mix, and deleveraging momentum to be evaluated more on durability than on financial rescue. Just as important, the January 2026 governance 8-K adds a smaller but still relevant supporting signal: formalizing the chief accounting officer role and principal accounting-officer transition suggests continued institutionalization of the finance function rather than disorder. Taken together, these filings move MH further out of a restructuring narrative and into a monitoring phase where execution quality, reporting consistency, and capital discipline matter more than balance-sheet survival.
Financial Signals: The financial case for MH is built on a combination of resilient margins, strong recurring-revenue mix, and visible deleveraging rather than on headline net-income strength alone. In the quarter ended December 31, 2025, revenue increased to $434.2 million from $416.5 million, recurring revenue rose to $357.5 million, digital revenue reached $363.7 million, and gross profit expanded to $370.3 million, or 85.3% of revenue. Adjusted EBITDA reached $135.9 million, or 31.3% of revenue, while the net loss narrowed materially to $20.2 million from $52.9 million a year earlier. Just as important, cash generation and debt reduction continue to support the quality of the story: management highlighted strong operating cash flow over the first nine months, $200 million of term-loan prepayments during the quarter, and net leverage of 2.9x as of December 31, 2025. The raised FY2026 guidance in the companion earnings-release 8-K reinforces the interpretation that management believes the company’s current operating profile is strengthening, even if investors should still watch how much of that stability continues to be driven by Higher Education and whether cleaner bottom-line profitability follows the improvement in cash generation and adjusted margins.
Risk Profile: The main risk is that MH’s steadier profile could prove less durable if the current strength in Higher Education fades, enrollment-linked demand softens, or institutional and school spending becomes less supportive. The filings also leave open the question of mix dependence: recurring and digital revenue are clear strengths, but investors still need to see that those advantages can support cleaner bottom-line profitability rather than only adjusted-margin resilience. A second risk is execution risk around the next phase of the story, including leadership transition, AI and digital-product rollout, and maintaining customer retention while expanding product breadth. Finally, although leverage has improved materially, MH is still carrying enough debt that capital discipline and continued deleveraging remain important to the thesis; if operating momentum weakens, the market could quickly become less forgiving of a business still completing its financial-profile transition.
Forward Scenarios: If MH can sustain Higher Education momentum, preserve its strong recurring and digital revenue mix, and continue to convert operating consistency into cash generation and debt reduction, the stock has a credible path to being re-rated as a steadier education-platform compounder rather than a legacy-content name still shadowed by its capital structure. The more constructive scenario is that raised FY2026 guidance proves achievable while margins remain resilient and deleveraging continues, which would make the current operating profile look more durable than transitional. The weaker scenario is that the recent improvement proves too concentrated in one end market, digital and AI-led product momentum fails to broaden the growth base, or bottom-line profitability does not improve as cleanly as adjusted metrics and cash flow suggest. For now, MH remains attractive because the filings support a business becoming easier to underwrite, even if the next leg of confidence still depends on proving that this steadier profile can persist through a less favorable demand backdrop.
2.     Public Pick 2 — DSP / Viant Technology Inc
Overview: DSP earns a public-pick slot because the recent filing trail supports a real platform-strength story rather than a one-quarter ad-tech pop. The March, April, and May 2026 8-K sequence, together with the Q1 2026 10-Q, points to a company with strong connected-TV exposure, improving profitability, large cash reserves, and a more ambitious strategic posture built around ViantAI, Outcomes, and the TVision acquisition. What makes DSP compelling for this edition is that the business now reads like more than just another demand-side ad-tech platform: it is increasingly positioning itself as an advertising-intelligence company using proprietary data, measurement, and attention signals to deepen differentiation. For this week’s public trio, DSP is the higher-beta proof-of-execution name — still exposed to advertiser-demand risk, but showing enough growth, cash strength, and strategic coherence to justify close attention.
Structural Signals: The strongest structural signal in DSP’s filing set is that the company is moving away from a plain demand-side-platform identity toward a broader advertising-intelligence model built on proprietary data, measurement, and activation. The March 2026 earnings-release 8-K established early momentum around ViantAI, Outcomes, and connected-TV scale; the April 2026 TVision acquisition filing then made that shift more concrete by adding proprietary attention, co-viewing, and in-room-presence signals; and the May 2026 earnings-release and Q1 2026 10-Q reinforced that the business is still converting this strategic expansion into real operating progress rather than just narrative. Just as important, DSP’s structure remains unusually supportive for an ad-tech name of this size: the balance sheet carries substantial cash, no long-term debt, and enough liquidity to pursue product development and integration without obvious financial strain. The main structural caution is that the company still has to prove that TVision and AI-led positioning translate into durable competitive advantage rather than simply a sharper investor story, but the filing trail now clearly supports reading DSP as a platform becoming strategically deeper, not just temporarily stronger.
Financial Signals: DSP’s financial case is built on a combination of strong connected-TV exposure, expanding contribution economics, and unusually solid liquidity for an ad-tech company of its size. The March 2026 8-K established a strong baseline with fourth-quarter 2025 revenue of $110.1 million, Q4 contribution ex-TAC of $64.6 million, Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $24.7 million, and $191.2 million in year-end cash, while the May 2026 8-K and Q1 2026 10-Q confirmed that momentum was carrying forward into 2026. In the first quarter ended March 31, 2026, revenue rose 25% year over year to $88.5 million, gross profit reached $36.4 million, contribution ex-TAC increased to $50.3 million, adjusted EBITDA rose 81% to $9.8 million, and the company ended the quarter with $185.7 million in cash and cash equivalents. Cash generation also improved, with positive operating cash flow in Q1 2026, even though capitalized software development, stock repurchases, member tax distributions, and a tax receivable agreement payment still pulled total cash modestly lower. Taken together, the filings support the view that DSP is not just growing, but also showing improving profitability, real balance-sheet strength, and enough financial flexibility to pursue product expansion and integration without obvious strain.
Risk Profile: DSP’s main risk is not balance-sheet fragility but execution and durability risk inside a highly competitive ad-tech market. The filings make clear that the company still depends on healthy advertiser budgets, continued connected-TV adoption, and sustained customer demand for its platform, so a weaker advertising environment could slow both growth and margin expansion quickly. A second risk is strategic proof: management is asking investors to believe that TVision, ViantAI, and Outcomes will deepen differentiation, but the harder question is whether those products and acquisitions actually create durable measurement, data, and activation advantages rather than simply a more compelling narrative. The 10-Q also leaves room for structural caution around working-capital management, noncontrolling interests, and the tax receivable agreement liability, which together mean DSP’s otherwise strong liquidity should not be mistaken for a frictionless financial profile. In short, DSP looks financially solid, but the thesis still depends on the company proving that stronger product positioning can hold growth and profitability together through a less forgiving ad-spend cycle.
Forward Scenarios: If DSP can keep translating connected-TV adoption, advertiser demand, and product expansion into stronger contribution economics and margin flow-through, the stock has a credible path to being re-rated as a strategically differentiated advertising-intelligence platform rather than a smaller ad-tech name still fighting for attention. The more constructive scenario is that TVision integration improves measurement and targeting enough to deepen platform stickiness, while ViantAI and Outcomes continue broadening the company’s relevance across advertiser budgets and supporting another year of top-line growth with adjusted EBITDA margin expansion. The weaker scenario is that advertiser budgets become less supportive, connected-TV demand normalizes faster than expected, or the TVision and AI narrative fails to produce measurable competitive advantage, leaving DSP exposed as a company with a better story than moat. For now, DSP remains attractive because the filing trail shows real operating progress and strategic ambition at the same time, even if the next leg of confidence still depends on proving that this stronger platform profile can hold through a tougher ad-spend environment.
3.     Public Pick 3 — MNTN / MNTN Inc
Overview: MNTN makes this week’s public slate because the recent filing record shows a company moving beyond early post-IPO narrative into a cleaner operating story. The Q3 2025 and Q1 2026 reporting sequence points to a Performance TV platform that is not only still growing, but also translating that growth into stronger margins, positive operating income, positive net income, positive operating cash flow, and a balance sheet that now looks materially less fragile than it did before the IPO. For this edition, MNTN is the clearest example of a business where the question has shifted from whether the model can work to how durable the recent improvement may prove to be.
Structural Signals: The strongest structural signal in MNTN’s file set is the combination of a repaired post-IPO capital structure and a business model that appears to be scaling more cleanly. The Q3 2025 filing showed the balance sheet being reset through the IPO and related conversions, with liabilities dropping sharply and stockholders’ equity turning positive, while the Q1 2026 filing showed that the operating model continued to improve after that reset rather than merely benefiting from one-time capital-markets cleanup. Customer growth also matters here: trailing-twelve-month active Performance TV customers increased meaningfully, suggesting the platform’s adoption story is broadening. The main structural caution is that MNTN is still an early-cycle public company in ad-tech and connected TV, which means execution, measurement credibility, and product relevance still need to keep proving themselves each quarter.
Financial Signals: The financial case for MNTN strengthened materially in the most recent filings. In Q1 2026, revenue reached $73.7 million, gross margin expanded to 81%, operating income improved to $9.6 million, and net income reached $8.8 million, while adjusted EBITDA rose to $16.3 million and operating cash flow was positive at $7.1 million. Liquidity remained a clear strength, with $213.9 million in cash and cash equivalents and no borrowings outstanding. The earlier Q3 2025 filing helps confirm that this did not emerge from nowhere: revenue, gross margin, and operating income were already improving, and the IPO meaningfully cleaned up the capital structure. The result is a public company that now looks far more financially credible than a typical newly listed growth story, even though investors should still keep an eye on stock-based compensation, normalized growth presentation, and whether margin gains remain durable.
Risk Profile: The biggest risk is that MNTN still operates in an advertising category where demand can soften quickly if budgets tighten or marketers become less willing to experiment with connected-TV spend. The filings also point to the usual ad-tech pressures around competition, measurement reliability, privacy constraints, and platform execution. A second risk is quality-of-growth interpretation: management emphasizes adjusted and divestiture-normalized framing in its earnings materials, so future quarters need to confirm that profitability and margin gains are not overly dependent on presentation choices. Finally, insider filings reviewed so far do not signal unusual selling, but they do reinforce a continuing need to watch equity-based compensation and cumulative dilution as the company matures as a public issuer.
Forward Scenarios: If MNTN can keep converting customer growth into strong gross margins, positive operating income, and real cash generation, it has a credible path to being re-rated as a more durable connected-TV platform rather than a recently public growth story still living on promise. The more constructive scenario is that management’s Q2 and full-year 2026 guidance proves achievable without a meaningful deterioration in efficiency, which would reinforce the argument that operating leverage is becoming repeatable. The weaker scenario is that advertiser demand softens, growth decelerates more sharply than expected, or margin improvement proves less durable once the easiest post-IPO cleanup benefits roll off. For now, MNTN remains attractive because the filing trail supports the idea that the model is improving, even if that view still depends on continued execution.
What I’m Watching
From here, I’m watching three things: whether margin improvement keeps holding up beyond the easiest comparisons, whether advertising demand remains strong enough to support the ad-tech and connected-TV names, and whether the broader market starts rewarding a wider set of quality small-cap ideas instead of keeping leadership concentrated in the same narrow group. If those conditions hold, this week’s picks should have more room to work than the market is currently pricing in.
What Changed Since Last Week
·       Improved: The strongest improvement this week is the continued visibility around filing-backed operating quality, especially in names where margin profile and balance-sheet strength are becoming easier to underwrite.
·       Deteriorated: The broader market backdrop remains less forgiving for narrative-heavy names as leadership stays concentrated and investors remain sensitive to rate and valuation pressure.
·       Unchanged: The core edge still comes from filings that support resilience, not from the loudest story in the market.
What We’re Watching Next Week
·       Next week, I’ll be watching whether updated filings or company commentary reinforce the margin durability showing up in this week’s public picks.
·       I’ll also be watching whether advertising demand remains strong enough to support the connected-TV and ad-tech names without weakening the current profitability narrative.
·       Finally, I’ll be watching whether the market starts rewarding a broader set of quality small-cap and mid-cap names instead of keeping leadership concentrated in the same narrow areas.
Beyond the Public Picks
There are also two additional names in this week’s research stack that I’m not publishing in the public edition. One is a structurally dense special situation where ownership, filings, and corporate actions may matter as much as the operating story. The other is cleaner on the surface, but the real question is whether recent execution is strong enough to support a deeper re-rating case. Those are the kinds of setups I reserve for subscribers, where there is room to unpack the nuance instead of forcing them into a shorter public format.
If you want the two additional email-subscriber picks, get the Thursday Deep Dive early when applicable, and get structural signals before they reach wider circulation, subscribe to Market Tide Weekly.
Share Layer
If this week’s edition was useful, share it with someone who follows small-cap filings or market structure.
Closing Note
For now, the most useful setups are still the ones where the filings are doing more of the talking than the narrative. If that remains true over the next few weeks, I think this market will keep offering opportunities in places that have not yet become consensus favorites.
Required Disclosure
Market Tide Weekly is for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing in this newsletter constitutes investment advice, a solicitation to buy or sell any security, or a guarantee of any outcome. Past performance of featured picks is not indicative of future results. All investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should conduct their own due diligence and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Market Tide Weekly and its operators may hold positions in securities discussed.
Works Cited
McGraw Hill, Inc. "Management’s Discussion and Analysis." Form 10-Q. McGraw Hill, Inc., Feb. 2026.
McGraw Hill, Inc. Earnings release. Form 8-K. McGraw Hill, Inc., Jan. 2026.
Viant Technology Inc. Earnings release. Form 8-K. Viant Technology Inc., Mar. 2026.
Viant Technology Inc. Form 10-Q. Viant Technology Inc., Q1 2026.
MNTN, Inc. Form 10-Q. MNTN, Inc., Q1 2026.
MNTN, Inc. Form 10-Q. MNTN, Inc., Q3 2025.
